MATCH PREVIEW AND TEAM SELECTION - Round 17

[Demonland 66,672]

THE SAVING GRACE by Whispering Jack

 I have a feeling that whoever it was at the AFL who framed the draw for the Round 17 fixture might have a good sense of humour. After kicking off proceedings on Thursday night with an absolute ripper of a game between two teams that might well end up facing each other again on the last Saturday in September, the rest of what's on offer is pretty much rubbish. 

The game at Adelaide Oval involving a resurgent Collingwood could be of interest now that the Magpie faithful have declared their team a sure thing to make the finals but most of the games in the round are complete mismatches on current form. Of course, when the draw was prepared at the end of last season, it was difficult to predict exactly how the teams would be faring in the midst of winter in the year to come or that the top eight would be virtually set in stone barring some sort of major calamity. Still, you have to admit, there is a dull, colourless and boring feel about the eight match ups on show from Friday night to Sunday evening.

However, there is one game that shapes up as a possible exception among all of the drudgery, a game that presents itself as a possible bookend to the opening game of the round and I'm not talking here of the potential farce at the Gabba starting at 4.40pm. Rather, I allude to Sunday's clash at Etihad Stadium between St Kilda and Melbourne, which unlike their last meeting 11 weeks ago, is a Saints home game. The contest shapes up as the AFL's saving grace for the weekend.

The two sides are sitting among a group of four teams on seven wins and three games behind eighth placed North Melbourne but with very little chance of making the finals unless they win most (if not all) of their remaining games and the Kangaroos' free fall continues. Neither outcome is particularly likely to result in a change to the makeup of the current top eight.

The Saints hit a high a fortnight ago when they fought out a gutsy win against Geelong (who themselves have put in some flakey performances of late) but have been disappointing in their more recent outings, losing to lowly Gold Coast by 40 points and coming close to joining the Demons last week as an ignominious loser to the depleted Bombers of 2016. They also have suffered some real poundings in their interstate games this year. 

Melbourne on the other hand, rebounded in Darwin last week against the Dockers after losing consecutive games to the finals bound Swans and Crows. They seem to be enjoying the better form of this week's contestants.However, that was exactly the case when the teams met earlier in the year and the Dees started out as firm favourite to break their then 12 game losing streak against the Saints which stretches all the way back to the 2006 Elimination Final when Nathan Jones' career was in its infancy. 

It turned out that St Kilda was the superior side at their last meeting despite Jesse Hogan's almost single handed seven goal haul up forward. Max Gawn had a rare down day in the ruck against Tom Hickey, the Saints defence and midfield were dominant with their pace and the Demons lacked the poise and discipline to hold the Saints' playmakers. After being in doubt to play all week, Nick Riewoldt was virtually untouchable producing a team killing virtuoso performance. There were no excuses from the Melbourne camp but it was conceded that having an unbalanced and seemingly tired-looking outfit on the park after a six day break was unhelpful. 

So what will Melbourne produce to make up for that lacklustre effort from earlier this season? The answer to that lies in the changes to the team's structure since that last performance. The defence in particular is more streamlined and far less stodgy - they will not be outpaced as they were last time - and the leakage down back has been stemmed. The forward line won't be relying on Hogan alone. Jack Watts, Jeff Garlett and Dean Kent are all dangerous in front of goal. Max Gawn will be eager to prove that he is deserving of his 2016 reputation as one of the two top ruckmen going around and the midfield, which is now ranking third in contested possessions will relish the contest. And someone will be assigned to make sure that Riewoldt is not permitted to roam around the stadium doing as he pleases.

Melbourne to win by 29 points.

THE GAME

St Kilda v Melbourne at Etihad Stadium Sunday 17 July 2016 at 3.20pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall  St Kilda 90 wins Melbourne 118 wins 1 drawn

At Etihad  St Kilda 7 wins Melbourne 3 wins

Past five meetings St Kilda 5 wins Melbourne 0 wins 

The Coaches Richardson 4 wins Roos 0 wins 

MEDIA

TV - Channel 7 Fox Sports 3 Live at 3.00pm

RADIO - Triple M 3AW

THE BETTING St. Kilda to win - $2.00 to win Melbourne to win - $1.82

THE LAST TIME THEY MET 

St. Kilda 20.15.135  defeated Melbourne 15.6.96 in Round 6, 2016  at Etihad Stadium

Melbourne started favourite to beat its long-running St Kilda hoodoo and got off to a solid start when it led by almost three goals halfway through the opening term. However, the wheels fell off as the Saints took over in the midfield and ran the Demons ragged. They looked slow and indecisive and but for a great individual effort from Jesse Hogan and some accurate kicking for goal, would have gone down by a far greater margin. 

