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Welcome to Demonland: Pick 11


dazzledavey36

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Assuming picks stay as they are, and Curtain fell to us at our first pick, would WC offer a future first round pick for him and would we take it?

WC will be bottom 4 next year you would think.

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15 hours ago, Adzman said:

Assuming picks stay as they are, and Curtain fell to us at our first pick, would WC offer a future first round pick for him and would we take it?

WC will be bottom 4 next year you would think.

The FD has tried to sell future picks into the present to fast track our build for a flag - I can’t see them doing what you describe. Take Curtin and see if him and JVR want to be the West Avengers living it up in Melbourne.

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Tim Lamb on Gettable today specifically said that our recruitment team rates the players available at pick 11 significantly higher than those available at pick 14 and that's why we traded up.  I'm sure this is taking into account that both picks will slide at least 2 spots on Draft night for GC Academy bids matched.  We see a quality cliff somewhere in between that range.

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On 14/10/2023 at 06:48, Adzman said:

Assuming picks stay as they are, and Curtain fell to us at our first pick, would WC offer a future first round pick for him and would we take it?

WC will be bottom 4 next year you would think.

Or as I suggested, maybe a straight swap for Reid, who may prefer to go home, if WC keep pick 1.

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On 13/10/2023 at 11:20, Viscount Cardwell said:

Pick 11, I believe, becomes pick 16, if you factor in F/S and academy picks, using Cal Twomey's September rankings players may not fall in this order, but you can see how compromised this draft is. Our pick 6 (8) may net us one of Curtin, Sanders or Caddy, with pick 16 a toss up between Murphy, Windsor and Wilson, along with Young Doggie Brown, job done for today. Hard to turn 8 and 16 plus a FF1 into #1.

image.png.53cdf93fce88c6eb5992595c0259c201.png

 

Early days and no doubt JT will have some smokies in mind.

But I reckon if we want them we might have to pick Caddy or O’Sullivan at what will likely be 8 or they won’t be there.

I like Leake with the next pick. Wilson might be the back up plan. It does seem to drop off after that. I really like big Will Green but I’m not sure even the Dees would take another ruck.

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There's a few good options around draft pick number #11 if we choose to use it.

● Nate Caddy

● Connor O'Sullivan

● Darcy Wilson

● Ollie Murphy

● Caleb Windsor

● James Leake (Tasmanian)

● Harry De Mattia

● Archie Roberts

● Will Green

● Riley Hardeman (Western Australian)

● Archer Reid

All being possibilities of young guns we could look to choose in the 2023 AFL National Draft.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 16/10/2023 at 18:16, DeeSpencer said:

Early days and no doubt JT will have some smokies in mind.

But I reckon if we want them we might have to pick Caddy or O’Sullivan at what will likely be 8 or they won’t be there.

I like Leake with the next pick. Wilson might be the back up plan. It does seem to drop off after that. I really like big Will Green but I’m not sure even the Dees would take another ruck.

Is it worth trading 6 & 11 for P3 from North to ensure we get Sanders or Caddy?

Otherwise there's a good chance we don't get either.

My preference is Sanders from a needs perspective.  My view means nothing of course but i feel he's the best target for us if available (behind Reid).

That's if they would of course.  The only reason they probably would is to accommodate a trade for 1 with WC.

Edited by Demon Dynasty
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14 minutes ago, Demon Dynasty said:

My preference is Sanders from a needs perspective.  My view means nothing of course but i feel he's the best target for us if available (behind Reid).

Yeah, I'm not so convinced. Sanders seems to lack the explosive pace you need to be a top liner. Great accumulator and incredibly consistent though. 

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27 minutes ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Is it worth trading 6 & 11 for P3 from North to ensure we get Sanders or Caddy?

Otherwise there's a good chance we don't get either.

My preference is Sanders from a needs perspective.  My view means nothing of course but i feel he's the best target for us if available (behind Reid).

That's if they would of course.  The only reason they probably would is to accommodate a trade for 1 with WC.

Why on earth would you use pick 3 on Caddy?

He's not even a top 5 talent.

Edited by dazzledavey36
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1 hour ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Is it worth trading 6 & 11 for P3 from North to ensure we get Sanders or Caddy?

Otherwise there's a good chance we don't get either.

My preference is Sanders from a needs perspective.  My view means nothing of course but i feel he's the best target for us if available (behind Reid).

That's if they would of course.  The only reason they probably would is to accommodate a trade for 1 with WC.

I see our priorities as this:

Priority 1: Trade for Harley Reid if a deal can be done.

Priority 2: Assess trading up for pick 2 or 3 for Duursma or perhaps McKercher. Those 2 seem to have separated themselves as the standouts from the rest of the bunch and Duursma especially makes sense to go hard for. I can't see us going super hard for anyone else.

