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Stats-file 2019

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, dimmy said:

Thanks for the explanation and well done on coming up with a credible rating system.

A long long way from some pot shots at players that appear somtimes.

Cheers Dimmy.  I wish we were talking about a mostly good news year.  Seen so many ugly ones and the negativity does grate at times.

There's been a few positives from particular players this season but as a team performance what a massive fall it's been off the high of last year.  And let's not go near the poor result up forward.

Hopefully the review changes and the break will see a few more wins.  Rooke out for Rawlings might be the circuit breaker needed to finally see some results up forward for all the good work being done elsewhere (outside of too many ordinary entries).

I personally feel Goody will also need to decouple himself from a few rusted on 'out of form' & NQR players (and bring in the likes of Pruess & Lockhart), add a tempo / slow play possession option and a pretty big clean out at year's end for us to have a realistic chance of playing finals in 2020 and beyond.

Edited by Rusty Nails
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Posted (edited)

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Edited by Rusty Nails

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Player / Team Stats - Weighted Composite Score

Rnd 14, 2019  - Demons vs Dockers (MCG)

image.png.410cae9aabb0bb20c8a8775b74885752.png

# Hit outs to advantage not accounted for

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Posted (edited)

Player / Team Stats Form Guide

To Rnd 14, 2019 vs Season 2018

image.thumb.png.5c77d3a3399d8e23c4be79f498f5942d.png

 

 

Edited by Rusty Nails

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Round 15, 2019  Lions vs Demons (GABBA)

Pure Stats Predictor has the Lions winning by 14 points

Team weighted score from last round (including adjustment for Ins/Outs this round)

Lions  62.33     Demons  56.18

Top 6 ranked players (composite weighted averages) last round

                          Lions                                            Demons

image.png.cde3a4f8ad78c321e2721ab73464d811.pngimage.png.9fc1f62eafd412f903322111799d2077.png

                                            Bottom 6

image.png.cfc50b04fa88a2b40a2e26e5c341412a.pngimage.png.64cc9956de2fbc740cfa29228ccf0732.png

* Omitted for this round

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Posted (edited)

Player / Team Stats - Weighted Composite Score

Rnd 15, 2019  - Lions vs Demons (GABBA)

image.png.8fe329cf65b6c78852616aef87dd73a4.png

# Hit outs to advantage not accounted for

Smith's zero is the lowest statistical score by an MFC player all season.  The only worse weighted score by an MFC player since keeping this method from 2018 was Joel Smith with a negative -0.3000 back in Rnd 19, 2018 vs the Crows.

3 effective disposals @ 37.5% efficiency.  1 uncontested mark inside 50, 1 inside 50, 1 tackle, 3 score involvements, 96 meters gained, no goals and 4 turnovers.

Edited by Rusty Nails

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Player / Team Stats Form Guide

To Rnd 15, 2019 vs Season 2018

image.thumb.png.b4866deddb162379243ba04340e7a4b8.png

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Posted (edited)

Player / Team Stats - Weighted Composite Score

Rnd 16, 2019  - Blues vs Demons (MCG)

image.png.783bbec7aee5bb0ea81689a758492a1b.png

# Hit outs to advantage not accounted for

Note:  Hore, Petty and T-Mac only 10%, 57% & 67% game time respectively.  Our second highest team weighted score for the season, only bettered in Rnd 11 vs the Crows (67.275).

 

Edited by Rusty Nails

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10 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

Player / Team Stats - Weighted Composite Score

Rnd 16, 2019  - Blues vs Demons (MCG)

image.png.783bbec7aee5bb0ea81689a758492a1b.png

# Hit outs to advantage not accounted for

Note:  Hore, Petty and T-Mac only 10%, 57% & 67% game time respectively.  Our second highest team weighted score for the season, only bettered in Rnd 11 vs the Crows (67.275).

 

Thanks Rusty for doing all this 

It gives me some idea of an evidence based assessment

I try to review  the players and teams totals with my visual assessment in comparison and it seems to  fairly accurately correlate

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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, Kent said:

Thanks Rusty for doing all this 

It gives me some idea of an evidence based assessment

I try to review  the players and teams totals with my visual assessment in comparison and it seems to  fairly accurately correlate

Cheers Kent.

The interesting one for me on the weekend was Harmes at No.2

Personally i didn't think he impacted the game anywhere near to that level but were the stats lying or was it my eyesight?  He might have done it fairly cleanly, quietly and efficiently?   maybe i was seeing a lack of defensive two way work and lack of pressure when we didn't have it...only 2 tackles?

22 effectives running @ 81.50% DE.  Way above AFL average (approx 73%).  10 Score involvements (only 2nd behind T-Mac with 11!), 5 interceptions, 353 meters gained and a goal.  I guess he must have done some things right!  Might need a new set of specs or maybe i should watch the replay :huh:

Edited by Rusty Nails

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Posted (edited)

Player / Team Stats Form Guide

To Rnd 16, 2019 vs Season 2018

image.thumb.png.eb85937acfec49718dcf6c23262dddd3.png

Note:  Did not include Hore's weighted stats score from Rnd 16 in his season score given he only played 10% of the match prior to breaking his collarbone.

