Match Preview and Team Selection - Elimination Final

[Demonland 72,073]

REDEMPTION by Whispering Jack

Geelong is the ideal opponent for Melbourne to confront in its long-awaited return to finals football. The history of these teams goes back to the game’s very formative years. They were the first two clubs and the rivalry was fierce in the early days; inaugural members of the VFA and then the VFL, they developed rich histories in the last century and together, they took the game overseas in 1963. The Cats won the flag in that year, the Demons prevailed in the next and then it stopped for both of them. 

It was Geelong that recovered the first - they’ve won three flags and enjoyed regular finals appearances over the past dozen seasons. On Friday night, Melbourne will play its first and only final in that time span. 

The teams last met in a final in the 2005 Elimination Final, a spiteful game which Melbourne lost amid suffering a stack of injuries including a career-threatening facial injury to Jeff White sustained in a ruck duel when Geelong’s Steven King’s attempt to kick a ball out of mid-air ended with his errant boot striking the ruckman and breaking his jaw. The Cats went on to win by 55 points. The Demons have beaten them once in the interim - a surprise result in 2015 that heralded the long-awaited advent of another ruckman, Max Gawn, into the ranks of the leading lights of his craft.

The heartbreak of those contests and their closing moments has been well documented. In both encounters, Melbourne was generally superior in most facets of the game but suffered brief lapses that were pounced upon by a more efficient Geelong combination. The Demons were dominant in the inside 50s and in scoring shots but the Cats’ conversion rate was far superior. It’s hard to beat a team that kicks eight straight goals in a quarter to finish with a score of 16.4.100. 

Those results, and indeed almost the entire body of the club’s efforts against Geelong over these past dozen seasons has not only been humiliating but they reached their lowest ebb against this club in July, 2011 when they curled up their toes and lost by 186 points at Kardinia Park. 

To make the recovery complete, it would be fitting for the new Demons and another step towards redemption for the Melbourne Football Club to mark its return to finals football with an emphatic win over the Cats on Friday night. 

THE GAME

Melbourne v Geelong at the MCG on Friday 7 September 2018 at 7.50pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 84 wins Geelong 130 wins 2 draws

At the MCG Melbourne 51 wins Geelong 53 wins

The last five meetings Melbourne 1 win Geelong 4 wins 

The Coaches Goodwin 0 wins Scott 3 wins

MEDIA

TV - Channel 7 live at 7:30pm Fox Footy Channel live at 7:30pm

RADIO -  Triple M 3AW SEN ABC ABC Grandstand

LAST TIME THEY MET Geelong 16.4.100 defeated Melbourne 14.14.98 at GMHBA Stadium in Round 18, 2018

It was a game in which the Cats simply couldn’t do wrong in the second half. They didn’t miss a shot at the goals in the final term slotting in eight goals straight, enabling them to win after the siren.

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

B: Neville Jetta, Oscar McDonald, Jordan Lewis
HB: Christian Salem, Sam Frost, Michael Hibberd
? Dom Tyson, Clayton Oliver, James Harmes
HF: Jake Melksham, Tom McDonald, Angus Brayshaw
F: Bayley Fritsch, Sam Weideman, Alex Neal-Bullen
Foll: Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Jack Viney
I/C: Mitch Hannan, Christian Petracca, Charlie Spargo, Aaron vandenBerg
Emg: Jay Kennedy Harris, Jayden Hunt, Joel Smith, Tim Smith

In: Mitch Hannan, Jack Viney

Out: Jay Kennedy Harris (omitted) Kent (AC joint)

GEELONG

B: Jake Kolodjashnij, Lachie Henderson, Tom Stewart 
HB: Jed Bews, Harry Taylor, Zach Tuohy 
? Mark Blicavs, Joel Selwood, Cameron Guthrie 
HF: Sam Menegola, Gary Ablett, Tim Kelly 
F: Daniel Menzel, Tom Hawkins, Jordan Murdoch 
Foll: Ryan Abbott, Patrick Dangerfield, Mitch Duncan 
I/C: Jack Henry  Mark O'Connor  Brandan Parfitt  Scott Selwood 
Emg: Lachie Fogarty, Quinton Narkle, Zac Smith, Jackson Thurlow 

