Numbers

[Rivers Run Red 187]

The beauty is, 8 teams are making up the numbers until someone wins it. And I'd rather be one of those 8 teams.

[D4Life 2,474]

4 minutes ago, JimmyGadson said:

Also.

I did the ladder predictor.

Two wins from the last four against Collingwood and Carlton still had us finishing second which was interesting.

However that was dependant on a couple of losses from Brissy against sides that could beat them and maybe one or two other losses that are more like 50/50 games. No upsets.

There you go Jimmy, I didn’t think you had it in you to be glass half full after reading your posts over last few years.

Dogs played out of their skins and with an extra player in the 2nd half wearing yellow they just got us as we tired off our 6 day break and if Kossie kicks his last shot, we would have hung on.

If we win 2 or 3 of our last four we will finish second and even finishing fourth and playing Cats is fine.

There is a big difference between H&A and finals - unrelenting pressure. Our Demons showed last year we can do it and that has earned my trust in us giving it another red hot crack come September.

Last night positives for me was some of Max’s tap work was superb in the middle, leading to fast breaks and scoring. Frittata 1st half, Trac showing some signs of form. Weid also did some good things, faded a bit, but 2nd half ball was in Dogs forward half a lot.

Looked like half the team have major room for improvement. Bowey & Chandler both played well in VFL so putting some pressure on for selection plus Lever & BBB to come back.

Fortunately we are well enough placed to rest BBB and Lever so they will be ok for the finals. BBB plays next four then gets a week to rest his knee pre finals.

I’m an optimist but prior to what we did in last years finals would have been a big gloomy after last 8 weeks, but Demons play finals footy. How Dogs played last night Won’t  win finals footy at the G, as under extra pressure will fall over.

Come on Demons supporters show some faith in our team and FD, they brought us a flag last year and Goody has developed a team and style suited to winning finals.

Go Demons.

[Deemania since 56 6,637]

11 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

We're not winning it this year. Have accepted this for a number of weeks.. 

Far too many concerns in all positions of the ground and we are not even close to rectifying them at all.

Agreed. The losses mount, there has been no significant 'blooding' of a series of potential prospects across the season except for those who have withered on the vine a little due to inexperienced exhaustion - such as Bowey and a few others. Even our stars have been under some turmoil to play the same/same to extremely high standards without true support.

[praha 11,240]

10 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Who is winning it then?

Geelong who just scraped past Port?

Brisbane who lost to Essendon a couple of weeks back?

Freo who drew with Richmond last night?

Collingwood who just scraped past North and Adelaide in successive weeks?

Carlton who still look a year away and have fallen at most challenges they've faced this year?

Sydney who have been flakey and up and down all year?

There are no dominant teams this year. Yeah we haven't performed to the level you'd hope and have been inconsistent across games but we still have the star power to turn it on in September. Obviously this is not to say we will but we will give ourselves a crack. To say we are just making up the numbers is insulting.

Just like 2016, this is the exact type of year where a team outside the top 4 can win it. The Dogs were only two games and % off 1st. Last year it was a SIX game difference between 1st and 7th. This year could well see only a 2-3 game difference and maybe only 10-15% difference which in the 110%+ range is not much.

Our best is imo still miles ahead of everyone. If I were a betting man I'd actually tip a Geelong vs Collingwood GF but any teams still in past the first week of finals are a chance. If finals were today, and any one of Sydney, Collingwood, Carlton or Bulldogs win their Elimination final, they are ALL a legit chance against one of Geelong, Melbourne, Freo and Brisbane in the second week. Ditto for Prelim.

Compare that to last year. Essendon, GWS were making up the numbers. Brisbane was never a legit threat and Port were always pretenders. 

I could genuinely see any team within the top 8 steal a flag this year.

The ONE thing in our favour atm is that even with us not playing well, we are still in with a chance to win games where we've lost. The competition is incredibly tight from 1st to 8th.

It's no one's to lose and everybody's to win.

Edited July 24, 2022 by praha

[Age 485]

Looking at our draw and the way we are playing, we will scrape into 6/7 only to lose in the first week. 
 

