Pessimism or Reality?

[mrtwister 650]

I'm starting to worry about how we are blazing this trail to success. I actually think that GCS, NMFC and possibly GWS are going to develop as serious premiership contenders before we are.

This opinion is mainly based on our lack of senior leaders. We have gutted the club and brought in some very seriously talented youngsters. But, who is guiding them? Where is the on field mentoring? Who are they looking up to? Who are they learning from?

The above mentioned teams have leaders, experienced players who lay the bench mark, to share their knowledge and act, unofficially as on field coaches. NM have Harvey and a copule more solid veteran types. GC have Ablett and other solids as well, eg Bock. GWS will, I'm sure have some experience in their mix as well. We have npone who has 'been there, done that'. So the young guys are, essentially, out there learning their trade on their own. Sure they'll get better, but very slowly.

I don't see a way out of this either. We are just going to have to be extremely patient and hope the sheep make it safely to the field that is a premiership, without a shepherd.

Ps. If I was TS I'd go to GWS if they signed a hard and experienced mentor type for me. The cash would just be a bonus.

[PeterJames 46]

Some over the top statements there but the decision to get rid of Mcdonald is turning out to be a shocker. His leadership would be valuable, Green is struggling as a captain. Even Bruce not being there is hurting. People might say if we still had Bruce then Strauss and Nicholson wouldn't be playing, I know who I'd pick.

[Diablo Deemon 220]

MFCSS

[Sir Why You Little 34,763]

Some over the top statements there but the decision to get rid of Mcdonald is turning out to be a shocker. His leadership would be valuable, Green is struggling as a captain. Even Bruce not being there is hurting. People might say if we still had Bruce then Strauss and Nicholson wouldn't be playing, I know who I'd pick.

Jnr Mac and Cameron Bruce would have made no difference today, may have been worse actually.

The problem is this.......THERE IS A BIG BIG GAP BETWEEN TOP 4 SIDES and the rest.....From now on the improvement is going to be incrementable and hard work.

Todays effort was a big improvement on Round 2 even though the amount was more....Hawthorn had to work harder and take more hits.

Sylvia's turn over sadly cracked what could have been closer. We couldn't kick 2 in a row...they tried bloody hard, but we are just not big enough yet.

[Guest hangon007]

The problem is this.......THERE IS A BIG BIG GAP BETWEEN TOP 4 SIDES and the rest.....

Why is there such a gap "between the top 4 and the rest"?

[Supermercado 2,646]

Even Essendon and North have managed to beat one of the top four sides once in the last couple of years..

[Demonic Ascent 0]

The problem goes back to early in the Daniher era. The problem is not that we "got rid" of our experienced players, our problem is that there were no experienced players worth hanging on to.

[Sir Why You Little 34,763]

Why is there such a gap "between the top 4 and the rest"?

Stephen Hawking may know....i am just looking at the big picture.

[dee-luded 2,958]

Why is there such a gap "between the top 4 and the rest"?

Once you get your top 25 players up to full AFL bodies & experience necessary then the tactics come into play. Once this has happened, the gap becomes Grand canyon size until your guns are retiring.

[Webber 10,179]

Sad to say, today reinforced the reality of our lack of character, lack of skill, and for the first time I think we may have a talent pool well below what has been touted. We have been resolutely uncompetitive against any decent opposition, and for mine, we have regressed from last year. It sounds odd, based on the fact that we could end up with 2 or 3 more wins, but last year gave us a glimpse of our potential against the big boys. No such glimpses this year, and way too many sub-standard players. I'm struggling to get a clear view of our future, and after 3 years of hope and promise, it's a big worry.

[PeterJames 46]

Sad to say, today reinforced the reality of our lack of character, lack of skill, and for the first time I think we may have a talent pool well below what has been touted. We have been resolutely uncompetitive against any decent opposition, and for mine, we have regressed from last year. It sounds odd, based on the fact that we could end up with 2 or 3 more wins, but last year gave us a glimpse of our potential against the big boys. No such glimpses this year, and way too many sub-standard players. I'm struggling to get a clear view of our future, and after 3 years of hope and promise, it's a big worry.

I feel the same way.

[praha 10,329]

Why is there such a gap "between the top 4 and the rest"?

That's obvious isn't it?

Geelong, Collingwood and Hawthorn, with either WC or Carlton rounding it out. Whoever makes that top 4, I think, will be miles ahead of whoever finishes 5th. I already think WC is ahead of Carlton.

[Sir Why You Little 34,763]

That's obvious isn't it?

Geelong, Collingwood and Hawthorn, with either WC or Carlton rounding it out. Whoever makes that top 4, I think, will be miles ahead of whoever finishes 5th. I already think WC is ahead of Carlton.

Correct, we have no elite players on our list at this moment, The club must put 110% into the Football Dept. over the next 3-5 years.

The MFC is a long way off top 4, but can get there with determined hard work....but the AFL Top 4 is becoming elite, and with free agency could become even more elite.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,511]

That's obvious isn't it?

Geelong, Collingwood and Hawthorn, with either WC or Carlton rounding it out. Whoever makes that top 4, I think, will be miles ahead of whoever finishes 5th. I already think WC is ahead of Carlton.

