Jump to content

  • Podcast: Grand Final Preview      

  • Podcast: Gary Pert Interview & Grand Final Preview      

CHANGES: Rd 19 vs Western Bulldogs



Recommended Posts

I wouldn't have expected us to be favourites in the betting market but:

  1. The game is at the MCG, where the Dogs are 1-1 this year, with a run of the mill win vs Collingwood and then a second-half trouncing by Richmond, and they haven't played there since Round 7
  2. The Dogs aren't really in form - they're 4-3 over their last 7 games (we're 4-2-1 by comparison) and the only one of their 4 wins in that stretch of note was vs West Coast, who aren't in any form to speak of themselves (and there was no crowd at their game in Perth) - remaining wins were vs Fremantle, North and Gold Coast
  3. Each of the last two weeks they've only generated 20 scoring shots (equal third-lowest they've had all year) and each of the last three weeks they've conceded 24 scoring shots (second-worst they've had all year)
  4. They scored 100+ points in 6 of their first 10 games but since Round 11 (losing to us) they've only reached 100 once
  5. We've already comprehensively outplayed them once this year
  • Like 12
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites


13 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

I wouldn't have expected us to be favourites in the betting market but:

  1. The game is at the MCG, where the Dogs are 1-1 this year, with a run of the mill win vs Collingwood and then a second-half trouncing by Richmond, and they haven't played there since Round 7
  2. The Dogs aren't really in form - they're 4-3 over their last 7 games (we're 4-2-1 by comparison) and the only one of their 4 wins in that stretch of note was vs West Coast, who aren't in any form to speak of themselves (and there was no crowd at their game in Perth) - remaining wins were vs Fremantle, North and Gold Coast
  3. Each of the last two weeks they've only generated 20 scoring shots (equal third-lowest they've had all year) and each of the last three weeks they've conceded 24 scoring shots (second-worst they've had all year)
  4. They scored 100+ points in 6 of their first 10 games but since Round 11 (losing to us) they've only reached 100 once
  5. We've already comprehensively outplayed them once this year

Love your efforts in sourcing those stats. Well done ? 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Dogs have dropped off significantly since their early season form, and while most would point to Dunkley/Treloar as being reasons, i personally think it's Stef Martin. he was really giving them a big edge in the middle, and allowing English to stretch backlines, but English while talented, probably isn't in the top 6-7 ruckman in the comp, so they probably don't get first use quite as much as they did with Martin, and that's where they were really killing teams, out of stoppages. 

I think we will beat them again, but it'll be a tight contest. if we are at our best i'd say we win by 3 goals and it does really put us in a strong position for top 2 with games against the Suns, Crows, Eagles and Cats to come. we should win minimum 3 of those. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think that a key to our success this year has not to make knee jerk reactions at the selection table and try and get as much continuity between the playing group. 
 

We were bad against the Hawks, but fantastic against Port the week prior. The same players. It’s not selection that will make the difference, it’s effective application of our proven game plan. 
 

If we bring our high pressure game, the Dogs will struggle, as they don’t like it and start to bomb long (straight into our hands). I trust Burgess and Goodwin have a plan to get us into the finals and succeed in the finals. Week 19 doesn’t matter unless it’s part of the plan. 
 

On Viney. He is a work in progress - he also had 32 touches and 11 tackles. If he can get his efficiency and decision making right, he will be a major asset. 
 

Harmes in, Vandenberg out. Go again. 

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Dwight Schrute said:

The Dogs have dropped off significantly since their early season form, and while most would point to Dunkley/Treloar as being reasons, i personally think it's Stef Martin. he was really giving them a big edge in the middle, and allowing English to stretch backlines, but English while talented, probably isn't in the top 6-7 ruckman in the comp, so they probably don't get first use quite as much as they did with Martin, and that's where they were really killing teams, out of stoppages. 

I think we will beat them again, but it'll be a tight contest. if we are at our best i'd say we win by 3 goals and it does really put us in a strong position for top 2 with games against the Suns, Crows, Eagles and Cats to come. we should win minimum 3 of those. 

I agree re: Martin.

In our game last year English rucked the first half and we led at half time. Beveridge was so angry at the ruck situation he swapped English and Bruce. Bruce ended up doing better than English in the ruck (was a low bar to cross) and English kicked 2-3 goals and helped win them the game.

They're a better side with Martin first ruck and Naughton, Bruce and English in their forward line.

They're close to getting Libba, Wood and Vandermeer back from injury. I'm not 100% sure if Wood and Vandermeer are best 22 but I would have thought so. But Martin's not ready this week. Presumably they'll stick with a Naughton, Bruce and Ugle-Hagan forward line.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

I agree re: Martin.

