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We trade out our future first round pick during the player trade period.  It has generally served us well.

But is it so wise to trade that early now with draft night trading?

According to reports, in recent years we have tried to trade up on draft night for Zac Butters, Max Holmes and maybe others.  Because our 1st future pick was gone earlier, in the player trade period we couldn't add any future picks to our draft night offer to climb the order to get them.

While we have mastered trading picks and moving up the order generally I'm not sure we have kept an eye on having flexibility draft night.

So two questions:

  • Should we continue to trade out our future 1st?
  • Should we keep it and our powder dry for draft night?
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I raise this as it seems to me we need to add some pointy end talent with good skills and footy IQ and fill list gaps.

It may take a few drafts as Sydney now holds our 2022 first pick #14.

Drafting reports are starting to say that clubs will trade out their 2022 picks for 2023 as it has more top end talent. 

The Jackson trade may help if we get and keep some good draft picks.

I would like to see us keep our 2023 first pick unless we get a deal we can't refuse.

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2 minutes ago, rpfc said:

We have always got back into the 1st round so this isn’t a ‘selling our future’ problem.

Also, we are in ‘win this decade’ mode so yeah it’s fine.

Agreed we do get back into the first round but in the last few years our picks have been in the high teens which blow out furthre depending on F/S and Academy players so we miss out on the cream.  Not that I think draft picks are the be all end all.  Just that the odds of a very good player are much better higher up.

Just not sure that high first round picks are the best value for giving up future picks.

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Just rumour, but what I've hear is that we'll be going a bit younger for the next 2 years. Partly to have more young talent coming through, partly to fit in around the contracts we've been getting done and need to get done in the next year or two.

Would be pretty surprised if we traded away our picks for players. Might be some pick splits etc that become part of that, but outside of maybe 1 or 2 key targets I don't think we'll be huge players in the trade period in terms of bringing in players.

 

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9 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

Just rumour, but what I've hear is that we'll be going a bit younger for the next 2 years. Partly to have more young talent coming through, partly to fit in around the contracts we've been getting done and need to get done in the next year or two.

Would be pretty surprised if we traded away our picks for players. Might be some pick splits etc that become part of that, but outside of maybe 1 or 2 key targets I don't think we'll be huge players in the trade period in terms of bringing in players.

 

That makes sense in terms of our list demo and recent scaled contracts.

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13 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Agreed we do get back into the first round but in the last few years our picks have been in the high teens which blow out furthre depending on F/S and Academy players so we miss out on the cream.  Not that I think draft picks are the be all end all.  Just that the odds of a very good player are much better higher up.

Just not sure that high first round picks are the best value for giving up future picks.

When it comes to academy stuff, the Mac Andrew thing really burns my waffles.

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Our window is open now.

If we can get players who can get us a flag while we are a genuine contender for the next few years, then we should go for it. Especially if they are a forward.

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Trading future firsts has been great for us but there are risks involved that need to be considered. 

The benefit is that we get a player in a year earlier and are able to give them 12 months development in our system.

The risk is that we may tumble down the ladder and give up a high draft pick. 

The risk was lower this year due to our playing list being relatively well placed to finish higher up the ladder this year.

We are now at the point that we will need to play some more developing players, both for nessissity and due to the players at Casey banging the door down.

I'm not sure the risk is worth it this time unless we can get a top 10 pick.

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52 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

We trade out our future first round pick during the player trade period.  It has generally served us well.

But is it so wise to trade that early now with draft night trading?

According to reports, in recent years we have tried to trade up on draft night for Zac Butters, Max Holmes and maybe others.  Because our 1st future pick was gone earlier, in the player trade period we couldn't add any future picks to our draft night offer to climb the order to get them.

While we have mastered trading picks and moving up the order generally I'm not sure we have kept an eye on having flexibility draft night.

So two questions:

  • Should we continue to trade out our future 1st?
  • Should we keep it and our powder dry for draft night?

I want 2 keep our first pick for 23 as next year is supposed to be a bumper crop

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When we did the Weideman and Pickett deals we bet on ourselves winning our way from lowly ladder positions to mid table to justify those deals. 
 

