R14-23: The Run Home

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

2 Eagles TIO Stadium - prob a loss but the ground advantage is actually with us
13 Bombers MCG - unbelievably we have beaten them in 4 of the last 5, they are officially the only side we own
17 Lions MCG - should win
14 Saints MCG - should definitely atone on our G for the one we threw away
4 Magpies MCG - we were well in this a few weeks ago, I call it 50/50
11 Kangaroos MCG - an incredible 13 game losing streak, can we repeat what we have just done to the cats?
9 Bulldogs Etihad Stadium - already beat them comfortably this year
16 Blues MCG - should win
1 Dockers Domain Stadium - no chance
6 Giants Etihad Stadium - a decent chance, we smashed them for a half, this is in Melbourne, and they have injuries now

4 games against the top 6
2 games against 9th-11th
4 games against the bottom 6

Returning players (EDITED for today's update)

Jay Kennedy-Harris
Jack Fitzpatrick Adductor Test
Colin Garland Hand Test
Jesse Hogan Hamstring tightness Test
Ben Newton Concussion Test

Christian Salem Hamstring 3-4 weeks
Aaron vandenBerg Hamstring 3-4 weeks
Dean Kent Hamstring 5 weeks
Sam Frost Toe 5 weeks
Jack Grimes Thumb 6-8 weeks

What's your prediction?

Edited June 23, 2015 by Curry & Beer

[Scipio 5,868]

Best case scenario for me, we win 7 more:

Bombers, Lions, Saints, Magpies, Bulldogs, Blues and Giants.

Doubt it would happen but I regard the rest of the games as very tough and not much likelihood of a win... but hey, we just beat the Cats at Skilled so who knows what could happen.

[Wiseblood 24,636]

I'm purely looking at this from a worse case scenario, but if we were to win 4 of those final 10 games then we have 8 wins for the season. That doubles our win tally from last year and gives us a good platform to build on for 2016, and it also shows potential recruits we are headed in the right direction.

Obviously I would like to win more than that but I'm looking at it purely from the minimum we need to achieve to call the season a success.

[DistrACTION Jackson 6,486]

I think we will win 5 more, leaving us with 9 wins for the season.

[dazzledavey36 48,976]

Not a bad assessment actually considering if we have a good injury run and We get our players back.

Those game we HAVE to win no excuses.

[Scipio 5,868]

I'm purely looking at this from a worse case scenario, but if we were to win 4 of those final 10 games then we have 8 wins for the season. That doubles our win tally from last year and gives us a good platform to build on for 2016, and it also shows potential recruits we are headed in the right direction.

Obviously I would like to win more than that but I'm looking at it purely from the minimum we need to achieve to call the season a success.

I think this is a very likely scenario and as a worst case, it's not too bad at all.

[Wiseblood 24,636]

I think this is a very likely scenario and as a worst case, it's not too bad at all.

Exactly. I loved the win from the weekend and can see that we are heading in the right direction, but we also need to remember that we are still a vulnerable side and we are still prone to lapses during games. I still think we are capable of winning another 6-7 games, but I think we can be satisfied (not necessarily happy) with another 4 wins. Heading into 2016 knowing we doubled our wins will help set the expectation of 10-12 wins and possibly finals from there if we are good enough.

[Young Dee 1,303]

I like it!

Bombers:

Lions: a game we should win!

Saints: so soon? its pay back time!

Magpies: So soon? its payback time!

Bulldogs: mmm good chance

Blues:

Giants: mmm hopefully the cracks will be deep by then

Would be pretty disappointed if we couldn't manage another 4 wins. (provided our injury list doesn't get worse)

That takes us to 8 wins - if someone offered that to me at the start of the year I would have taking it in a heart beat.

Wins:

Bombers 15pts

Lions 40pts

Saints 20pts

Blues 40pts

Maybe: Pies, Dogs and Giants

Edited June 23, 2015 by Young Dee

[Ethan Tremblay 28,469]

Would be happy to win 4; 8 for the season is good given where we have come from. It's a realistic amount. Less then 4 would be disappointing.

[TeamPlayedFine39 8,178]

Impossible to predict with any confidence and a lot will be determined by the players we get back from injury and how our young players cope in the later rounds of a long and brutal season. Getting Salem, vandenBerg and Garland back is important if we're to win the so-called 'winable' matches in the run home.

Eagles @ TIO Stadium: Eagles are no where near as good as the media claims them to be; but are far better than opposition supporters give them credit for. (probable loss)

Bombers @ MCG: Desperately out of form and shot for confidence; if we play with intensity and physicality we should win. (probable win)

Lions @ MCG: They knocked us off last year and will be confident to do it again. If we come to play and are physical and ruthless, we should win. (probable win)

Saints @ MCG: At home and with a few players back, we should win and win well. If the Geelong match was spurned on by the loss the previous week, we will hopefully be breathing fire against the Saints. (probable win)

Magpies @ MCG: I really rate their up and coming list, however it is a very young one. Our only chance is if they start to tire after a very strong first half of the year. (probable loss)

Kangaroos MCG: I don't think they have the personal or the game plan to win finals. They do however have the personal and gameplan to beat up on younger, weaker teams. (probable loss)

Bulldogs @ Etihad Stadium: Tough ask at Etihad where they play very well. They will be out to get us from the first bounce. We're every chance if we can pressure them as we did four weeks ago... but I really rate the Bulldogs. (probable loss)

Blues @ MCG: They'll think they're a chance here and will be preparing for a red hot go at us. If we can get on top early we should account for them. Can't let a team like this get any early confidence. (probable win)

Dockers @ Domain Stadium: Oh dear... (probable loss)

Giants @ Etihad Stadium: They've never feared us, even in their early days. A lot will depend on whether they're still a shot for the finals by then. They were very average on the weekend but are overflowing with fast and efficient ball carriers. Not liking this at Etihad either. (probable loss)

By my count that's 4 more wins and 6 more losses but, as I said, it's way too early to predict anything. I can pretty much guarantee we'll lose one we're expected to win and win one we're expected to lose... otherwise we'd all be much more successful gamblers!

