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Stats-file 2019

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32 minutes ago, Skuit said:

I think you may be colour-blind DV8. Do you ever find yourself yelling at the Demons on TV and for some odd reason the commentators won't stop blabbing on about Patrick Cripps?

LoL... Not really, but I used to find myself following the Lions. 😥

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Posted (edited)

Player / Team Stats Form Guide

Rnds 4 to 6, 2019  vs  Season 2018

Note:  No hit outs to advantage included.  Maxy likely to be No.1 for Rnds 4 to 6 otherwise

image.png.6ef7df98bee4dafad0a1858e87f54ce5.png

Edited by Rusty Nails

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Posted (edited)

 

Player / Team Stats Form Guide

To Round 6, 2019  vs  Season 2018

image.thumb.png.bdea25675589249c97c7065797943b0c.png

Maxy missing out on 'hit outs to advantage' obviously impacts his ranking significantly.  Allowance for this would no doubt place him in the top 3 so far this season and the same last season.  Over the last 3 weeks my best guesstimate would likely see him ranked No.1

Some of the ugly differencials vs last season have improved somewhat for some players in the last three rounds compared to the first three abominations, but many still a long way off their average 2018 output (form).  And that's their 'average' vs some of their better or best peak games.

Apart from the key players from 2018 missing this season so far, the four biggest 'trend' concerns for me are...

> Clarry -  fallen away another 10% in the last three weeks from the above 6 week vs 2018 differencial (vs his first three weeks where he was almost on par with 2018);

> Weid -  on a massive downward slide in the last three weeks from his first three rounds (where his output, outside of goal scoring, was up 25% on 2018!);  and

>  Hibb & T-Mac - still tracking off 2018 by insane percentages.

Viney (coming off injury issues), Oscar, ANB, Tracc, Hunt and Jones also, albeit some are starting to improve over recent weeks but obviously off an extremely low ebb in the opening rounds.

A few major positives...

>  Maxy almost back to his best 2018 form in the last three weeks vs a fair way off in the first three week block.

>  Salem managing to increase his output on his average 2018 numbers by a massive 9% across the 6 week block in a perfect storm!

Some small positive trends / wins include...

> J Wag (small sample though of three matches and obviously not favoured by the FD during this block of games although probably pushed out by Nev regardless) and Stretch (again small sample of two matches & need to see a few more games before getting too excited).

Not taking much notice of the asterisked players who have only played one match so far.  Over and out!  (revisit again after Rnd 9).

Erratum:  The 2018 average team score was 69.528 not 60.925 as shown in the Rnds 4 to 6 table posted yesterday (above).  This makes the % differential from Rnds 4 to 6 (vs 2018 season)  -16.79% not -5.05% as shown.  A much more significant difference obviously!

Edited by Rusty Nails
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Posted (edited)

Round 7, 2019 Demons vs Hawks MCG

Pure Stats Predictor has the Hawks winning by 43 points

Team weighted score (includes best estimate for official Ins/Outs, including Keilty)

Demons  46.63    Hawks  65.33

Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) last round

                        Demons                                             Hawks

image.png.4cf74168429dd593894ee21db0bd3a29.pngimage.png.3173b57a1a203d3e6e262c2c90ca9baa.png

Aggregate Score    20.13                                                   27.10

                                                    Bottom 6

image.png.71ed930afb9ee3c4dffb928a78de8236.pngimage.png.bd156478df51df0145dd5c320496b216.png

Aggregate Score       3.60                                                           11.73

*Omitted for this match

The only positive in these numbers is that the predictor had the Swans winning when they came off a win vs the Blues.  The Blues' form might be quite ordinary vs most others in the comp which 'might' be flattering the Hawks' total team score somewhat.  On the downside, we seem to play smaller grounds more effectively vs the G nowadays which might have had a significant assist in our win at the SCG.

Edited by Rusty Nails

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20 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

Round 7, 2019 Demons vs Hawks MCG

Pure Stats Predictor has the Hawks winning by 43 points

Team weighted score (includes best estimate for official Ins/Outs, including Keilty)

Demons  46.63    Hawks  65.33

Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) last round

                        Demons                                             Hawks

image.png.4cf74168429dd593894ee21db0bd3a29.pngimage.png.3173b57a1a203d3e6e262c2c90ca9baa.png

Aggregate Score    20.13                                                   27.10

                                                    Bottom 6

image.png.71ed930afb9ee3c4dffb928a78de8236.pngimage.png.bd156478df51df0145dd5c320496b216.png

Aggregate Score       3.60                                                           11.73

*Omitted for this match

The only positive in these numbers is that the predictor had the Swans winning when they came off a win vs the Blues.  The Blues' form might be quite ordinary vs most others in the comp which 'might' be flattering the Hawks' total team score somewhat.  On the downside, we seem to play smaller grounds more effectively vs the G nowadays which might have had a significant assist in our win at the SCG.

