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There’s a lot more to this than the ’54 first rounders have gone home’ headline. It’s 19% of first round draftees, which sounds alarming but I ran some of the numbers myself. The data is extremely heavily skewed by a few things. Firstly Gold Coast/GWS. 56% of all the first rounders (30 in total) who went home had been drafted to either GWS or Gold Coast, with only 24 of ‘go home’ players leaving other clubs. Victorian teams have the best retention of all clubs, with each club on average only having lost 0.9 first round players across that 12 year span. This equates to an 8% chance (0.08 player per year) of any particular Victorian club losing a draftee in any individual draft year (compared with Gold Coast/GWS who lost an average of 1.25 first round picks per year to their native state). Those players who ‘went home’ from Victoria were: Reece Conca (106 of his 150 games at Richmond), Jamie Cripps (16/228 at St Kilda), Troy Menzel (40/44 at Carlton), Jimmy Toumpas (who was basically delisted, 27/37 at Melbourne), Blake Acres (who didn’t want to be traded and returned to Victoria, 75/145 at St Kilda), Ryan Burton (who didn’t want to be traded, 47/139 at Hawthorn), Sam Petrevski-Seton (94/121 at Carlton), Luke Jackson (52/75 at Melbourne) and Jason Horne-Francis (17/41 at North). If you look at that list there are really only a couple of ‘we were desperate to keep them players’, being Cripps, Jackson and Horne Francis …. Which equates to one good Victorian first rounder going home every 4 years. Secondly, the data is heavily skewed by the first 3 years of the sample (2010-2012), where a total of 29 players went home, whilst only 25 went home in the next 9 years. The return home rate reduced by 70% after 2012 (0.17 players/club/year) compared with that from 2010-12 (0.54 p/c/y). These were due to the GWS/GC start up priority draft selections where they had great difficulty retaining those players, with GC and GWS losing an average of 8 first rounders each to ‘go home’ across those 3 years. Post 2012, a Victorian club loses 0.06 ‘go home’ first rounders per year …. Only 5 in total, and this includes those that were traded reluctantly (2 of the 5) and one that was given away cheaply. Basically, the go home factor for Victorian clubs is mostly non-existent. It’s slightly higher for WA and SA clubs, Sydney and Brisbane (0.13 players lost/year) and much higher for GC and GWS (0.88 players lost/year) but it is far lower than it was during the formative years in 2010-2012. In short, despite Jackson leaving, I wouldn’t worry much about it. I’ve got my working below for anyone interested.

Jackson leaving also meant we got to experience the death ride. That was great fun. This should be factored into the overall value of the trade imo.

most of that profit is just what ive spent at the club shop i have a problem

"FOR THE third consecutive year, Melbourne Football Club has announced a strong financial result, returning an operating profit of $2.2m for the year ended 31 October 2023. The Club has also generated an additional one off $900k in fundraising proceeds for the purpose of upgrading current training and administration facilities. These proceeds added to the operating profit, create a statutory profit of $3.1m."

MFC after the womens and men's teams went out in straight sets... 😬

Was I the only person wondering who Jackson Haul was?

Will be very disappointing if Caleb Windsor requests a trade to Lysterfield.

He deserves his spot on the list. Forward structure completely broke down in the finals the moment he did his knee. I don't think he ever gets back to his best but from and off field leadership and coaching point of view he's worth the contract.

Fantastic analysis. One thing that isn't considered here is other types of moves: - players moving away from their home state - players moving from an "interstate club" to another "interstate club" and not going home It would be interesting to see if the "go home" factor is any more statistically significant than these other types of moves. I imagine the clubs have done this analysis, understand the likelihood and also have an understanding of factors that may affect a players decision to stay in one place longer term. I wish AFL journalists would present this kind of analysis in an article, rather than published opinion pieces around go home factor.

His spot on the list could be considered very marginal, purely from the likelihood he'll spend much of it injured, but I'm stoked the club as kept him on. Seems like a great character and I think this move is a great way for the club to repay the faith to Jake. I don't think it should be forgotten, that Melksham was one of the first developed players of quality that sought out a trade to the MFC, at a time we were pretty much rubbish on the field. In the years that followed, we picked up Hibbo, Lever, Langdon, Tomlinson & May, but perhaps asides from Bernie Vince, Melky was one of the first. If he can get back to his 2023 form, that would be a bonus, but I think this shows how far the club has come from the dark era, when guys like James McDonald, Robbo and others were pushed out the door not on their terms. Similar for guys like T Mac and BBB, how we treat these guys will have a big bearing on how we continue to move forward as a club.

