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Posted (edited)

Player / Team Stats Form Guide

Rnds 10 to 12, 2019  vs  Season 2018

image.png.3186ceea2ad044284e370984228ea6c9.png

 

Worth noting...

T-Mac's dropped even further since the last 3 round block i looked at from Rnds 7 to 9 vs his 2018 average.  In rounds 7 to 9 he was 44% down vs 55% in the last three matches (on average).  That's another 11% drop!  Hunt has dropped off substantially vs Rnds 7 to 9 where he was 56.5% up on 2018.  Only 3% up in the last three rounds is a pretty huge fall.

Jeffy off even further vs 2018 also.  From Rnds 7 to 9 he was -21% off vs this block -29% off.

Spargo is up on his earlier block from round 4 to 6 (-63.6%) but still well down on 2018.

Hannan only just having returned after a long lay off is off -29% on 2018.  Obviously further time needed to regain full fitness and tank.

Smith (up 12.5% vs Rnds 7 to 9), Weids tracking similar to 2018.

In the mid field Clarry is well and truly on track vs 2018 and not a concern.

Maxy & Harmes off the charts vs 2018.

However, we fall away from there with Viney, Gus & Jones still way off their 2018 average.

Tracc was off 29% in Rnds 7 to 9 and has turned things around nicely in the last 3 rounds to be only off by about 8%,  albeit most of that was the last game against the Pies.  His best for the year.

Jwags, who started off the season very well tracking at or above his 2018 average till Rnd 9, has now fallen away a little in the last 3 Rnds.

FristchKreig has had a massive form reversal since Rnds 7 to 9 where he was 44% off his 2018 average to now be up by 12.7%!  Has Goody changed his role maybe with more time through the mid field (wings)?

Edited by Rusty Nails
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Here are some horrific stats.

Last year we averaged 104 points per game,  kicking 25 more goals than 2nd ranked Richmond after the H&A season. 

Currently we average 69 per game. 

What a monumental fail. It is hard to swallow.

 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Hell Bent said:

Here are some horrific stats.

Last year we averaged 104 points per game,  kicking 25 more goals than 2nd ranked Richmond after the H&A season. 

Currently we average 69 per game. 

What a monumental fail. It is hard to swallow.

 

It comes down to forwards who aren't able to finish or capitalise on the monumental inside 50 count over so many games HB.

Check the table above which is a composite of averages from the last three rounds and you will not see one forward in the top 10 for output (the composite scores also account for average goals kicked).

Our mids have dominated other teams on occasions in clearances and inside 50s, even some very good ones like the Pies and the Cats.  Some poor delivery and methods (bombing to hot zone far too often etc).  But the forwards have either fluffed many of the entries or, when given the opportunity, missed very gettable stock standard set shots on multiple occasions.

This is partly to do with 'some' very poor delivery but IMHO a major part of the poor conversion comes down to bog ordinary forward line up who, with a few exceptions, just aren't very good at their craft.

Also most forwards outside of Jeffy, Smith & ANB (when playing) just aren't putting enough heat on players around them when we lose possession either.  We aren't locking the ball in often enough nor causing enough turnovers in the most dangerous part of the ground (for the opp).  They are mostly waltzing the ball out.  Part of that caused by a very slack forward half zoning method.

If we believe this same forward line up is taking us to the promised land (finals or even top 4) in 2020 then we are in for an almighty rude shock.

Personally the signing of Weids was premature but the lessor of two evils (T-Mac).  He does show potential but may well be another long haul option like Watts.  I would happily trade both him & T-Mac along with future picks etc for a genuine KPF (Cameron) if the trade was up for grabs.

Jeffy and Spargo are a delist for mine.

Time to trial Lockhart & Dunkley in the 2nd half.

Hannan & Hunt one more time around on a one year extension.

Tracc goes into the middle and IF chunk plays on he moves into Tracc's role.

Missing Melk in a big way atm obviously along with a genuine speedy small crumbing forward who can hit the scoreboard under heat.