I think we have to start looking at some of the kids we have to see if they are up to it as we are losing braysure and Jackson at the end of the year. Also need to look out fitness team as we have looked so tired all year, there is something not right there after losing burgess. 
 

only issue now is that with Carlton, pies, dockers and swans being younger and improving, I think we have missed our window for multiple flags. 

at least we got one, even though without actually being there to see it, still doesn’t reallly feel like a real premiership, which is so Melbourne!

[Dr. Gonzo 24,216]

6 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

Really hope it does, but we don’t look like we have another gear. Last year we were there abouts and it all gloriously came together. 
This year I reckon we have looked and felt much more disconnected and disorganised. 
As I’ve said, I hope you all quote this in two months time and call me a nonce, but I’ve not seen cause for optimism in a run for quite a long while.

I see those issues with us as well but I'm giving the team the opportunity to succeed first before writing them off. I think they've earnt that over the past two seasons.

[Macca 16,969]

So much depends on whether we win next week against Freo ... win and the numbers are in our favour.  We'd gain confidence from a win on the road and suddenly, our last 3 games won't look as difficult

Win and we'd probably still be in a top 2 position and be in a position to defend that position

But if we lose the numbers will be against us and we'd then need to win our remaining games (or at least 2 of the 3) and be relying on other teams dropping games

Lose and we could (in theory) slip to 5th by the end of next week's round of games.  Forget the ladder predictor, we cannot assume that the good teams will lose games (unless the good teams are playing each other)

Lose and that will mark 6 losses from our last 9 games.  Do teams win flags with that sort of mid year win/loss ratio? 

We are still top 2 and we can't be happy about settling for a top 4 spot instead ... that's a defeatest attitude.  Once you start believing that a loss isn't too bad, you've lost the battle

Edited July 24, 2022 by Macca

[spirit of norm smith 16,457]

12 hours ago, Colin B. Flaubert said:

Can it happen? Yes.

Will it happen? I'm not confident.

No way we are going into September with the momentum we had last year. Come final round last year against the Cats and Max's goal after the siren, it was pretty clear that we were most likely on our way to a premiership. 

Our best hope is to win two of the last 4. 15 and 7 should put us in striking range. But we will need a massive turnaround on what we've been doing to go back to back.

Agree 

Agree

But I’m still wondering which 2 games will we win ?  Can’t see it right now. Winning 2 is probably optimistic!! 😭😭

[spirit of norm smith 16,457]

3 minutes ago, Macca said:

Once you start believing that a loss isn't too bad, you've lost the battle

Agree. We’ve lost the “eye of the tiger”.  We are not sharp. Hungry.  

[one_demon 826]

I don't think we're winning it this year either, however we've had a number of players out of form for a number of weeks.  If they hit form,  anything's possible.

[Macca 16,969]

1 hour ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Agree. We’ve lost the “eye of the tiger”.  We are not sharp. Hungry.  

You've taken me out of context with my comment that a team can't accept that a loss isn't too bad.  I meant it in the sense that that sort of thinking 'can' occur

So we haven't developed a defeatest nature ... our issues are of a technical sense (right now)

The issues I believe the team has (over the past 2 months) is that we often look slow and tired and our forward line structure is often dysfunctional

I'm not concerned about our backline & midfield because we know how good those areas can be

The ladder tells us we are still 2nd on the ladder and that is a position of strength

So we need to go out and defend that position

We're not done yet but again, we just have to win against Freo

Edited July 24, 2022 by Macca

[Macca 16,969]

The other concern where the numbers are racking up is us losing from winning positions

For the most part of the first half of this season, we'd get out to a comfortable lead and then lock the game down in the last quarter's.  Smart footy and we saved our legs when we did that

Could it be that the MC were reading the signs of fatigue early?  A fail-safe move?

But in the last 2 months we've done the same but then we've got overun in the 2nd half's (on 5 occasions)

Edited July 24, 2022 by Macca

[58er 6,439]

3 hours ago, JimmyGadson said:

Who wrote that?

Or are you exaggerating for a change?

 

We are not in the same type of form as those around us. And history shows that the teams who are in form in the last month of footy are the ones that win it. No team in the history of the game have one the flag without being in form before september.