[Jaded No More 58,579]

Injuries will be telling, as will how the bodies of our young players hold up as the season wears on

I expect us to beat Lions, Carlton and St Kilda at the G.

All other games are 50/50 at best with WC & Freo certain losses.

If we finish with 8 wins that is a 100% improvement on last year, and gives us a great platform to build on for 2016 where we should aim for 12 wins and a top 8 finish.

[Jaded No More 58,579]

Dockers @ Domain Stadium: Oh dear... (probable 15 goal loss)

Fixed

[hells bells 2,022]

What if the Cats win was a catalyst and we manage to get over the Eagles in Darwin?

There is no reason why we couldn't win 9 in a row. Up to the Freo game.

Not saying it'll happen but it's nice to dream...

[FireOath 290]

Just on the Dockers game, it could actually turn into a win. Remember what happened the last 2 years they played the Saints? They rested some big stars and got pumped for it, the game didn't matter for Freo as they were going into finals so they could afford to throw a game. Being the second last round it could happen to us.

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

Don't assume we won't have more injuries.

I think we can win seven or so of them. The losses to St Kilda, Collingwood and Port (all where the loose man killed us) will come back to bite us.

[Young Dee 1,303]

Returning players

Jesse Hogan

Jack Fitzpatrick Adductor Test

Ben Newton Concussion Test

Colin Garland Hand 1 week

Christian Salem Hamstring 3-4 weeks

Aaron vandenBerg Hamstring 3-4 weeks

Dean Kent Hamstring 5-6 weeks

Sam Frost Toe 6 weeks

Jack Grimes Thumb 6-8 weeks

What's your prediction?

That injury list is a week old so hopfully:

Hogan - ready

Garland - ready

Fitzy - ready

Vanders - 2-3 (ready for Bombers?)

Salem - 2-3 (ready to destroy bombers again?)

Kent/Frost - can't really expect anything from them for the season which sucks!

Edited June 23, 2015 by Young Dee

[PaulRB 5,985]

If we are really on the improve and can stabilize in our form shown vs Geelong we should win 5 more with a chance vs Magpies, Kangas and Giants.

[Seraph 1,714]

10 wins, come from nowhere and make the finals.

It'll never happen but just imagine

[Deeoldfart 7,800]

If the first post had been a week earlier, who would have predicted a Melbourne win at Kardinia Park, on a major milestone day for a Geelong great? Not me, so I'll stay out of this one!

Edited June 23, 2015 by Deeoldfart

[Sir Why You Little 34,682]

Its all up to the players. We are 2 games out of the 8 with 10 games to go

Positions 7-14 could go anywhere. Nobody expected a convincing win at The Cattery

A few more dominant games from big Max Gawn and things could change radically

Watched the replay last night. Gawn and Spencer were dictating who got first use...

[Pates 9,537]

Where we are at as a side there are very few "should wins". Basically only poor interstate teams are one's I would put into that category. So much of it is above the shoulders and I only now feel that's being improved.

Eagles TIO Stadium - Loss, but we need to continue this momentum and make damn sure it's a competitive loss. We've played the ground more, we should know it and be better prepared for the conditions but the Eagles are a good side and should win this.
Bombers MCG - the only team we've had the wood over, especially at this time of year. I reckon the boys will be setting themselves for a big one this game. 50/50
Lions MCG - the only game I'd call a "should win". Interstate team, have a crap year, if we've at least played well against the bombers I reckon we'll be in the right frame of mind.
Saints MCG - I would hope the boys are eying this one off in the distance as a "statement match". Given where both teams are at, it's at the G, we should have the advantage. But for me it's 50/50 with maybe us in front a touch.
Magpies MCG - Probably loss, but like the Essendon game the boys should set themselves for it. Gave them a good run the last time and failure to mark a free man in our forward line cost us big time.

Kangaroos MCG - Probably loss. Kangas a so hot and cold, but this is one I would dearly love to check off the list as a win.
Bulldogs Etihad Stadium - 40/60 in dogs way. Etihad stadium, I reckon their best is a bit better than our best.
Blues MCG - Similar to the Saints, seems like we should have the edge but against any victorian side we need to be very wary.
Dockers Domain Stadium - Loss, probably painful loss.
Giants Etihad Stadium - depends more on the Giants than us. They may well be tiring by the end of the year. They're best is better than ours (painful as it is to say it) 50/50 depending on both teams interest

I'm expecting to get about 3-5 wins from the rest of the year. We will probably drop a a game or two that we look at as one we should win but I reckon we'll nab 1 or two against "better" opposition. That gives us 7-9 wins for the year which is where I had us at the start of the year.

Edited June 23, 2015 by Pates

[Willmoy1947 3,808]

Just a thought but we would have a bloody good side available going into finals if the momentum was to be maintained by the present group.

I would quietly start the build from this week possibly. Melbourne has done this miraculousness? before.

GO DEES

[Deeoldfart 7,800]

Big picture ... let's dream of 1987, without the nightmare.

[Ted Lasso 16,928]

Ill stick to my pre season prediction 6-8 wins and being right in a lot of games for a long time is a good step forward

[deeflog 679]

What is taking frost so long to recover from his toe injury?