Match Preview and Team Selection - Round 16

[Demonland 72,217]

SITTIN' ON THE DOCK OF A DARWIN BAY by The Oracle

Saturday night was once reserved as the one night of the week when you would go out to the movies but these days the cinema houses have competition. For example, the opportunity presents itself this week for a night of excitement in front of the television set watching a blockbuster game between the Paul Roos coached Demons and Ross Lyons' Purple Haze played at the country's Top End in front of an estimated crowd of hopefully more than seven thousand.

That would be about 20% of the number that turned out to watch last Sunday's game between Carlton and Collingwood but you can bet that Melbourne President Glenn Bartlett won't be complaining or cheekily asking the AFL for compensation like Eddie McGuire. Instead, he'll either be counting his money thanks to the Northern Territory's generous sponsorship of the Demons' two match journey into its neck of the woods or, even more likely, he'll be fast asleep bored out of his brain as a result of a festival of two and a half hours of dour, defensive football.

And at the end of that game, because the Dockers are more experienced and have players who possess superior skills, there won't be any stirring renditions of "Its a Grand Old Flag" to wake us all up.

In fact, I'm finding it difficult to see where the Demons can expect any joy out of their next three week horror stretch of Fremantle, Geelong and Port Adelaide with Hawthorn to come a fortnight later. In their last two matches, they have blighted their performances with some abysmal passages of play where they leaked goals like a sieve and that was against the Kangaroos and the Bulldogs which are both inconsistent sides. What awaits now are a trio of ruthless top four contenders whose players work hard whether or not the ball is in their possession. They rarely make mistakes or turn the ball over.

Melbourne needs to work harder, work better and make the right decisions. We can only hope the players can return to the level of intensity that they produced for a large percentage of their last game in the Territory when they worked Port Adelaide to the limit. Unless they do so, things might get ugly.

THE GAME

Melbourne v Fremantle at TIO Stadium Saturday 5 July 2014 at 7.40pm (AEST)

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall: Melbourne 13 wins Fremantle 18 wins

At TIO Stadium: Melbourne 0 wins Fremantle 0 wins

Last Five Years: Melbourne 1 wins Fremantle 4 wins

The Coaches: Lyon 0 wins Roos 0 wins

MEDIA

TV Fox Sports 3 at 7:30pm AEST (live)

Radio - SEN ABC ABC Grandstand

THE BETTING

Melbourne $7.50 to win Fremantle $1.09 to win

LAST TIME THEY MET

Fremantle 20.13.133 defeated Melbourne 5.8.38 at the MCG in Round 21, 2013

Dean Kent kicked Melbourne's first goal of the game two minutes into the second quarter by which time the Dockers were already well in front. Nothing much changed after that and the rest was a procession.

TEAMS

MELBOURNE

B: Colin Garland, James Frawley, Lynden Dunn

HB: Jack Grimes, Tom McDonald, Jeremy Howe

C: Jordie McKenzie, Bernie Vince, Jack Viney

HF: Jack Watts, Cameron Pedersen, Matt Jones

F: Rohan Bail, Chris Dawes, Max Gawn

FOLL: Mark Jamar, Nathan Jones, Dom Tyson

I/C: Dom Barry, Dean Kent, Christian Salem, Dean Terlich

EMG: Alex Georgiou, Daniel Nicholson, Luke Tapscott

IN: Tom McDonald, Jordie McKenzie

OUT Neville Jetta (suspension), Daniel Nicholson (omitted)

FREMANTLE

B: Lee Spurr, Zac Dawson, Paul Duffield

HB: Tendai Mzungu, Luke McPharlin, Garrick Ibbotson

C: David Mundy, Ryan Crowley, Danyle Pearce

HF: Cameron Sutcliffe, Chris Mayne, Colin Sylvia

F: Hayden Ballantyne, Matthew Pavlich, Stephen Hill

FOLL: Aaron Sandilands, Nat Fyfe, Nick Suban

I/C: Michael Barlow, Zac Clarke, Anthony Morabito, Lachie Neale

EMG: Hayden Crozier, Clancee Pearce, Tommy Sheridan

IN: Luke McPharlin, Anthony Morabito

OUT: Matt Taberner (hamstring), Clancee Pearce (omitted)

THE STATISTICS: ROUNDS 1 to 15 by Sam the Stats Man

Melbourne has doubled the number of wins it achieved in 2013 but that's coming off a low base. It also has a much improved percentage - the team hasn't been belted about as it was in 2012/13 and things would have been much better on that front but for one major breakdown early in the season against the West Coast Eagles.

The club has suffered from injury. The lack of fit ruckmen and key position players in the early stages of the season hurt it badly. Mitch Clark's retirement and Jesse Hogan's lingering back injury devastated its attacking stocks. Things certainly could have turned out differently for Melbourne had they been available on a regular basis.