Two or all three of Viney, Clarry and chunk should not be in the starting 4 in the middle either.  They are coal faced and unable to get the ball to the outside cleanly enough often enough to justify playing two or three at the same time.

At least two of Tracc, Gus & Harmes need to be in with one of those three (assuming Chunk plays on) to improve our outside capability in 2020 and a genuine speedy outside winger who can finish is needed also.

Edited by Rusty Nails
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1 hour ago, Rusty Nails said:

It comes down to forwards who aren't able to finish or capitalise on the monumental inside 50 count over so many games HB.

Check the table above which is a composite of averages from the last three rounds and you will not see one forward in the top 10 for output (the composite scores also account for average goals kicked).

Our mids have dominated other teams on occasions in clearances and inside 50s, even some very good ones like the Pies and the Cats.  Some poor delivery and methods (bombing to hot zone far too often etc).  But the forwards have either fluffed many of the entries or, when given the opportunity, missed very gettable stock standard set shots on multiple occasions.

This is partly to do with 'some' very poor delivery but IMHO a major part of the poor conversion comes down to bog ordinary forward line up who, with a few exceptions, just aren't very good at their craft.

Also most forwards outside of Jeffy, Smith & ANB (when playing) just aren't putting enough heat on players around them when we lose possession either.  We aren't locking the ball in often enough nor causing enough turnovers in the most dangerous part of the ground (for the opp).  They are mostly waltzing the ball out.  Part of that caused by a very slack forward half zoning method.

If we believe this same forward line up is taking us to the promised land (finals or even top 4) in 2020 then we are in for an almighty rude shock.

Personally the signing of Weids was premature but the lessor of two evils (T-Mac).  He does show potential but may well be another long haul option like Watts.  I would happily trade both him & T-Mac along with future picks etc for a genuine KPF (Cameron) if the trade was up for grabs.

Jeffy and Spargo are a delist for mine.

Time to trial Lockhart & Dunkley in the 2nd half.

Hannan & Hunt one more time around on a one year extension.

Tracc goes into the middle and IF chunk plays on he moves into Tracc's role.

Missing Melk in a big way atm obviously along with a genuine speedy small crumbing forward who can hit the scoreboard under heat.

Two or all three of Viney, Clarry and chunk should not be in the starting 4 in the middle either.  They are coal faced and unable to get the ball to the outside cleanly enough often enough to justify playing two or three at the same time.

At least two of Tracc, Gus & Harmes need to be in with one of those three (assuming Chunk plays on) to improve our outside capability in 2020 and a genuine speedy outside winger who can finish is needed also.

All good points RN, and get Fritsch out of the backline FFS and play him in the wing for the rest of the season 

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1 hour ago, Rusty Nails said:

Our mids have dominated other teams on occasions in clearances and inside 50s, even some very good ones like the Pies and the Cats.  Some poor delivery and methods (bombing to hot zone far too often etc).  But the forwards have either fluffed many of the entries ...

There was some discussion about this on On the Couch (I think it was), pointing out that it was a lack of system, predictability and skill in the mids that was having a negative impact on the forwards.

Chain of possession coming through the midfield, forward makes lead, but then last players in the upfield chain fluff the disposal/connection or hesitate ... forward is left out of position and/or manned up when the ball finally comes in.

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9 hours ago, Hell Bent said:

All good points RN, and get Fritsch out of the backline FFS and play him in the wing for the rest of the season 

I have noticed of late he seems to be playing around that area and even just outside the arc HB.

Possibly just part of a high press or is he actually being asked to play off a wing for times during a match?  His form and output has improved bIg time in the last two or three matches anyway.  I could be imagining things and he is playing the same HB role and has just found form.  Hard to know unless you watch individuals intensely and who has the time to do that!  Maybe someone else on here has or has some inside Intel! 😄

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Whilst we are on the bye, I wonder @Rusty Nails, how many players over a weighted score of 5 a team should have?  We currently have 2, one at 4, then drop off into the threes pretty fast from there.  It would seem that we lack elite talent (or elite performances), and a huge drop off to mediocre certainly describes our season.

