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Wylie D

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Everything posted by Wylie D

  1. My wondering relates to the striking difference between the Carlton pre-season game and the Sydney match, and how much the weather played in the results. The coaches have stated that they are looking for only a goal more on average per game - and the tweaks to the game plan appear to be faster movement out of defense, and bringing in a bit more speed (windsor) and footskills (salem) through the midfield, with the goal of better inside 50 scoring efficiency. The Carlton game would have left the coaches very happy - there were over 20 marks inside 50. But it was a dry night without much pressure and some room to move in the 50. Thursday was the opposite scenario. I agree that Goodwin was outcoached on Thursday, but Goody is known for sticking to his gameplan regardless of the conditions, with the goal of applying the strategy as much as possible for the players to become familiar with it. It often looks like stupid coaching when we are losing. Last year we had a woeful record in the wet, and that has carried on this year too. Our bread and butter used to suit wet weather - a pure territory game, high contest, defensive, low scoring. However the coaches understand the game has changed and we are evolving. It takes a long time for clubs to fully adapt to new gameplans and master them. This is a roundabout way of saying that the weather was for me the biggest factor in our poor performance. Gawn noted it was one of most draining games he had played. Not only was it slippery, but it was humid. That started our problems, and the stubborness of the coach, and the absence of half our best forwards only seemed to exacerbate the issue. However - we were level with them at three quarter time. Despite everyone agreeing we were woeful. My question is - do we simply write this one off as a a weather related aberration, or is there something deeply flawed in our gameplan (coaches) or the execution of it (players). I'm going with weather as the primary issue, but also think the adjustments to the gameplan will take time, and until we get Petty and Kosi back, we won't be executing to the best of our ability. Feel free to ignore this lengthy point/question/rant. Go Dees
  2. Max is one of the best captains in the game - a genuine leader on and off the field. For a footballer, he is off the charts for social skills and emotional intelligence - which is increasingly important as a mentor for young players - helping them simultaneously figure out 'who they are' while working in a job that attracts a potent mix of relentless public scrutiny, idol worship, quick money and media vultures (hi Kane). Jack on the other hand is the quiet guy off the field who becomes a giant on the field, lifting everyone around him with acts of insane bravery and a monomaniacal desire to crush the opposition. This is one of the best mixes of leadership Melbourne have ever had and it is the right decision - for 2024. My sense for the future is that Petracca needs to reach his personal footballing ambitions before becoming captain - more flags, a brownlow, a B&F. He has set himself to be a legend of the game. Being a captain takes time and effort - I'm not sure he is yet in a place to let go of the all conquering desire to be the best player and team mate. Depending on what happens this year, he might be ready to to focus fully on the rewards of captaincy. He will be fantastic when he is ready. If you wanted a more conservative path, Lever is a ready made captain. If you wanted to be more strategic and long term? Rivers to me is starting to look like a man who can inspire those around him. My wife is getting suspicious about how long I've been 'checking my emails' - back to making hot cocoa :) Cheers
  3. I actually agree that it would go against the logic of selection under Goodwin, and that right now Hunter and Langdon are proven performers. However, and while I'm a big fan, Langdon was completely dominated by Sidebottom in the Qualifying Final - so much so Hunter had to be moved onto his wing. I thought Hunter actually had a good finals series - but was interested to see how low he finished in the B&F. I just wonder if the club feels that some experimentation is warranted - especially if Langdon and Hunter aren't at their very best. Either way - having genuine competition for those spots can only be a good thing. Cheers
  4. While our centre square mids are a lock (clarry being available) - i feel like coming into this season, neither Langdon or Hunter are automatic selections on the wings. Based on what people reported, it sounds like Windsor and Billings are the primary competitors for these spots, with Windsor showing good signs but inexperience (to be expected) - and Billings impressing, particularly with his disposal. Is there anyone else observers have seen on the wing that could also be included in the selection mix (i thought Howes was selected as a wing but seems to be trialling at half back). Given Hunter has been sidelined with a calf, will have given Billings more opportunities. Interested to hear what people think on who we play on the wing - but it could be the case by the end of the season, if Windsor and Billings stay fit, they might have bumped Langdon or Hunter down to the twos. Cheers
  5. It’s a shame for Ben and the club, but I never had him in the seniors this season. Petty and JVR are our key forwards, the mystery is more so around the third tall / ruck chop out. Fullerton was drafted for this role, and Schache is there for competition. Even in the twos we are stacked with tall forwards. I have Jefferson, Tmac and Schache in that team. My sense is that Brown is a great clubman and is getting involved in coaching roles. I also think he wants to get his full contract as might be the last year he ever earns such a big salary. His spot on the list this year is going towards the value he can add off the field - with a bonus element of being a very good option if we get into injury trouble.