Crikey.  They pants us.  Needing a serious lift across the board to get this done.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, buck_nekkid said:

Crikey.  They pants us.  Needing a serious lift across the board to get this done.

Alot needs to go right Buck but anything's possible.

We still have a solid engine.  The Hawks one of the worst this year in clearances.  Get first use, don't have so many getting sucked into to the contest and use it well with those free on the outside IF we keep our structures.

Scrap the high press and defend deeper up the ground so they cant sling shot out the back as easily as we usually see at the G.

There's many ways to skin a cat.

But even IF we can do some of that the forward /mids / HBs need to connect and forwards need to start hitting the scoreboard.  If this past bit finally starts to click the rest might fall in to place and we might see us shock ourselves out of an early season cardiac arrest!

Edited by Rusty Nails
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Matt BalmerFOX SPORTS

AFL 2019: The newest statistic that is correlating to on-field success

Zac Merrett tackles Patrick Dangerfield. Photo: Julian Smith/AAP Image. Zac Merrett tackles Patrick Dangerfield. Photo: Julian S

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/coupler.foxsports.com.au/api/v1/article/amp/afl/afl-2019-the-newest-statistic-that-is-correlating-to-onfield-success/news-story/49427784c1b396d54bf3628dfd7767b4

Statistical porn...meh.  It's a non-public stat that we rarely get a look at but wouldn't go that far.  Interesting nonetheless.  And i'll give you one guess as to who's in the top 10 for the Mighty Demons!!.

From a team perspective not so good here.  Work to be done but i suspect we will improve as we get players back and existing ones starting to come into some form, which commenced against the Hawks (for some) on Saturday...

20190508_163245.jpg

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19 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:
Matt BalmerFOX SPORTS

AFL 2019: The newest statistic that is correlating to on-field success

Zac Merrett tackles Patrick Dangerfield. Photo: Julian Smith/AAP Image. Zac Merrett tackles Patrick Dangerfield. Photo: Julian S

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/coupler.foxsports.com.au/api/v1/article/amp/afl/afl-2019-the-newest-statistic-that-is-correlating-to-onfield-success/news-story/49427784c1b396d54bf3628dfd7767b4

Statistical porn...meh.  It's a non-public stat that we rarely get a look at but wouldn't go that far.  Interesting nonetheless.  And i'll give you one guess as to who's in the top 10 for the Mighty Demons!!.

From a team perspective not so good here.  Work to be done but i suspect we will improve as we get players back and existing ones starting to come into some form, which commenced against the Hawks (for some) on Saturday...

20190508_163245.jpg

Interesting stuff.

Roos' explanation in the linked article for why the stat is important makes sense and ties into our form - we're probably still doing very well with CPs in the clearances, but we all feel like too often we lose one-on-ones at either end of the ground and rarely win those 50/50 contests outside of stoppages.

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Could explain the explosion in the use by commentators  (hello gary) of the dreaded phrase 'ground ball'.

It annoys me that so much ofvchampion data's data is unavailable to Joe public.

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Posted (edited)

Round 8, 2019 Suns vs Demons (Metricon)

Pure Stats Predictor has the Suns winning by 5 points

Team weighted score (includes best estimate for official Ins/Outs)

Suns  55.80    Demons  54.88

Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) last round

                        Suns                                                     Demons

image.png.eb0e441e7ba6c107615395873bb59156.pngimage.png.19cd53bc30492b05d4c93bb6c8d5f03e.png

                                                Bottom 6

image.png.ddd25ca285aab0d0cb45c511dc0beb91.pngimage.png.21316a00881d3f708e811cd931a9a65d.png

*Omitted this round

Hard to get a gauge on all the changes at the Suns in terms of what they might bring.  For example if three out of the four 'Ins' don't step up the Demons are marginaly in front.  If all four bring a half decent level then we see the above outcome.  If Viney goes ballistic and somewhere back to his 2018 standards and the four GC 'Ins' also perform to a decent standard we are talking a draw etc.

Edited by Rusty Nails
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On 5/9/2019 at 12:39 PM, titan_uranus said:

Interesting stuff.

Roos' explanation in the linked article for why the stat is important makes sense and ties into our form - we're probably still doing very well with CPs in the clearances, but we all feel like too often we lose one-on-ones at either end of the ground and rarely win those 50/50 contests outside of stoppages.