In our game last year English rucked the first half and we led at half time. Beveridge was so angry at the ruck situation he swapped English and Bruce. Bruce ended up doing better than English in the ruck (was a low bar to cross) and English kicked 2-3 goals and helped win them the game.

They're a better side with Martin first ruck and Naughton, Bruce and English in their forward line.

They're close to getting Libba, Wood and Vandermeer back from injury. I'm not 100% sure if Wood and Vandermeer are best 22 but I would have thought so. But Martin's not ready this week. Presumably they'll stick with a Naughton, Bruce and Ugle-Hagan forward line.

Seems they have some concerns about if Martin will be back at all this year, and personally i think they'll find it really hard to win the flag without him and Treloar, but not impossible. 

I'll be really interested to see if we try to tag Libba again or if we change things up against them. it's going to be a really simple equation for us though, if we bring our pressure and we're on defensively, we should be able to shut down their ball movement. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Dwight Schrute said:

Seems they have some concerns about if Martin will be back at all this year, and personally i think they'll find it really hard to win the flag without him and Treloar, but not impossible. 

I'll be really interested to see if we try to tag Libba again or if we change things up against them. it's going to be a really simple equation for us though, if we bring our pressure and we're on defensively, we should be able to shut down their ball movement. 

Last time they belted us in clearances 36-27 (including 25-14 at stoppages), had 54 more disposals, 6 more inside 50s and, despite having more of the ball, they had 11 more tackles (57-46).

But we still won.

The confidence I take from that is that they got on top in areas they usually get on top in, but couldn't work out how to turn that into an effective method of scoring. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, adonski said:

Libba is a test to play for this week apparently (no, not a covid test). You'd assume they'll rush him back with Dunkley out tho.

He was rested.

He'll play.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Last time they belted us in clearances 36-27 (including 25-14 at stoppages), had 54 more disposals, 6 more inside 50s and, despite having more of the ball, they had 11 more tackles (57-46).

But we still won.

The confidence I take from that is that they got on top in areas they usually get on top in, but couldn't work out how to turn that into an effective method of scoring. 

Definitely, they love when multiple players get drawn into the contest and they can have numbers on the outside with time and space, but we held our players out and didn't give them that, and it seemed to totally throw them. 

it's why i'm not sure if their game plan will stack up in finals, because they don't look like the same team under any sort of pressure, the Swans tore them a new one.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Last time they belted us in clearances 36-27 (including 25-14 at stoppages), had 54 more disposals, 6 more inside 50s and, despite having more of the ball, they had 11 more tackles (57-46).

But we still won.

The confidence I take from that is that they got on top in areas they usually get on top in, but couldn't work out how to turn that into an effective method of scoring. 

Interestingly they also had a higher, albeit only slightly, pressure rating than us in that game. Something like 170 to 167.

I was surprises after the game when i saw that stat on fox as watching it live it felt like we we were applying far more pressure. Perhaps we just handled it better.  

to win this game it is important we:

  • stop their fast transtion game from half back
  • make sure their forwards have no clear lanes to lead into (which they wont if we make it hard for them to move the ball quickly) 
  • minimise their scoring chances from center clearances  

Other teams have been doing these things pretty well in the last 6 weeks and they have struggled.

The key though of course is applying max pressure. I reckon their game plan is suspect under intense pressure becuase it relies so much on lots of quick handballs and precise kicks.

In the games against sides that have really applied crazy pressure and intensity - the tigers, the dees and the Swans  they have struggled to kick a competitive score and duly lost. In those games they could only score 55, 59 and 60 points respectively. 

 

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd only have the 1 change this week and that would be Harmes for Vanders but if we lose this week we are in a serious form slump and Sparrow, Bowey, Melksham and others have to be considered.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, bingers said:

Incredibly Sportsbet has Melbourne $1.83 Bulldogs $2.01.

Go figure?

Maybe Sportsbet already know who the umpires will be for the match - 'umpire assists' will therefore have less impact on the game? 

  • Haha 2
  • Vomit 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, WA Demon Boy said:

Lol how are we favourites for this game? 

1) bulldogs aren't in great form either 

2) bulldogs don't play the MCG often only playing there twice this year with a 1-1 record

3) we have a great record against top 8 sides and pantsed them 7 weeks ago on their home deck.

4) we are a very good team currently sitting on top of the ladder after 18 rounds and been there most of the year. 

5) likely wet weather which will nullify their strengths more than ours.

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Superunknown said:

Bulldogs paying $2 on ladbrokes

that seems rather generous 

I will take that very very generous

Need to redeem the 100 I dropped on the Hawks 

Close but no cigar

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Doggies are not a stand out team. The Suns brought the heat on the weekend and with a bit more class would have beaten them.