No change

The last time the Cats played a “real” game of football rather than a practice match against witches hats was about four weeks ago when they lost to the Hawks at the MCG, the same venue at which they also narrowly went down to the Tigers a week earlier. With no hard match conditioning for more than a month and a poor record at the home of football, the question looms as to whether the club stand up to the pressure of finals football which most participants (and certainly Hawthorn after its qualifying final game v Richmond) will tell you, is more than a notch above that of any home and away game.

On the other hand, the Demons could not have had a better build up to its finals campaign with every game in the past month seeing a build up in pressure cooker football as it contested three vital must-win contests.

In every case, these were promoted as desperate and dangerous struggles against fellow finalists that generally lived up to their billing. The fact that two of those matches were played at the home of football with relatively strong crowd numbers and the other in the hostile environment of a place where the team had never played before, simply added to Melbourne’s cause.

In terms of preparation for the last month in September, the Demons have it all over the Cats and that is why, for their long-suffering players and fans, the team’s first finals appearance since 2006 holds no fears.

To top it all off, the Demons have fared much better than the Cats in team selection with the inclusions of Jack Viney and Mitch Hannan for the injured Dean Kent and omitted small man Jay Kennedy Harris marking a substantial improvement for the team which mauled the Greater Western Sydney Giants in their last start win.

It’s true that Geelong boasts an unchanged line up and has few injury worries - usually a good side for clubs going into a finals campaign - but in this instance, the absence of Rhys Stanley, who was so important in their most recent win over Melbourne in July at GMHBA Stadium, is a major blow to their fortunes. 

That’s because Stanley’s efforts in that match against All-Australian ruckman, Max Gawn when the two matched it blow for blow in the ruck contests and around the ground and even more so in those vital moments in the vital final term when the Demon big man was twice off the ground with the blood rule, were fundamental to Geelong’s dramatic come-from-behind victory. 

The Cats are now left with the inexperienced Ryan Abbot (average 27.3 hit outs per game) and the lightly used in the ruck Mark Blicavs to take on the game’s premier big man who uses such a good proportion of his average of 45.5 hitouts per game to such devastating effect in feeding a damaging midfield that plays strong pressure football and leads the AFL in contested possessions. The result is that I expect the Demon midfield to prevail even against their much vaunted and experienced Geelong counterparts.

This will in turn translate on the scoreboard for the club that has kicked more goals than any other side in the competition this season.

Moreover, their defence is much improved in terms of personnel than was the case at their last meeting when Michael Hibberd was a notable absentee and Sam Frost had yet to hit his current form high. The extra pressure of a stronger defensive unit should ensure that Jack Hawkins won’t embarrass them with anything like a seven goal straight performance and their other forwards will be kept under a tighter rein.

All of which adds up to a Melbourne win by 38 points.

[hells bells 2,023]

Will the teams be released tonight or tomorrow?  

[Copuchas 763]

3 minutes ago, hells bells said:

Will the teams be released tonight or tomorrow?  

only Richmond / Hawthorn tonight

[DubDee 25,806]

TWO DAYS TO GO!!!

CARN THE DEMONS!!

blow them away in the first half. rough them up, go in hard, do whatever you need to, to win

[At the break of Gawn 4,460]

I think we’ll win but I don’t say that with much confidence. You can never take a team too lightly with ultra competitive players such as Selwood, Dangerfield and Ablett.

[daisycutter 29,612]

8 minutes ago, At the break of Gawn said:

I think we’ll win but I don’t say that with much confidence. You can never take a team too lightly with ultra competitive players such as Selwood, Dangerfield and Ablett.

i think all games this week are a bit of a toss-the-coin at this stage

very even comp this year at the top end. any team in the finals can win the flag, but obviously the double chance is a big plus for the top 4

should be best finals series for years

[Redleg 40,889]

First elimination final: Melbourne v Geelong
Field umpires: Ray Chamberlain, Robert Findlay, Jacob Mollison

As I said last sunday when I posted 73. Add up their numbers.

