Why does one horrible quarter always happen (and kill us)?

[titan_uranus 24,631]

I read a really interesting stat today about our 2017 season that I hadn't seen before.

We lost a quarter by 30+ points last year 8 times. The only sides to lose more than 8 by 30+ points or more were Gold Coast and Brisbane (Fremantle also lost 8).

We've had our first for the year already, losing the second quarter today by 31.

By comparison, Sydney hasn't lost a quarter by that much for two years.

Good sides don't get blown out of the water in a quarter like we do. It cost us games last year and it's already cost us a game this year.

So, what is the cause(s)?

We won the other 3 quarters by 27 points combined, so it can't simply be that we weren't capable of going with them. And because we were capable of taking to them, and at times convincingly outplaying them, I struggle to believe it's the gameplan, either. If it was, we'd be losing more quarters and doing worse for longer periods.

This was Round 1, and they were a player down on the bench, so heaven help us if it's a fitness thing. We're also another year older and more experienced, so is it fair to put it down to "youth" or "inexperience" any longer?

Is it coaching? Or is it the players (who don't seem to know how to change things until the quarter ends and they get to reset and speak with the coaches)? Is it as simple as being "between the ears" (whatever that means)?

 

[Wiseblood 24,637]

It's a good question titan, one we all wish we wouldn't have to still be asking of this team.

To me, we lack a 'Plan B'.  When the tide is turning against us, it seems as though we just stick to our guns and go about our business without acknowledging the fact that the opposition have their tails up and we need to stop that momentum.

When the Cats got a run on in the second, what did we do to stop it?  Did the gameplan change?  Did we move a few players around, even send one back loose to help stem the tide?  Did we look to slow the game down at all?  I don't think we did any of that and it hurt us.

I like the fact that the team wants to back it's own game plan in to win a game of footy, but it's not going to work in a game 100% of the time.  Clubs will kick a few and we need to learn to keep it to that - just a few.  I think Goodwin and the coaching staff need to come up with something that the leaders can put in place quickly to ensure quarters like today don't happen.

It may not be that simple though as it's a problem we've had for a while.  

[jnrmac 19,905]

It was the same in the 1st qtr. They waltzed into the fwd 50. 9 entries for 8 shots at goal.

The same in the 2nd only we didn't kick goals to counteract it..

 

Edited March 25, 2018 by jnrmac

[Lucifers Hero 38,985]

It is primarily coaching: 

• As  Wiseblood says we should have a Plan B. (If we do have a Plan B it wasn't activated today).
• Plan B should be as practiced and trained for as is Plan A.
• The coach has runners to send out to trigger Plan B (if we have one)
• The coach can move players to impact the momentum.

And to some extent it is lack of on-field leaders.  It has been a perennial problem and today showed it still is.  It is hard to know whether they don't have the footy smarts to recognise the momentum shift, altho it should be obvious after 3/4 unanswered goals; they don't know what to do or they are not empowered by the coach to do what is required to stem momentum.  All are concerning.

So when there is a leadership vacuum on and off the field we have 7 goals kicked against us and the game is lost.

[titan_uranus 24,631]

14 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

It was the same in the 1st qtr. They waltzed into the fwd 50. 9 entries for 8 shots at goal.

The same in the 2nd only we didn't kick goals to counteract it..

Sure, we had similar problems with forward pressure etc. in the first quarter which gave them too many easy inside 50s, but when we're outscoring them it doesn't matter anywhere nearly as much - it's much easier to justify.

[praha 11,124]

12 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

It is primarily coaching: 

• As  Wiseblood says we should have a Plan B. (If we do have a Plan B it wasn't activated today).
• Plan B should be as practiced and trained for as is Plan A.
• The coach has runners to send out to trigger Plan B (if we have one)
• The coach can move players to impact the momentum.

And to some extent it is lack of on-field leaders.  It has been a perennial problem and today showed it still is.  It is hard to know whether they don't have the footy smarts to recognise the momentum shift, altho it should be obvious after 3/4 unanswered goals; they don't know what to do or they are not empowered by the coach to do what is required to stem momentum.  All are concerning.