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, bing181 said:

There was some discussion about this on On the Couch (I think it was), pointing out that it was a lack of system, predictability and skill in the mids that was having a negative impact on the forwards.

Chain of possession coming through the midfield, forward makes lead, but then last players in the upfield chain fluff the disposal/connection or hesitate ... forward is left out of position and/or manned up when the ball finally comes in.

I have no experience other than high school footy and no idea how forward craft works BIng, so if the experts are saying this they must be seeing the evidence of that happening.

Personally i believe the blame doesn't lay 100% with the mids delivery.  Partially yes.

But a significant part might also lay with the forward craft, or lack thereof, of the forwards themselves!

This excerpt from Nick Reiwoldt (and a little at the end from Lyon) on Tracc's forward craft in April, gives some insight into what might be lacking down at Demonland  in his mind.  Are there similar issues happening with T-mac, Weids etc?  (Poorly coached/drilled or just not capable?).  Is Melk generally better at it (when fit and in form) having come from a different club that coached and drilled this craft better and we just see a carry over from his time at Essendrug?  Is Tracc a fail up forward more as a result of his poor kicking technique even if he has learned a little more forward craft of late?  Playing him through the middle seems like the best course if so at this point, as witnessed on QB...

“I don’t see any craft in his game,” Riewoldt told SEN Breakfast.

“When I say craft, when you’re a forward in particular you’ve got someone playing on you constantly the whole time, trying to stop you getting a kick. But if you’re fast and he’s fast being a defender, well then it’s going to be a foot race. You’re essentially playing athletics.

“Defenders now are so good at being able to go with you step for step and get in a fist. You have to try and create some separation for you somehow, this is where the craft comes in.

“There are so many ways to create that separation. You can try and get in behind the defender to make him turn his head at the ball, you can stand and push and give yourself a metre, with a push lead. I don’t see any of that from Christian Petracca,

“What I see is he’s always been the bigger kid, he’s always been more talented and he’s going to beat you on talent. There’s an opportunity for him to take his game to the next level by implementing some forward craft into his game.”

Demons great Garry Lyon explained Petracca was targeted 14 times in their loss to Geelong on Saturday night, but the 23-year-old failed to hit the scoreboard and had “enormous work to do”.

Edited by Rusty Nails
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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, buck_nekkid said:

Whilst we are on the bye, I wonder @Rusty Nails, how many players over a weighted score of 5 a team should have?  We currently have 2, one at 4, then drop off into the threes pretty fast from there.  It would seem that we lack elite talent (or elite performances), and a huge drop off to mediocre certainly describes our season.

Wow, a bit like how many super stars is enough to win us a premiership Buck?  And what are their short medium and long term scores like?  The answer is probably as many as possible and for us we probably need half the team reaching 5 plus!  I'm joking of course but given our parlous mental state this might not be far from the truth.

As you know, stats in general are just a rough historical look at what may have taken place on the day.  And as a one off (ie., one match stats only) a very rough look at that!   Something that can never capture all the nuances that went down and so many of the public ones are pretty rubbery if looked at in isolation in a one off snap shot.

Great example is a mid running with an opponent in a heavy lock down.  He probably isn't going to score that highly (or put a score up that he might usually put up) on the day and if doing his job well or adequately, neither is his opponent.  When you look back at a weighted score along the lines of what i am putting up or say a supercoach type score, they can be quite deceiving and a low score for the shut down player might result, but yet he we know he did his job and kept opponent X to a lowish output on the day in comparison to most weeks.

Everyone who saw the match praises his job on the day and no one looks at the score and says "hey Jim Bob must have played a crappy game he only scored 50 on SuperCoach" or say 1.75 on my composite thingy.  That is unless you didn't go to the match or watch it.  And that's where stats can be a huge no no when assessing anything to do with sport if looked at in isolation with no context.

Same can be said for many defenders vs say a wingmen or mids who might be given a free reign on the day.  However, those having seen the match and watched it closely probably have a better understanding of why that score fell out the way it did on that particular day.

