Can we beat Port Adelaide?

[rpfc 27,692]

A day game in the Alice,gunna be bloody stifling

Don't they have lights up there yet?

Yeah, sunny 21 degrees, 40% humidity...

Phew, glad I am not playing in those conditions...

https://www.google.com.au/#q=alice+spring+weather+forecast&safe=active

[Oneday 248]

A day game in the Alice,gunna be bloody stifling

Don't they have lights up there yet?

Maximum daytime temp of 22 degrees is forecast, beautiful up there this time of year.

[nutbean 8,837]

It is unfortunate ( or fortunate ) - that after each game we have won this year the opposition coaches whilst giving us some credit, haven't been exactly flattering of their own sides. I haven't heard a losing coach say " geez we played well and gave our all but they were just better than us". There has been plenty of "unacceptable" and " thats not how we play".

The teams we have played and won against ( and even just lost against) have had lots of players down - I give a lot of credit to our boys for not letting the opposition play to the best of their abilities. I am also realistic enough to know that there has been some complacency going into the games by the opposition.

I am counting on Port not taking us seriously enough and us putting our best foot forward. I am hoping to hear Hinkley at the presser after the game say - "we didn't come ready to play and they did".

[H_T 2,941]

Yes we can win. And I think it will be a hotly contested game. Preparation the key for both sides and given Port were up for the Hawks game, it will be interesting to see if Port can be up for this.

And given Hinkley's a very astute and well planned coach I think they will be up for it despite possible non inclusions of Monfries and Hartlett.

Dees will have to be spot on with execution and efficiency with their skills. Dawes will be missed, but if Pederson and Gawn can contribute in the F50 like they did against Richmond, lookout!

[bing181 8,359]

Hartlett out.

[Dee Fan 3,247]

I'm on the I reckon we can win side.

The players are going to go in to the game believing they can win and no longer just wanting to be competitive.

Port are all out attack and we are all out defence, we should be able to shut down their forward line because we have one of the best back lines in the competition and if we can control the ruck we can control the midfield. I'm not in awe of Port, I don't see them as some sort of certainty to finish on top.

[Deestroy All 14,262]

This year we've beaten mid table teams, last year we were belted by them. Be happy with that step I reckon.

A near full strength Port are The top team, like Gorgoroth says, they will punish our turnovers, unlike the mid range teams we've beaten.

Their fitness and pressure will create more turnovers too, so it may well get pretty ugly.

Would be happy to get within 40.

Angry if its +70.

No chance in hell of winning.

(So after that prediction, thank me for the win if a miracle happens, after you rightly bump and berate my post)

[Redleg 38,615]

^{I am staggered they are playing this game in the hottest part of the day. Why was it not scheduled for night time?}

[Pates 9,556]

I'd settle for us pushing them to the line and being in the game at 3 quarter time. This is the first genuine contender we've played all year so there's a bit of an unknown factor but it's where I hope to see the most improvement.

In terms of can we win, on our perfect day and on a bad day for them we can, but if they play to their best I can't see us being within 5 goals. Especially without Dawes (thanks MRP).

[pitmaster 3,161]

Here's a sobering statistic.

In the three games we have won our opponents have kicked an aggregate of 25 goals 49 behinds while we have kicked an aggregate 37 goals 20 in those wins.

Their inaccuracy has left the door open for us, just as our 6.15 did for the Saints.

We are competitive and if the opposition is a little 'off' we can take them.

But relying on opposition inaccuracy for a win does not shape us as challengers to the top of the ladder sides, even though on any given day we are some sort of faint chance. And that's it this week: a faint chance.

[Maple Demon 449]

Figuring they'll get us by 5-7 goals.

[Guest]

Important that we start the (sort of) second half of the season decently. No, we won't win, but if we can make it tough for them, it'll be another big step.

