PREGAME: Rd 21 vs North Melbourne

[Binmans PA 26,117]

30 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

Do we NEED to finish 2nd ??  There's no accolade. You DO get a home final..... but at the cost of going hell for leather to get there..  Whilst not often exhibiting tempo during a game perhaps we are with the season itself.

Its a marathon...  you have to pick when.to GO..  

Its interesting..  id be saving a little in the tank for week 1  Sept.

We were gassed by then last year....msybe another thing we've learnt.... we do seem very keen about "learnings" ..

 

Finishing 2nd means we don't leave Victoria. If possible, we'd want to play Port or Brisbane at the MCG in the QF.

[beelzebub 22,225]

16 minutes ago, Sydney_Demon said:

No, we don't need to finish 2nd but it's a significant advantage going into finals compared to 3rd or 4th (although I acknowledge it doesn't guarantee anything. Look at last year). I agree there's no accolade for finishing higher up the ladder, even being minor premiers. But I don't accept that somehow if you play at 90%, concede you aren't going to finish 2nd, that somehow helps your prospects. We were carrying significant injuries last year at season end, weren't able to run out games and that was a factor in us losing our 2 finals but I don't accept that if we'd rested players, not played as hard & finished 4th things would have ended up any differently. You don't flirt with form.

Now, this could all change dependent on results over the next couple of weeks. I do concede if we reach the point when 4th is the best we can finish you might manage some players and/or change game style slightly. But even on this managing players thing, you don't rest players just because you can. You do it if there's a reason to do it, little niggling injuries that can benefit from a week's break etc. I'm happy to leave it up to Melbourne's fitness & medical staff to make those calls rather than pretend I have any expertise or inside knowledge.

If we finish 4th... and Filth 1st..

We have a HOME final ( effectively  ).

I reckon we would get them....again.

Personally...i want THAT game... straight into prelim... another Home game.( with a week to recharge

Id like to see us hone our fwd game....then hit the gas a tad... against sqawkers... notch up against Bloods...

Full throttle against Pies

 

Who knows....

[WalkingCivilWar 31,794]

4 hours ago, OutOfTheCentre21 said:

Any news? 😁😁😁

Last night I saw Fritta Jnr, but not Bayley, it was the youngest Fritta, Darcy. The fun-loving of the two, Bayley being the more reserved and quiet brother. Anyways we didn’t talk footy beyond the blinder Darcy played for Coldstream last weekend where he kicked 5.8 and saved Coldstream from certain relegation. He has signed with the Northern Bullants but returned to help Coldstream. We also talked about nude pillow-fights but that’s for a whole other thread. 😁

Fritta isn’t going to Hobart because even though it’s a short flight, the medics don’t wanna put him on a plane when it’s not necessary. It’s not worth the possibility of compression issues. Despite this, 17 Frittata family and friends are attending the match. And Pauline will probs still hold giant Fritta head up because Pauline. 🥰

According to Pauline though, Clarrie is 100% gonna be available for vs Carlton. No doubt at all. 👍🏽 ❤️💙

Oh and Fritta is still looking on track to be right vs Sydney. He’s itching to get back to playing so he’s doing everything he’s told. We’re lucky to have him - he’s so determined to get out on the park for us. 

Edited August 5, 2023 by WalkingCivilWar

[WalkingCivilWar 31,794]

At Melb airport, taken by a DA member…

Casey on a bye so not surprising that they’re taking everyone to Tassie. Just nice to know he’s looking fit and happy, by all accounts. ❤️💙

[rpfc 27,476]

2 hours ago, binman said:

Yes.

But, personally I'm not a huge fan of the 'if player x comes in, who comes out' game. 

And even less a fan of the more aggro variant 'you can't just say player x comes in without saying who comes out'.

For one thing, statistically I'd be guessing more often than not a best 22 player has to miss any given game thru injury.

And if we are talking finals, we'll that is 6 weeks away. So anything can happen on that front.