Some of these anomalies are why i tend to favour at least 3 rounds of data, where possible, in order to get some sort of gauge on a player's comparative form over a series of matches rather than just one and then also compare them to another past period or block of matches to see if anything dramatic or significant is trending, both with a player or the entire team.

Having said that who do we look at in comparison?  The best from last year in the two grand finalists?  And which three rounds do we pick out to assess and score?    The two finals and the GF from 2018 seems appropriate yes?  May as well look at the best for the year if bothering.  Happy to do this and post the results on each player's score & their team scores also!  I will also put up the GF result in isolation, just out of interest, to see who was sitting where on the day.

We can critique the results and see if the model holds up ok or whether it's complete rubbish and a total waste of time! :laugh: 

On the flip side It might also lead us to understand how many players we need to get to elite output of say 5 or higher as you have mentioned.  Maybe it's more a team thing with a stack of others lifting into the middle sections (eg., 3.0 plus) vs their usual output which might be sitting at sub par levels, which from my experience is roughly around 2 to 2.5 or less.  I can then also throw in our team's best 22 scores from season 2018 as a comparison and see how we compared over the season.  Did we get close or still a fair way off those two during 2018?

Edited by Rusty Nails
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4 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

Wow, a bit like how many super stars is enough to win us a premiership Buck?  And what are their short medium and long term scores like?  The answer is probably as many as possible and for us we probably need half the team reaching 5 plus!  I'm joking of course but given our parlous mental state this might not be far from the truth.

As you know, stats in general are just a rough historical look at what may have taken place on the day.  And as a one off (ie., one match stats only) a very rough look at that!   Something that can never capture all the nuances that went down and so many of the public ones are pretty rubbery if looked at in isolation in a one off snap shot.

Great example is a mid running with an opponent in a heavy lock down.  He probably isn't going to score that highly (or put a score up that he might usually put up) on the day and if doing his job well or adequately, neither is his opponent.  When you look back at a weighted score along the lines of what i am putting up or say a supercoach type score, they can be quite deceiving and a low score for the shut down player might result, but yet he we know he did his job and kept opponent X to a lowish output on the day in comparison to most weeks.

Everyone who saw the match praises his job on the day and no one looks at the score and says "hey Jim Bob must have played a crappy game he only scored 50 on SuperCoach" or say 1.75 on my composite thingy.  That is unless you didn't go to the match or watch it.  And that's where stats can be a huge no no when assessing anything to do with sport if looked at in isolation with no context.

Same can be said for many defenders vs say a wingmen or mids who might be given a free reign on the day.  However, those having seen the match and watched it closely probably have a better understanding of why that score fell out the way it did on that particular day.

Some of these anomalies are why i tend to favour at least 3 rounds of data, where possible, in order to get some sort of gauge on a player's comparative form over a series of matches rather than just one and then also compare them to another past period or block of matches to see if anything dramatic or significant is trending, both with a player or the entire team.

Having said that who do we look at in comparison?  The best from last year in the two grand finalists?  And which three rounds do we pick out to assess and score?    The two finals and the GF from 2018 seems appropriate yes?  May as well look at the best for the year if bothering.  Happy to do this and post the results on each player's score & their team scores also!  I will also put up the GF result in isolation, just out of interest, to see who was sitting where on the day.

We can critique the results and see if the model holds up ok or whether it's complete rubbish and a total waste of time! :laugh: 

On the flip side It might also lead us to understand how many players we need to get to elite output of say 5 or higher as you have mentioned.  Maybe it's more a team thing with a stack of others lifting into the middle sections (eg., 3.0 plus) vs their usual output which might be sitting at sub par levels, which from my experience is roughly around 2 to 2.5 or less.  I can then also throw in our team's best 22 scores from season 2018 as a comparison and see how we compared over the season.  Did we get close or still a fair way off those two during 2018?

Spot on with your comments, Rusty.  For me, the interesting questions that emerge are around the number of ‘elites’ versus a real bolstering in the middle class.  Take a team like Geelong this year, that have been outstanding.  They might be the benchmark.  Or Richmond of their premiership year.  We can then keep an eye on the Melbourne team and see how far off this ‘marker’ we are.  It is a historical analysis that may only be correlative, but it could give us some moderate predictive insight into where we need to improve to get to where we want to go.