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

Phew, I see Nicholls has been sent to Perth. 

[ManDee 7,134]

10 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Phew, I see Nicholls has been sent to Perth. 

If we all tip in a few dollars we could send him to blighty for September.

[Deemania since 56 6,631]

1 hour ago, At the break of Gawn said:

I think we’ll win but I don’t say that with much confidence. You can never take a team too lightly with ultra competitive players such as Selwood, Dangerfield and Ablett.

Geelong are susceptible. Ego-driven predictions and expectations from their players do create lapses in effort and concentration, and their power players exude far too much confidence and assume 'all will be right' on the night. Prepare thyself, Geelong, for a crash. Your ability to transform a game with one or two bursts of scoring are reflections on days past. The rallying that you performed in the past is not possible weekly, and in the very recent past it was shaky.

Your players are ageing and slowing; you meet a very fit, keen and capable opponent in the Elimination Final - one who has beaten you all over the ground with its youthful exuberance twice this year to achieve in comparative terms 'an upset' looming and large.

If it was not for umpiring standards lapsing in your favour, twice, as a saviour of the finals gate receipts, it would by now be all over; accept it, Geelong, your sun is setting. 'Go Dees!

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,816]

You'd be surprised if the ins/outs aren't:

In - Viney, Hannan

Out - Kent, JFK

Genuine 50/50 game, but if we can keep the scoreboard ticking like we do in all our wins we can win this. Plus most of Ablett, Selwood, Danger, Kelly and Hawkins will need to have average games by their standards.

Not 100% happy with the Viney inclusion considering he'll be under done in a high stakes game, out midfield was purring without him and Kennedy-Harris and Spargo (one of whom will cop a bullet) were improving by the week and will be unlucky to miss.

Is anyone going to be angry if we lose by a few goals and declare it a wasted and failed season? Or are we all going to acknowledge that we're seriously on the right track and a loss in our first final in 12 years is not going to get in our way of achieving serious success over the next few years.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,738]

I suspect that whatever we're paying Jordan Lewis will be worth it on Friday. I'm not referring to his on-field play (although that will be important) but his experience of how to cope with finals football, particularly in the last hour or so before the game starts, should help the coaching staff to calm the nerves of our otherwise inexperienced team.

[McQueen 17,864]

28 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

You'd be surprised if the ins/outs aren't:

In - Viney, Hannan

Out - Kent, JFK

Genuine 50/50 game, but if we can keep the scoreboard ticking like we do in all our wins we can win this. Plus most of Ablett, Selwood, Danger, Kelly and Hawkins will need to have average games by their standards.

Not 100% happy with the Viney inclusion considering he'll be under done in a high stakes game, out midfield was purring without him and Kennedy-Harris and Spargo (one of whom will cop a bullet) were improving by the week and will be unlucky to miss.

Is anyone going to be angry if we lose by a few goals and declare it a wasted and failed season? Or are we all going to acknowledge that we're seriously on the right track and a loss in our first final in 12 years is not going to get in our way of achieving serious success over the next few years.

No doubt if we lose and Viney has little impact then all and sundry will be pointing the finger at that as the main reason.

Personally, I'm 100% comfortable with Viney coming back in. He's an animal that'll will himself on every contest and punish the opposition far more than JKH or Spargo can. I reckon his preparation has been flawless this time around and he'll be a significant factor in the clearance battles even with 6 weeks without game time.

Edited September 5, 2018 by McQueen

[Hellish Inferno 992]

Yep Viney may not be at his best, but even at 50% he's better value than the bottom 5 of our best 22

You never know, he may produce a ripper comeback game, such is his intensity and desire. But it's a big step up from no match day experience in weeks months straight into a final.