I've heard a few of the players refer to "winning critical one-on-ones" or more one-on-ones/contested possessions across the ground. This must be exactly what they are talking about. Although we're great at winning the contested possession at the stoppage, most of our other players aren't very good one-on-one/contested players. 

Thankfully we improved this over the weekend in the forward line and a bit in the back line. 

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On 5/9/2019 at 12:39 PM, titan_uranus said:

Interesting stuff.

Roos' explanation in the linked article for why the stat is important makes sense and ties into our form - we're probably still doing very well with CPs in the clearances, but we all feel like too often we lose one-on-ones at either end of the ground and rarely win those 50/50 contests outside of stoppages.

I think this is a good stat - it demonstrates that as we win a contest and just bang it away, we are not passing to advantage.  Our rubbish exits from contests are costing us at the next point in the chain.  We have been poor in 1:1 , marking in particular, and in ground ball contests.  It shows in the ladder, and in this stat

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On 5/9/2019 at 12:39 PM, titan_uranus said:

Interesting stuff.

Roos' explanation in the linked article for why the stat is important makes sense and ties into our form - we're probably still doing very well with CPs in the clearances, but we all feel like too often we lose one-on-ones at either end of the ground and rarely win those 50/50 contests outside of stoppages.

That is spot on Titan... No.2 in contested behind Port and No.4 for clearances (averages).  I'll revisit a form indicator on those looking at the last 3 weeks after Rnd 9 and see how we're trending.  Early season form was a tad off and might be skewing those rankings right now.

23 hours ago, binman said:

Could explain the explosion in the use by commentators  (hello gary) of the dreaded phrase 'ground ball'.

It annoys me that so much ofvchampion data's data is unavailable to Joe public.

My question Bin is ...if there's a 'ground ball' why isn't there an 'aerial ball'?

3 hours ago, buck_nekkid said:

I think this is a good stat - it demonstrates that as we win a contest and just bang it away, we are not passing to advantage.  Our rubbish exits from contests are costing us at the next point in the chain.  We have been poor in 1:1 , marking in particular, and in ground ball contests.  It shows in the ladder, and in this stat

My understanding is it is winning the contested ball away from stoppage Buck.  As you say, we haven't been winning so much of the one on ones in the open.  The first 5 rounds, Sydney probably an exception, we were probably smacked up in this area.

Would like to see the rankings from 2018 to see where we were last season.

What we do with clearances (from stoppage or center ball ups) is a separate factor of course, with effective disposals covering that aspect of play in some regard and DE% a fractional reflection of overall disposals, obviously also including ineffective ones.  Ideally we need an effective disposal & DE% stat that also includes pressure factors but at the moment we are stuck with mostly very rough indicators, such as those two.  The FD would no doubt be getting their hands on some of the top level pressure stuff.  At a price of course!

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So not specifically 2019 stats-file but the reminder that Jones was set to become our joint second-most MFC-capped player this weekend had me diving quickly into our other games/seasons' records. Although the sport has of course evolved, of our current squad:

Most disposals in a season (average in brackets):

1) 2018: C. Oliver 734 (29.36)
2) 2017: C. Oliver 659 (29.95)
3) 2016: N.Jones 617 (28.05)
4) 2018: N. Jones 614 (24.46)
6) 2014: N. Jones 610 (27.73)
...................................................
11) 2018: A. Brayshaw 574 (26.09)
16) 2016: J. Viney 548 (26.10)

Next most recent top 10:
(10) 2000: S. Powell 579 (23.16)

Most kicks in a Season: no current player in the top 20

Most marks in a  season:
14) 2015 T. McDonald 155 (7.05)
19) 2016 T. McDonald 148 (6.73)

Bonus stat: Post-forward TMac average marks: 2018 - 6.7 / 2019 - 3.7

Most handballs in a season:

1) Oliver (2017)
2) Oliver (2018)
3) Jones (2018)
4) Jones (2016)
5) Viney (2016)
7) Tyson (2016)
8. Jones (2014)

Most goals in a season: 19) Tmac - 53 - 2018 (2.65) / bonus stat - avg. goals: 2019 (0.43) / 2015 (0.23)

Most behinds in a season: no current player in top 20 (but bless A. Jakovich's cotton socks for his 4.07 average)

Most hit-outs in a season: 2018 M. Gawn 1119 (44.76) - next closest non-Gawn: 2010 M. Jamar 561 (29.23)

Most contested marks in a season 2) 2018 M. Gawn - 55 (2.2)

Most tackles in a season:

1) Oliver (2018)
2) Oliver (2017)
3) Viney (2016)
5) Harmes (2018)
8.  Viney (2017)
11) ANB (2018)
12) Jones (2016)

Most clearances/contested in a season: 1) 2018 C. Oliver

Most free in a season: No current player in top 20 . . .