And secondly, it doesn't nessarily have to be a like for like swap. Roles can be juggled, particularly in modern footy where you don't have a back or forward six - you have a back 7 or 8 and and forward 7 or 8.

Thirdly, even if a direct swap it will be for a role not a generic position eg forward for forward.

Case in point, Spargo. Spargo, who I firmly believe will come back in by finals, is not in competition for say chandlers spot as even though they ate both small forward,spargs is really only nominally a forward and they play very different roles.

Spargo's role is the high half forward role, which involves running up and down the ground all game and providing defensive cover, an outlet option on transion and the last kick inside 50.

Whereas Chandler's best role is as  pure crumbing, small forward that kicks goal. Of course, like all players he works up and down the ground, but nowhere near to the extent of chandler (and even less again than nibbla).

We don't want Chandler gassed all the time, we want him explosive and ready to pounce. Same goes for koz.

Spargs and nibbla can do the 16-17km per game donkey work that frees up our goal scorers to go to work - a point I have heard tracc make on several occasions.

Re: spargo - I think your belief is going to be shaken. All the Speed Forwards (as they are known to Staffords setup) have different attributes; Spargo would not play like Chandler because he won’t be able to. As you say, Spargo’s value is in his delivery into the forward line, Chandlers is his pressure presence and instincts in the forward line.

Melksham, ANB, Pickett, Chandler, and Spargo would have some consistent KPIs in the team (pressure acts, discipline in zone, kms, contests attended etc) but then they would be judged on the other parts of their game and what they bring (Melksham shut down role or decoy, ANB on stoppage effectiveness assisting CP5 and defensive side contests attended, etc).
 

With Spargo it would be involvement in scoring chains, maybe defensive contests attended, turnover scoring chains involvement, etc

I just don’t think his form with the footy, and when we have the footy, has been good enough this year. And I honestly don’t know who he removes from the team if Oliver and Fritsch are right for finals. 

Edited August 5, 2023 by rpfc

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

4 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

If we finish 4th... and Filth 1st..

We have a HOME final ( effectively  ).

I reckon we would get them....again.

Personally...i want THAT game... straight into prelim... another Home game.( with a week to recharge

Id like to see us hone our fwd game....then hit the gas a tad... against sqawkers... notch up against Bloods...

Full throttle against Pies

 

Who knows....

Fair enough. I like our chances against Collingwood as well, and I think that's the most likely Qualifying Final scenario. FWIW I also like our chances home (especially) or away against both Port & Brisbane. On that basis we are very-well placed right now.

My theory as to why sides don't win from 4th is that, based on ladder position, their path to a Premiership is likely against Teams 1, 5, 2 & 1, which is much harder than the 1st team (4, 3, 2), 2nd team (3, 4, 1), or 3rd team (2, 6, 1 & 2). For the same reasons it's significantly easier to win from 5th than from 6th or 7th. Essentially the main issue for the 4th team is they generally (not this year I hope) lose a tough Qualifier against the best-performed team (away from home), and then have to play a Semi against a team not much more worse-performed than them (5th) that's had a much easier first finals game (an Elimination Final against the 8th team).

Of course all this is affected by the vagaries year-to-year of actual matchups, recent form, injuries, home ground advantage, etc.  I'd say this year that if Collingwood finish top & Melbourne finish 4th the teams are evenly-matched and of course there's no home ground advantage. But whoever loses that Qualifier has a tough run home (including an Away Interstate Prelim).
 

[Binmans PA 26,117]

2 hours ago, Cranky Franky said:

Maybe you missed Max Gawns comment that half a dozen players in last year's finals were "banged up" & carrying injuries.

There seems to be some revisionism going on here.

In 2022, Geelong did not rest all their stars. They rested some of them, when they clearly needed it.

Every player is different though and Geelong's list was much older than ours.

Last year, our players were banged up and pushed through it.

At the end of 2022 and start of 2023, the club spoke of ensuring we managed players better and were able to hit the finals without being banged up. This has always been our aim and we've managed players' TOG throughout the season, and used a greater amount of personnel to give ourselves options at the pointy end.

