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Whether we make top four depends on us and us alone.

The Adventures of Bitters, Queen of the Desert.

I take joy in 3 things and 3 things only 1- Melbourne winning 2- Geelong losing 3- Death riding Freo

7.3degrees here now, feels like 2.2 according to the app. In almost a decade here, today is the worst I have experienced. As for drainage, I can’t say, but rain hasn’t been heavy enough, so I expect it to be slippery but not really wet. I will try get to training session and report from there. Anyone at training, I will have heavy demon’s jacket with big MFC on back, with two kids, boy 9, girl in glasses 13, my name is Dave, introduce yourselves please on a side note, until today, I have never worn the jacket during the day in Alice

I think one of the hardest things for fans to get their head around is the idea of a campaign that has as its goal peaking in September. Goody has said a variation of this at least five or six times in post match pressers. But his comments don't land, the instinct is to wave them off as coach speak. I think people get the concept in the abstract (premierships are not won in june). But not in terms of it informing their assessment of individual games. We have all been conditioned to see every game as critical and as some sort of litmus test or accurate meaure of the chances of ultimate success. Each game becomes a stand alone event unconnected to the arc of the season. The dees get beaten mid winter by the reigning premier on their home deck, a ground they have a home ground advantage bettered only by the lions. That loss confirms for many why we aren't a contender - despite the fact we had just vanquished the flag favourites. And there is the attendant gnashing of teeth and criticisms of: selection (why bring an underdone petty in! Spargo as sub?), coach (why so many handballs?) and players (dumb - just get it forward, no skill). But see the game as a stepping stone in our campaign and the perspective is different. Petty is selected, despite being underdone because it is the best thing for his individual program (and therefore the team) in terms of peaking later in the year. Or maybe they had been really worried Brown would not ever be fit enough to play the key tall forward role. And decided they needed Petty up there. Perhaps they got good news on Brown, changed course and decided they want Petty down back and wanted to give him as many games in defence as possible to get into the rhythm of the role. That might also explain why they didn't send him forward until near the end of the game after Cameron's injury. There are better, more versatile options for sub than spargo, but as flagged by goody at the start of the year they will use the sub role for both tactical AND load management reasons. Another sub might have increased our chances of winning this particular match, but the eyes are on the prize and spargo being in peak shape is an important piece of the puzzle. Give something up now and be rewarded later. We have had real struggles in the wet with our ball handling, but want to be prepared to stick to our method of chaining out handballs come finals - even if wet. So the direction is to continue to use handball in the cats game because the best way to embed something is apply it in a match. We turned it over way too often and as a result, for one of the only times this season , we were outscored on turnover. But perhaps the team was encouraged to take the high risk kick on because we they weren't encouraged to do so against the blues and pies games and they want to turn the dial a bit more to risk in this phase of the season to get us ready to play like we did rounds 1 - 6. These are all guesses of course. But they are possibilities not considered if the game is assessed in isolation, as a standalone, discreet event where the only goal is to maximise the chances of winning that individual match. But at the end of the day, for genuine flag contenders the campaign is about winning the war, not the individual battles. If our sole goal was to beat the cats, I am 100% sure a lot of things would have been done differently. Even our preparation might have been different - would we have experimented with the staying over night in Geelong stuff if that was an absolute must win game? Of course they wanted to win the game, but there were other objectives as well - winning wasn't the sole goal. And I think it is helpful to assess games, at this time of year in particular, through that lens.

I'm sorry but Essendon losing after the siren makes my night. Our ladder position is up to the players and Goodwin and us winning. We can't rely on other teams. It's a shame Essendon are still in the 8

My take is that the reason the switch flicking doesn't happen is because there are only small margins against each team. Have a look at most competition wide stats. The media language is a team is 1st or 18th on any given particular stat, which is voiced as an absolute. Typical supporters would assume that anything drifting south of 8th position (ladder?) would be problematic, but in reality it's such fine margins of small percentages from 1st to 15th typically. Though I assume explaining this to the average supporter, doesn't drive clicks. Jump on to @WheeloRatings and flick through any stat at random for team averages... ie: Possessions - St Kilda average 390 a match in 1st - Port Adelaide 338 in 18th (that's a difference of 15%) and no real baring on ladder position Disposal Efficiency - 1st to 18th 5.3% difference Clangers - 1st to 16th 51-60.5 a match Clearances 1st to 18th 43-33 average a match Shots at Goal 1st to 16th 30-23 average a match Accuracy for Goal 1st 52% and 18th 42% (Carlton) - Average is 48% The more I have looked at the stats this year, rather than going on the 'eye' test and listening to non informative commentating, the more I realise how genuinely tight the competition is and how this is not discussed in the media, to the detriment of supporters experiences. I have dropped my expectations for the MFC to dominate teams, let alone win matches that my brain says we 'should' on paper.