I don't think that it includes the McClelland Trophy money is included in the revenues from reading the report, unless it is in the AFL distributions amount. The prize money was only 298k. Edit - Just read the website article, is to be included in the 2024 results, starts the year with a bang!

Ha! Yes of all the pretentious Sydney cabaret-rock bands of the 90s, they were certainly one of them.

I am enjoying reading the Jake Melksham thread, very positive in the main, Jake has won us over and I am very happy that Jake has re- signed with us. We really need his presence, footy IQ and leadership skills in the forward half and I love the idea of keeping him on as forward coach. Thanks Jake.!!

From 2022 Financials "The Club completed its exit from the gaming industry, with the Bentleigh Club closing in August 2022. The sale of Bentleigh Club settled after the financial year end, with proceeds of $23.7m being received. The Board have established a Future Fund with the sale proceeds, to replace the foregone gaming income from the divestment of Bentleigh Club and Leighoak, and provide financial security for the Club for many years to come." Seems to state that the Future Fund was setup with the proceeds from the bentleigh club.

$10 Million running costs sounds reasonable to me for a year. But Hawk the Troll is not looking for reason

Cash Reserves of $10mill approx. is in the article, I am certain. Put away your microscope and please delete that ridiculous and shameful Cutoff Hawk that has no place in the Melbourne Club logos. It brings many fans heartache and sadness of a previous era. It is completely irrelevant and adds nothing to your posts. You

Another ruckman would make more sense IMO. I am not sure Hore has the pace and agility required and he kicks the ball without sufficient penetration. That said, our recruiters must see something I don't and they are often correct.

Adelaide will need to wear a clash jumper when they play us.

I think these two things don't need to be said in the same paragraph. We know mate, we know

You may have misheard. I think it was a reference to this town in Wyoming.

Playing a third of a season at his age (albeit off a reco) might work out the best for player and club, rather than grinding out 20+ games. Based on his late 2023 form, he’s clearly a staple in our forward line.

Thanks @Axis of Bob. We all have our hobbies hey

Whilst i would agree Nibbla is not a natural goal kicking forward it's bit of a stretch to say he has 'little forward craft or nous' and is 'just not dangerous in advanced positions'. After all, Nibbla: kicked 19.11 for the season had 14 goal assists - the fifth most behind Tracc, Kozzie, Chandler and Viney (of the permanent forwards only Koz and chandler had more more with 23 and 15) had 112 score involvements - the fourth most behind Tracc, Kozzie and Viney (of the permanent forwards only Koz had more more with 135) It's worth noting that as a high half forward he gets less opportunities to score goals than players like Chandler and Koz who operate closer to goal, so they are pretty good offensive numbers. #nibbla myths

Yeah it is just you. Joel Smith is awaiting instruction from the AFL for his hearing. He is in contact with Gary Pert, Alan Richardson and Reece Conca. He has also spoken to Goody.

If my Aunty had wheels, she’d be a bike.

The death ride was great, although it ran out of steam later on. 4 premiership points either way in our favour in Round 24 and we probably could have snared Duursma. Shame the AFL devalued all our deathriding in the blink of an eye with the rubbish McKay compo. Hopefully Windsor turns out OK.

Gee you are a trouble maker. I am tensing up at the thought of your destabilisation of DL.

2028, also the year Andrew Brayshaw claims his second premiership with the Demons (and Angus his fourth) after moving in a free agency deal because Fremantle didn't have any cap space left after burning it all on Jackson.

How many of those players left GWS or Gold coast

What’s stopping Disco is the lack of consistent games in a row. Goody gives him one game and drops him after he did everything right vs the Swans.

The starting order for next year’s draft. As usual, we can expect plenty of changes over the next 12 months. 2024 draft order: Pies hope for Hawks slide, Tigers load up

So we spun Jackson and our own first and second round picks into Jefferson, Windsor and Tholstrup. Time will tell whether Jackson, ND14 and ND35 was worth those three but from where we were - to get a top 7 pick and an obvious Taylor target in KT we can uncoil at least. Will bump the thread in 2028.

Me and that Sherpa certainly know if we are Tensing.

Reminds me of Melbourne in the Neale Daniher era.

