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3 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

That is correct LD ...our performance up forward has been diabolical so far and a player who dishes off with reasonable quality can't be expected to complete the good work further up the field.

I would like to see this same comparison if we were managing to hit the side of a barn door more often with shots at goal.

Better would be chains to inside 50.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, buck_nekkid said:

Better would be chains to inside 50.

That article and Healy's explanation is just mash buck.  What constitutes a valid chain?  Where does it start and finish?  Does a scoring chain include both points and goals?  Assuming it includes points, does it also include rushed junk from spoils? Etc.

Clarry needs to clean up much of his work for sure but we can see that by observing.  Not sure if this is very revealing at all tbh.

Edited by Rusty Nails
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, buck_nekkid said:

 

Edited by Rusty Nails

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On ‎5‎/‎19‎/‎2019 at 3:59 PM, Rusty Nails said:

MFC Ave Kicking Efficiency Rankings to Rnd 9, 2019

image.png.7afcf17411ab713c25ba878e94d51b3d.png

 

Courtesy AFL Stats Pro:  Includes players who have played a minimum of 2 games

I always thought Jeffy and ANB were our worst kicks in the side, and now I know its true👍

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1 minute ago, Demon Dude said:

I always thought Jeffy and ANB were our worst kicks in the side, and now I know its true👍

Keep in mind that defenders generally have higher kicking efficiency than forwards. I suspect that's because they are kicking to more options as the ground ahead of them is wider. Forwards, on the other hand, have a narrowing ground and ultimately are penalised if they score a behind rather than a goal, even if the shot at goal is a snap under pressure or from the boundary line.

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Posted (edited)

Round 10, 2019  Demons vs Giants (MCG)

Pure Stats Predictor has the Giants winning by 65 points

Team weighted score from last round (including adjustment for Ins/Outs this round)

Demons  57.15     Giants  85.48

Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) last round

                    Demons                                          Giants

image.png.783ffebd85ac78feac4e31f2bd0f2c45.pngimage.png.6cb4d09c607223b03c07c48149196cbd.png

Aggregate:            23.85                                            34.10

                                             Bottom 6

image.png.a04403f4af41da4b00fdf62282beae85.pngimage.png.d3358392ffd11c1abb07282794669124.png

Aggregate:           8.03                                                     12.78

*Omitted for this match

Tip:  Use landscape mode if viewing from a mobile.

One of the biggest weighted team scores, top 6 and bottom 6 aggregate scores i've ever seen since compiling these over the last 3 years.  However, we know these figures are coming from a very one sided match against the lowly Blues.

What do we take from that?  Very hard to say but but what we can say is the last time we were coming in against a team coming off a match against the Blues the predictor had us losing by 22 points vs the Swans in Rnd 4.  We ended up winning away at the SCG by 26.  So lets say the predictor is off by the aggregate because of a very poor Blues outlier last week and we are 48 points the better (maximum optimism statistically!), we are effectively still down by 17 points.

So, not as bad as the above but suggests a loss is still (statistically) likely.  But as we know this is all historical and merely a snapshot in time.  And football matches are not won and lost on historical data.  It's 22 v 22 so we live in hope that we can bring home the bacon.  1 point ahead at the right time and our season's still alive!

Edited by Rusty Nails
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37 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

Round 10, 2019  Demons vs Giants (MCG)

Pure Stats Predictor has the Giants winning by 65 points

Team weighted score from last round (including adjustment for Ins/Outs this round)

Demons  57.15     Giants  85.48

Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) last round

                    Demons                                          Giants

image.png.783ffebd85ac78feac4e31f2bd0f2c45.pngimage.png.6cb4d09c607223b03c07c48149196cbd.png

Aggregate:            23.85                                            34.10

                                             Bottom 6

image.png.a04403f4af41da4b00fdf62282beae85.pngimage.png.d3358392ffd11c1abb07282794669124.png

Aggregate:           8.03                                                     12.78

*Omitted for this match

Tip:  Use landscape mode if viewing from a mobile.

One of the biggest weighted team scores, top 6 and bottom 6 aggregate scores i've ever seen since compiling these over the last 3 years.  However, we know these figures are coming from a very one sided match against the lowly Blues.