There is also a load management variable that simply taking a week off for someone like say Viney, means he then has to make it up on the track and risks losing match touch.

We're about to get Clarry back, Jack is a warrior and can take a defensive back seat a bit more with Clarry's inclusion.

As for Max's comments about 2022, has Max said anything about being banged up this year, Cranky?

Max missed a whole heap of games and had Grundy rucking much larger portions this year than Jackson ever did, so last year was last year, and 2023 is a completely different story.

To say selection against North could see us banged up like 2022 is frankly a ridiculous call, not to mention it presumes that load management, injury and our fixture in 2023 was exactly as 2022. It clearly wasn't... we have a much softer run in this year.

2023 looks like North, Carlton, Hawthorn and a struggling Sydney in Sydney. 2022 saw us play Freo in Perth, Collingwood, Carlton and Brisbane at Gabba.

You could only compare the two run ins as similar if you were acting in bad faith.

FWIW, I would have played Grundy this week for Max, but that might have been a bit fancy, and it's much better to maintain continuity, so I can see where the FD is coming from. Then what do you do if Grundy is brilliant? We've made the right call.

Edited August 5, 2023 by A F

[DeeZone 7,768]

Just watching our first encounter Vs Roos earlier this year at the G great 1st quarter 8.2 - 1.0 but they played much better in the second we are 10.3 - 1.0 with 8 minutes to go. They are trying to play keepies off and they have slowed us down. Can’t wait to get Clayton back, I remember when we were watching the game live we were so dominant that we got a bit restless and then a bit angry when they kicked 3.0 in red time and got the margin back below 100 points. Lol.!!!

[spirit of norm smith 12,919]

My little trip down to Tassie. Interstate record this year needs improving. Hopefully starting tomorrow 

[demon3165 1,918]

1 hour ago, beelzebub said:

If we finish 4th... and Filth 1st..

We have a HOME final ( effectively  ).

I reckon we would get them....again.

Personally...i want THAT game... straight into prelim... another Home game.( with a week to recharge

Id like to see us hone our fwd game....then hit the gas a tad... against sqawkers... notch up against Bloods...

Full throttle against Pies

 

Who knows....

Last week was the best forward line entries for the year and if they can keep improving that area then things change regarding premiership hopes, they still need to improve their first options and skill but it was good to see, now the roos will flood the backline and it will be interesting to see how they handle it.

[Sydee 3,617]

3 hours ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Who are they?

I am always a bit reluctant to drop names when not being positive but if you really must know who I think is less reliable than McVee 

May - great defender but he is prone to the odd Clanger kick leading to easy goals - he is also nowhere near as assured as McVee when the ball is on the ground

Rivers - love him as a player and think his disposal has improved greatly this season but still can be hit and miss when he tries to pinpoint targets. His marking has improved significantly and is now taking plenty of important intercept marks to complement Lever  

Gus - has his moments - rather the ball in McVees hands in lots of traffic and when a quick decision is required though 

Lever - his kicking is not the weapon that Judd has imo nor does he run and create as well , but that’s not his role to be fair 

Others

Bowey generally very reliable disposing 

Salem see Bowey 

Hibberd similar to the two above imo 

[red&blue for ever 14]

Ferries are running for the game tomorrow leaving Hobart 11:15 then every 30 minutes. Free if you have a ticket for the game 

[Cranky Franky 1,486]

26 minutes ago, A F said:

There seems to be some revisionism going on here.

In 2022, Geelong did not rest all their stars. They rested some of them, when they clearly needed it.

Every player is different though and Geelong's list was much older than ours.

Last year, our players were banged up and pushed through it.

At the end of 2022 and start of 2023, the club spoke of ensuring we managed players better and were able to hit the finals without being banged up. This has always been our aim and we've managed players' TOG throughout the season, and used a greater amount of personnel to give ourselves options at the pointy end.

There is also a load management variable that simply taking a week off for someone like say Viney, means he then has to make it up on the track and risks losing match touch.