Priority 3: Take one of Watson, Sanders, Curtin, Leake or perhaps Caddy, O'Sullivan. If the top 3 goes to plan then obviously at least 2 of the first bunch are available plus a couple of tall options. 

Priority 4: Assess the cost of moving pick 11 up to 8 in order to get our choice of the talls. If it's not possible then we know there's other tall options who could slide as well as Wilson and Windsor in the range. Plus I remain intrigued by big Will Green as an alternative option.

 

 

 

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15 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Why on earth would you use pick 3 on Caddy?

He's not even a top 5 talent.

Missing the point.  For our needs many have said Sanders is possibly the best fit for us, and some are saying Caddy next up if we can't get hold of Sanders.  The other is of course McKercher sitting alongside Sanders (only my view).

My preference is Sanders by a fair margin and following that i'd go Caddy.

You obviously won't agree and will say (using our current hand without any changes) Curtin/Leake etc.  Others will agree with you.  All good.

The problem with our present hand of 6 & 11 (from my amature keyboard seat) is that it probably won't get us either of those first two.

I'd rather have one of them (Sanders all day every day) than none of them and have to settle for somewhat less attractive prospects with our current hand (only my view) such as Leake.

If we are willing to trade up to get one (in this case Sanders if we got pick 3), and North were willing, why wouldn't we?

Sanders/McKerchen are a bit away from Reid sure, but then there's a gap between those three and the next 8 or so.  Then a fair gap between those 11 (or so) and many of the rest bar Demattia who i believe seems a bit under rated in many if the so called expert rankings.

P.S. im hapoy to cop any heat on Sanders, Caddy & DeMattia also.

Many on here scoffed at me (and Ollie, although he was into and out of alot of options at times lol) when i was pushing hard to use a higher pick for Kozzy in the 2019 draft as well.  He was sitting at around 30 odd in the rankings at the time and many thought my suggestion was crazy.

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14 minutes ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Missing the point.  For our needs many have said Sanders is possibly the best fit for us, and some are saying Caddy next up if we can't get hold of Sanders.  The other is of course McKercher sitting alongside Sanders (only my view).

My preference is Sanders by a fair margin and following that i'd go Caddy.

You obviously won't agree and will say (using our current hand without any changes) Curtin/Leake etc.  Others will agree with you.  All good.

The problem with our present hand of 6 & 11 (from my amature keyboard seat) is that it probably won't get us either of those first two.  I'd rather have one of them (Sanders all day every day) than none if them and have to settle for somewhat less atteactive prospects with our current hand (only my view) such as Leake.

If we are willing to trade up to get one (in this case Sanders if we got pick 3), and North were willing) why wouldn't we?

Sanders/McKerchen are a bit away from Reid sure, but then there's a gap between those three and the next 8 or so.  Then a fair gap between those 11 (or so) and many of the rest bar Demattia who i believe seems a bit under valued here in many if the so called expert rankings.

Caddy will def be available at our first pick. As will one of Sanders, Curtain or Watson. More likely to be Curtain or Sanders. 

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Just now, Colm said:

Caddy will def be available at our first pick. As will one of Sanders, Curtain or Watson. More likely to be Curtain or Sanders. 

Only going by what i've read / listened to Colm.  Most are saying these four will be likely gone. 

You could be correct though of course and if so that would be a decent result.

If that is the case i'd also be pretty chuffed if we picked up DeMattia with 11 as well.  The guy has some wheels and a pretty decent left foot on him.  We need some speed on the outside and a raking left foot wouldn't do any harm either coming inside 50.

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9 hours ago, Colm said:

Caddy will def be available at our first pick. As will one of Sanders, Curtain or Watson. More likely to be Curtain or Sanders. 

 

9 hours ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Only going by what i've read / listened to Colm.  Most are saying these four will be likely gone. 

You could be correct though of course and if so that would be a decent result.

If that is the case i'd also be pretty chuffed if we picked up DeMattia with 11 as well.  The guy has some wheels and a pretty decent left foot on him.  We need some speed on the outside and a raking left foot wouldn't do any harm either coming inside 50.

That is simply incorrect.  Most are saying our pick 6 will become pick 7 with a successful Walter bid.