So based on that, time is running out.

Dogs 2016  think they lost in August  at least 2 or 3 games. 

[Clayton spirit 257]

I still believe in us enough that we can knock off freo or Brisbane over there. But yeah, we are not gonna flick a switch and win it out of the top 4. A lot fell into place last year, good health, easy draw after missing finals  2020.

It's a shame we had the 10-0 start to get our hopes up rather than have losses dispersed throughout the year

[rjay 24,928]

3 hours ago, JimmyGadson said:

Who wrote that?

Or are you exaggerating for a change?

 

We are not in the same type of form as those around us. And history shows that the teams who are in form in the last month of footy are the ones that win it. No team in the history of the game have one the flag without being in form before september.

So based on that, time is running out.

I suppose the teams that win it have been in form sometime through the season...

Not well written there 'Jimmy'.

Without going back through the seasons if your call is no team in history before September meaning August...for one we haven't got to the last month yet.

...and premiership teams have lost games (out of form) in August...

It's an over exaggeration by you and simply not true.

[Bobby McKenzie 2,385]

21 hours ago, Gorgoroth said:

Seriously though.

We are not a dominant side. We are a side that relies on non game day coaching to win. 
pretty much all our players are worse or breaking even on last year, I think our coaching is worse than last year. 
been thinking it for a while but we won’t pass prelim week if we even make that. 
Last year was a epic run. No repeats here. 
 

truly hope I am wrong. Time will tell.

Have faith.  You don't lose natural ability and skill overnight. Let's see what happens in the next few weeks.

[tiers 2,838]

What I remember most about the images of Goody coaching through the grand final was his calm and consistent approach to each player when they came off for their interchange.

He seems to coach a system where each player knows and understands his role and his comments were a reminder that this was the correct approach. That it is not working as well this year is probably attributable to other teams planning against the system and, possibly more importantly, our inability to retain a consistent team due predominantly to the disruptions caused by injury.

For me, I waited the full 57 years so I am sated and can take a more relaxed view. For most others, the season is not over yet and there is still time for the bits to come together.

GO GOODY GO DEES.

 

[At the break of Gawn 4,460]

We might not win it this year, but there’s no way Collingwood are getting anywhere near it.

Have had an almighty soft draw and unbelievably lucky to sneak some of those wins.

[Supermercado 2,797]

My favourite number was zero forward 50 tackles. 

[P-man 13,366]

6 minutes ago, Supermercado said:

My favourite number was zero forward 50 tackles. 

 Beat me to it. The AFL average is 10. Swans had 22 against Adelaide. We had goose egg.

In a weird way that gives me cause for hope cause the scope for improvement is so huge. We put ourselves in a position to win  with a pretty non-existent forward half defense. The only way is up.

[Supermercado 2,797]

43 minutes ago, P-man said:

 Beat me to it. The AFL average is 10. Swans had 22 against Adelaide. We had goose egg.

In a weird way that gives me cause for hope cause the scope for improvement is so huge. We put ourselves in a position to win  with a pretty non-existent forward half defense. The only way is up.

It's such an outrageous figure I'm waiting for Champion Data to reveal they forgot to punch a number in.

Mind you, the last time I can find this happening in a full length game is Richmond in R23, 2019 and they won the game, then the flag so who knows how relevant it is.

[Gorgoroth 12,950]

10 hours ago, Bobby McKenzie said:

Have faith.  You don't lose natural ability and skill overnight. Let's see what happens in the next few weeks.

I have had faith. 
I wanted to write this a long time ago.

I freely admit, I’m not a massive Goodwin fan, I think during the week he is a very good coach, I reckon on game day he is too stagnant and will follow his theory on game play right to the end even when we are getting spanked. I’ve never thought his in game coaching good. 
Our selection has been poor, we have continually tried to run too many talls, we can replace Tmac with a tall, he ran and pressured more like a mid than tall. Our best games have been with a smaller forward line. 

Your point on skill and ability is right, but we haven’t lost it overnight, we lost it ages ago. We dominated on pressure last year, this year we are being dominated and flustered by others pressure and game plans and we are panicking and butchering the ball. 
we know Goodwin won’t change the game style so unless we get a massive lead early we are pushing feces up the creek.even then we have let teams come from big leads multiple times this year.