Now we’re at the top we have to win a lot just to break even. 

We more than did that with Bowey/Laurie. Unfortunately the groundhog is stuck in second gear but value wise that was worth it.

This year we’ve now ended up sending our first pick to Sydney via Adelaide for JVR. Pick 19 in for a pick that probably ends up at 14 or 15. Not a huge deal, and easy to say it’s worth it for a much needed key forward with a year of development. 4 pick slide is a pretty good interest rate in this economy.

But without the 10 game win streak to start the year we might’ve finished outside or barely in the 8. And giving away a pick around 10 for pick 19 would’ve been nasty. Most years a gem falls around the 10 mark.

You don’t want to be giving up a pick on the edges of the top 10 that gets to pick right after all the bad teams pick, to then pick after all the good clubs have had a go in the late teens.

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19 minutes ago, cantstandyasam said:

I want 2 keep our first pick for 23 as next year is supposed to be a bumper crop

That gets said every year, and honestly I think it’s only been right once in the last 20 years which was the ‘18 draft.

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I don’t know how we will get them but badly need a tall key forward/ruck and strong mobile forward to support JVR and Fritsch going forward. Cost us a final last night.

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Like everything, depends on what value is offered.  IF we could find a strong CHF or a strong forward ruck (not saying we can) then of course that is our need right now and we should take it.  🤞

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8 minutes ago, Queanbeyan Demon said:

Next year is bumper DS. And just to let you know, so is '24. 25 and 26. 

In September next year ‘24 will be the draft, then in September ‘24 everyone will want ‘25. It’s always the way. 

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Where do we end up finishing on the ladder after finals? 5th or 6th?

The JVR trade will end up being Pick 17 (19 after academy father sons) for Pick 13 or 14. 

Caveat: There are more little details to this trade but essentially it is the above.

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If Luke Jackson is to leave, I’d very much like the club to try and figure out a way to get Cadman.

Aside from Richmond poaching Lynch, most quality KPF’s come via the draft. We have JVR, but we need at least a 2-pronged attack. 

This year has shown that even with ruck dominance, it doesn’t necessarily lead to quality clearances (not for us anyway). Sure Petty could be an answer up forward, but he is a quality KPD, with lots of improvement still left in him. No point robbing Peter to pay Paul.

JVR and Cadman will take a few years, but you could build a forward line around that for a decade (providing development goes well - we’ve been half decent at that lately). Good midfielders are a dime a dozen, backlines only need to nullify the contest, rucks appear to be becoming less integral. You’ve got to be able to kick winning scores, and we were pathetic at doing so for the majority of the back half of the year.

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Our Draft hand this year atm. 32, 41, 50, 63, 68

1st Round  - Nill

2nd Round - 32 (Melb) 584 points. 

3rd Round - 41 (Adelaide) 412 points , 50 (Melb) 273 points

4th Round - 63 (Saints) 112 points , 68 (Melb) 59 points

Combined Points - 1,440

 

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My gut says that if Jackson goes we will try to go to draft night with one top-10 pick and also be in a position to live-trade to secure a specific player we like.

Most of the live trading is pre-agreed thresholds, like 'If the player you want is still available at our pick 12, but the player we were hoping for isn't and our other options might still be available at a later pick, we are willing to trade our 12 for your 17 and 32' and a thousand other variations.

It is 4d chess on a timer and will one day be a job for AI. Heh, I can see it now; every club plugs in their priorities and the AI just calculates all the best trades so that everyone gets the most possible value out of the draft.

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2 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

Heh, I can see it now; every club plugs in their priorities and the AI just calculates all the best trades so that everyone gets the most possible value out of the draft.

Would be interesting to see what the outcome would be if every club listed the same top 3 draft prospects.

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I think we will have a much better idea what we want to do with it after the grand final. If Kynan Brown has a day out in the U17 game, our first rounder might not be useful for us. 

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Apparently 2023 Draft is going to be a ripper,  and the draft watchers are saying alot of clubs will try a trade out of this year and into next year,  so maybe not.  But if we get a first rounder this year for Jackson then maybe we trade that.

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