Edited September 5, 2018 by TheCurseisBroken

[BenJamin on Deesy St 805]

We owe the Cats. Last two losses down at Kardinia Park (111 and Zach T) reduced my eldest daughter to convulsive fits of despair and snot after the final siren. She used my shoulder and my 1980s hand-knitted scarf (marked with my own tears from 1987) as a hanky each time - it’s still intact and will be worn with pride this Fri night.

Anyway, what a difference a few weeks make. Here she is running out with the boys for the GWS game last week, with all ahead of her and the team. Great photo full of hope, joy and purpose, from article here: http://m.melbournefc.com.au/news/2018-09-04/finals-experience-no-issue-lewis

Go Demons!!!

[hells bells 2,023]

42 minutes ago, McQueen said:

Personally, I'm 100% comfortable with Viney coming back in. He's an animal that'll will himself on every contest and punish the opposition far more than JKH or Spargo can. I reckon his preparation has been flawless this time around and he'll be a significant factor in the clearance battles even with 6 weeks without game time.

Even slightly underdone Viney has something that very few have in the AFL.

Presence and a Fear Factor he is a huge addition to the side.

[brendan 3,434]

Is it too much to ask for the game to be over at half time with a healthy lead, can’t wait for this just need to plan my trip will try and get in early will be people everywhere 

[Jibroni 5,002]

God I hope Viney plays well, I imagine he plays a half forward / rotate midfield role due to lack of gametime. 

Two more sleeps now, cant wait!

[dl4e 5,851]

Again I am going to be interested in the team list. Viney and Hannan in with Kent and 1 other out. If Hannan isn't picked then I will be scratching myself silly. If Tyson is picked to play then it has to be one of jkh or spargo. Really don't know which one.

[Clintosaurus 7,843]

33 minutes ago, brendan said:

Is it too much to ask for the game to be over at half time with a healthy lead, can’t wait for this just need to plan my trip will try and get in early will be people everywhere 

Something like the 2000 Prelim would do.

[Brownie 5,980]

1 hour ago, Ben E said:

We owe the Cats. Last two losses down at Kardinia Park (111 and Zach T) reduced my eldest daughter to convulsive fits of despair and snot after the final siren. She used my shoulder and my 1980s hand-knitted scarf (marked with my own tears from 1987) as a hanky each time - it’s still intact and will be worn with pride this Fri night.

Anyway, what a difference a few weeks make. Here she is running out with the boys for the GWS game last week, with all ahead of her and the team. Great photo full of hope, joy and purpose, from article here: http://m.melbournefc.com.au/news/2018-09-04/finals-experience-no-issue-lewis

Go Demons!!!

Fantastic pic and memory @Ben E

Hope there's more to come Friday night.

I hope Viney rips some limbs off Selwood and we smash em

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

1 hour ago, TheCurseisBroken said:

Yep Viney may not be at his best, but even at 50% he's better value than the bottom 5 of our best 22

You never know, he may produce a ripper comeback game, such is his intensity and desire. But it's a big step up from no match day experience in weeks months straight into a final.

It's never the first game back that's the issue, it's the recovery between the first and second and the fatigue for the second that's the problem for players...

[Spirit of '87 333]

1 hour ago, Danelska said:

It's never the first game back that's the issue, it's the recovery between the first and second and the fatigue for the second that's the problem for players...

That will be a good problem - means that Melbourne will have won the first game, against Geelong, and he may have contributed to that win, and will be in a position to deal with that fatigue problem in his second game that you’ve raised  

[samcantstandya 1,045]

2 hours ago, dl4e said:

Again I am going to be interested in the team list. Viney and Hannan in with Kent and 1 other out. If Hannan isn't picked then I will be scratching myself silly. If Tyson is picked to play then it has to be one of jkh or spargo. Really don't know which one.

Prefer Spargo for his footy smarts

[bringbackthebiff 654]

From an article last year when the Tiges beat the Cats in the qualifying final “mauling Geelong with an unrelenting brand of pressure that carried them to a 51-point win”. 

That’s the template on how you beat the Cats.

Edited September 5, 2018 by bringbackthebiff