Jump to content

Sign in to follow this  
Skuit

Stats-file 2019

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)

Demonland’s 2019 Home of Stats

A bad time to get the ball rolling on 2019’s stats-file (and an obviously small sample) but hopefully we can keep this thread free of the usual so and so. Yes, stats never tell the full story. Yes, we all have eyes and can see what’s unfolding on the field. Yes, there’s only one stat that matter at the end of the day. But they can be a useful predictor to note trends and see which way things might be heading. Facebook isn’t worth $500 billion because of its advertising.

Where there’s a negative stat – e.g. tackles against – it’s ranked in order of desirability; 18th being the most tackles against.

Clearances – 1st

Centre Clearances – 1st

Contested Possessions – 2nd

Tackles – 2nd

Inside 50 – 5th

Tackles i-50 – 1st

 

CP Against – 18th

Tackles against – 18th

Uncontested Possessions – 18th

UP Against – 14th

 

Disposal Efficiency – 16th

Turnovers – 17th

Intercepts – 17th

Clangers – 13th

 

Contested Marks – 18th

CM against – 9th

Marks i-50 – 9th

 

Notes: The three teams with the least number of kicks are the bottom three teams – the only such reliable indicator. Port and Geelong are 2nd and 3rd for clearances (and 1st and 4th for contested) but we’re only 12th for clearances against – indicating they could both well be particularly strong in this area. Both finished in the top six for contested and clearances last year.

Summary: Despite not yet fully firing, the footy department would be pleased we’re still leading our key stat departments: contested, clearances, tackles. The decent number of inside-50 marks and tackles is a surprise (the latter perhaps highlighting our lack of crumb). We’re also forcing a contested battle as evidenced by the number of contested possessions and tackles against.

Our skills are clearly letting us down though – with high turnovers, intercepts against and poor efficiency. We’re not a big uncontested possession team (9th last year) but ranking dead last is an issue – bombing forward and lacking or not finding run/options. Goodwin: we need better connection and to get the fundamentals (skill execution) right. We are no doubt still rusty.

Also of concern, last year we were 2nd for contested marks and 3rd for intercepts – now bottom two for both. With Pedo and Hogan gone, Max struggling to get off the ground, Tmac out of sorts and Lever on the sidelines, we’re getting beaten in the air. Lever, Lewis and Smith were also among our top five intercepters last year – as well as Jetta who is well down on form.

Next up: the Bombers are in the bottom-five for just about every category bar contested marks and clearances, both 7th, but interestingly they are last for centre-clearances and second for stoppages. Our previous two contests have been uneven affairs due to us having an extra day's rest on short-turnarounds – so I don’t think much can be read into the stats there.

Go Dees!

 

 

 

 

Edited by Skuit
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Love 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

Stats Predictor has the Bombers winning by 10 Points

 

Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) last round

              Demons                                          Bombers

image.png.b5122bfe6476a8db1b6b52c1736a716b.pngimage.png.4142b41b8b792b653108b2c6a938ebc7.png

Bottom 6

              Demons                                         Bombers

image.png.e5f52b34c00259d8d3b6c5c3ad5dae31.pngimage.png.1ab2c2e7bb81337a9b08a925d2197241.png

Note:  Composite does not account for hit outs to advantage.

Edited by Rusty Nails
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Opposition goal-scoring strike rates in 2019:

  • Essendon - 20 goals from 53 entries, which is a 37.7% strike rate
  • Geelong - 20 goals, 48 entries, 41.7%
  • Port - 12 goals, 59 entries, 20.3%

Opposition overall scoring strike rates in 2019:

  • Essendon - 30 shots, 53 entries, 57%
  • Geelong - 26 shots, 48 entries, 54%
  • Port Adelaide - 27 shots, 59 entries, 46%

So pretty much we're conceding a score every second time our opponent gets inside our defensive 50 and a goal every third time.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Opposition goal-scoring strike rates in 2019:

  • Essendon - 20 goals from 53 entries, which is a 37.7% strike rate
  • Geelong - 20 goals, 48 entries, 41.7%
  • Port - 12 goals, 59 entries, 20.3%

Opposition overall scoring strike rates in 2019:

  • Essendon - 30 shots, 53 entries, 57%
  • Geelong - 26 shots, 48 entries, 54%
  • Port Adelaide - 27 shots, 59 entries, 46%

So pretty much we're conceding a score every second time our opponent gets inside our defensive 50 and a goal every third time.

