CHANGES: Rd 15 vs Brisbane

[redandbluemakepurple 318]

Out:  MBrown (omitted), Turner, Gawn (injured), 

In:  JVR, Rivers, Tomlinson

Rivers -> HBF     Brayshaw -> wing   JVR -> Forward  Tomlinson -> Utility Tall   

BBrown to have runs in the ruck.  He often recovers the ball when spoiled in the middle of the ground

Pickett to have spells on the wing.  They won't catch him nor corral him and time to see how big his tank him.

Looking at Casey v. Collingwood

No one pressed for promotion with slick disposal even before the rain.

JVR looked more lively than Weideman.  Weideman has been given blocks of 4-ish games and has tailed off if anything.  The main role is to run up and down the ground like MacDonald so that a goal keeper cannot positioned like May to snuff out quick forward thrusts.  The second is to stand in front of BBrown so that he can nip past to mark at the highest point with his man accidentally blocked.

It is a pity that Bell hasn't been rookied.  Perhaps they are thinking of this.

[Jaded No More 58,358]

No Zorko somewhat softens the blow of no Gawn. 

[Little Goffy 12,670]

Reassuring that I'm not the only one a bit concerned about the mix of Harmes, Sparrow, Nibbler, and (Dunstan), in our midfield mix.

Not enough impact from them. They have all had some good games but none have given the consistency that is required.

Pack that together with Petracca's drop-off ever since the game he was sick for, and our overall midfield mix is a long way behind where it was for finals 2021.

I'm slowly firming in the 'Brayshaw to the middle' fan club. I think we have some pretty smart players who can do as well or almost as well as him across half-back, but he can add something extra in a midfield that lacks situational awareness.

Meanwhile, Weideman clearly just has to be made to play until he either gets it together or moves on for a fresh start. It is a testament to just how little we all 'trust' him that there is even hesitation about bringing him in when we are down our main ruck, backup ruck and our CHF, and our other tall forwards are in poor form as well.

Actual changes I'd do? Ummm....

OUT: Gawn (inj), Turner (Inj), M Brown, Harmes

IN: Weideman, Van Rooyen(!), May, Rivers

[monoccular 16,208]

22 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

The conservative, and likely, changes are May for Turner and Weideman for Gawn. 

The issue with those changes is that it means we go in with B Brown, M Brown and Weideman, who at times are all going to be in the same forward line, which inspires zero confidence.

An option is to drop M Brown, who hasn't done much if anything in the seniors to warrant retaining his spot, and replacing him with a small (e.g. Bedford, Melksham), or perhaps using Petracca more as a forward with, for example, Jordon getting more midfield time, Brayshaw going back to the wing, and Hunt coming back into the backline.

But if we drop M Brown, there will be periods of the game where Weid's rucking and Jackson's on the bench, and we'll be down to B Brown only.

This all goes to show how valuable Gawn is beyond simple ruck craft.

Dropping M Brown means we  still have Frittata who plays taller than he is .... and maybe, just maybe, debuting JVR for Mitch.  

[At the break of Gawn 3,547]

25 minutes ago, monoccular said:

Dropping M Brown means we  still have Frittata who plays taller than he is .... and maybe, just maybe, debuting JVR for Mitch.  

I got the sense that Weideman will come in based off Goody’s presser. The fact that he elaborated on him either doing ruck or as a tall forward is a good sign.

Out: Gawn, Turner

In: Weideman, May.

[Lord Travis 10,184]

In: May, Weid, Hunt, Rivers

Out: Turner, Gawn, M Brown, Bowey

 

Thoughts:

- May straight to full back.

- Weid to play second tall forward and backup ruck for Jackson. Jackson and Weid to rotate as second tall forward.

- Mitch Brown out, so one less permanent tall up forward. Go smaller up forward to create more pressure and mobility, force mids to lower the eyes and hit lead up targets.

- Bowey out. He's been poor recently and needs a spell at Casey to regain form. Rivers and Hunt in. Both to play defence and lock down on plethora of smaller Brisbane forwards. Hunt to play deeper as he's better defensively, Rivers higher to aid rebound.

- Brayshaw to play further up the ground; midfield, wing and rotating half forward with Trac. As good as he's across half back, it's the one position we have lots of depth, so we can afford to play him elsewhere to help strengthen middle and forward half for the benefit of the team overall. 

[Lucifers Hero 37,179]

2 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

No Zorko somewhat softens the blow of no Gawn. 

And no Gardiner @ 1.94cm.  Mind you they have an abundance of 2.0m + players.

[Redleg 37,810]

2 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

No Zorko somewhat softens the blow of no Gawn. 

Is he definitely out, as he trained? Did he pull up sore?

[Sydee 3,636]

2 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Is he definitely out, as he trained? Did he pull up sore?

Apparently 
Zorko to Miss Top of the Table Clash (lions.com.au)

[Sydee 3,636]

51 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

And no Gardiner @ 1.94cm.  Mind you they have an abundance of 2.0m + players.

Yes they do - we have been well beaten in the air recently and this looms as a real problem Thursday as the weather looks dry

[Lucifers Hero 37,179]

3 minutes ago, Sydee said:

Yes they do - we have been well beaten in the air recently and this looms as a real problem Thursday as the weather looks dry

A good reason to keep the ball low, switch and use players with leg speed of which we have plenty:  Hunt (if selected), Langdon, Kozzie, even Spargo.

[Lord Nev 13,511]

21 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

A good reason to keep the ball low, switch and use players with leg speed of which we have plenty:  Hunt (if selected), Langdon, Kozzie, even Spargo.