We're about to get Clarry back, Jack is a warrior and can take a defensive back seat a bit more with Clarry's inclusion.

As for Max's comments about 2022, has Max said anything about being banged up this year, Cranky?

 

I think we may be at cross purposes.

My comments relate to 2022 where the BT totally mismanaged the players who were out of form and/or injured and cost us any chance in the finals.

I hope they have learned from 2022 & don't repeat the mistakes.

[Binmans PA 26,117]

Just now, Cranky Franky said:

I think we may be at cross purposes.

My comments relate to 2022 where the BT totally mismanaged the players who were out of form and/or injured and cost us any chance in the finals.

I hope they have learned from 2022 & don't repeat the mistakes.

We got unlucky with injury too... and clearly they've learnt from it. Look how many more personnel changes we've had this year in comparison to last.

Look at the amount of experimentation we've done with playing different personnel combinations.

Chalk and cheese.

[Fromgotowoewodin 729]

1 hour ago, rpfc said:

Re: spargo - I think your belief is going to be shaken. All the Speed Forwards (as they are known to Staffords setup) have different attributes; Spargo would not play like Chandler because he won’t be able to. As you say, Spargo’s value is in his delivery into the forward line, Chandlers is his pressure presence and instincts in the forward line.

Melksham, ANB, Pickett, Chandler, and Spargo would have some consistent KPIs in the team (pressure acts, discipline in zone, kms, contests attended etc) but then they would be judged on the other parts of their game and what they bring (Melksham shut down role or decoy, ANB on stoppage effectiveness assisting CP5 and defensive side contests attended, etc).
 

With Spargo it would be involvement in scoring chains, maybe defensive contests attended, turnover scoring chains involvement, etc

I just don’t think his form with the footy, and when we have the footy, has been good enough this year. And I honestly don’t know who he removes from the team if Oliver and Fritsch are right for finals. 

Tend to agree that Charleston is not looking best 22 at the moment. My read up until the last few weeks was that he was rusted-on, best 22 in Goody’s mind but it looks now like he’s slipped down the list a bit. 

All 25 games in flag year, all 24 last year but only 13/20 this year - 3 to go but it would look like he’s running out of time to get back in before finals. We’re still working on the forward line but I’d think if he was in he’d be in by now and the experiments can happen around him. That he hasn’t been in the mix seems to indicate he needs someone else to drop form or get injured. 

[Demondan75 179]

3 hours ago, WheeloRatings said:

Apparently 3:30 at Blundstone Arena, entry via western gates, according to a post on Facebook. No player signing as they are on a tight schedule.

Thankyou Wheelo, legend!!!

[binman 38,134]

2 hours ago, rpfc said:

Re: spargo - I think your belief is going to be shaken. All the Speed Forwards (as they are known to Staffords setup) have different attributes; Spargo would not play like Chandler because he won’t be able to. As you say, Spargo’s value is in his delivery into the forward line, Chandlers is his pressure presence and instincts in the forward line.

Melksham, ANB, Pickett, Chandler, and Spargo would have some consistent KPIs in the team (pressure acts, discipline in zone, kms, contests attended etc) but then they would be judged on the other parts of their game and what they bring (Melksham shut down role or decoy, ANB on stoppage effectiveness assisting CP5 and defensive side contests attended, etc).
 

With Spargo it would be involvement in scoring chains, maybe defensive contests attended, turnover scoring chains involvement, etc

I just don’t think his form with the footy, and when we have the footy, has been good enough this year. And I honestly don’t know who he removes from the team if Oliver and Fritsch are right for finals. 

All good points, well made.

My thinking abour spargo coming back in as much about what I think goody will do, rather than my own assessment of him.

My gut feel is he has been at vfl level to work on his tank and get it to the level it needs to be to play the role tmac says is 'by far the hardest in football'.

[Go Lordie 260]

3 hours ago, Sydney_Demon said:

Fair enough. I like our chances against Collingwood as well, and I think that's the most likely Qualifying Final scenario. FWIW I also like our chances home (especially) or away against both Port & Brisbane. On that basis we are very-well placed right now.