What do we take from that?  Very hard to say but but what we can say is the last time we were coming in against a team coming off a match against the Blues the predictor had us losing by 22 points vs the Swans in Rnd 4.  We ended up winning away at the SCG by 26.  So lets say the predictor is off by the aggregate because of a very poor Blues outlier last week and we are 48 points the better (maximum optimism statistically!), we are effectively still down by 17 points.

So, not as bad as the above but suggests a loss is still (statistically) likely.  But as we know this is all historical and merely a snapshot in time.  And football matches are not won and lost on historical data.  It's 22 v 22 so we live in hope that we can bring home the bacon.  1 point ahead at the right time and our season's still alive!

Be interesting to compare them from the week before (exclude the blues game as an anomaly) and see how we compare up.

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, buck_nekkid said:

Be interesting to compare them from the week before (exclude the blues game as an anomaly) and see how we compare up.

Good point buck!  If i had or find the time i might just do that.  I don't normally go back beyond the last week, as my aim is a crude  attempt to try and capture the opp's latest rough form (without spending hours on it doing last three round averages or whatever) but in this instance that seems a better alternative.

Edited by Rusty Nails
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Round 10, 2019  Demons vs Giants (MCG) - Version B

Pure Stats Predictor has the Giants winning by 4 points

Team weighted score from our last round and the Giant's previous round vs the Hawks

(including adjustment for Ins/Outs this round)

Demons  57.15     Giants  58.96

Following Buck's suggestion i have used the Giant's stats from their match two weeks ago against the Hawks at the G.  The Hawks being a team playing competitively at AFL level vs the Blues from last week (in the first predictor above) who obviously aren't.

A massive turnaround and to be expected given how bad the Blues are at this point.  Strap yourselves in folks...this one looks like it's going right down to the line...again!   COIN FLIP!

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Player / Team Stats Form Guide

To Round 10, 2019  vs  Season 2018

image.thumb.png.162100059f4de3ee7259f0fff8c56a38.png

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On 5/25/2019 at 7:52 PM, Rusty Nails said:

Round 10, 2019  Demons vs Giants (MCG) - Version B

Pure Stats Predictor has the Giants winning by 4 points

Team weighted score from our last round and the Giant's previous round vs the Hawks

(including adjustment for Ins/Outs this round)

Demons  57.15     Giants  58.96

Following Buck's suggestion i have used the Giant's stats from their match two weeks ago against the Hawks at the G.  The Hawks being a team playing competitively at AFL level vs the Blues from last week (in the first predictor above) who obviously aren't.

A massive turnaround and to be expected given how bad the Blues are at this point.  Strap yourselves in folks...this one looks like it's going right down to the line...again!   COIN FLIP!

Thanks for running that, Rusty.  At 3 quarter time, version A was on the money.  We were nowhere good enough for version B, but it showed the influence of the blues game.

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Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, buck_nekkid said:

Thanks for running that, Rusty.  At 3 quarter time, version A was on the money.  We were nowhere good enough for version B, but it showed the influence of the blues game.

Np worth a one off fling Buck.  Unfortunately as you say, the first usual method was more robust at reflecting the difference in form of both teams coming in.

What i learned from method B is we aren't a very good possession team (vs the Hawks) and Goody isn't Clarkson.  And two weeks is a long time in footy let alone one!

Clarkson the master at finding ways to defeat a tricky opponent on odd days.  I'm not sure why Goody didn't at least try and utilise what Clarko revealed against the Giants.  Nor the Port match against the Eagles (dirty flat quick ball method coming inside 50).

We also lacked any sort of intensity required (defensively) that the Hawks probably brought at the ball carrier when they didn't have possession against the Giants.  Was as feeble a 2.5 quarters as I've seen since approx 2015.  We regressed badly in this regard, yet again.

Edited by Rusty Nails
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On 4/23/2019 at 12:53 PM, Rusty Nails said:

Select Season Stat Rankings - 2018 v 2019 (inclusive to Rnd 5)

image.png.1a3c28559cc65e1aec8029722a482493.png

 

image.png.b8cd5a1a86124faed3bb41a1e2177cd1.png

Shows me the team is not working hard enough. Lloyd and Brown have both said it recently

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Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, Kent said:

Shows me the team is not working hard enough. Lloyd and Brown have both said it recently

Yes it might be time to update that given we're another 10 rounds in.  I doubt we would see any improvements and have probably regressed further in some areas Kent.