BAIL, Rohan MFC 14 games, 6 goals. Continued his excellent recovery from recent concussion issues and has played every game to date.

BARRY, Dom MFC 1 game, 0 goals, CFC 8 games, 3 goals. Came back from some early season injury issues to break into the Melbourne team as a sub last weekend.

BLEASE, Sam CFC 11 games, 6 goals. Continues struggle to gain promotion despite some good recent form with the Scorpions.

BYRNES, Shannon MFC 6 games, 5 goals, CFC 2 games, 3 goals. Season ending injury has surely put an end to his career at Melbourne.

CLARK, Mitch (retired)

CLISBY, Mitch CFC 6 games, 1 goal. Returned to the VFL at the weekend after several weeks lay off with injury.

CROSS, Daniel MFC 13 games, 1 goal. Was having a stellar season until he broke his leg against the Kangaroos.

DAWES, Chris MFC 10 games, 15 goals. Added size, grunt and physical presence to the forward line on his return from injury.

DUNN, Lynden MFC 14 games, 3 goals. In close to All-Australian form and a revelation in defence.

EVANS, Michael MFC 3 games, 1 goal, CFC 7 games, 4 goals. Struggling for the necessary consistency to gain AFL selection.

FITZPATRICK, Jack MFC 3 games, 0 goals, CFC 9 games, 8 goals. Hasn't kicked on from the promising form he showed last year.

FRAWLEY, James MFC 13 games, 12 goals. Moved forward early in the season to cover the club's shortage of talls in that area and has experienced mixed success.

GARLAND, Colin MFC 7 games, 0 goals, CFC 3 games, 1 goal, CFC DL 1 game, 0 goals. Had a slow start after pre-season surgery but is starting to show some of his old form.

GAWN, Max MFC 4 games, 2 goals, CFC 5 games, 0 goals. Big man on a long learning curve.

GEORGIOU, Alex ® MFC 7 games, 0 goals, CFC 6 games, 0 goals. Locked into the VFL after some good early signs in defence for Melbourne.

GRIMES, Jack MFC 14 games, 3 goals. Showing some good composure as co-skipper with Nathan Jones.

HARMES, James ® CFC 8 games, 1 goal, CFC DL 1 game, 1 goal. Some promising signs from the rookie midfielder.

HOGAN, Jesse (injured - yet to play)

HOWE, Jeremy MFC 14 games, 2 goals. Has relished playing in defence where he had been very solid.

HUNT, Jayden CFC 6 games, 1 goal, CFC DL 1 game, 0 goals. Season curtailed by a back injury.

JAMAR, Mark MFC 9 games, 5 goals, CFC 3 games, 2 goals. Has returned to near his career best after a slow start coming back from injury.

JETTA, Neville ® MFC 9 games, 1 goal, CFC 2 games, 2 goals. Has been in career best form but will sit out the game on Saturday night due to suspension.

JONES, Matthew MFC 14 games, 3 goals. Goes about his work with the minimum of fuss.

JONES, Nathan MFC 14 games, 6 goals. Still the heart and soul of the club.

KENNEDY-HARRIS MFC 11 games, 7 goals, CFC 3 games, 1 goal. Had a good start to the season but tired a little and was sent to Casey where he did well last week.

KENT, Dean MFC 5 games, 3 goals, CFC 3 games, 4 goals. Developing player who has shown some good signs.

KING, Max ® CFC 3 games, 0 goals, CFC DL 1 game, 2 goals. Coming back from a long injury lay off.

McDONALD, Tom MFC 13 games, 0 goals. Improving key defender who was missed last week.

MCKENZIE, Jordie MFC 4 games, 0 goals, CFC 6 games, 1 goal. Struggled for games but did well as a tagger once he fought his way back into the team only to incur a suspension which kept him out last week.

MICHIE, Viv MFC 2 games, 0 goals, CFC 7 games, 2 goals. Battling for senior selection after missing some games through injury.

NICHOLSON, Daniel MFC 1 game, 0 goals, CFC 9 games, 2 goals. Took a long time to break into the team and was fortunate to do so on the back of the McKenzie suspension.

PEDERSEN, Cameron MFC 14 games, 11 goals. One of the club's biggest improvers under Roos.

RILEY, Aidan MFC 3 games, 2 goals, CFC 7 games, 0 goals. Has shown some glimpses after a delayed start in rehab from serious injuries incurred last year.

SALEM, Christian MFC 9 games, 6 goals, CFC 3 games, 3 goals. Showing some promising signs in his first season.

SPENCER, Jake MFC 5 games, 0 goals. Held the big man department early but his season is now over due to a long term injury.

STRAUSS, James CFC 10 games, 1 goal. Battling at Casey.