  6. Binman, I'm glad you've raised this as one of the things I would love to see in 2024 is Bowser trialled in the midfield. While I partially agree with others that he doesn't have the size, he's not far off, and it hasn't been an issue in the past - he has always been undersized, and yet starred as a junior as a mid. In the words of Jason Taylor, was drafted as a possible midfielder in the mould of Sam Mitchell. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-16/afl-melbourne-demons-jake-bowey-journey-to-grand-final/100463912 One of the main reasons I want Bowey in the midfield is that he has the type of creative foot skills that we lack, particularly going into the forward 50. There are very few players that have both the IQ to create opportunities + the skills to deliver. Nick Daicos is the one of the best examples of these players - they create for the team mates, as opposed to reacting to their team mates. Travis Johnstone was brilliant at this this, and it is exactly what we need when going inside 50. Bowsers kick to Brayshaw in the third Q of the GF was an example of what i'm talking about. He saw a spot on the ground inside 50 that only Brayshaw could reach, and led Gus to the ball. He did so under immense pressure - and it led to a critical goal. Kozzie is the other player that has similar IQ + Skills that creates with the ball by foot. You couldn't play both in the middle at the same time, but I think adding Bowser to the mix would give us exactly what we need in an era of defensive zones and flooded backlines. Cheers
  7. The only scenario I would consider trading Petty this year would be if his injuries are a major concern and there is no certainty he will get back on the park and playing his best in 2024. The club is possibly bluffing when they say is will be playing with us next year to up the anti, but I doubt that. Otherwise, he is a critical piece of the premiership puzzle - a tall forward who is physically fully developed, can clunk marks, split packs, run all game and kick accurately for goal. We have fantastic draft picks already - I don't care what draft picks are offered - we need exactly what he offers right now - not young talent that will come good in 2-3 years. I'll be upset if he does leave, even in 2024, as he is part of our core group that will play at their peak for the next 5 years. His ability to play at both ends of the ground make him all the more important as May and Lever get towards the end of their careers. I really hope that he holds to his word and gives it another crack with us next year. Another test for the club. Go Dees!
  8. I think if the club is talking about the importance of a good culture ad nauseam, on that criteria alone Mathieson would be ruled out. We have Viney to make opposition lives miserable.
  9. Of what seemed like a limited selection of experienced coaches, he seemed like the best available - and it is an endorsement of the club that he wanted to come to us. He is coming from a highly successful culture, but also fits the mould of more humble leaders that are increasingly coming into the game, which Goody represents. I think he will also be excited to come to a fresh environment. Good start to the post-season.