There's been a fitness conditioning 'off' smell about most of the group all year.  Something seems amiss other than just off season surgeries for those that had them.

Edited by Rusty Nails

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11 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

Np worth a one off fling Buck.  Unfortunately as you say, the first usual method was more robust at reflecting the difference in form of both teams coming in.

What i learned from method B is we aren't a very good possession team (vs the Hawks) and Goody isn't Clarkson.  And two weeks is a long time in footy let alone one!

Clarkson the master at finding ways to defeat a tricky opponent on odd days.  I'm not sure why Goody didn't at least try and utilise what Clarko revealed against the Giants.  Nor the Port match against the Eagles (dirty flat quick ball method coming inside 50).

We also lacked any sort of intensity required (defensively) that the Hawks probably brought at the ball carrier when they didn't have possession against the Giants.  Was as feeble a 2.5 quarters as I've seen since approx 2015.  We regressed badly in this regard, yet again.

So true.  It felt like we really regressed, and I bet our numbers will show this.  We were poor by hand and foot, struggled to take a contested mark, and showed no defensive system that connected to anything forward of the ball.   Complete turn around from the Eagles game. Without Max in the first half, and Viney willing himself to every contest in the second and third, we would have been smashed - worse than we were.  Nothing learned, nothing executed.

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2 minutes ago, buck_nekkid said:

So true.  It felt like we really regressed, and I bet our numbers will show this.  We were poor by hand and foot, struggled to take a contested mark, and showed no defensive system that connected to anything forward of the ball.   Complete turn around from the Eagles game. Without Max in the first half, and Viney willing himself to every contest in the second and third, we would have been smashed - worse than we were.  Nothing learned, nothing executed.

That is what disturbs me most of all. The same problems  displayed in every game.

The players are not learning anything nor are the coaches able to address and  impact the problems.

There is more to this perhaps than we are being told. Its incomprehensible that we haven't improved over the season. Anyway there is no longer an imperative  to win games  in my view. I would like to see them coached and play to a game plan that suits our talent and hopefully we are ready next season.

I  also wouldn't be bothered bringing anyone back too soon, just no point. Another wasted season Ho Humm.

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Posted (edited)

Round 11, 2019  Demons vs Crows (TIO)

Pure Stats Predictor has the Crows winning by 26 points

Team weighted score from last round (including adjustment for Ins/Outs this round)

Demons  53.52     Giants  64.64

Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) last round

                    Demons                                          Crows

image.png.5605c740946f8922718a06f5ca724d25.pngimage.png.c90399534e45747215601cc28bd2e21a.png

Aggregate:               20.98                                        29.05

                                                Bottom 6

image.png.b1b4798fe11a279efa58b105c8fcb8f9.pngimage.png.c1f0f2fd3e7ec1f64add3674edd87584.png

*Omitted for this match

Tip:  Use landscape mode if viewing from a mobile.

Back to the standard method after an attempt at a variation (option B) last week failed abysmally.

Would have given us a very very slim chance this week IF we were to hold it together through the mid field and bring what we brought in the final quarter last week for most of this match as the Crows were less efficient last week than we were up forward.  If you can believe it! (see below)

However this optimism was quickly squashed as soon as i realised the likes of Spargo had been given another game, ahead of Pruess, and the bog ordinary Fritschkreig is more than likely to be played in a defensive role for some unbeknown reason ...again.  We are effectively two men short so forget everything i just said.  And no, not having a go at Spargo & Fritschkreig.  This has come about through poor recruiting catching up with us (lack of depth) and Goody's inability/refusal to recognise that the latter is not a defender's bootlace (at this point).  Shown some promise up forward though! :ph34r:  Actually make that almost three men down...i just recalled Garlett is still a shadow of his 2019 self and even that was just ok.