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Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

It comes down to forwards who aren't able to finish or capitalise on the monumental inside 50 count over so many games HB.

Check the table above which is a composite of averages from the last three rounds and you will not see one forward in the top 10 for output (the composite scores also account for average goals kicked).

Our mids have dominated other teams on occasions in clearances and inside 50s, even some very good ones like the Pies and the Cats.  Some poor delivery and methods (bombing to hot zone far too often etc).  But the forwards have either fluffed many of the entries or, when given the opportunity, missed very gettable stock standard set shots on multiple occasions.

This is partly to do with 'some' very poor delivery but IMHO a major part of the poor conversion comes down to bog ordinary forward line up who, with a few exceptions, just aren't very good at their craft.

Also most forwards outside of Jeffy, Smith & ANB (when playing) just aren't putting enough heat on players around them when we lose possession either.  We aren't locking the ball in often enough nor causing enough turnovers in the most dangerous part of the ground (for the opp).  They are mostly waltzing the ball out.  Part of that caused by a very slack forward half zoning method.

If we believe this same forward line up is taking us to the promised land (finals or even top 4) in 2020 then we are in for an almighty rude shock.

Personally the signing of Weids was premature but the lessor of two evils (T-Mac).  He does show potential but may well be another long haul option like Watts.  I would happily trade both him & T-Mac along with future picks etc for a genuine KPF (Cameron) if the trade was up for grabs.

Jeffy and Spargo are a delist for mine.

Time to trial Lockhart & Dunkley in the 2nd half.

Hannan & Hunt one more time around on a one year extension.

Tracc goes into the middle and IF chunk plays on he moves into Tracc's role.

Missing Melk in a big way atm obviously along with a genuine speedy small crumbing forward who can hit the scoreboard under heat.

Two or all three of Viney, Clarry and chunk should not be in the starting 4 in the middle either.  They are coal faced and unable to get the ball to the outside cleanly enough often enough to justify playing two or three at the same time.

At least two of Tracc, Gus & Harmes need to be in with one of those three (assuming Chunk plays on) to improve our outside capability in 2020 and a genuine speedy outside winger who can finish is needed also.

It has been a player management, development, training, coaching and analysis failure. Across the board. You are looking at one of the most significant drops collectively across the team that perhaps hasn't been seen since 2002 when Carlton went from a 14-win season and the Semis, to 3 wins, the wooden spoon and the start of a 10+ years at the bottom. Not even in 2007 did we see such a major drop-off.

This isn't relayed on any one player missing, or any specific hole in the ground, or any required players. It has been as collective a failure as I've seen from this club.

Neither Geelong in 2006, nor Richmond in 2016 were this bad. We have literally gone from a Prelim finalists, to (arguably) the worst team in the league. I just can't see Thompson, nor Hardwick, no Clarkson, nor even fricken Hinkley allowing what has happened here to happen. Even Adelaide with every one it was missing last year and all the [censored] that happened, only missed out on a finals spot by one game. 

Goodwin is struggling. Badly. But he's also being badly let down by those around him.

Edited by praha
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I hate to say this, but the statsd guide really fails to take into account the impact the player has.

In this way I refer to Clarrie leading the rankings. On pure numbers he is streets ahead, but in effectiveness of his possessions/disposal I feel he is a big part of the problem in that his disposal via hanjdball at all costs is not enabling us to beak free. The same can be said of Jack V .  We play a lot more effectively when the ball is cleared and Gus and Harmesy should be our targets to move the ball on as they are attacking midfielders rather than accumulators like Clarrie or stoppage people like Jack V.

Question : Is Clarrie dual handed with his handballs, because I feel he is often handballing to his left (by his right hand)  Bit too technical or wrong ???