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

B: Sam Frost, Tom McDonald, Neville Jetta
HB: Jayden Hunt, Oscar McDonald, Jack Grimes
C: Christian Petracca, Bernie Vince, Dom Tyson
HF: Jeff Garlett, Jack Watts, James Harmes
F: Aaron vandenBerg, Jesse Hogan, Dean Kent
FOLL: Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Jack Viney
I/C: Angus Brayshaw, Matt Jones, Ben Kennedy, Mitch White
EMG: Tomas Bugg, Billy Stretch, Josh Wagner

IN: Angus Brayshaw 

OUT: Billy Stretch (omitted)

ST KILDA

B: Jarryn Geary, Sean Dempster, Dylan Roberton
HB: Jack Newnes, Sam Gilbert, Leigh Montagna
C: Maverick Weller, David Armitage, Jack Billings
HF: Blake Acres, Nick Riewoldt, Nathan Wright
F: Tim Membrey, Josh Bruce, Darren Minchington
FOLL:  Tom Hickey, Luke Dunstan, Jack Steven
I/C:   Jade Gresham, Daniel McKenzie, Sebastian Ross, Jack Sinclair 
EMG: Luke Delaney,Cameron Shenton, Eli Templeton

IN: Jack Billings, Jack Sinclair

OUT: Luke Delaney (omitted), Shane Savage (concussion)

SAM THE STATS MAN'S ROUND UP - 2016 TO DATE

BRAYSHAW Angus MFC 3 games, 3 goals, CSFC 5 games, 2 goals - brilliant youngster has had his season blighted by injuries including concussion issues that kept him out for several weeks.

BUGG, Tomas MFC 14 games, 2 goals - hard and driven, he has proven a real pest when running with opponents but his form has tapered off a little lately.

DAWES, Chris MFC 4 games, 1 goal, CSFC 3 games, 7 goals - was hampered for some time by a calf injury and has failed to impress on return.

DUNN, Lynden MFC 4 games,1 goals, CSFC 4 games, 0 goals - suddenly found himself out of favour and banished to Casey where he was injured. Performed well there when he returned.

FROST, Sam MFC 10 games, 4 goals, CSFC 3 games, 0 goals - the experiment as a forward failed and he is now settling down as a defender where his pace is outstanding. 

GARLAND, Colin MFC 6 games, 0 goals, CSFC 7 games, 1 goal - like Dunn has found himself on the outer in the overhaul of the team's defence but has been pushing for selection with the Scorpions.

GARLETT, Jeffrey MFC 11 games, 20 goals, CSFC 2 games, 0 goals - not as consistent as last year but proved a fortnight ago how dangerous he can be near goal.

GAWN, Max MFC 15 games, 12 goals - declared his ambition to be among the leading AFL ruckmen early and has made his case. Is close to All Australian selection. 

GRIMES, Jack MFC 1 game, 0 goals, CSFC 9 games, 5 goals - has been diligent in his application and was very good on return to the AFL in Darwin last week with 32 possessions at 90% efficiency.

HARMES, James MFC 13 games,12 goals, CSFC 1 game, 0 goals - improving beyond expectation and now reveling in a new role down back.  

HOGAN, Jesse MFC 15 games, 38 goals - hard working, talented and strong, the youngster is well on his way to becoming an elite key forward in the competition. 

HULETT, Liam CSFC 10 games, 15 goals - developing tall forward who would not be far off  a promotion. 

HUNT, Jayden MFC 12 games, 1 goal, CSFC 1 game ,1 goal - the dashing defender continues to improve rapidly from week to week and is surely the next Demon rising star nominee.

JETTA, Neville MFC 14 games, 0 goals - steady, reliable and experienced, he gives the defence the extra steel it needs.

JONES, Matthew MFC 6 games, 0 goals, CSFC 3 games, 0 goals - pacy footballer who had a good start to the season, suffered a setback with injury after four games but has returned to form with a vengeance. 

JONES, Nathan MFC 15 games, 9 goals - shows unrelenting strength and his leadership is often underrated on the AFL scene.