Worst defensive side in the league. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) Rnd 3 vs The Bombers...

image.png.5f308dd63d01409ee29a619d99ceafc8.png

Bottom 6 ranked players...

image.png.8837f917ef2bdcdda71ba84f9c9e4cd2.png

Note:  Composite does not account for hit outs to advantage.

Edited by Rusty Nails

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

Normally i would not post any weighted average rankings till at least round 6 as the amount of data to go on just isn't robust enough.  And in this case the same principle applies so best not to take too much notice of the table below, especially with some players having played only one match and others coming in under done etc. 

However, thought i'd go a tad early due to the less than stellar beginning to get a very rough idea where some players are at, even at this premature phase, versus their entire 2018 season averages.  Will revisit this again after Rnd 6 vs 2018 and also compare the block of 3 games from tomorrow evening through to the Tigers and compare percentage & rank changes vs the first 3 rounds.

Whoever it was in the press who said Clarry (among others) is a bit off, needs to have a rethink IMHO.  May be a tad up and down (who isn't / wasn't in the first 3 rounds) but over the 3 matches so far he has started pretty much exactly where he left off in 2018, and that after surgery on both shoulders! 

This is the stuff legends are made of....get around him boys!  Premierships are won off the back of great players with courage such as Clarry, as long as everyone pulls in the same direction (and most gaping holes filled with solid recruiting!).   Carn the Mighty Demons!

image.png.dc42facb92b86276e2e58ea2f5f2f1bc.png

Note:  Big M's stats do not include hit outs to advantage.  His ranking would obviously be altered if there was some way of including this stat specific to ruck work only.

Edited by Rusty Nails
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks Rusty, always appreciate your stats.  I know it’s early, but a few surprises emerging.  Clarry doing well.  Viney, TMac Hibbard and Trac all trending the wrong way...

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/2/2019 at 2:09 AM, Rusty Nails said:

Stats Predictor has the Bombers winning by 10 Points

 

Not a bad effort Rusty. Do I want to know what it predicts for this week?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Skuit said:

Not a bad effort Rusty. Do I want to know what it predicts for this week?

🏼 cheers Skuit and Buck.  I took a sneak peak straight after the Swans match ....lets just say it wasnt exactly warming 🙈  Although they were playing the Blues so maybe, just maybe, things are out of whack on their numbers.

I'll try and adjust for Ins / Outs (where possible) after tonight's announcements before hitting the prediction button and posting on here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for your effort.

Our engine room is firing based on those stats but the clearance and transition rates are a major indictment on the midfield group. It goes to show that winning the ball isn't enough: using an old cliche, you need to run both ways.

The value of your clearances and ability to score is only as strong as your ability to defend. TBH there were more positives in our loss vs Geelong than against Essendon.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, praha said:

Thanks for your effort.

Our engine room is firing based on those stats but the clearance and transition rates are a major indictment on the midfield group. It goes to show that winning the ball isn't enough: using an old cliche, you need to run both ways.

The value of your clearances and ability to score is only as strong as your ability to defend. TBH there were more positives in our loss vs Geelong than against Essendon.

Such a complex and difficult game Praha.  Hoping it's more an under done fitness/tank issue that's impacting the defensive two way aspect.  The outs are definitely impacting also.  No point being too harsh at this point but at some stage those who seem to be way off it vs last year (trend wise) need to start lifting their output/form.  If we had a few more knocking on the door at Casey it might help also.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, Optimus D said:

Is there a fumble factor or ugly football factor in the realm of footy statistics.

Clangers and Turnovers would probably go some way towards it Optimus.  That's all we have at public level.  Champion data may have something more specific we aren't privy to.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Stats Predictor has the Swans winning by 26 Points (excludes allowance for umpiring bias!).

Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) last round

                             Demons                                                           Swans

image.png.41684a2f5357046741499f56368de80e.pngimage.png.5601b0b09a9f8ec69ea7bad190b10209.png

Bottom 6

                            Demons                                                            Swans

image.png.e20fc200fe71f32ad7cc9e715b5780c5.pngimage.png.9f7d15b2a23f281f5e551ad5aa294932.png

*Omitted for Rnd 4 2019

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Probably belongs in the Clarry thread, but (courtesy of some twitterist named @sirswampthing):

Fewest career games to register 10 games of 20+ contested possessions

64 - Clayton Oliver
65 - Patrick Cripps
81 - Josh Kennedy
94 - Nat Fyfe
110 - Tom Mitchell

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, Skuit said:

Probably belongs in the Clarry thread, but (courtesy of some twitterist named @sirswampthing):

Fewest career games to register 10 games of 20+ contested possessions

64 - Clayton Oliver
65 - Patrick Cripps
81 - Josh Kennedy
94 - Nat Fyfe
110 - Tom Mitchell

Exalted company no doubt A champion and we are so lucky to have Clarry and not a Parishioner!!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Also, while I'm here, may as well add some other MFC-related tid-bits from this swamp guy.

Biggest hit-out differentials in a game - @AFL era

+66 - 2015 R12 - nth (89) v gws (23)
+60 - 2019 R04 - MELB (73) v SYD (13)
+59 - 2015 R09 - frem (86) v adel (27)
+56 - 2016 R09 - wce (71) v port (15)

Most recent MELB players to have 20+ disposals and 3+ goals in a game vs SYD

2019 R04 - NATHAN JONES
2007 R05- Aaron Davey
2000 R18 - Shane Woewodin
2000 R03 - Andrew Leoncelli
1993 R13 - Garry Lyon

Melb vs. Syd: the third time in past 3 years that sets of brothers from 3 different families have all played in the same V/@AFL game

2017 R18 ADEL v GEEL & 2018 R16 MELB v FREM being the others. The overall V/@AFL record for sets of brothers from different families playing is 5 (most recently in 1933).

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, 58er said:

Exalted company no doubt A champion and we are so lucky to have Clarry and not a Parishioner!!

I put this one together a couple seasons back - with several players still current it needs an update if anyone can be bothered. Cripps may have entered the list by now as well. A fair few Brownlows among this crop.

The most contested possession across two games (career):

Patrick Dangerfield - 48 (2017; in career games 190/191)
Clayton Oliver - 46 (2017; in career games 30/31)
Josh Kennedy/Nat Fyfe - 46
Chris Judd - 44
Gary Ablett Jr. - 41
Dustin Martin/Jobe Watson - 40
Joel Selwood - 39
Dane Swan - 37
Trent Cotchin - 36

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Skuit said:

I put this one together a couple seasons back - with several players still current it needs an update if anyone can be bothered. Cripps may have entered the list by now as well. A fair few Brownlows among this crop.

The most contested possession across two games (career):

Patrick Dangerfield - 48 (2017; in career games 190/191)
Clayton Oliver - 46 (2017; in career games 30/31)
Josh Kennedy/Nat Fyfe - 46
Chris Judd - 44
Gary Ablett Jr. - 41
Dustin Martin/Jobe Watson - 40
Joel Selwood - 39
Dane Swan - 37
Trent Cotchin - 36

Go Clarry !!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Round 5, 2019 Demons vs Saints MCG

Pure Stats Predictor has the Saints winning by 10 Points (includes best estimate for Ins/Outs)

Team weighted score Last Round prior to Ins/Outs....

Demons 53.93   Saints  61.10

                Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) last round

                             Demons                                                           Saints

image.png.8d06934da3d0b6a8e9b7a82a6ba63530.pngimage.png.8b4e2bf28eaabaf2715973d7b98185b6.png

                                                                  Bottom 6

                            Demons                                                            Saints

image.png.bf33bff2bdb03dfb6928b4b529189b2d.pngimage.png.921008336907b1d388188e9ce7338ef3.png

*Omitted this round (5) 2019

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

Round 5, 2019 Demons vs Saints MCG

Pure Stats Predictor has the Saints winning by 10 Points (includes best estimate for Ins/Outs)

Team weighted score Last Round prior to Ins/Outs....