image.png.96daf48c368f3c4f4ed73d35d14fde24.png

Edited by Rusty Nails
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1 hour ago, Rusty Nails said:

Round 11, 2019  Demons vs Crows (TIO)

Pure Stats Predictor has the Crows winning by 26 points

Team weighted score from last round (including adjustment for Ins/Outs this round)

Demons  53.52     Giants  64.64

Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) last round

                    Demons                                          Crows

image.png.5605c740946f8922718a06f5ca724d25.pngimage.png.c90399534e45747215601cc28bd2e21a.png

Aggregate:               20.98                                        29.05

                                                Bottom 6

image.png.b1b4798fe11a279efa58b105c8fcb8f9.pngimage.png.c1f0f2fd3e7ec1f64add3674edd87584.png

*Omitted for this match

Tip:  Use landscape mode if viewing from a mobile.

Back to the standard method after an attempt at a variation (option B) last week failed abysmally.

Would have given us a very very slim chance this week IF we were to hold it together through the mid field and bring what we brought in the final quarter last week for most of this match as the Crows were less efficient last week than we were up forward.  If you can believe it! (see below)

However this optimism was quickly squashed as soon as i realised the likes of Spargo had been given another game, ahead of Pruess, and the bog ordinary Fritschkreig is more than likely to be played in a defensive role for some unbeknown reason ...again.  We are effectively two men short so forget everything i just said.  And no, not having a go at Spargo & Fritschkreig.  This has come about through poor recruiting catching up with us (lack of depth) and Goody's inability/refusal to recognise that the latter is not a defender's bootlace (at this point).  Shown some promise up forward though! :ph34r:  Actually make that almost three men down...i just recalled Garlett is still in and a shadow of his 2019 self and even that was just ok.

image.png.96daf48c368f3c4f4ed73d35d14fde24.png

Where can i find the Pure stats predictor Rusty?

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9 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

Round 11, 2019  Demons vs Crows (TIO)

Pure Stats Predictor has the Crows winning by 26 points

Team weighted score from last round (including adjustment for Ins/Outs this round)

Demons  53.52     Giants  64.64

Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) last round

                    Demons                                          Crows

image.png.5605c740946f8922718a06f5ca724d25.pngimage.png.c90399534e45747215601cc28bd2e21a.png

Aggregate:               20.98                                        29.05

                                                Bottom 6

image.png.b1b4798fe11a279efa58b105c8fcb8f9.pngimage.png.c1f0f2fd3e7ec1f64add3674edd87584.png

*Omitted for this match

Tip:  Use landscape mode if viewing from a mobile.

Back to the standard method after an attempt at a variation (option B) last week failed abysmally.

Would have given us a very very slim chance this week IF we were to hold it together through the mid field and bring what we brought in the final quarter last week for most of this match as the Crows were less efficient last week than we were up forward.  If you can believe it! (see below)

However this optimism was quickly squashed as soon as i realised the likes of Spargo had been given another game, ahead of Pruess, and the bog ordinary Fritschkreig is more than likely to be played in a defensive role for some unbeknown reason ...again.  We are effectively two men short so forget everything i just said.  And no, not having a go at Spargo & Fritschkreig.  This has come about through poor recruiting catching up with us (lack of depth) and Goody's inability/refusal to recognise that the latter is not a defender's bootlace (at this point).  Shown some promise up forward though! :ph34r:  Actually make that almost three men down...i just recalled Garlett is still a shadow of his 2019 self and even that was just ok.

image.png.96daf48c368f3c4f4ed73d35d14fde24.png

Please DO NOT run option B.  Simply not worth it.  I am hoping that the three inclusions have a big impact, and that Mr hyphen leading their points who played out of the box goes back to normal bog ordinary.  Might smooth things out a bit.  Charlie Spargo - Mr 1.45.  Rush him straight in.

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14 hours ago, Win4theAges said:

Where can i find the Pure stats predictor Rusty?

Just a little spreadsheet i put together a few seasons back W4TA.  Allows me to look at a week in isolation against other teams from previous week's performance which i use for the Stats Predictor.

Also how the boys are tracking vs each other using composite averages over any designated block of rounds.