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57 minutes ago, buck_nekkid said:

Spot on with your comments, Rusty.  For me, the interesting questions that emerge are around the number of ‘elites’ versus a real bolstering in the middle class.  Take a team like Geelong this year, that have been outstanding.  They might be the benchmark.  Or Richmond of their premiership year.  We can then keep an eye on the Melbourne team and see how far off this ‘marker’ we are.  It is a historical analysis that may only be correlative, but it could give us some moderate predictive insight into where we need to improve to get to where we want to go.

I can also take a look at the Cats over any 3 week block from this year Buck.  The Tiges over same in 2017.   Run a comparison to our season so far or alternatively our 2018 season.  Or both.

Let me know if you have a preference.  As long as it isn't both.  Time constraints! 😄

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18 minutes ago, praha said:

It has been a player management, development, training, coaching and analysis failure. Across the board. You are looking at one of the most significant drops collectively across the team that perhaps hasn't been seen since 2002 when Carlton went from a 14-win season and the Semis, to 3 wins, the wooden spoon and the start of a 10+ years at the bottom. Not even in 2007 did we see such a major drop-off.

This isn't relayed on any one player missing, or any specific hole in the ground, or any required players. It has been as collective a failure as I've seen from this club.

Neither Geelong in 2006, nor Richmond in 2016 were this bad. We have literally gone from a Prelim finalists, to (arguably) the worst team in the league. I just can't see Thompson, nor Hardwick, no Clarkson, nor even fricken Hinkley allowing what has happened here to happen. Even Adelaide with every one it was missing last year and all the [censored] that happened, only missed out on a finals spot by one game. 

Goodwin is struggling. Badly. But he's also being badly let down by those around him.

Many have questions about the why Praha.  It has been a mega drop since the prelim as you say.  I would like to think it's a combo of pre-season injuries, Goody's game style being pulled apart, an overly taxing game style impacting the players (mental exhaustion!??), a failure of mids/forwards connecting and a failure of accuracy on set shots (ie., forwards failing badly in general).  Who knows if we will ever get to the bottom of the overall cause/causes!

Certainly one for the ages and not in a positive way.  I was hoping for the reverse this season.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, dimmy said:

I hate to say this, but the statsd guide really fails to take into account the impact the player has.

In this way I refer to Clarrie leading the rankings. On pure numbers he is streets ahead, but in effectiveness of his possessions/disposal I feel he is a big part of the problem in that his disposal via hanjdball at all costs is not enabling us to beak free. The same can be said of Jack V .  We play a lot more effectively when the ball is cleared and Gus and Harmesy should be our targets to move the ball on as they are attacking midfielders rather than accumulators like Clarrie or stoppage people like Jack V.

Question : Is Clarrie dual handed with his handballs, because I feel he is often handballing to his left (by his right hand)  Bit too technical or wrong ???

Dimmy the overall score does take into account the impact of turnovers and only uses 'effective disposals' as well as   'clearances' and not pure disposals (ie., total handballs / kicks etc).  If you like it's attempting to capture the net effect of his output allowing for the good and the bad.

While certainly far from perfect it does allow for the ineffectiveness of many of Clarry's (or anyone else's) poor disposal, should that result in a turnover or a non-effective disposal, at least so far as the basis for effective disposals,  clearances and turnovers holds up.  Unfortunately we don't have access to more robust options at this point so we work with the public ones we have.  

There is no doubt there would be some disposals that are probably more effective than others, including hand balls, especially where Clarry or Viney are concerned.  Some that might be given off may be going to receivers who are in a less optimal position to impact vs others that might be in too close to a stoppage (etc) and more prone to being immediately tackled etc.  The model i put up certainly isn't a perfect science but IMHO it does capture the performance side of effective disposals / clearances and also punishes for turnover.  When Clarry is really on more often you will sometimes see him hit an insane score of 7ish (i can't recall too many others hitting this mark other than select super stars from other clubs).  At other times when he's probably off a fair degree, we are seeing him rack up 4s to 5s.  That's still a huge number, even taking ineffective disposals and turnovers into account (vs other mere mortals, even the very good ones, who are often hitting 3s to 4s at the top end).