Demons 53.93   Saints  61.10

                Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) last round

                             Demons                                                           Saints

image.png.8d06934da3d0b6a8e9b7a82a6ba63530.pngimage.png.8b4e2bf28eaabaf2715973d7b98185b6.png

                                                                  Bottom 6

                            Demons                                                            Saints

image.png.bf33bff2bdb03dfb6928b4b529189b2d.pngimage.png.921008336907b1d388188e9ce7338ef3.png

*Omitted this round (5) 2019

Wow.  Our top 6 all score below any of their top 6.  That seems bizarre!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, buck_nekkid said:

Wow.  Our top 6 all score below any of their top 6.  That seems bizarre!

Possibly an indicator of form ....or maybe not Buck.  The differing outcomes might also be a result of the quality of the opposition on the day/night in question. 

Other factors such as a high pressure match versus free flowing in the other etc.  Far from a perfect science especially using one set of numbers from one match to compare.  Comparing averages over 3 to 4 weeks probably a bit more robust.

P.S. Our bottom 6 are better!! :laugh:

Edited by Rusty Nails
  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, buck_nekkid said:

Wow.  Our top 6 all score below any of their top 6.  That seems bizarre!

The saints have won more games than us this year,  so far.   They have had better form.

But we are starting to move.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting stats posted on the AFL website in an article having a significant crack at us.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-04-22/stats-files-whos-become-the-poster-boy-for-dees-plight

Most interesting to me is the CP differential statistic. We were +17.7 in 2018 for CPs (i.e. we averaged 17.7 more CPs then our opposition).

This year we are -1.6.

Our "one wood" is to dominate CPs, get first touch on the ball and bully our opposition's midfield. When we do that, we get confidence, our opposition's midfield has less impact, and I reckon we find ourselves converting more inside 50s (last year we scored from 46.4% of our inside 50s, that figure is down to 33.7% this year).

We've built our list, and moulded our gameplan, around a starting fundamental of dominating CPs. We're not doing that this year and IMO many of the rest of our problems stem from this.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I came across this last night. 

Scary reading as the problem is getting worse with each loss...

674DAF5C-FFEB-4EAB-80AD-7224A1D4B7A1.jpeg

Edited by Sir Why You Little
  • Angry 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Social Media

  • Match Previews, Reports & Articles

    RED AND BLUEPRINT 2019 by Whispering Jack

    The rusty red of the McDonnell Ranges and the blue skies above them provided the perfect backdrop that summed up everything about the Melbourne Football Club’s 2019 season. It set out the perfect red and blueprint for the club’s horror year. The club’s previous season was one of great promise but it ended in a calamitous way in Perth with an 11 goal defeat at the hands of the ultimate premiership side, the West Coast Eagles in a game where the Demons’ first goal came early in the third quar

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    WINDY DAY FOOTY by KC from Casey

    Windy day footy has always been the domain of those who play the game hard: on days when the breeze gusts all over the place and the ground has been sodden by recent rains, the player needs to get all aspects of his game together and be hard of body and mind, to concentrate and attack the football. The Casey Demons came out on their own deck in such conditions and under a mainly sunny sky and gave it a crack for half a game but they lost sight of the fundamentals of playing hard in difficul

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Casey Articles

    TRECIMATED by George on the Outer

    A little more than two months have passed since Melbourne met and came close to beating the reigning premier West Coast in the preliminary final replay over in the West. At the time, the Demons had three wins on the board and now, nine rounds later and going into this week’s match, they have managed to add a paltry two more wins to the ledger.  The Eagles, in contrast, have moved to within percentage of second spot on the ladder despite their loss at home this week against Collingwood. Whil

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    SAME STORY, DIFFERENT SONG by George on the Outer