TAPSCOTT, Luke CFC 8 games, 4 goals. In much the same boat as Strauss.

TERLICH, Dean MFC 12 games, 2 goals, CFC 1 game, 0 goals. Hasn't attained last year's high standards but is still thereabouts.

TOUMPAS, Jimmy MFC 4 games, 2 goals, CFC 10 games, 2 goals. Disappointing with slow development but has time on his side.

TRENGOVE, Jack MFC 2 games, 0 goals, CFC 2 games, 1 goal. A broken navicular ended his season early.

TYSON, Dom MFC 14 games, 9 goals. Has had a great initiation in his first year at the club.

VINCE, Bernie MFC 14 games, 9 goals. Is having an excellent season and is one of the best acquisitions for the club in years.

VINEY, Jack MFC 12 games, 4 goals. Coming along nicely.

WATTS, Jack MFC 14 games, 11 goals. Seems more comfortable this year and continues his slow improvement.

WESTRUPP, Maia CFC DL 9 games, 0 goals. International rookie still learning the ropes in the development league.

[Bay Riffin 1,475]

TEAMS

MELBOURNE

B: Colin Garland, James Frawley, Lynden Dunn

HB: Jack Grimes, Tom McDonald, Jeremy Howe

C: Jordie McKenzie, Bernie Vince, Jack Viney

HF: Jack Watts, Cameron Pedersen, Matt Jones

F: Rohan Bail, Chris Dawes, Max Gawn

FOLL: Mark Jamar, Nathan Jones, Dom Tyson

I/C: Dom Barry, Dean Kent, Christian Salem, Dean Terlich

EMG: Alex Georgiou, Daniel Nicholson, Luke Tapscott

IN: Tom McDonald, Jordie McKenzie

OUT Neville Jetta (suspension), Daniel Nicholson (omitted)

FREMANTLE

B: Lee Spurr, Zac Dawson, Paul Duffield

HB: Tendai Mzungu, Luke McPharlin, Garrick Ibbotson

C: David Mundy, Ryan Crowley, Danyle Pearce

HF: Cameron Sutcliffe, Chris Mayne, Colin Sylvia

F: Hayden Ballantyne, Matthew Pavlich, Stephen Hill

FOLL: Aaron Sandilands, Nat Fyfe, Nick Suban

I/C: Michael Barlow, Zac Clarke, Anthony Morabito, Lachie Neale

EMG: Hayden Crozier, Clancee Pearce, Tommy Sheridan

IN: Luke McPharlin, Anthony Morabito

OUT: Matt Taberner (hamstring), Clancee Pearce (omitted)

Roos doesn't tinker much with the team. You would think an in form Tapscott could push ahead of McKenzie. even a fit Blease can't get an emergency spot.

Looks like an honest but slow team.

[What 18,810]

For some reason i feel we are a sneaky chance in this game

[Dee Fan 3,247]

Roos doesn't tinker much with the team. You would think an in form Tapscott could push ahead of McKenzie. even a fit Blease can't get an emergency spot.

Looks like an honest but slow team.

i thought that JKH would be a chance this week after his good form last week in the VFL.

[Scoop Junior 3,472]

Late changes?

That team looks too tall against a Dockers line-up with only two key defenders, two ruckmen, a tall forward (Pavlich) and a medium-tall forward (Mayne).

Also factor in Darwin where conditions will likely be hot, humid and slippery and not likely to favour big forwards.

I would have preferred more runners in that team and less talls.

We were exposed against Collingwood when we went too tall and you'd hope they would learn from that.

[DeeMfc 621]

I'm predicting a late change - Luke Tapscott in for Christian Salem.

Roos to give Salem a rest.

[beelzebub 23,379]

the ball will spend a lot of time spilling and tumbling....id set a team for that...

lets see what happens

[Nasher 33,616]

For some reason i feel we are a sneaky chance in this game

I'm pretty sure I could guess the reason.

[Nasher 33,616]

Roos is showing immense belief in Salem, considering his disposal count for the last two games have been 7, 4 (subbed on), 2 (subbed off) and 8, and has only gained more than 10 on one occasion. Would love to be a fly on the wall during team selection - Salem doesn't look to be in AFL form to me.

[beelzebub 23,379]

I get the idea Roos's measure of Role performance isnt adjudged by champion stats...its more holistic....or gut....or both.

Seems to place faith in the intangibles rather than the strictly numbers game.

[Nasher 33,616]

I get the idea Roos's measure of Role performance isnt adjudged by champion stats...its more holistic....or gut....or both.

Seems to place faith in the intangibles rather than the strictly numbers game.

Yes, clearly, otherwise he'd have been omitted on those numbers weeks ago.

"Which intangibles?" is the million dollar question...

[Cards13 9,117]

Yes, clearly, otherwise he'd have been omitted on those numbers weeks ago.