The most improved this season so far is Frosty up 17 places and 21% higher than his 2018 season output.  That's a pretty massive gain in anyone's language.

Just as massive but in the opposite direction, Spargo, down 45% on his 2018 season.  The biggest drop in ranking is still Tommy, down a massive 14 places but gaining two places on last week after his best game for the season against the Blues.  Of course we then see him catch the dreaded curse and he's out till 2020.  Can't catch a break this year.

Edited by Rusty Nails
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Posted (edited)

Player / Team Stats Form Guide

Rnds 13 to 16 (includes the bye), 2019  vs  Season 2018

image.png.3d4460dc820756cef29c83865e57eea7.png

A small sample size but some sort of indicator of form from the last block of three matches.

Ignore Petty's amazing percentage as there was only one match last season so no averages to work off and we only have one match from Lewis so that's a potential outlier as well, albeit quite a one off result from the old fella.  Jones boy almost back to his 2018 form and Viney has improved substantially vs pre-buy form.  He was off anything from approx 21% up to 45% vs 2018 for most of this season prior to this block.

Frostmeister the stand out, he's gone balastic and launched into a top 10 ranking!  A few injuries impacting in here including Big M and possibly Bull Smith in his last match.  Tommy getting back to his 2018 best then of course...out grrr.

The biggest worries Gus, Fritschkreig, the Hibb & Weid.  A fair way off 2018 in this block.

Interesting to note we roughly halved the 15% plus gap in our team score for most of the season vs the 2018 season average score, although it was better in the 3 match block just before the buy, only off by about 7% so we have actually regressed a tad since the buy.

Edited by Rusty Nails
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https://www.statsinsider.com.au/afl/shot-charting

Given all the talk about our accuracy I thought this might interest some. Thanks to the ever wonderful place that is the internet. People have been compiling a shot chat since the start of 2018. For those interested in seeing who is shooting and from where.

Here's a few of interest (Marty's is my favourite)

Screenshot_20190711-084150.thumb.png.0651da69efacfc22b25bae0bec3248ef.png

Screenshot_20190711-084128.thumb.png.acd4a39739fac36a5acc2a3f3345bb9c.pngScreenshot_20190711-084215.thumb.png.13e9f63192396799410df6089533ca4b.png

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Pretty cool @ArtificialWisdom. One could spend a fair bit of time scrolling through all the data. That’s as thorough as it gets. Hogan isn’t too bad from the 50+ range.

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Posted (edited)

Player / Team Stats - Weighted Composite Score

Rnd 17, 2019  - Dogs vs Demons (Marvel)

image.png.f3f9b6d272ff8647cb9196bdaa76702e.png

# Hit outs to advantage not accounted for

Our 2nd worst team score for the season with the only match bettering this one, Rnd 6 vs the Tigers.  Jetta coming in severely under done.  Hannan completely out of form and more than likely a match fitness / zero tank issue, in serious need of a spell at Casey.  Clarry's 2nd lowest score for the season also.  His lowest against the Giants in Rnd 10.  Usually easily in the top 3 to 5 every week however so no shame in having the off week, especially for such a young fella in a bog ordinary season.  Will bounce back next week no doubt.

Scores from the top 6 and bottom 6 (in particular) both pretty abysmal also.

On a positive note this was Viney's best result / output for the season by a fair way, his previous best score 4.200 against the Saints in Rnd 5.  It was also his first time at the No.1 ranking for the season.

Edited by Rusty Nails
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Posted (edited)

Player / Team Stats Form Guide

To Rnd 17, 2019 vs Season 2018

image.thumb.png.e85d04e75f12bdb8a820c221c7487a85.png

All that Red!  Frostmeister, Hunt, Harmes, Salem & Big M the lone beacons in a season to forget!  Maxy i'm including in there as if we were to add a "hit outs to advantage"factor i would estimate his score about 20% higher than his present score (or more), places him in about 3rd position on this scale overall.

Edited by Rusty Nails

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15 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

Player / Team Stats Form Guide

To Rnd 17, 2019 vs Season 2018

image.thumb.png.e85d04e75f12bdb8a820c221c7487a85.png

All that Red!  Frostmeister, Hunt, Harmes & Salem the lone beacons in a season to forget!

It seems Billy Stretch doesn't exist for you as well as the coach.

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, dpositive said:

It seems Billy Stretch doesn't exist for you as well as the coach.

After watching Billy pretty carefully in some of his games DP i've found he isn't willing to pull the trigger much, tends to take the easy lateral or backward short options on disposal and pretty ordinary in front of the sticks when he gets the opp also.  In addition he is yet another poor exponent of overhead/contested marking IMO and we already have enough of those.  Rarely if ever marks inside 50 also although maybe he doesn't go inside all that often.  I would be surprised if that is the case though.