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10 hours ago, buck_nekkid said:

Please DO NOT run option B.  Simply not worth it.  I am hoping that the three inclusions have a big impact, and that Mr hyphen leading their points who played out of the box goes back to normal bog ordinary.  Might smooth things out a bit.  Charlie Spargo - Mr 1.45.  Rush him straight in.

No harm in trying Buck but yeh won't be running that variation again.

The 3 ins are included in the above predictor using their average composites from this season and last year's season average for Hannan.  It's about as accurate as i can get it for this purpose.

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Player / Team Stats Form Guide

To Round 11, 2019  vs  Season 2018

image.thumb.png.e218629ae57dbb471e4ff8a1c57be0be.png

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Posted (edited)

MFC Ave Kicking Efficiency Rankings to Rnd 11, 2019

image.thumb.png.70c00055a3aeebd01e8dd7ceace9b23c.png

Edited by Rusty Nails

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Posted (edited)

Round 12, 2019  Pies vs Demons (MCG Big Freeze 5)

Pure Stats Predictor has the Demons winning by 17 points

Team weighted score from last round (including adjustment for Ins/Outs this round)

Pies  60.45     Demons  67.92

Top 6 ranked players (composite weighted averages) last round

                          Pies                                            Demons

image.png.0131af05453abece064f3fcc70ff6a80.pngimage.png.90bd53cc9e34cdab25dc69d708b3599a.png

Aggregate:                 24.30                                             29.18

                                                 Bottom 6

image.png.8c393d03288a515aec525b368d190a8b.pngimage.png.17230e344711f33ba55d53ba72762f0e.png

*Omitted for this match

Tip:  Use landscape mode if viewing from a mobile phone.

Last week's performance was statistically our best 'Team' game for the year and only 3.4% off our 2018 average weighted score (69.53)!  Obviously our inaccurate kicking for goal was the difference and the Crows were super accurate (70% conversion is off the charts) but that was it.

The Pies appear to be a fair way off their best footy earlier in the year and we are coming into some decent form with some very solid 'Ins'.  Spargo and Baker will need to lift on last week's performance if we are to win though IMO.  If they put in a similar or worse one then the Pies might get a little closer.  I'm not sure where Lockhart is at by i would much prefer to have him in ahead of Spargo who needs a long stint at Casey.

The only other thing stopping us at this point is accuracy in front of goals.  We at least lowered our vision more often last week.

Harmes to Pendles pls...and IF we can improve our accuracy up forward then everything is pointing to a happy ending prior to the bye.

Edited by Rusty Nails
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Posted (edited)

Player / Team Stats Form Guide

To Round 12, 2019  vs  Season 2018

 

image.thumb.png.3c7e0d29720936e5ea91dd13a2a7ee46.png

Edited by Rusty Nails
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    Casey Articles

    POINT OF NO RETURN by the Oracle

    Conventional wisdom says that a club reaches the point of no return in the AFL competition if it has won less than four matches at the mid point of the season.  What this means for Melbourne is that in order for it to remain in the race for a top-eight position, it must start winning games now. Moreover, It's not enough to win the next game but it must also start stringing wins together to make up for its deficit in both wins and percentage.  With so much at stake there will be no excu

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    A REAL DOWNER by KC from Casey

    When Sam Weideman kicked his third goal at the midpoint of the second quarter of Casey’s game at Downer Oval , Point Gellibrand on Sunday, he put his team 26 points ahead of the goalless Seagulls. Buoyed by the return from injury of Weideman and a number of other AFL-listed Melbourne players including Jordan Lewis, Mitch Hannan, and Jay Kennedy Harris and an impressive start to Jake Lever’s second game on return from his ACL surgery, the Demons were seemingly on top of the world. Lewis and

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Casey Articles

    ANOTHER GIANT PROBLEM by George on the Outer

    On top of its injury problems Melbourne ran into an “in-form” GWS Giants at the MCG in a game which, apart from a final quarter junk-time spree served to highlight the club’s current problems. There’s a virtually non-existent forward line; a plethora of VFL standard players, who might be getting plenty of game experience but most will simply not be up to AFL standard; an inability to kick straight and an ability to waste simple opportunities so that they mustered up only one goal in the fir

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

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