If you can’t take joy in watching the peptides lose like that, I feel sorry for you.

The Uncle Bitter show has arrived in Alice. I know Territorians are famous for their hospitality but I'm quite touched that they put on a fireworks display in my honour.

I’m not caring about Jackson and how he plays. I just want them to lose. every. single. game!

A couple of points here... The first it's not about draft picks at round 16. It's about what we have to deal with at the end of the season and every Freo loss is a good one for us. The second point is, if we can't retain a top 4 slot from here without relying on other teams losing then it's no point us getting it. If someone overtakes us then we are not playing well enough to have an impact this season. We don't need a breathing space, we need to have a strong run into the finals from here on to be a threat. Last season we held onto a top 2 spot by default and see where that got us. Out in straight sets. What you're posturing is another top 4 finish but again by default. If that happens we will get the same result as last year...out in straight sets.

The July Premiers have crowned themselves.

i reckon we could lose the name calling in the thread some people happy the bombers lost like me coz i despise them and other not happy as our chances of top 2 are less

Hey peanut ... Demons were never going to finish top 2, so it's better that the teams pushing for 4th place lose. Come back to me when you've thought about it ... hahaha

Honestly anyone who wanted Essendon to lose doesn’t understand how this season could play out. Very poor result for us.

Don’t. Just don’t.

We’re not playing good footy consistently enough and the gap between our best and worst is gigantic. We are very flaky atm and are currently a fair way off the top 3 performance wise. Dont worry about top 2, Id be happy finishing the regular season top 4. From there anything goes.

We lost the chance of top 2 after the last qtr capitulation last week.

Pity our chances of finishing 2nd have almost been snuffed out but that's on us. That said, if we had to miss out on a home Qualifying final then Essendon losing after the siren is how I'd want it to happen.

I agree with you Winners. This talk that we're a lock for top 4 is very premature.

Woo Hoo suck on a bag Bombers!! has there ever been an outside 50 after siren goal to win a game so sweet

Wasn’t you dazzle! If you were our list manager we’d struggle to field a team.

The best player in the game doesn’t always win the Brownlow, Oliver is a prime example of that. Daicos x 2 are both guns.

Do I ever. Sitting in the thick of Eagle supporters as I was using my one of my mates WCE membership seats. I was copping it hard off those tossers right up until the last 30 seconds when I thought yeah we’re done and then all of the noise erupted when Tmac kicked that goal. Holy Jesus amazing! Lucky I didn’t get my head punched in that night. The amount of stick that I was giving those clowns in that section was top shelf.

Just send them to Tasmania and keep the competition at 18 teams.

Binman you use to much logic, stats, facts, and examples! You need more blind emotion! Of course winning every week and focussing on the tactical each week at a time is of paramount importance vs who in their right mind would look at the season strategically with the flag in mind!! Have a look at yourself man! Don’t you realise footy is an emotional game! PS: Keep up the great analysis! Go Demons!

I'm mildly annoyed because this round was one of those 'stars align' possibilities where if all the results went the right way our two picks from Freo could have improved three places. But by the time Richmond finished their nose-dive and the Swans and Cats both turned their percentage advantage to a moot point, it is all looking average. It's fine, but also, come on Doggies! Plus, Freo still have a very tough fixture to finish the season so there's still plenty of hope. Also, after close investigation I can confirm that Luke Jackson stole Kade Chandler's mojo. Chandler was gunning it up to round 8 while Jackson was very flat, and then from exactly round 8 on Chandler has been struggling to hit the scoreboard while Jackson has been going berserk. Hopefully Jackson's slow start today bodes well for Chandler tomorrow.

Nah, the current government took that bonus away, limit now 130

Hodge makes Kelli Underwood sound like Dennis Commetti. How on earth can someone get job as a commentator when they can't talk properly, or without that weird resigned inflection at the end of every sentence - it is like fingernails down a blackboard. I mean, c'mon seven, cant you spring for some basic professional development and/or elocution lesson? Jesus wept.