My theory as to why sides don't win from 4th is that, based on ladder position, their path to a Premiership is likely against Teams 1, 5, 2 & 1, which is much harder than the 1st team (4, 3, 2), 2nd team (3, 4, 1), or 3rd team (2, 6, 1 & 2). For the same reasons it's significantly easier to win from 5th than from 6th or 7th. Essentially the main issue for the 4th team is they generally (not this year I hope) lose a tough Qualifier against the best-performed team (away from home), and then have to play a Semi against a team not much more worse-performed than them (5th) that's had a much easier first finals game (an Elimination Final against the 8th team).

Of course all this is affected by the vagaries year-to-year of actual matchups, recent form, injuries, home ground advantage, etc.  I'd say this year that if Collingwood finish top & Melbourne finish 4th the teams are evenly-matched and of course there's no home ground advantage. But whoever loses that Qualifier has a tough run home (including an Away Interstate Prelim).
 

I feel pretty confident about facing up to Collingwood, too, even if they did have a virus earlier in the season when we did beat them. I think our faster pace of play this year - which does concede more goals - has been designed to counter Collingwood's faster game pace. And have you noticed how we have come from behind in Q4 in the last few games? No-one in the media seems to have noticed, so keep it quiet. As for home ground advantage, if we (4th) have to play Collingwood (1st) at the 'G, I don't think it will be even-steven. I suspect there will be more Collingwood supporters making more noise than us - there are ALWAYS more Collingwood supporters. To counter this, our boys need to get in front and stay there.  

[Ithinkimgawnalever 84]

7 hours ago, binman said:

Yes.

But, personally I'm not a huge fan of the 'if player x comes in, who comes out' game. 

And even less a fan of the more aggro variant 'you can't just say player x comes in without saying who comes out'.

For one thing, statistically I'd be guessing more often than not a best 22 player has to miss any given game thru injury.

And if we are talking finals, we'll that is 6 weeks away. So anything can happen on that front.

And secondly, it doesn't nessarily have to be a like for like swap. Roles can be juggled, particularly in modern footy where you don't have a back or forward six - you have a back 7 or 8 and and forward 7 or 8.

Thirdly, even if a direct swap it will be for a role not a generic position eg forward for forward.

Case in point, Spargo. Spargo, who I firmly believe will come back in by finals, is not in competition for say chandlers spot as even though they ate both small forward,spargs is really only nominally a forward and they play very different roles.

Spargo's role is the high half forward role, which involves running up and down the ground all game and providing defensive cover, an outlet option on transion and the last kick inside 50.

Whereas Chandler's best role is as  pure crumbing, small forward that kicks goal. Of course, like all players he works up and down the ground, but nowhere near to the extent of chandler (and even less again than nibbla).

We don't want Chandler gassed all the time, we want him explosive and ready to pounce. Same goes for koz.

Spargs and nibbla can do the 16-17km per game donkey work that frees up our goal scorers to go to work - a point I have heard tracc make on several occasions.

Couldn’t agree more

[dees189227 10,776]

Anyone know what time the gates open tomorrow?

[Flag 2021 141]

I freely admit that I was sceptical about Milkshake's return after the Fritta injury but he has established himself as an integral part of our (recently) developed forward structure.

So much so that - and I know I'll cop  it for saying this - Jake should remain in the side instead of him.

He apples more pressure than Fritta fo one thing and for another we should not try to squeeze Fritta back into a fully functioning forward setup. Can't [play them both in the same team for mine.  Besides, Jake can't be far off 100 games for us.

And on a completely unrelated topic : will Richmond be in trouble for tanking this round. They pulled Cotchin which is maybe OK but Dusty? Resting him at this stage of the year? Come off i!

[rpfc 27,476]

3 hours ago, binman said:

All good points, well made.

My thinking abour spargo coming back in as much about what I think goody will do, rather than my own assessment of him.