So obvious, there's five?

[drdrake 3,048]

The reality is we are not improving, in 2010 we had a few games where we got smashed, this year every game we lose we get smashed. Our inability to stop teams scoring against us is a major concern, it has been a real issue since the first game Bailey coached us. I don't expect us to win every game, but I do expect us to improve every year, to me 2010 was a much better year than 2011, we saw improvement we at least competed against Collingwood, Bulldogs, Hawthorn(second game), St Kilda, Fremantle(Subi). This year we get a couple of goals behind and he throw the towel in.

[Radar Detector 1,339]

To be a top four contender, you really need the core of your best players to be physically mature and the genuine leader of your team (usually around 24-27yo). At present, our problems are two-fold. Firtsly, we only have a very small core of players in that age bracket. Secondly, the quality of these players is not quite at the level required for a top team anyway. We have two or three B+ graders in that age bracket (Davey, Sylvia, Jamar and Green who is a bit older) and some solid B graders (Moloney, Rivers, Martin). Of the B+ graders, only one has played to standard this year IMO and that is Sylvia. The rest have been below their best.

All the top fourn contenders have multiple A graders in or around that age bracket. Collingwood's are right in the age sweet spot as are Carlton's and Hawthorn's. Geelong's and West Coast's are a bit older (which means they will probably fall back down the ladder quicker than the other three). St Kilda has a reasonable mix of senior plaeyrs also. Sydney, Fremantle, Essendon and the Kangaroos are all lacking a large core of senior leaders like the top 5 but have much better service from their top end (Goodes, O'Keefe, Pavlich, Sandilands, Watson, Fletcher, Harvey, Petrie, Wells etc.).

In reality, we would need to either trade for probably two A-graders in that 24-27yo age bracket (not likely) or, in reality, wait for our core group of youngsters to fill this age/experience bracket in 2014-2015. This is no different from the journey we have been expecting all along. Still all about patience, no matter how frustrating it is in the meantime.

[Radar Detector 1,339]

The reality is we are not improving, in 2010 we had a few games where we got smashed, this year every game we lose we get smashed. Our inability to stop teams scoring against us is a major concern, it has been a real issue since the first game Bailey coached us. I don't expect us to win every game, but I do expect us to improve every year, to me 2010 was a much better year than 2011, we saw improvement we at least competed against Collingwood, Bulldogs, Hawthorn(second game), St Kilda, Fremantle(Subi). This year we get a couple of goals behind and he throw the towel in.

I agree the manner of our losses is disturbing. I understand (and expect) us to lose to more physically developed sides like Hawthorn. What I don't expect (although unfortunately I'm starting to) is that every time we play a side like that we will get smashed by ten goals. Would be interested to know how many games we have played in with a margin of less than 39.5 (either way). We are too often right on or right off and don't seem to have the ability to grit tough games out.

I do however see improvement in certain individuals that has me satisfied we're stll heading the right way. Watts, MArtin, Trengove, Strauss etc. have all made strides this year.

[Sir Why You Little 34,763]

I agree the manner of our losses is disturbing. I understand (and expect) us to lose to more physically developed sides like Hawthorn. What I don't expect (although unfortunately I'm starting to) is that every time we play a side like that we will get smashed by ten goals. Would be interested to know how many games we have played in with a margin of less than 39.5 (either way). We are too often right on or right off and don't seem to have the ability to grit tough games out.

I do however see improvement in certain individuals that has me satisfied we're stll heading the right way. Watts, MArtin, Trengove, Strauss etc. have all made strides this year.

At least Hawthorn had to work hard for that win yesterday....Small improvement.

[Grimes is Great 183]

Sad to say, today reinforced the reality of our lack of character, lack of skill, and for the first time I think we may have a talent pool well below what has been touted. We have been resolutely uncompetitive against any decent opposition, and for mine, we have regressed from last year. It sounds odd, based on the fact that we could end up with 2 or 3 more wins, but last year gave us a glimpse of our potential against the big boys. No such glimpses this year, and way too many sub-standard players. I'm struggling to get a clear view of our future, and after 3 years of hope and promise, it's a big worry.

Totally agree, there has been no team improvement, individuals like Martin & Watts have improved but overall i feel the team has gone backwards. Where is the intensity that we showed last yr against Collingwood & Bulldogs??? Even late last season against Hawthorn we put up a much better showing than yesterday. dissapointing...

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

MFCSS

You are living on cloud 9 in your own head Diablo.

I share the same passion and love for this club, but I don't think everything is all rosey and that success

will inevatibly come about because of our list etc. You shouldn't either.

Stop accepting mediocrity.

Jnr Mac and Cameron Bruce would have made no difference today, may have been worse actually.

The problem is this.......THERE IS A BIG BIG GAP BETWEEN TOP 4 SIDES and the rest.....From now on the improvement is going to be incrementable and hard work.

Todays effort was a big improvement on Round 2 even though the amount was more....Hawthorn had to work harder and take more hits.

Sylvia's turn over sadly cracked what could have been closer. We couldn't kick 2 in a row...they tried bloody hard, but we are just not big enough yet.