 

[Demon17 5,188]

18 hours ago, 58er said:

Dogs 2016  think they lost in August  at least 2 or 3 games. 

Lats four game sin 2016 for the Dogs were :

Round 19   Loss to cats  at Kardinia park (so doesn't count)

round 20   Win against Kangas  marvel

Round 21  Win against Pies   Marvel

Round 22   win against Bombers   Marvel

Round 23  Loss to freo   Perth

Finished 7th with 115% (hardly inspiring)

FINALS,  week 1 beat eagles in Perth, week 2 beat  Hawks at MCG , week 3 beat GWS in Sydney (PF)

Pretty heroic final effort really.

[layzie 33,805]

21 hours ago, D4Life said:

There you go Jimmy, I didn’t think you had it in you to be glass half full after reading your posts over last few years.

Dogs played out of their skins and with an extra player in the 2nd half wearing yellow they just got us as we tired off our 6 day break and if Kossie kicks his last shot, we would have hung on.

If we win 2 or 3 of our last four we will finish second and even finishing fourth and playing Cats is fine.

There is a big difference between H&A and finals - unrelenting pressure. Our Demons showed last year we can do it and that has earned my trust in us giving it another red hot crack come September.

Last night positives for me was some of Max’s tap work was superb in the middle, leading to fast breaks and scoring. Frittata 1st half, Trac showing some signs of form. Weid also did some good things, faded a bit, but 2nd half ball was in Dogs forward half a lot.

Looked like half the team have major room for improvement. Bowey & Chandler both played well in VFL so putting some pressure on for selection plus Lever & BBB to come back.

Fortunately we are well enough placed to rest BBB and Lever so they will be ok for the finals. BBB plays next four then gets a week to rest his knee pre finals.

I’m an optimist but prior to what we did in last years finals would have been a big gloomy after last 8 weeks, but Demons play finals footy. How Dogs played last night Won’t  win finals footy at the G, as under extra pressure will fall over.

Come on Demons supporters show some faith in our team and FD, they brought us a flag last year and Goody has developed a team and style suited to winning finals.

Go Demons.

I always believed in him, sort of. 

[dazzledavey36 54,938]

3 hours ago, Gorgoroth said:

I have had faith. 
I wanted to write this a long time ago.

I freely admit, I’m not a massive Goodwin fan, I think during the week he is a very good coach, I reckon on game day he is too stagnant and will follow his theory on game play right to the end even when we are getting spanked. I’ve never thought his in game coaching good. 
Our selection has been poor, we have continually tried to run too many talls, we can replace Tmac with a tall, he ran and pressured more like a mid than tall. Our best games have been with a smaller forward line. 

Your point on skill and ability is right, but we haven’t lost it overnight, we lost it ages ago. We dominated on pressure last year, this year we are being dominated and flustered by others pressure and game plans and we are panicking and butchering the ball. 
we know Goodwin won’t change the game style so unless we get a massive lead early we are pushing feces up the creek.even then we have let teams come from big leads multiple times this year.

 

This is absolutely spot on, and I hope you don't cop stick for it from the usual rosy glasses suspects. 

I'm a fan of Goody and have been since day dot. But he's coaching this year has frustrated me more then ever purely with everything you have stated.

I was hoping by now we would have seen some tweaks in the game plan after we got exposed through a few of those early losses, but I've seen nothing to suggest otherwise and this what concerns me the most. If we're not willing to tweak the game plan now then we're in big trouble come September. 

The continued rolling door selections of the likes of Bedford, Weideman and Melksham has really confused me when we've had blokes like Chandler, JVR, Laurie and hell, even Baker who all have been consistent and shown better form then those other guys.

I have admired the way Collingwood have gone about even though I hate it at the same time. They're top 4, and have just polished off 9 wins in a row. They've had 5 debutants who have all come in and added new life and enthusiasm into their line-up and play a exciting brand of footy that certainly stacks up with the best. We've had one player debut this year and the club that's used the least amount of players this year. Go figure.