    Melbourne was still suffering from the same old story - a lack of AFL capable players from which to choose at the selection table - and the Western Bulldogs got to sing their song again. But wait, that wasn’t the Doggie’s song we’ve been hearing for the last 30 years, it was some other concoction and no-one knew the words to it but whatever it was, they got to mumble it with gusto after a huge 8 point win! The sad thing is that the Bulldogs (or Footscray or whatever they choose to call

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    DOGGED by KC from Casey

    On Sunday, the Casey Demons met the Footscray VFL under the roof at the same venue where their nemesis took them down in the 2017 grand final and the result left them with the same feeling of disappointment - this time with a seven point defeat that ended the club’s four game winning streak and made things a lot harder in terms of playing in this year’s final series.   And, as has so often happened this year, the Demons let the game get away from them with but failing to take advantage of th

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Casey Articles

    BARKING MAD by The Oracle

    There was so much hype proliferating about Melbourne’s prospects for season 2019 a mere four months ago, that one could be forgiven for thinking anyone contemplating the prospect of a bottom four finish for the Demons at the time was barking mad. That however, is the prospect that they face at the moment and a loss to the Bulldogs on Sunday would make it a virtual certainty.  The club’s downward spiral after several years of moving steadily on an upward trajectory has been well documented i

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    THE MELBOURNE WAY by George on the Outer

    Much has been made by the coaching staff of playing a “Melbourne way” style of play. The nail-biting finish by the Demons in the dying minute of the game could not have been any more the case in point.   Leading by a game-high 38 points late in the third quarter, and by five goals at the final change, this should have been the catalyst for a romp home to an easy win.   But that is not the “Melbourne way” and the supporters, especially those with a severe case of MFCSS (aka intense inse

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    PINK AND BLUE CAN’T KICK TRUE by KC from Casey

    The Casey Demons took on the Northern Blues at home on Saturday  in a game that was crucial in terms of their hopes for September and they took away the valuable four points on offer after some worrying moments. Most of those worries were self-inflicted as a result of some shocking inaccuracy in front of goal, sloppiness in play and a little bit of indiscipline that all combined to make the game a lot closer than it should have been. The final scoreboard showed the Demons winning the P

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Casey Articles

    GO FIGURE by Sam the Stats Man

    In May last year, a rampant Melbourne side demolished Carlton by 109 points at the MCG. The Demons did as they pleased and ran rings against a young, abysmal Blues combination. The Dees led in virtually every key performance indicator, notably entering the inside 50 metre mark 63 times to 33 and the superiority of their attack was highlighted by a 74% shooting accuracy rate (to 47%).  A little more than a year later the two sides face each other for the first time since that rout and the ta

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews 1

    GORN AT THE GABBA by George on The Outer

    With Melbourne leading the Brisbane Lions in the second term, and the game in the balance, a Max Gawn ankle injury signalled that the Demons were as good as gorrnnn for the match. Without a suitable 2nd ruck and (once again) forced to use either Tom McDonald, Tim Smith or Sam Weidemann in the ruck the Demons found themselves without a forward line that could kick a winning score. Not that anything really changed, as the forward line has been completely dysfunctional all season and one

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    GAMBIT by KC from Casey

    The opening gambit of Saturday afternoon’s game told us everything about who would be its main players and who would come out on top. The Casey Demons were eager to turn the tables on the Box Hill Hawks who beat them in last year’s grand final and then gave them a first up mauling at City Oval, Box Hill. Kicking with the aid of a strong breeze in the opening term, Braydon Preuss’ first hit out went straight to the diminutive Jay Kennedy Harris who pounced with a 70 metre shot at goal that sailed

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Casey Articles

    MURDER BY NUMBERS by Sam the Stats Man

    The respective ladder positions of this week’s combatants tell the story of one side on the rise and the other in steep decline. Since their most recent meeting which took place early last year, the Dees and the Lions have changed positions. They are opposed to each again on the former’s home turf with the locals in fine fettle after blowing St Kilda off the park at Marvel Stadium.  The Lions’ home ground advantage has been a major consideration so far this year. They have won five out of s

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

×
×
  • Create New...