KENNEDY, Ben MFC 14 games, 12 goals, CSFC 1 game , 0 goals - has put in some excellent performances as a small forward who occasionally runs around the middle of the ground. 

KENNEDY-HARRIS, Jay CSFC 2 games, 2 goals - broke down with a severe hamstring injury in Casey's first game and lasted one more after he returned before injury struck again.

KENT, Dean MFC 14 games, 21 goals - with his injury woes behind him, Kent is becoming a valuable member of the emerging Demon forward set up.

KING, Max ® CSFC 10 games, 5 goals - the club is being patient with the tall developing forward/ruckman but, after three years at the club, needs to show more at Casey if he is to hold a spot on the club's lists.

KING, Mitch CSFC 1 game, 0 goals - the big man broke down with an ACL injury early in his opening game down at Casey.

LUMUMBA, Heritier MFC 5 games, 0 goals, CSFC 1 game, 0 goals - returned from post season surgery in resulted in hot and cold form and more lately has been sidelined with concussion issues. 

 McDONALD, Oscar MFC 8 games, 0 goals, CSFC 5 games, 0 goals - slowly developing youngster who is getting games into his legs as a key defender.

McDONALD, Tom MFC 15 games, 1 goal - strong key position player who has produced some outstanding performance i

MELKSHAM, Jake - suspended as a result of the ASADA supplements investigation and CAS decision.

MICHIE, Viv ® MFC 3 games, 1 goal, CSFC 7 games, 4 goals - has shown sparkling form in the VFL but failed to show enough to keep his spot when promoted.

NEAL-BULLEN, Alex MFC 2 games, 1 goal, CSFC 9 games, 5 goals - another who has excelled with the Scorpions but has yet to grab his opportunities at the highest level.

NEWTON, Ben MFC 2 games, 1 goal, CSFC 9 games, 6 goals - came back from a long injury lay off and pushed for promotion to the AFL but was soon back at Casey.

OLIVER, Clayton MFC 10 games, 4 goals, CSFC 2 games, 0 goals - the hard nosed teenager who won a NAB Rising Star nomination on debut in Round 1 is being nicely nursed through his debut season. 

PEDERSEN, Cameron MFC 7 games, 5 goals, CSFC 3 games, 2 goals - a regular forward/relief ruck fixture in the early part of the season, but has been missing after a drop in form followed by injury.

PETRACCA, Christian MFC 10 games, 7 goals, CSFC 3 games, 3 goals - has yet to set the world on fire but is showing some very clear glimpses of star potential.

SALEM, Christian MFC 7 games, 1 goal, CSFC 1 game, 0 goals - was starting to shows some great skill and class before succumbing to a thyroid problem from which he is only slowly recovering.

SMITH, Joel  ® CSFC 5 games, 1 goal - the young rookie who switched sports from basketball was showing promising signs with the Casey Scorpions before an groin injury struck.

SPENCER, Jake  CSFC 8 games, 6 goals - seems destined to be the understudy to Max Gawn. Has dominated at VFL level but it seems the selectors have not really favoured having two big men in the line up.

STRETCH, Billy MFC 10 games, 2 goals, CSFC 2 games, 0 goals - continues to make an exciting progression, showing speed and evasive skills.

TERLICH, Dean CSFC 11 games, 5 goals - remains well down back of the queue for selection at AFL level.

TRENGOVE, Jack MFC 3 games,1 goal, CSFC 8 games, 5 goals - made a hard earned return to senior ranks after more than two years out. Still rusty as one would expect. 

TYSON, Dom MFC 14 games, 8 goals - has played some excellent football on his return after a few troughs in form last year. 

VANDENBERG, Aaron  MFC 8 games, 5 goals, CSFC 1 game, 0 goals - the big-bodied midfielder's progress was stalled by an ankle injury and is only now returning to last year's form 

VINCE, Bernie MFC 14 games 5 goals - an important player in the Demon line up who recently re-signed in a great show of faith

VINEY, Jack MFC 14 games, 7 goals - started like a house on fire as a hard, smart and tough on baller and has come back to the field a little recently but is still very dangerous. 

WAGNER, JOSH ® MFC 11 games, 0 goals - mature aged rookie has been a revelation in defence with his smart play and neat delivery of the football. 

WATTS, Jack MFC 15 games, 30 goals - is having his best season yet as a dangerous forward who also pinch hits in the ruck when Max takes a rest.

WEIDEMAN, Sam CSFC 8 games,17 goals - has shown potential as a future key position forward as is being given plenty of time to develop in the VFL.