I agree wholeheartedly with the opening post in the sense that we have a serious lack of quality leaders. That

has been a problem for a while now.

My other concern is that we have a game plan that in no way can penetrate or match it against many sides in

the AFL.

Here are some problems that immediately need addressing before the 2012 season begins. (Whether Bailey stays or not)

1 - We MUST adopt some form of a modern day press. Only once this year have we seriously troubled a good side in their backhalf and that was against Essendon where we smashed the 'tackles inside 50' record. Why has it happened only once this year if Bailey keeps saying that our game plan relies on turnovers in our forward half? Why? I always hear Bailey speaking about forward pressure, but how often do we see it?

2 - Our kickouts. Is our plan to just kick long to a 50/50 contest, hope that we get numbers around the ball and then move the ball with numbers into our forward 50? If it is, (which it seems as though it is) we are never going

to get anywhere near beating quality sides. You would think an AFL club would have more than just a 'bomb it long to a contest' approach to kickouts. Why don't we have a plan B, or C?

3 - Lack of quality kickers. Has been a serious issue, especially in the backline. Just look at Hawthorn's backline

or team for that matter. We need to inject some silky skilled players.

4 - A quality experienced player. We have so many youngsters and as the opening post suggests, we have a serious lack of quality leaders and experienced players. If we could somehow trade for a gun forward/back/or

mid next draft, it would do wonders to our side. Create hype, boost morale, all of that goodness that helps develop

and inspire players.

[Grandson of a gun 276]

Too many people around here started out the season with very unrealistic expectations of where we were at.

They also got carried away with finals talk during the year.

Have a look at our best midfield. Take out Jones and Moloney and they are all kids with no size about them YET. (Note: Sylvia a flanker)

Our young forwards are still skinny kids- Watts / Howe

Our defence has been unsettled by injury all year (Frawley, Grimes, Rivers, Bail).

It hurt losing McDonald becase they didn't bank on losing Bruce too (otherwise they would have kept McDonald) so yes there is a gap at the experience end which was unforeseen, however others are growing into the role. Moloney is the stand up follow me leader (along with Jones), Green (admittedly battled with expectation an trying to do too much early season) is still a very good leader and Rivers again is showing his courage and leadership skills each week. Grimes being out doesn't help- but he and Trengove (and Scully) are still very young men who are natural leaders and developing well.

They are not excuses. They are simple statements of fact.

Why do we struggle against the top sides- because we are not yet physically strong enough to compete with them for a full 120 minutes.

There is no need to be pessimistic. All is not lost and the development of the kids is still coming on well.

But be realistic with your expectations........

[Deeoldfart 7,809]

Sad to say, today reinforced the reality of our lack of character, lack of skill, and for the first time I think we may have a talent pool well below what has been touted. We have been resolutely uncompetitive against any decent opposition, and for mine, we have regressed from last year. It sounds odd, based on the fact that we could end up with 2 or 3 more wins, but last year gave us a glimpse of our potential against the big boys. No such glimpses this year, and way too many sub-standard players. I'm struggling to get a clear view of our future, and after 3 years of hope and promise, it's a big worry.

I agree Webber. The gap between our best and our worst has widened in 2011 compared to last year. 'Competitive' was the buzz word used so often about the Dees in 2010, but this year, when we have been beaten we have been largely uncompetitive for large parts of games. I'm prepared to cut a bit of slack for yesterday's performance (because of the Darwin factor), but the next three weeks will be critical to finding out just where we are as a team ..... whether we have progressed or regressed.

Edit: corrected date,

Edited July 25, 2011 by Deeoldfart

[pitmaster 3,080]

Todays effort was a big improvement on Round 2 even though the amount was more....Hawthorn had to work harder and take more hits.

Correct. Take out that ridiculous penalty against Tapscott for getting Osborne on the ground when Osborne started the push and shove (as he always does, it's his way) when Howe was about to get a free directly in front of goal from a marking contest (2 goal turnaround)

and take out Maric's hopeless miss in the first quarter and you are down to a six goal margin.

Fact is this game was fought out to the end, heads did not drop, we kept scoring and the physcial pressure was a vast improvement.

My depression aside, there were a couple of positive signs there.

[rpfc 27,611]

We won't progress until the 'senior' players are Grimes, Jones, Watts, Scully, Trengove, Gysberts, et al.

Green, Davey, Moloney, Rivers, and Sylvia cannot drive us to where we want to go.

Green and Davey have, of course, been down.

Rivers and Sylvia are anything but consistent - although I am holding them to a higher standard, but that is the burden of being a senior player.

And Moloney is a good leader, but doesn't back it up in big games. In all thrashings this year - bar Coll - Brent hasn't cracked 20 touches. His bad games have to get better or he won't lose the 'beating up on poor sides' tag that some have given him.

This isn't doom and gloom, the talent may come on, in large measure, next year.

But the club has to take a risk and attempt to fast track them by giving them the Leadership Group, and then choosing their captain. If it's Brent, then fine. If it's Green, I'd be surprised but that's fine too.

We need them to take over the club soon and drive us to where we want to be.

[H_T 2,941]

+ 1.