It's interesting because there's a lot of that. One of the more interesting things is that more players are drafted from Victoria than other states, so the number of 'flight risks' that need to be taken is also much lower, which was particularly true the further back in time you go. Also, the vast majority of the 'return home' players were those returning to Victoria from other states. Of the 54 players who 'came home', 34 of them were players returning to Victoria (which is 63% of all 'Go home' players, 9 (17%) being players who left Victoria to go to their home state, and the remaining 11 (20%) being players who left a non-Vic club to go to their non-Vic home state. The other interesting thing is how this has changed over time. 20 (out of 34) of the players returning to Victoria did so between 2010 and 2012. Since then only 14 Victrorian first round picks have returned home across the 9 drafts between 2013-2021. Post-2014 no more that two Victorian first rounders have returned home in any given year (and only 1 in total post 2018). I think that there are some players that can't take being away from home and will return however it's generally a very small minority. There were large chunks leaving GC and GWS early in the decade because they were bad clubs that didn't have the culture to retain their best players consistently. They also missed with a lot of their picks and those players got second chances for a small price in Victoria (where the most clubs are). There are now more players in northern state being drafted too (There was only one player, Trent Stubbs, drafted from QLD or NSW in the entire 2010 draft vs 6 in the 2023 first round alone!!). Despite all the talk, the trend for players wanting to go home is definitely downwards. Melbourne just happened to be on the wrong side of an anomaly.

Couldn’t combine the picks to replace star with star, but used them on: - part of the upgrade to get Tholstrup who has some star potential - Jefferson who’s off to a slow start but has some rare skills - and mostly on Windsor who’s a very different type of player but could be really special if he’s developed correctly And in a year when there’s a strong midfield draft and at least some potential for the team to take a step back it’s probably good to keep our first rounder.

I believe Jaguar is owned by Tata Motors, which is an Indian company. (they don’t like it when you beat them at cricket😁).

Saw the thread title and thought this was about a kid currently tearing up the U14s called "Jackson Haul".

Warm & fuzzy for me, too ... Melk certainly has been down some dark pathways with the Dees yet rebounded in particular games, then again across a few games consecutively as if the penny dropped in terms of his form - that has all led to his impressive consistency and challenge in the last half of last season before injury. Surprising, unexpected skills and decisions emerged for which he must be congratulated and encouraged. We need his experience and to use it to transform others in the 'younger' set.

What on earth.. Have I completely said something very sensitive here?

While I agree with you that any suggestion the Pies were worthy of an A when they picked up two later order players who are both regarded as quick movers is a massive suck up to Pies job. They were probably a B, given they gave away their first pick for Schultz who if you have seen him, is a very classy player and will play round 1, unlike many other draft picks. But as to what we did, it is hard to get excited. Windsor and Tholstrup are both quick players and so is Kynan Brown, so we made sure our ageing side is replenished with youthful speed - that's a big tick. But we completely blundered the trade swapping game - clearly we are missing Josh Mahoney's input here and we all should be querying the role Tim Lamb had in those pick swaps and overall list management. The first decision to offload picks 14, 22 and 33 to advance up the order and get pick 11 should go down as one of our worst efforts in history. Clearly we thought by having pick 5 and 11 we could get Harley Reid, but it proved a flawed philosophy. Whilst i am quite happy with Tholstrup, we almost certainly could have got him for pick 14 anyway as only Collingwood seemed aware of his talents and their picks was much later. And even if we'd lost out and some club snaffled him at pick 12 and 13, we could have got Leake from Tas and the jury is still out as to which of him and Tholstrup is better. Then our list manager mucked up how many players we needed on our list (kept Schache, T-Mac and Brown) and that meant we had to offload pick 42 just before the draft for a bag of peanuts. Stupid is as stupid does.

And while we're at it ...

Yes, it’s driving me crazy too. We should continue to call it out. Yes, only on Demonland, along with could-of, should-of, etc. Even though my spell check changes of to have. And here I was thinking our supporters were the classy ones. Turns out we might also be the semi-literate ones. (No offence all… just in fun.)🤣

Fullarton USA ruckman who tests up forward and can play in a key position. To say he is not a ruckman is incorrect. He has been for Lions and is regarded with some ability. He would be our first choice if Max is injured with Schache or Verrall second and third. We are not as lightning as you have stated so rest easy Deanox.

I also like the graphic the MFC used for the signing of Melksham in is original U18 draft kit. We did pretty well this recruitment period and picked up 3 first round picks - well done to JT, Lamb and the team!

He was not available. However Daniel Curtin was.

Question: what's your obsession with country boys from WA all about?

Twelve months ago we were saying the same about Judd McVee.

I hope we don’t get this opportunity to try such a scatterbrained idea. Dangerous Trac doing this even once let alone multiple times per match.