Only problem is, we never switch anymore...

 

[John Demonic 4,834]

3 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

No Zorko somewhat softens the blow of no Gawn. 

Who's going to hand us a few goals from ill-disciplined 50m penalties at a crucial moment in the 3rd now?

[DubDee 20,886]

Players and coaches had a 10 day break and 4 days away from the club.  I reckon it is just what we need and we will be refreshed.

May back in

We will be fired up and win by 2 points

[Lucifers Hero 37,179]

9 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

Only problem is, we never switch anymore...

With Max out we don't have the usual exit from d50 where he marks the kick-in (or the ball hits the ground) for the mids and Langdon to do their overlap running game and deliver to a fwd in good scoring position.

I see switching as a technique to exit d50 and let our good kicks do that in our def half.  Whether we then attack down the switched side of the ground or come back to the corridor can vary. 

I don't think Lions have much speed outside Charlie.  Even then it is 'burst' speed rather take a run type speed.  We can take advantage of that around the ground.

Considered ball movement with running dare is what we need. 

I'm quite fascinated to see how we overcome Max.

Edited June 22, 2022 by Lucifers Hero

[Lord Nev 13,511]

2 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

With Max out we don't have the usual exit from d50 where he marks the kick-in (or the ball hits the ground) for the mids and Langdon to do their overlap running game and deliver to a fwd in good scoring position.

So we need to do something a little bit different.  I see switching as a technique to exit d50 and let our good kicks do that in our def half.  Whether we then attack down the switched side of the ground or come back to the corridor. 

Considered ball movement with running dare is what we need. 

I'm quite fascinated to see how we overcome Max.

Will be interesting. This year we are 1st for kicking down the line and 18th for switching. You're 100% correct Max is a big reason for this, but do we change that for a few weeks and then go back to it? Do we change it for good? Do we leave it and just try to do it better?

It's also been noticeable how we've been avoiding Langdon's wing since his injury, would hope he's all good now after the break and it might resume more often?

Really is a fascinating week tactically for us.

[Jaded No More 58,358]

45 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Is he definitely out, as he trained? Did he pull up sore?

Yes the coach confirmed he hasn't recovered from his hamstring on time. Big out for them.

[Willmoy1947 3,801]

Big on ball part by Trac tomorrow.Oliver will be tagged by Berry and Harmes or Viney need to remove the wart. Cossie could also play a big part, and if they forget about Jackson at their peril.

[Lucifers Hero 37,179]

8 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

Will be interesting. This year we are 1st for kicking down the line and 18th for switching. You're 100% correct Max is a big reason for this, but do we change that for a few weeks and then go back to it? Do we change it for good? Do we leave it and just try to do it better?

It's also been noticeable how we've been avoiding Langdon's wing since his injury, would hope he's all good now after the break and it might resume more often?

Really is a fascinating week tactically for us.

I think we have to change even for a few weeks.  Jackson can't ruck, play fwd, fill the hole in d5o and be the exit target.  We don't have anyone tall enough or strong enough to take that exit d50 kick.

If we don't change our exit d50 from kick-it-to-Max the risk is what Sydney did:  corral our ball carrier against the boundary line where they play 'hot potato' handball until there is a turnover; Sydney score.

If we do change not only do we have the element of surprise we have a new string to our bow for the rest of the season.  Less predictable to the opps.

Not sure what other options we have.

Edited June 22, 2022 by Lucifers Hero

[WalkingCivilWar 32,410]

On 6/20/2022 at 9:05 PM, dazzledavey36 said:

Genuine pisstake if Melksham comes straight into the senior side.

Surely he got the "thanks for your service now" tap after his 200 games. VFL and that's it.

 

 

Where’s an eye roll emoji when you need one 

[Sydee 3,636]

9 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

Will be interesting. This year we are 1st for kicking down the line and 18th for switching. You're 100% correct Max is a big reason for this, but do we change that for a few weeks and then go back to it? Do we change it for good? Do we leave it and just try to do it better?

It's also been noticeable how we've been avoiding Langdon's wing since his injury, would hope he's all good now after the break and it might resume more often?

Really is a fascinating week tactically for us.

How does this compare with last year ? Seems like a very predictable and easy to defend strategy particularly with Max missing and BB not really clunking them atm

Brisbane will have a significant height advantage Thursday if we continue to bomb long and go down the line I can't see how we win the game 

[Willmoy1947 3,801]

Least Melksham will  be on the right side if May wants to only go in straight lines

[Lord Nev 13,511]

1 minute ago, Sydee said:

How does this compare with last year ? Seems like a very predictable and easy to defend strategy particularly with Max missing and BB not really clunking them atm

Brisbane will have a significant height advantage Thursday if we continue to bomb long and go down the line I can't see how we win the game 

Not sure tbh, it was in an article rather than on a stats site so don't have last year's numbers in front of me.

Anecdotally, it felt like last year we did go down the line a lot, probably to more success, but did also feel like we played on more often and switched more often.

 

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

Christ, posters talking of Hunt playing forward is bewildering.

We lack connection, we lack finesse and we're lacking in conversion.

Hunt won't help any of those things.

Melksham potentially can. That's his skill set. The problem is we haven't seen it for years now. 

[Demon Dynasty 15,638]

2 hours ago, Sydee said:

Yes they do - we have been well beaten in the air recently and this looms as a real problem Thursday as the weather looks dry

Recently Sydee?  Aside from Max, Macca and May i'd say we really don't have any other talls who can take contested marks consistently and haven't all year.  Not sure one outta three is enough against Brissy.  Would need all three in and at their best IMV.