As long as we bring our pressure and intensity we'll win. We're not in great form at the moment but we've brought the heat for all our big games this year so no reason to believe we won't this weekend. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know it’s way too early to think about dropping Brown, but he’s on notice for mine. Yes, doing some good things, but if he doesn’t start clunking a few and kicking true I will start to question his spot in the team again

  • Like 1
  • Facepalm 3
  • Thinking 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, GCDee said:

1) bulldogs aren't in great form either 

2) bulldogs don't play the MCG often only playing there twice this year with a 1-1 record

3) we have a great record against top 8 sides and pantsed them 7 weeks ago on their home deck.

4) we are a very good team currently sitting on top of the ladder after 18 rounds and been there most of the year. 

5) likely wet weather which will nullify their strengths more than ours.

 

 

Not sure about our wet weather abilities. I thought our fumbling of the ball last week in the wet was terrible. If hibbard gathered the ball at any stage in under three bites I'd be surprised. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, BDA said:

The Doggies are not a stand out team. The Suns brought the heat on the weekend and with a bit more class would have beaten them.

As long as we bring our pressure and intensity we'll win. We're not in great form at the moment but we've brought the heat for all our big games this year so no reason to believe we won't this weekend. 

We've become untrustworthy. Who knows who'll turn up this week. Ollywood football or team first. It really is frustrating.

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Harmes in for Vanders; Weed in for Jackson (needs a rest and recharge for finals)

Over the next couple of weeks, would be good to find a way to rest Rivers, Jordon, and ANB and bring in combination Jones, Sparrow, Melksham, Vanders to cover to be prepared for September

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, BDA said:

Take a look at the ladder CYB. We're top.

Far out it doesn't take long for the defeatism to settle in around here. We've beaten all our Top 8 rivals this year remember including the Dogs. They were befuddled the last time we played them.

Saturday night was a shocker but we can bounce back. The coaching team will get a hold of the players this week and remind them how we got to the top in the first place. Roles and system.

We'll roll the dogs I reckon. 

BDA i wish i could have your optimism but our footy - or consistency to be more accurate - doesn't inspire much confidence in our ability to win. We are still a week-to-week proposition and don't know which Melbourne team will turn up. 

Im less concerned with things being attitudinal but if a team placed 17th can dismantle our gameplan then I think a mature, hard working and highly skillful team like the doggies will go to school and give us a good old reality check. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, WA Demon Boy said:

Lol how are we favourites for this game? 

Because we smashed the Bulldogs last time, are on top of the ladder and haven't lost to a top 8, let alone top 4 side. That could be the reason...

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, binman said:

Interestingly they also had a higher, albeit only slightly, pressure rating than us in that game. Something like 170 to 167.

I was surprises after the game when i saw that stat on fox as watching it live it felt like we we were applying far more pressure. Perhaps we just handled it better.  

to win this game it is important we:

  • stop their fast transtion game from half back
  • make sure their forwards have no clear lanes to lead into (which they wont if we make it hard for them to move the ball quickly) 
  • minimise their scoring chances from center clearances  

Other teams have been doing these things pretty well in the last 6 weeks and they have struggled.

The key though of course is applying max pressure. I reckon their game plan is suspect under intense pressure becuase it relies so much on lots of quick handballs and precise kicks.

In the games against sides that have really applied crazy pressure and intensity - the tigers, the dees and the Swans  they have struggled to kick a competitive score and duly lost. In those games they could only score 55, 59 and 60 points respectively. 

 

I think any team under pressure of 180+ will struggle as we clearly did against the Hawks. In the end it will be boil down to desire and who is hungrier. I'm not buying into the attitude aspects just yet - yes there were some indications against the Hawks that some players were trying to do too much - i think that is a great mind set, it just needs to be fine tuned to ensure that energy and desire is better placed. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Match Previews, Reports & Articles  

    CAT SKINNING by George On The Outer

    When they defeated the Geelong Cats in the 2021 AFL Preliminary Final on Friday night in Perth, Melbourne proved that there is more than one way to skin those cats.  They did it in the ruck and in the middle, they did it in the forward line, they did it in defence and around the ground, but importantly, each and every player a Demon guernsey spent his night at Optus Stadium skinning an opponent. Following the after-the-siren win against Geelong in Round 23, there was an expectation of

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    THE POINTY END by The Oracle

    The AFL’s two oldest clubs, Melbourne and Geelong, face off on Friday evening in a sudden death Preliminary Final. It’s a game that promises plenty in terms of fascination and intrigue as a result of the rivalry that’s been building between the teams over recent encounters that have been tight struggles which have gone to the wire with two of them decided by after-the-siren goals. The added touch of mystery attached to this week’s meeting comes by virtue of the fact that it’s going to take