Clarry is relatively ineffective with a fair percentage of handballs as you say and we have all seen it.  My argument to counter that is....if he wasn't willing himself to so many contests (above and beyond most other mids in the team) then we would not be getting our hands on the ball as often and the opposition mids would be.  His work rate and 2nd/3rd efforts is incredible for someone of his age/experience and is literally at another level beyond most.  Don't underestimate that impact and the amount of times Clarry is willing himself to the next contest to impact.  Yes much of it may result in another stoppage.  Yes his disposal may not all be as clean as we might like.  But he is getting to so many of those contests and often ripping the ball out of the hands of the opp or stopping them from doing so, at least till the calvary arrives.  The model is capturing some of that effort also (clearances, tackles, inside 50s, rebound 50s, 1%ers etc) on top of everything else he is doing.  Remember also that after hitting so many contests, tackles and running both ways so well, he is probably spent on many occasions, hence the inability to impact more often with cleaner disposal.

I will take this any day over someone who is unable or unwilling to work so damned hard to impact and effect a contest!

I agree, in an ideal world he should be distributing to more impact players out wider into space and more effectively, where possible.  But i would suggest we don't put this all on Clarry.  If the options are there, via us setting up more effectively and most importantly HOLDING those structures out wider for the likes of Clarry, Viney and Chunk to feed out to (via foot or handball),  then they might, more often, be feeding the pill out to them and they're away and off...again more often than we see now. 

When we do this the wingman or outside mids are then able to connect more effectively, having more space (time) in front of them in order to settle and deliver inside 50 or around the arc (in theory maintaining possession for longer).

This is as much a coaching / mid / forward craft / recruiting issue and much to do with setting and maintaining structures (as well as having the appropriate receivers in place out wide who have some pace to put some space between themselves and their opponent) as it is a player issue.  Both the FD & player/s are responsible for implementing, training/drilling and then the player/s executing under pressure.  Yes this includes setting and maintaining structures that will result in better outside looks and results for those on the inside like Clarry and Viney.

Discounting the fact that Clarry probably can ,and hopefully will (with the right support, guidance, training,  structures and personnel out wide to assist), improve his delivery by hand we should not underestimate his output and ability to impact a game.  It is massive and hopefully with some fine tuning there's plenty of upside to come!

As i've said before, with some luck and some clever planning, recruiting and coaching, you can build a premiership team around the likes of Clarry and Big M!  Fingers crossed we do so and don't blow it!

Edited by Rusty Nails

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Interestingly we are still #2 ranked side  in contested possessions & clearances in the competition. They say you win 70% of games when you win the contested ball count which is clearly not the case for us because our contested ball is skewed.

We are the #1 ranked side at winning contested ball at a stoppage but ranked 14th for contested ball around the ground, so as a lot of us are aware we are fine at winning the ball at stoppages it's what we then do with it & how we struggle to win the ball around the ground... 

We are also the #1 ranked side playing on from a mark, which in a modern game where controlling by foot is best. We also take the least marks equal with goal coast, so we rarely take marks but when we do we are off & going. Again our inability to control the football but foot kills us. 

We are the worst side for scores per inside 50 since the inside 50 stat was bought in in 1998. 16.8% of the time we score... We saw last year for large periods of games dominating inside 50 for no score so we there is proof we can turn it around. 

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2 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

I can also take a look at the Cats over any 3 week block from this year Buck.  The Tiges over same in 2017.   Run a comparison to our season so far or alternatively our 2018 season.  Or both.

Let me know if you have a preference.  As long as it isn't both.  Time constraints! 😄

Either, Rusty.  I seriously appreciate the effort you put in to advance the conversation.

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Speaking of stats......now we are 1 game away from the bottom.......does anyone know how many teams have gone from prelim to wooden spoon in one season?

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On 6/12/2019 at 10:18 PM, Hell Bent said:

All good points RN, and get Fritsch out of the backline FFS and play him in the wing for the rest of the season 

What I have been hearing re Fritta is that he doesn't have the endurance to play the wing.......which is why they either play him forward or back.