My gut feel is he has been at vfl level to work on his tank and get it to the level it needs to be to play the role tmac says is 'by far the hardest in football'.

That’s fair. And he may be down to work on things that circumstances dictate he may never get to redeem because of various things that Goodwin may not have foreseen; the form of others and a new structure that highlights ‘medium’ forwards more predominantly.

Which means you could be right but never validated. Another one of those felines from Schrödinger.

[rpfc 27,476]

1 hour ago, Flag 2021 said:

I freely admit that I was sceptical about Milkshake's return after the Fritta injury but he has established himself as an integral part of our (recently) developed forward structure.

So much so that - and I know I'll cop  it for saying this - Jake should remain in the side instead of him.

He apples more pressure than Fritta fo one thing and for another we should not try to squeeze Fritta back into a fully functioning forward setup. Can't [play them both in the same team for mine.  Besides, Jake can't be far off 100 games for us.

And on a completely unrelated topic : will Richmond be in trouble for tanking this round. They pulled Cotchin which is maybe OK but Dusty? Resting him at this stage of the year? Come off i!

Not many have defended Melkshams possible roles in this team over the year and he has been just great the last 6 weeks. But Fritsch is a match winner and our best forward. He was obviously playing with a foot injury that then gave way so his form was down on previous output. 

I wonder if Fritsch can come in at the expense of someone other than Melksham but if Bayley is ready to go - we have to find a spot for him.

[titan_uranus 22,365]

So far this week, Essendon nearly lost to West Coast, Collingwood lost to Hawthorn and Geelong is struggling to beat Port Adelaide at GMHBA despite Port Adelaide missing a heap of good players.

I don't want us taking this game lightly, as some sort of experiment or fitness training run. I want our form peaking, not starting to slide like (potentially) Collingwood.

I get that it's North Melbourne, and I get that rationally this is nothing but MFCSS, but with Clarkson back and Ziebell announcing his retirement, and having just watched West Coast and Hawthorn play two of their best games of the year, who knows what might be sparked in them.

[titan_uranus 22,365]

9 hours ago, A F said:

Finishing 2nd means we don't leave Victoria. If possible, we'd want to play Port or Brisbane at the MCG in the QF.

Not necessarily. If Brisbane/Port beat Collingwood in the first final and we lose our first final, we'd have an away prelim.

Finishing 2nd gives us two guaranteed MCG home finals, and is clearly better than finishing 3rd or 4th and risking an interstate trip in the first week.

8 hours ago, rpfc said:

Re: spargo - I think your belief is going to be shaken. All the Speed Forwards (as they are known to Staffords setup) have different attributes; Spargo would not play like Chandler because he won’t be able to. As you say, Spargo’s value is in his delivery into the forward line, Chandlers is his pressure presence and instincts in the forward line.

Melksham, ANB, Pickett, Chandler, and Spargo would have some consistent KPIs in the team (pressure acts, discipline in zone, kms, contests attended etc) but then they would be judged on the other parts of their game and what they bring (Melksham shut down role or decoy, ANB on stoppage effectiveness assisting CP5 and defensive side contests attended, etc).
 

With Spargo it would be involvement in scoring chains, maybe defensive contests attended, turnover scoring chains involvement, etc

I just don’t think his form with the footy, and when we have the footy, has been good enough this year. And I honestly don’t know who he removes from the team if Oliver and Fritsch are right for finals. 

I agree.

I don't think Spargo's form this year has been good enough, and I think the FD accepts that.

I don't think it's just a matter of him needing to work on his tank. I just don't think he's best 23 in the FD's minds right now.

@binman doesn't like the "aggro" "who comes out to bring him in" argument - I don't agree with that view, I think that question is valid. Who comes out of the current side to bring Spargo back in the final three weeks and/or finals? Whoever he replaces, we lose whatever their contribution is. So, if it's Chandler, we lose his pressure, goal-kicking and speed to bring in Spargo's running, link-up play and good distribution inside 50. Similarly if it's Jordon, we lose a midfield rotation (which I am against).