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Posted (edited)

Round 9, 2019 Eagles vs Demons (Optus)

Pure Stats Predictor has the Demons winning by 1 point

Team weighted score from last round (including adjustment for Ins/Outs this round)

Eagles  61.65     Demons  61.88

Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) last round

                        Eagles                                            Demons

image.png.741102cf6561a411fbed1adb231077b1.pngimage.png.042673db454e8f29b892d3937307043b.png

Aggregate Score:     26.13                           27.90

                                                 Bottom 6

image.png.7c1258cc4798706f3970e906b8418d8d.pngimage.png.57e6a8ee32dbe646c5bae1f0dab56848.png

Aggregate Score:      9.23 👉 Post Ins/Outs 👇 8.98     8.60 👉 Post Ins/Outs 👇 8.36

*Omitted this round

Edited by Rusty Nails

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Posted (edited)

Player / Team Stats Form Guide

Rnds 7 to 9, 2019  vs  Season 2018

image.png.80afa2f2f96d42caa3aa71a8fd37f929.png

In a team sense we have edged closer to our 2018 form in the last three weeks (-11.40%) vs Rnds 4 to 6 where we were down by 16.79%.  Still a fair way off 2018 though.

Edited by Rusty Nails

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3 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

Player / Team Stats Form Guide

Rnds 7 to 9, 2019  vs  Season 2018

Note:  No hit outs to advantage included.

image.png.80afa2f2f96d42caa3aa71a8fd37f929.png

love it - can you bold OMAC ;)

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Posted (edited)

Player / Team Stats Form Guide

To Round 9, 2019  vs  Season 2018

image.thumb.png.c754da788d251c2af9d25ba6b8a812e3.png

 

Edited by Rusty Nails

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Posted (edited)

MFC Ave Kicking Efficiency Rankings to Rnd 9, 2019

image.png.7afcf17411ab713c25ba878e94d51b3d.png

 

Courtesy AFL Stats Pro:  Includes players who have played a minimum of 2 games

Edited by Rusty Nails
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MFC Ave Ground Ball Gets inside 50 - Top 10 to Rnd 9, 2019

image.png.b3692f6592d930af2e66630343a6a6d4.png

Courtesy AFL Stats Pro:  Includes players who have played a minimum of 2 games

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MFC Pressure Acts - Top 10 to Rnd 9, 2019

image.png.0d348add658d5b89f47890f9069a10b4.png

Courtesy AFL Stats Pro:  Includes players who have played a minimum of 2 games

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Posted (edited)

Player / Team Stats Form Guide

Rnds 4 to 6 vs Rnds 7 to 9   2019

image.thumb.png.5e76af12ac5297e0e35af6b5b7515132.png

Stats courtesy of footywire.com

Edited by Rusty Nails

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Posted (edited)

Recent article from Foxtel with a stat that may be indicative of which mid fielders are impacting more on the scoreboard in terms of quantity vs quality possessions ...

Screenshot_20190522-140647_Facebook.jpg

Full article in link below...

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/coupler.foxsports.com.au/api/v1/article/amp/afl/afl-2019-most-and-least-damaging-midfielders-revealed-and-its-not-good-news-for-a-dee/news-story/41f1545dad0731937ecbae801531c055

Edited by Rusty Nails

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59 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

Recent article from Foxtel with a stat that may be indicative of which mid fielders are impacting more on the scoreboard in terms of quantity vs quality possessions ...

Screenshot_20190522-140647_Facebook.jpg

Full article in link below...

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/coupler.foxsports.com.au/api/v1/article/amp/afl/afl-2019-most-and-least-damaging-midfielders-revealed-and-its-not-good-news-for-a-dee/news-story/41f1545dad0731937ecbae801531c055

Such nonsense. It might have some merit, but a statistic like this on its own is useless and possibly misleading. Maybe Gaff's and Oliver's chains don't result in as many scores because the players who receive the ball from them subsequently stuff it up.

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35 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Such nonsense. It might have some merit, but a statistic like this on its own is useless and possibly misleading. Maybe Gaff's and Oliver's chains don't result in as many scores because the players who receive the ball from them subsequently stuff it up.

That is correct LD ...our performance up forward has been diabolical so far and a player who dishes off with reasonable quality can't be expected to complete the good work further up the field.

I would like to see this same comparison if we were managing to hit the side of a barn door more often with shots at goal.

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