A coaching friend and I were discussing what we believe are the most important factors in ball movement and ability to execute. We were talking about under 19s in this particular conversation, but the answer is the same: fatigue and the flow on effects to concentration, ability to set structures and to get overlap, separation from your opponent and so on. TMac from 3-4 years ago playing forward for us would be perfect right about now, because of his aerobic capacity and ability to work over his opponent up and down the ground. Nick Riewoldt would be another player that would excel under these conditions, however unlike Riewoldt in his prime, TMac rarely misses set shots and so it's this ability under a fatigued state to execute after your hard work that is the difference at this time of year. As Goody alluded to in his presser and as I've said numerous times, we need to execute these moments better and hit the scoreboard and take our chances. We have at least an extra 2 or 3 wins if we execute fundamentals under late game duress and early game opportunities. The Sydney vs Geelong game last night was another game where fatigue played a huge role in the result. Despite the evenness of the inside 50s and Geelong's CP advantage, Sydney should have won that game by at least 6 goals, missing basic shots from the goal square numerous times. Scoreboard pressure is vital in the modern game, because it's extremely rare to have 4 quarters of momentum and dominance all your way anymore. So you want to put separation between you and your opponent to ensure when momentum inevitably swings their way, they don't pass you. Our inability to get separation from our opponents, move the ball quickly to free players, get strong overlap across 4 quarters and kick accurately is now common occurrence, but prior to this 5 week block, we rarely had these issues. These are all related to fatigue. But, if we want to make top 4, we have to be better and push through this, and take our chances when we get them.

Uncle I hope you were forewarned about the local welcoming committee?

Is anyone else here a naive [censored] like me that is surprised it's so cold in Alice? Honestly thought the place was hot all year round.

Forget top 2. We’re not a top 2 side at the moment. Still might not finish top 4

Top 4 is the goal mate. Happy to play Port there 1st week of finals if it turns out like that.

Why are people happy Essendon lost? We basically just lost our chance at a home finals you peanuts

After such a good fight back what a [censored] horrible result for us

Suck [censored] Essendon.

Power. Scum done after the siren 🍆🍆🍆

We're gonna pump in the GF?

Collingwood remind me so much of the 2021 Bulldogs.

He’s defs bringing the smugness this arvo. Interviewed earlier today he was asked if you could have any Magpie lining up 30 metres out in front of goal, who would it be? He answered, “Myself.” 🙄 Also, Fox must love that long Collingwood chant; they’ve taken to spelling it that way…

Darcy Fritsch has just kicked his first goal for the Northern Bullants vs Carlton.

It was pretty cool going past a cop car doing 165 and you weren’t doing anything wrong

The best betting round of footy for the season thus far i reckon (there is hardly ever so many game i consider good value - having already won on the Swans to make their line, and baulking late on the lions and leaving that game alone). Bets i like for the rest of the round: Adelaide to make their 44.5 point line - very long i know, but Roos coming off a bye and the Crows two games hence - and looking for percentage Gold coast to make their +6 point line - i think they win, so a six point line is good value Bombers to make their +12 point line - Port coming off a bye and Bombers two games hence, will run at Port and try to make it a running contest Hawks to make their +18 point line - Blues coming off a bye and Hawks two games hence, will run at the blues and try to make it a running contest Dees to make their 16 point line (in from 19) - Giants coming off bye and we will be looking to attack and run hard. Best bet of the round Saints to make their -50 point line - the Eagles are uncompetitive, not AFL fit, the saints will be desperate to take the opportunity to build some percentage and the weather is perfect for footy The only game therefore i don't have feel for the value is the dog freo game. The dogs are coming off the bye and Freo are up and running now. The line is a health -10 Dogs' way, so i give freo a real chance of beating that handicap mark. But i just have a feeling the dogs will buck the post bye trend and come to play today.

Burra is one of my favourite country towns. Incredible history. For a relatively short while it was the largest tin producer in the world.

Surely it has to be Melky, you want an impact player not a defensive limited skillet ( My new word of the week.... Skillet)

Man driving all that way is a great support effort. I hope we win just for that drive alone.

It could be a clean slate, since everyone would be igneous to his past!