The medium term consensus top 8 has been very consistent and indicates that at least 2 of Caddy, Sanders, Curtin or Watson will be available at pick 7:

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1054452/cal-twomeys-phantom-form-guide-top-draft-prospects-october-ranking

Reid, Walter, Duursma, McKercher, Watson, Curtin, Sanders // Caddy

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1030664/cal-twomeys-phantom-form-guide-top-draft-prospects-september-ranking

Reid, Walter, Duursma, McKercher, Watson, Curtin, Sanders // Caddy

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1009306/cal-twomeys-phantom-form-guide-top-draft-prospects-august-ranking

Reid, Walter, McKercher, Duursma, Watson, Curtin, Sanders // Caddy

https://www.afl.com.au/news/981930/cal-twomeys-2023-phantom-form-guide-top-draft-prospects-july-ranking

Read, Walter, Watson, McKercher, Curtin, Duursma, Caddy // Read, Sanders

 

 

Edited by old55
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Ok I’ll rephrase it. I will be very surprised if Caddy is off the board by our pick. I’ll also be very happy as( on the limited games I watched him in the champs) I don’t rate him as the 7 normally rated above him.

Given the pick before us if the dogs who are stacked for talls and have another f/s tall coming in this draft.
I very greatly doubt they will pick him so he’d have to go top 5.

So the Hawks would have to pick him in front of the likes of Duursma,Curtain, Watson and Sanders. 

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@Demon Dynasty - you can rest easy - if all of Watson, Sanders, Curtin and Caddy are gone by our pick at 7, along with certainties Reid and Walter, that would be a stupendous result because we'd have the choice of McKercher and Duursma. Unfortunately that's not going to happen.

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This weeks Gettable on the AFL website did a mock 20 based on needs ie holes in list -  players to cover etc.

At 7 we bid on Read (GC) and pick O'Sullivan.

Pick 13 we take Wilson. Doubt whether we would pick Wilson. Rookie me profile lists improvements as contested work and strength. Still i am not selecting.

They have Caddy at 9 (GWS), Sanders at 10 (Cats) and Leake at 12 (crows).

I suspect we may try to trade up our pick 11 2 or 3 spots using our 2024 1st and our 2023 pick 42. Doubt we will see any takers.

 

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Hearing that we’re right into Koltyn Tholstrup with this pick. Hard as nails mid/fwd from WA. There’s likely a few names ahead of him on the draft board but if they’re all taken then Koltyn could be our man. Could be a WA double with Curtin firming for us at pick 6.

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7 minutes ago, FTB said:

Hearing that we’re right into Koltyn Tholstrup with this pick. Hard as nails mid/fwd from WA. There’s likely a few names ahead of him on the draft board but if they’re all taken then Koltyn could be our man. Could be a WA double with Curtin firming for us at pick 6.

Yep, just read this on a foxsports article so you could be hearing correctly.

"Powerful Subiaco prospect Koltyn Tholstrup is widely expected to be taken in the first round, with Melbourne considering taking him with its second first-rounder."

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/draft/afl-draft-news-whispers-trade-rumours-2023-riley-hardeman-essendon-taylor-goad-adelaide-nick-watson-hawthorn-where-does-dan-curtin-go-when-bids-will-happen/news-story/a20bec1504d1325bb116f9f24bb02c32

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23 minutes ago, FTB said:

Hearing that we’re right into Koltyn Tholstrup with this pick. Hard as nails mid/fwd from WA. There’s likely a few names ahead of him on the draft board but if they’re all taken then Koltyn could be our man. Could be a WA double with Curtin firming for us at pick 6.

We shouldnt have needed to trade up our original pick to get 11 to make this happen. I dont think its likely unless we trade backward on the night.

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3 minutes ago, Lil_red_fire_engine said:

We shouldnt have needed to trade up our original pick to get 11 to make this happen. I dont think its likely unless we trade backward on the night.

At the time the move was probably for Windsor but now it sounds like he’ll be gone even earlier than we expected 

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1 minute ago, Jeremy said:

At the time the move was probably for Windsor but now it sounds like he’ll be gone even earlier than we expected 

I think there’s a decent chance Windsor is still there at pick 11 and yes, he may be higher than Tholstrup on our draft board.

Multiple phantoms and whispers have O’Sullivan, Caddy, Leake and Wilson as the four players picked between our pick 6 and pick 11.

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Just now, FTB said:

I think there’s a decent chance Windsor is still there at pick 11 and yes, he may be higher than Tholstrup on our draft board.

Multiple phantoms and whispers have O’Sullivan, Caddy, Leake and Wilson as the four players picked between our pick 6 and pick 11.

Yeah there’s definitely a chance Windsor is still there, sounds like if he’s gone it will be Tholstrup we pick (maybe Leake?). Curtin and Tholstrup the two we get? How will the fans react to bringing two WA boys over, at least they’re mates, maybe that’s part of the plan…

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47 minutes ago, FTB said:

Hearing that we’re right into Koltyn Tholstrup with this pick. Hard as nails mid/fwd from WA. There’s likely a few names ahead of him on the draft board but if they’re all taken then Koltyn could be our man. Could be a WA double with Curtin firming for us at pick 6.

Might just be my Melbourne glasses, but parts of Tholstrup’s game remind me Colin Sylvia. 

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