Then, the week after comes the big one. Would love to see a 70,000 + crowd show up. Collingwood are inconsistent, who knows, we could be a smokey

[Elusive Tunbridge 795]

^{I am staggered they are playing this game in the hottest part of the day. Why was it not scheduled for night time?}

Gets mighty cold at night in the Centre in winter.

[hells bells 2,023]

^{I am staggered they are playing this game in the hottest part of the day. Why was it not scheduled for night time?}

Redleg it's been 20deg+ in Melbourne for the past 2 weeks. I'm not sure the heat will be a big factor.

Does anyone know if Monfries is expected to miss? I see he was subbed with an ankle injury. Hartlett also out so that helps our chances.

[Binmans PA 26,741]

Thoughts on Garland getting first crack?

Good idea, Billy. Yep. I'd start Garland on him and have Jetta as a back up.

[John Crow Batty 8,376]

Here's a sobering statistic.

In the three games we have won our opponents have kicked an aggregate of 25 goals 49 behinds while we have kicked an aggregate 37 goals 20 in those wins.

Their inaccuracy has left the door open for us, just as our 6.15 did for the Saints.

We are competitive and if the opposition is a little 'off' we can take them.

But relying on opposition inaccuracy for a win does not shape us as challengers to the top of the ladder sides, even though on any given day we are some sort of faint chance. And that's it this week: a faint chance.

There is a fallacy in your stats. The game only resets after a goal is scored. Those stats at best show they are under constant pressure and keep missing. On the other hand it shows we have trouble clearing the defensive 50. Many of those behinds have been scored in sequences of more than two and as many as five in a row.

[beelzebub 22,732]

a good litmus test for us

i dont think we'll get king hit

we have NOTHING to lose

Port must be maybe a little bit antsy

I dont think Roos is going in having penciled a loss in...and Im sure that will permeate through his charges

Going to be a very interesting game

[Maple Demon 449]

A snowball's chance in...well, Alice Springs, of winning considering we won't have Dawes.

[Red and Bluebeard 2,050]

^{I am staggered they are playing this game in the hottest part of the day. Why was it not scheduled for night time?}

It won't be all that warm -- the forecast is 21 for Saturday. Alice Springs is not Darwin, and is not much further north than Brisbane. It is (almost) winter there too ...

[Vipercrunch 2,818]

I hope none of the many supporters who don't know where the game is this weekend are travelling up to Darwin instead of Alice. A guy rang SEN tonight complaining about the AFL scheduling a daytime game in the 34 deg heat of Darwin. Worst part was that it took Mark Allen and the Ox about 5 minutes and heaps of SMS's to work it out.

[Coup Cooper 610]

No.

[bing181 8,359]

Put me down as a "no" as well. Feel it's just too big an ask for the moment, unless they have a real off day - which perhaps they're due for. With Dawes out, even with Frawley back in, not sure how we're going to kick a winning score - while keeping them to a losing score.

Feel we'll have a better chance when we meet them again in Round 18 - catch is, they're at home.

Still, a great chance to measure ourselves against an in-form team.

[angrydee 842]

I reckon they'll beat us by 1-2 goals a quarter. So I'm anticipating a 4-8 goal loss.

[nutbean 8,837]

There is a fallacy in your stats. The game only resets after a goal is scored. Those stats at best show they are under constant pressure and keep missing. On the other hand it shows we have trouble clearing the defensive 50. Many of those behinds have been scored in sequences of more than two and as many as five in a row.

The other fallacy in the stat is it doesn't give the underlying reason for the inaccuracy. You mentioned an important one which is the constant pressure meaning little easy kicks at goal. The other thing I have noticed is we are not "giving up the corridor" as much this year meaning that a lot of shots are being taken by the opposition from angles of 45% or worse.

[nutbean 8,837]

I can't anticipate anything. Being badly burned the last few years resigns me to believing I will witness a thumping. Watching the great defensive efforts this years make me think we can strangle this mob. In short - if we continue the form we have shown over the past 4-5 weeks we will be in this game for a long time.