"Which intangibles?" is the million dollar question...

Or a complete lack of faith in the 2's players. Looks like the writing is on the wall for the likes of Blease and Tappy. Edited July 3, 2014 by Cards13

[Jack7 528]

Let the Chess game begin between Roosy and Ross.

Good luck,but not too much,to Anthony Morabito-imagine how mentally tough this kid is to overcome years of injuries.

Ross brings him back against us and not for the Derby last week,LOL.

[P-man 13,366]

I guess that's the last we've seen of Sammy Blease then.

[Axis of Bob 11,836]

Roos is showing immense belief in Salem, considering his disposal count for the last two games have been 7, 4 (subbed on), 2 (subbed off) and 8, and has only gained more than 10 on one occasion. Would love to be a fly on the wall during team selection - Salem doesn't look to be in AFL form to me.

My guess would be the general lack of class in the forward half and his defensive intent. More than anything I think it is about demonstrating that if you do what you are asked to do then you'll get a game, no matter the stats. He competes, works hard in defence and he uses the ball well.

It probably also reflects the lack of damaging forward–of-centre options we have pushing for a game.

[picket fence 17,172]

Anyone else think that Zac Dawson and Bootsma are somehow related!???? Well in looks at least! Watch for Sylvia to have a personal best and kick 5 "Telling Goals' and resurrect his career!

[Dee Fan 3,247]

Yes, clearly, otherwise he'd have been omitted on those numbers weeks ago.

"Which intangibles?" is the million dollar question...

I get the feeling that it will click for Salem and he will start to get the numbers we expect of him. Sometimes it's just a matter of getting used to the pace and learning where to be.

[DemonOX 8,791]

Thought there would have been a few more changes tbh but hey I will leave it in the very capable hands of Roos and co.

[Deespicable 2,726]

Late changes?

That team looks too tall against a Dockers line-up with only two key defenders, two ruckmen, a tall forward (Pavlich) and a medium-tall forward (Mayne).

Also factor in Darwin where conditions will likely be hot, humid and slippery and not likely to favour big forwards.

I would have preferred more runners in that team and less talls.

We were exposed against Collingwood when we went too tall and you'd hope they would learn from that.

Yep, I think it shows that PR has not been watching the previous Darwin games closely.

It also shows a total unawareness that the indigenous guys usually step up a gear in Darwin.

How anyone could leave out the clean hands of JKH for this game defies belief.

JKH obviously shouldn't have called for the ball against the Pies a few weeks back - those errors seem to have made Roosy stamp his papers with too small to lead up.

We will be physically competitive early and then when our plethora of bigs tire, we'll be run over.

[Pipefitter 2,159]

I had totally forgotten about Sylvia until looking at the teams.

[The Song Formerly Known As 6,479]

I had totally forgotten about Sylvia until looking at the teams.

same.

[Pennant St Dee 13,190]

They are going to come out very hard after the pasting they copped from Lyon last week despite the win, I think we look tired but still want to see how we measure up against them, they play the way we are heading and will be a good yard stick of how hard our boys have to work for the full four quarters, especially when you don't have the ball.

[Sambo06 222]

Roos is showing immense belief in Salem, considering his disposal count for the last two games have been 7, 4 (subbed on), 2 (subbed off) and 8, and has only gained more than 10 on one occasion. Would love to be a fly on the wall during team selection - Salem doesn't look to be in AFL form to me.

Toump could have used the same belief in him as Salem is getting. He got dropped after Weagles game with 17 touches??? Comes in as emergency v Richmond and gets 15 touches while Salem has 8?? Maybe a couple more games in the firsts and he wouldn't be struggling with his confidence in the 2's like he is now. Wondering how he gets dropped and others have faith shown in them. One rule for him and another for Salem by the looks of it.

[dazzledavey36 54,951]

Toump could have used the same belief in him as Salem is getting. He got dropped after Weagles game with 17 touches??? Comes in as emergency v Richmond and gets 15 touches while Salem has 8?? Maybe a couple more games in the firsts and he wouldn't be struggling with his confidence in the 2's like he is now. Wondering how he gets dropped and others have faith shown in them. One rule for him and another for Salem by the looks of it.

Spot on Sambo. I have been big on this lately in terms of Toumpas being stiff at selections.

It is now obvious he is struggling with confidence due to not being given a fair go like the likes of Dean Kent, Salem and Terlich.

I am totally mystified in how Salem keeps his spot and JKH is still in the twos. Infact I was really surprised he was dropped too.

[Coup Cooper 610]

Id really like to see Howe start up forward, he has been good down back.. But now with Dawes Pedersen and Gawn/jamar up forrward he will get the 4th best defender and could pose as abreal threat.. However i doubt this.. As roos wil defend from the start.. Go dees..