WHITE, Mitch ® MFC 1 game, 0 goals, CSFC 11 games, 2 goals - the hard working defender was finally rewarded with a second time elevation off the rookie and impressed in Darwin.

[praha 10,440]

We should beat them. Like the Freo match, coming up against a side and coach we can't beat, at a stadium we can't win at.

Surely we won't lose to this mob again? They play Etihad very well and this match comes at the worst possible time after a NT trip.

IMO we're blitz them in the first and then hold out. Although, a Saints fightback could kill us.

[Nasher 33,187]

Can't wait for this match. We're a better side, but we're competing against Etihad as much as St Kilda.

Come on MFC, between last year and this years games, we have had more than enough practice against these jokers to now show them who we really are. Get the job done!

[Lucifers Hero 37,395]

We had them beaten in rnd 11 last year with 45secs on the clock.  Hubris, and a comedy of errors by Gawn (tapped the ball forward rather than drop it at his feet), Viney, Cross and Toumpas allowed them an easy goal. So we know we can beat them, at Etihad. 

Despite AA form since that game, Max has not been able to get the job done vs StK in the two games since at either the G or Etihad.

The whole team needs to be desperate to redeem the 2015 rnd 11 calamity.  Max especially will want to redeem that game and lowering his colours to Hickey earlier this year. 

Max will bring it home!! 

Edited July 13, 2016 by Lucifer's Hero

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Cant, sorry just cant... believe we are favorites again after losing 10 years in a row to this mob.......Riewoldt will be injured again all week.....(thus deterring us from playing anyone on him)...I hope Max smashes them.....

[Ricky P 757]

We simply cannot keep losing to this mob. I reckon we'll [censored] them. Come on Dees - it's time.

[JV7 2,339]

15 & sunny Sunday any chance they'll open the roof ? 

[Lord Travis 10,298]

We need to win this match and tick off another hoodoo broken. There's no excuse to lose to a team we are clearly better than twice in one season.

Just get it done Dees!

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,491]

29 minutes ago, JV7 said:

15 & sunny Sunday any chance they'll open the roof ? 

I think they only open the roof for the early afternoon games.

Couldn't work out why they closed it for our first meeting. It was 24 and beautiful.

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,491]

13 minutes ago, Lord Travis said:

There's no excuse to lose to a team we are clearly better than twice in one season.

I don't think we're clearly better than St Kilda. I would say we're very even. What makes you say we are clearly better?

Further, St Kilda will probably finish higher on the ladder than us as their draw gets easier and don't travel anymore, while our draw gets much tougher and we still have 2 more trips.

[—coach— 3,473]

7 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I think they only open the roof for the early afternoon games.

Couldn't work out why they closed it for our first meeting. It was 24 and beautiful.

THE AFL has made a concession with its Etihad Stadium roof policy, declaring the roof will be shut for day games if the contrast between the sun and shade inside the ground is deemed to be a problem for players, coaches and spectators. 

afl.com.au

[What 18,810]

I am going to be the pessimist this week.  I dont think we will win and I think they might run us off our feet sadly.  We just never beat St Kilda, let alone at Etihad. Coming back from a draining Darwin match with a very young team playing a side that loves Etihad and has great leg speed doesnt bode well.

Happy for someone to talk me off the ledge.

Edited July 13, 2016 by Petraccattack

[sue 8,492]

42 minutes ago, --coach-- said:

THE AFL has made a concession with its Etihad Stadium roof policy, declaring the roof will be shut for day games if the contrast between the sun and shade inside the ground is deemed to be a problem for players, coaches and spectators. 

afl.com.au

The biggest problem is for the TV broadcast. Hard to adjust the aperture  for half the shot in bright light and the rest in shadow.  Can't say how it is for the players or even for a spectator doomed to be there, but it is bloody awful on TV,

[binman 39,194]

53 minutes ago, --coach-- said:

THE AFL has made a concession with its Etihad Stadium roof policy, declaring the roof will be shut for day games if the contrast between the sun and shade inside the ground is deemed to be a problem for players, coaches and spectators. 

afl.com.au

So if it is overcast the roof will be open?

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,491]

37 minutes ago, binman said:

So if it is overcast the roof will be open?

They've never opened the roof for a 3:20 game. So no.