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    THE VFL YEAR THAT NEVER WAS by KC from Casey

    The rising case numbers and the continuing lockdowns in Victoria and NSW spelled doom for the 2021 VFL season which went through a slow, painful demise before its recent official cancellation. After weeks of indecision, the AFL decided to pull the plug on the season with the 10-0 Bulldogs recognised as minor premier, but without a premiership cup and without awarding the J.J. Liston Medal for the best and fairest VFL player. It was somewhat fortuitous for the integrity of the competition t

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Casey Articles

    TAMING THE LIONS by George On The Outer

    With nine finals debutants in the side, the Melbourne Football Club had a daunting assignment ahead of it in the First Qualifying Final — to overcome the competition’s highest scoring side, the Brisbane Lions. In the end, the Demons accomplished the task by putting the bite on their opponents on their way to taming the Lions and recording a 33 point win that propelled them into one the two Preliminary Finals of 2021.   It was one of those debutants, Luke Jackson, who put the bite in more

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    RETURN TO NEVERLAND by Whispering Jack

    The greatest Demon A HIGHWAY OF DEMONS by Whispering Jack CHAPTER SIXTEEN - RETURN TO NEVERLAND  I have a six year old grandson who recently took up the family tradition of following the Demons. He had his first taste of the game a few years ago when he went to the “G” with his parents to watch the 107-point massacre of Carlton and he went to another game in the following season which was also a W for the Dees. But his appetite for the club has grown exponentially this year and wh

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Special Features 13

    METAMORPHOSIS by Whispering Jack

    I’ve always believed that when the home and away matches come to an end, the football season takes on a completely different shape and character. During the regular season, each team’s goals progress as the weeks pass and if you’re good enough to survive and make the grade, the situation changes. The comparison can be made with the life cycle of a butterfly going through stages from egg to larva to caterpillar, cocoon and in the end to a bright and colourful creature that emerges from darkness i

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    STEALING THE CATS’ CREAM by George On The Outer

    They were leading by 44 points well into the third quarter of a game to decide the minor premier, having kicked nine unanswered goals. The Cats were about to lap up their bowl of cream, dreaming of next week but the Demons led by Max Gawn had other ideas. In a stunning finish, they stole the game from under them to claim the plaudits as best team and top of ladder position. In a remarkable game, it all came down to Max having to kick the winning goal after the final siren, something which s

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    SKIN THE CATS by Whispering Jack

    The task ahead for the Demons as they wend their way down the Princes Freeway to Geelong on Saturday night will be to skin the Cats. For them to come away with the points from this game would mark an historic occasion for the club as it will finish on top of the ladder for the first time since its last premiership year, 1964. And it was in that year, that a trip to Corio Bay to meet the reigning premiers in Round 12, was one of the catalysts for Melbourne’s surge to the flag. It was a top o

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    REACH FOR THE STARS by George on the Outer

    It was a game of great significance for the Melbourne Football Club. A win would see them keep top spot on the ladder with one round remaining. To achieve top place in the Round for Reach when we are all inspired to “Be Like Jim” and reach for the stars was a great way of honouring one of our heroes. All the better given that it was done by way of an emphatic 41 point win against Adelaide! It is worth remembering that, but for the umpiring mistake in the previous encounter with the Crows, t

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    TICKETS PLEASE by The Oracle

    A lot of water has passed under Princes Bridge in the five years since Melbourne last met Adelaide on the MCG. The Crows were riding high at the time while the Demons were mid-table and scrambling for a win to stay in the race for the finals. The 30,000 fans who had tickets to the game were thoroughly entertained by a close, high scoring affair that ended in tears for fans of the home team. Not even an eight-goal second term could help them.   Times have changed.    In the fi

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    ELECTRIFYING by George On The Outer

    What more can they throw at the Demons of 2021? Covid restrictions, hubs, aircraft circling between airports before landing for games and now a match stopped for 30 minutes to give a flagging opponent its second wind? To date, none of those distractions has swayed the team from their winning objectives. The game against West Coast in Perth can be marked on their report card as another positive outcome after yet another test. There was much at stake for both sides.  Melbourne had t

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    LONG AGO AND FAR AWAY by Whispering Jack

    When the combatants that are due to face off on Monday night at Optus Stadium last met, it was 11 days after the World Health Organization had declared the Covid19 outbreak a global pandemic. In Australia, the first cases had just come to light, including visiting US actors Tom Hanks and wife Rita Wilson, the toilet paper panic was in full flight and the world was starting to reel in anticipation of impending disaster. Half an hour before this last game of the opening round was due to comme

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

  • Tell a friend

    Love Demonland? Tell a friend!

×
×
  • Create New...