A non-impact but clean (low risk) player who refuses to take the game on and utilise the bit of speed he has.  Works hard to get into space for the easy receive with the leg work but that's about where it ends for mine.

If we are to improve as a club and get anywhere near silverware in our life times i really don't think there's a place for the likes of a B.S. other than as a depth option who mostly playes (quite well) for Casey with the occasional call up when our stocks are very low.

Edited by Rusty Nails

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On 7/18/2019 at 8:28 AM, Rusty Nails said:

After watching Billy pretty carefully in some of his games DP i've found he isn't willing to pull the trigger much, tends to take the easy lateral or backward short options on disposal and pretty ordinary in front of the sticks when he gets the opp also.  In addition he is yet another poor exponent of overhead/contested marking IMO and we already have enough of those.  Rarely if ever marks inside 50 also although maybe he doesn't go inside all that often.  I would be surprised if that is the case though.

A non-impact but clean (low risk) player who refuses to take the game on and utilise the bit of speed he has.  Works hard to get into space for the easy receive with the leg work but that's about where it ends for mine.

If we are to improve as a club and get anywhere near silverware in our life times i really don't think there's a place for the likes of a B.S. other than as a depth option who mostly playes (quite well) for Casey with the occasional call up when our stocks are very low.

Thanks Rusty.

id agree from the few occasions I've seen him, I noted he was too hesitant. I put this down to him not adjusting to pace of the game from not enough exposure. I was impressed that he got into space although not always rewarded for that, again saw that as a positive. Haven't noticed the lack of inside50 marking, but could be a consequence of being ignored when in space while we bomb it in to packs.

Not all players are or need to be chaos type players. Yes could be a could depth option but I would be hesitant if not played regularly enough in the ones.

Do you know where he trains? Is it with Casey or the ones?

I have stated before that training may need to concentrate on greater intensity to match the game day situation. Perhaps desperation for a place in the ones may produce that intensity and make instinctive the confidence to take on the game and take better options.

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3 hours ago, dpositive said:

Thanks Rusty.

id agree from the few occasions I've seen him, I noted he was too hesitant. I put this down to him not adjusting to pace of the game from not enough exposure. I was impressed that he got into space although not always rewarded for that, again saw that as a positive. Haven't noticed the lack of inside50 marking, but could be a consequence of being ignored when in space while we bomb it in to packs.

Not all players are or need to be chaos type players. Yes could be a could depth option but I would be hesitant if not played regularly enough in the ones.

Do you know where he trains? Is it with Casey or the ones?

I have stated before that training may need to concentrate on greater intensity to match the game day situation. Perhaps desperation for a place in the ones may produce that intensity and make instinctive the confidence to take on the game and take better options.

Only guessing but i assume it would be with Casey when not a regular upstairs DP.

I would be very surprised if that intensity isn't in our training already.

At the end of the day you can train the house down all you like DP,  taking it to another level on game day really comes from within IMHO.

I sometimes wonder how badly some of the fringe players really want it at times.  Probably why they are fringe in many cases.

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6 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

Only guessing but i assume it would be with Casey when not a regular upstairs DP.

I would be very surprised if that intensity isn't in our training already.

At the end of the day you can train the house down all you like DP,  taking it to another level on game day really comes from within IMHO.

I sometimes wonder how badly some of the fringe players really want it at times.  Probably why they are fringe in many cases.

Yeah agree but do not think fringe players want to be fringe players. There arè so many aspects which impact but communication is the most important.

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21 hours ago, dpositive said:

Yeah agree but do not think fringe players want to be fringe players. There arè so many aspects which impact but communication is the most important.

Not saying they want to be fringe DP just saying i'm not sure the desire to take it to another level is there with some.  Communication yes....motivation as well.

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Player / Team Stats - Weighted Composite Score

Rnd 18, 2019  - Demons vs Eagles (TIO)

image.png.80afa30c1ff2d92cac4abf1098c81754.png

# Hit outs to advantage not accounted for

A big step up from last week's super ordinary effort but still couldn't get the chocolates.  Fritschkreig's best match for the year and of course we all know why.  The other usual culprits up top.....Clarry, Salem, Harmes & Big M.

 

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Posted (edited)

Player / Team Stats Form Guide

To Rnd 18, 2019 vs Season 2018

image.thumb.png.13d6c3a23a27ec891488cb685b48d540.png

The biggest improvement ....Fritschkreig...closing the gap on his 2018 form differential by nearly 5% and jumping one place into 9th.

Clarry, Harmes, Gawn (who i would roughly have in 3rd place, or thereabouts, if hit outs to advantage were included) and Salem all improved.  Quite a feet given they were already heading the table.

The biggest drop was the Big P.....dropping a massive 13.7% and 9 places!

We improved our season's team score marginally by approx 0.8% vs 2018.  Not withstanding the fact we still managed to lose both matches, this round was our 2nd best performance statistically (64.925), only beaten by our Rnd 11 performance vs the Crows (67.275).

Edited by Rusty Nails

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