Most wingers run 14 plus km per game & is why the wing is considered one of the hardest positions to play these days. I'd have him forward for mine as he is one of the best kicks in the team......

Simples!

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On 6/14/2019 at 1:32 PM, Grimes Times said:

If you listen to the latest eps of this podcast it gives a good explanation of whats working and whats not this year re the stats.

https://webplayer.whooshkaa.com/playlist/465?theme=dark&visual=true&episode=383963

This was excellent analysis.  Their view is that we are not that far away, when we simply clean a few things up, such as:

  • Play outside the contest (we smash it inside, but lose it when it move away from the contest)
  • Slow down after marks and control the play more
  • Take more marks
  • Stop butchering the pill, especially with inside 50 delivery.
  • More efficient entry to score ratio (currently lowest ever)

Could we be the best wooden spoon team ever??

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23 hours ago, buck_nekkid said:

This was excellent analysis.  Their view is that we are not that far away, when we simply clean a few things up, such as:

  • Play outside the contest (we smash it inside, but lose it when it move away from the contest)
  • Slow down after marks and control the play more
  • Take more marks
  • Stop butchering the pill, especially with inside 50 delivery.
  • More efficient entry to score ratio (currently lowest ever)

Could we be the best wooden spoon team ever??

It's come to this. Supporters dreaming of silver linings rather than silverware.

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3 hours ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

It's come to this. Supporters dreaming of silver linings rather than silverware.

Yes, silverware is nowhere in sight this year. Wooden kitchenware is....

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Could it be that other teams allow us the cps and clearances and yes even the inside 50s

We have all our players at the ball at stoppages and inside 50 and all our players going for marks

The other teams wait on the outside for us to cough it up or  fluff the kick or hand ball 

They are  already outside and then we have to chase. By the time the last quarter comes along our players are stuffed cant run,cant chase cant kick. Look at the scores against and our poor kicking in last quarters.

The other ting about stats is they don't always tell the whole story.  Clarry against the pies had 38 possessions and gained 58 metres for the whole day, We have so many players who don't really hurt the opposition.

We must design a game plan that plays to our strengths.

Since Hawthorn lost Tom Mitchel they also have an outside problem with two many players at the ball and nobody with the skill that they trust to get it to the outside runners.

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On 6/13/2019 at 8:37 PM, Rusty Nails said:

Clarry is relatively ineffective with a fair percentage of handballs as you say and we have all seen it.  My argument to counter that is....if he wasn't willing himself to so many contests (above and beyond most other mids in the team) then we would not be getting our hands on the ball as often and the opposition mids would be.  His work rate and 2nd/3rd efforts is incredible for someone of his age/experience and is literally at another level beyond most.  Don't underestimate that impact and the amount of times Clarry is willing himself to the next contest to impact.  Yes much of it may result in another stoppage.  Yes his disposal may not all be as clean as we might like.  But he is getting to so many of those contests and often ripping the ball out of the hands of the opp or stopping them from doing so, at least till the calvary arrives.  The model is capturing some of that effort also (clearances, tackles, inside 50s, rebound 50s, 1%ers etc) on top of everything else he is doing.  Remember also that after hitting so many contests, tackles and running both ways so well, he is probably spent on many occasions, hence the inability to impact more often with cleaner disposal.

I will take this any day over someone who is unable or unwilling to work so damned hard to impact and effect a contest!

I agree, in an ideal world he should be distributing to more impact players out wider into space and more effectively, where possible.  But i would suggest we don't put this all on Clarry.  If the options are there, via us setting up more effectively and most importantly HOLDING those structures out wider for the likes of Clarry, Viney and Chunk to feed out to (via foot or handball),  then they might, more often, be feeding the pill out to them and they're away and off...again more often than we see now. 

When we do this the wingman or outside mids are then able to connect more effectively, having more space (time) in front of them in order to settle and deliver inside 50 or around the arc (in theory maintaining possession for longer).

 

Thanks for the explanation and well done on coming up with a credible rating system.

A long long way from some pot shots at players that appear somtimes.

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