  10. Well, i wasn't suggesting the room is full of juveniles. I respect the vast majority of those who post here, but struggle sometimes with the general sense of melancholy. Having had a few beers (which is rare these days), I felt more inclined to respond to the group and propose a more positive perspective. Upon sobering up a bit, given Collingwood just won the GF, probably unrealistic expectations. 🙂
  11. This thread reminds me of the Game Day thread - a pervading negativity that makes it hard to read. I just watched a fantastic game of footy with a big group of friends - desperately hoping the Pies would lose. Alas - they were genuinely too good. Life is too short to harbour bitterness - we should be enjoying the fact that we have a team genuinely capable of winning a flag over the next 2-3 years. I've spent my life focussing on the positives while our team have been awful. I want to keeo doing that while we are good. I back Goodwin in, our fitness staff, our recruiters and our development coaches, and of course our players. We are three years running top 4, and have a Cup on the shelf. Go Dees
  12. Binman, I'm glad you are so confident - I think it's rubbing off a little. I've taken another look at the results from last season, and you are absolutely right, they are incredibly similar to this year. In 2021 we went 9-0, and then lost 4, drew 1, won 4, including of course, a loss to the Bulldogs in the corresponding round 19 game. The only difference I see at the moment is that the run home this season is far more challenging. Rounds 20-23 comparisons below 2021 vs 2022 - Suns (Docklands) / Dockers (Perth) - Eagles (Perth) / Magpies (MCG) - Crows (MCG) / Blues (MCG) - Cats (Kardinia Park) / Lions (Gabba) I think this is where the mystery sits with me - even if we come out of our loading phase, I'm not sure how we will perform in a series of tough games, coming off the back of 5-6 tough games. Based on your comments, I'm feeling more positive that we will starting performing better and running out games as we saw us do last year. In regards to other comments by 'Landers around game plan, no plan B, low in50 tackle count, etc, all of those issues for me are addressed by our fitness. We thrive on a game of sustained pressure - which doesn't cut it against the best teams if you're 5% off. I'm fascinated to see how the next 4 weeks go, and haven't lost hope. Cheers,
  13. It wasn't a surprise to me that the Doggies won - they turned a corner last week and my gut feeling, once both Brown and Lever were ruled out, was that we might get done (and potentially badly). However, the huge surprise was the scoreline - it looked like we decided to go full throttle, but unlike last year, we were unable to able stem the scoring of the opposition, and signals to me that our fitness continues to be our number one concern heading towards the finals. It needs to be pointed out our draw since round 10 has been insanely difficult, and doesn't stop with 2 x top four sides (away) and 2 x top 8 sides (both who we have lost to this season/pre-season). There is no respite, which makes it possible that we will lose all of the next 4 games (don't think we will, but we won't win them all - that's for sure). Above all, the most concerning factor this season has been our fitness in the second half of the games, as compared to 2021. We have been in the game, or ahead, at half time of all the games we have lost, but have looked noticeably fatigued and unable to stem the flow of scoring by the opposition in all of those games. Personally, I feel like we are hoping to get a top four spot, take the week off, and then launch. If we don't make the top 4, our fitness suggests 4 x wins in a row will be too much to ask. The season remains a mystery in terms of predicting what Melbourne will do.
  14. I recall D Martin at the zenith of his 'bad boy' era trying to find a new home and receiving zero interest. None of us wanted him. He went on to become a three time Norm Smith medallist. I'm not saying that De Goey is as good as Martin - or that I want De Goey at the club - but he has some rare talents and any club that can get him to settle down and focus on footy could be getting a matchwinner. This seems more a question of whether or not we could get Jordie to reform himself, buy into our club values and become a better human being, rather than whether we like who he is, what he has done or his current values.
  15. I doubt the Dogs will go with that many talls, but that seems irrelevant to me. What will matter is how we go in the midfield battle. In the second half last week the Hawks continually won the ball around the contest and moved it quickly before we could properly setup. It will come down to pressure and ability to win or halve 50/50 contests. Pressure forces them to bomb / rush forward entrances, playing into our defensive zone. 50/50 wins will be key for both teams as they present a rare opportunity to attack with a degree of unpredictability. If our pressure is on early I think we can win. If we give them a sniff they will be desperate to square the ledger before going into finals. This game is more important for them than us. Go Dees!
  16. Carlton are the team that most remind me of Melbourne in terms of playing badly but having a decent list. Williams can definitely play through the midfield, but he’s clearly not fully fit. I was keen on him when trade came up - as he is quick and a beautiful kick. If they get a good coach who can get them playing to full potential, they can jump up the ladder quickly. In the meantime I’ll continue to enjoy watching them underachieve.
  17. I think that a key to our success this year has not to make knee jerk reactions at the selection table and try and get as much continuity between the playing group. We were bad against the Hawks, but fantastic against Port the week prior. The same players. It’s not selection that will make the difference, it’s effective application of our proven game plan. If we bring our high pressure game, the Dogs will struggle, as they don’t like it and start to bomb long (straight into our hands). I trust Burgess and Goodwin have a plan to get us into the finals and succeed in the finals. Week 19 doesn’t matter unless it’s part of the plan. On Viney. He is a work in progress - he also had 32 touches and 11 tackles. If he can get his efficiency and decision making right, he will be a major asset. Harmes in, Vandenberg out. Go again.