[DemonOX 8,551]

1 hour ago, Petraccattack said:

I am going to be the pessimist this week.  I dont think we will win and I think they might run us off our feet sadly.  We just never beat St Kilda, let alone at Etihad. Coming back from a draining Darwin match with a very young team playing a side that loves Etihad and has great leg speed doesnt bode well.

Happy for someone to talk me off the ledge.

Don't be stupid P there will be a fair few of us on the ledge with u including me!!

we never beat these barzdards and it shiiits me to no end. 

Edited July 13, 2016 by DemonOX

[Binmans PA 26,589]

I think Max can be the difference. If he's beaten by Hickey again we'll lose. If he dominates him like he has some other opponents, our mids will eventually get on top.

Make sure the half forwards bring that press and we should win. I'm not confident the Darwin game won't be used as a reason for a loss here though.

Edited July 13, 2016 by AdamFphlebeb

[Ricky P 757]

3 hours ago, Petraccattack said:

I am going to be the pessimist this week.  I dont think we will win and I think they might run us off our feet sadly.  We just never beat St Kilda, let alone at Etihad. Coming back from a draining Darwin match with a very young team playing a side that loves Etihad and has great leg speed doesnt bode well.

Happy for someone to talk me off the ledge.

I actually think we've taken a step up since the bye. Something about the way Watts spoke in that post-Adelaide interview made me think that something has clicked and the boys are sick of development/improvement and just want to win...starting from now. I think we're going to have an exciting end to the year.  

[CBDees 3,162]

56 minutes ago, Ricky P said:

I actually think we've taken a step up since the bye. Something about the way Watts spoke in that post-Adelaide interview made me think that something has clicked and the boys are sick of development/improvement and just want to win...starting from now. I think we're going to have an exciting end to the year.  

The Tom MacDonald interview was in the same vein. I think that the Dees are going to surprise a few at this end of the season (and win a few games that we are not meant to)!

[monoccular 16,508]

6 hours ago, --coach-- said:

THE AFL has made a concession with its Etihad Stadium roof policy, declaring the roof will be shut for day games if the contrast between the sun and shade inside the ground is deemed to be a problem for players, coaches and spectators. 

afl.com.au

So....roof shut if raining (or threatening) or if sunny?  Only open if cloudy sans rain? Surely it would be in the AFL's character to just make up rules on the run!

5 hours ago, sue said:

The biggest problem is for the TV broadcast. Hard to adjust the aperture  for half the shot in bright light and the rest in shadow.  Can't say how it is for the players or even for a spectator doomed to be there, but it is bloody awful on TV,

I do find it amazing that technology that can send stuff to Jupiter (and 40+ years ago allegedly put man on the moon - sceptics beg to differ) and all other sorts of stuff cannot conceive something that can make adjustments to light and dark, sun and shade.  Amazing. 

Edited July 13, 2016 by monoccular

[sue 8,492]

55 minutes ago, monoccular said:

So....roof shut if raining (or threatening) or if sunny?  Only open if cloudy sans rain? Surely it would be in the AFL's character to just make up rules on the run!

I do find it amazing that technology that can send stuff to Jupiter (and 40+ years ago allegedly put man on the moon - sceptics beg to differ) and all other sorts of stuff cannot conceive something that can make adjustments to light and dark, sun and shade.  Amazing. 

Would require a fair amount of computing power. But possibly not far off.  Certainly doable off-line already I'm sure.

[Moneider96 1,045]

7 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I think they only open the roof for the early afternoon games.

Couldn't work out why they closed it for our first meeting. It was 24 and beautiful.

Was very, very, very windy tho.

[Bombay Airconditioning 5,996]

3 hours ago, Ricky P said:

I actually think we've taken a step up since the bye. Something about the way Watts spoke in that post-Adelaide interview made me think that something has clicked and the boys are sick of development/improvement and just want to win...starting from now. I think we're going to have an exciting end to the year.  

Beating the Saints, Suns, Carlton, Port (away) and one of Eagles, Hawks, Cats would be massive.

[Red and Bluebeard 2,049]

54 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Beating the Saints, Suns, Carlton, Port (away) and one of Eagles, Hawks, Cats would be massive.

That would be good. Flogging all of them by 10+ goals, especially the last three ... now that would be massive! Dream bigger dreams!

[Ricky P 757]

2 hours ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Beating the Saints, Suns, Carlton, Port (away) and one of Eagles, Hawks, Cats would be massive.

Yeah winning 5 would be handy. Would be even better if North go 2 and 5. Then we'd be in the finals!