  18. It's been interesting to me that a large % on this forum feel that the result against Hawthorn reinforces the belief that Melbourne are not going to succeed in the finals - primarily around the assertion that we lack the mental edge or 'killer instinct' required. The evidence being that we have: - faltered against weaker opposition (i.e. those who should be an easy 'kill') - struggled when the expectation is to win (i.e. we only succeed as an underdog) While this makes sense to some degree, for me the win against Port Adelaide was in the game that truly made me believe we can be successful in the finals. That was last week - following weeks of sub-standard play including losses to Collingwood and GWS. The Port game for me is where the pendulum settles, as it reinforces my belief that Melbourne have invested their strategic, physical and mental energies into the games that matter. Imagine our losses were against the Cats, Dogs, Lions and Power, and our wins included huge percentage boosting wins against the Crows, Pies, Giants and Hawks? This scenario is more likely to make me believe we wouldn't succeed come September. Why can't put away teams that have struggled against the rest of the competition this year? 1 - I read earlier the theory that when we play against the top teams, they have tried to win applying their own strategy, rather than trying to unpick ours. In contrast, the lower teams have tried to win unpicking our strategy. This sort of makes sense - but I'm not convinced. I do think however buy into the idea that teams prepare to play us as if it is a big game (the way we prepare for our big games). Hawthorn played their best game for the year last night - they were responding to a flogging by Freo. Noting they have the best coach in the comp, and Sam Mitchell was the mastermind behind our humiliation against the Eagles in the Prelim. The pies were playing in Buckley's last game. GWS stated it was a 'final' for them. Adelaide had some major scalps and Tex was still in form. 2 - We cannot play our high pressure gamestyle for 22 rounds, it's too exhausting. As such, we have invested our biggest efforts for the high stakes games. I think this has some merit - no team can play at 100% all year - and as such, we seem to have 'turned on' the pressure for periods of games (particularly in the second half), as we cannot sustain the energy required to play four quarters of high pressure every week. Against the best teams, we have managed to sustain high pressure for longer periods of the game. I actually like this theory because we have arguably the best fitness and conditioning coach in the league. Everything the Burgess does is for a reason. We looked tired last night - yet came off a 9 day break - I think there is a reason for this. 3 - the coach is crap. I don't buy this argument as he's the guy who has led us to record wins and wins against the best in the comp. I think the players respect him and play for him, and the gameplan (when working) is built to win finals. 4 - mental weakness of players/lack of leadership: I think until we win a flag, we will have this accusation hanging over us, and for good reason. It reminds me of the Chicago Bulls in The Last Dance. They had to prove they could win in the finals to get the belief and trust of their supporters and critics. I don't believe however that you can win against every team in the top 8 and not have serious mental strength. The way we go about our wins has also been instructive - we have never gone over the top celebrating - we look like we mean business and each win is a step towards the GF - the only game that matters 5 - Risk aversion: I've argued this previously as a key reason for not winning against lower clubs (or struggling even if we win). Think back to the incredible chains of handballs that we were bold enough to try against the Tigers, or other really amazing pieces of play through the middle or flooding forward against the Lions and Cats. In a way this is a symptom of mental weakness, but it is also evidence of loss aversion (are they the same). Loss aversion takes hold as the consequences of losing (e.g. humiliation) are greater against teams we are expected to beat. In this scenario, we take less risks because we expect (hope) our opposition to make more mistakes. What happens though is if the opposition don't make mistakes, they grow in confidence, and in turn, we go into our shells and loss aversion kicks in. Thankfully our defence has held strong in many of these games (as it did again last night - thanks HP). Once momentum turns, it can be impossible to stop. In that regard, I was super happy to escape with a draw. For me it had nothing to do with the number of games the Hawks had played - it had everything to do with belief and confidence. Once they got some momentum, we were in trouble. 6 - the mystery and miracle of competitive sports: There is no rational reason, and why we have lost or nearly lost so many games to teams below us perhaps we just can't be explained. Of the above, I'm taking the following view: We win when it most matters, which makes me believe we can win the GF this year. We can't sustain 100% high pressure all year, and this puts us at risk when it drops off. We also come from a culture of failure, and mental demons will continue to creep in until we get to the top. Despite that history of failure, we have a coaching and fitness team that rivals the best in the comp, and who, in tandem with the playing leadership, have as at the top of the ladder as of Round 18. I've completely given up caring about how much we win games by, or whether we struggle against 'weak' opposition. I just want the win and move on, and my belief in the team will be determined by the games we play against the top teams, not those at the bottom. Go Dees!
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