So when there is a leadership vacuum on and off the field we have 7 goals kicked against us and the game is lost.

i agree mostly but the problem is that the issue persisted in the Roos years as well. Too long to react. we didn't get quite blown out in quarters as often but teams would smash us in certain areas and once we finally changed things up it was too late.

I think it's a combination of players and coaches. on field leadership needs to take the game by the neck and direct changes and pace.

coaches need to take more spontaneous risks during games to stem the flow.

I don't think today was a coaching issue. two way running in the first half was rare. they had 83% inside 50 scoring efficiency. what could goodwin have done? we had an extra player back. they were going in fast and direct with ease through the middle.

[DeeSpencer 24,783]

8 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

It is primarily coaching: 

• As  Wiseblood says we should have a Plan B. (If we do have a Plan B it wasn't activated today).
• Plan B should be as practiced and trained for as is Plan A.
• The coach has runners to send out to trigger Plan B (if we have one)
• The coach can move players to impact the momentum.

And to some extent it is lack of on-field leaders.  It has been a perennial problem and today showed it still is.  It is hard to know whether they don't have the footy smarts to recognise the momentum shift, altho it should be obvious after 3/4 unanswered goals; they don't know what to do or they are not empowered by the coach to do what is required to stem momentum.  All are concerning.

So when there is a leadership vacuum on and off the field we have 7 goals kicked against us and the game is lost.

It's not on the coaches, we dropped Lewis back behind the ball late in the 2nd quarter and kept him there until the end of the game. 

Up until that stage it was somewhat a shootout and the expectation from the coaches was surely to keep to the plan and decrease the 2 goal lead. Unfortunately we let that lead blow out to 4 goals right before half time by which time I believe the 7th defender was already in place.

Plan B - playing with 7 defenders - worked well and got us right back in a position to win with the Gawn kick.

The problem with switching from an attacking game plan to lock down defensive mode is you then have be prepared to live with the ball in your back half and play slower ball moving and controlled play with lots of off the ball running and covering. It requires everyone on the same page and that's much more easily achieved during a break in play.

I don't think it was just the one bad quarter that killed us today. It was the inability to defend for the entire first half - and all over the ground as well. Forwards couldn't lay a tackle, midfielders couldn't keep up and backs were all out of shape. The first quarter defending was just as bad but I understand why the coaches didn't want to make changes when they were ahead and could've easily been further ahead given our own chances.

[dl4e 5,850]

I am sorry but the whole drama gets down to mental softness. All teams lose 5 to 10 mins in a quarter here and there but we take the whole 1/2 hour and that is every week. If I knew the cure to the ills I would telepath it to the MFC.

[Wiseblood 24,637]

1 minute ago, dl4e said:

I am sorry but the whole drama gets down to mental softness. All teams lose 5 to 10 mins in a quarter here and there but we take the whole 1/2 hour and that is every week. If I knew the cure to the ills I would telepath it to the MFC.

That's far too simplistic.  If we were that mentally soft then we aren't working out way back into the match and potentially winning it.  We're letting them kick on and we lose by 10 goals.  That doesn't happen.

 

[Lucifers Hero 38,985]

DeeSpencer, Surely, there has to be more to Plan B than just dropping an extra person in defence.

And I'm not so sure that Plan was really successful.  Goodwin said in his press conf they rebounded 49 of our 64 inside 50's.  That is the price paid for that 7 th defender - its harder to lock the ball in our forward 50 and harder for our midfielders to defend as they are forward and can't go back fast enough to stop them waltzing the ball thru the middle. 

I'm not looking to lay blame - t_u raised a valid question and I was posing reasons.  However, I do think it is a comb of coaching and on-field leadership.  Whatever the cause of our one quarter fade outs someone needs to find a way to end it.

Edited March 25, 2018 by Lucifer's Hero

[dl4e 5,850]

12 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

That's far too simplistic.  If we were that mentally soft then we aren't working out way back into the match and potentially winning it.  We're letting them kick on and we lose by 10 goals.  That doesn't happen.

 

Yes it is simple and can be remedied.

[Lord Travis 10,492]

We won the 4th most quarters of any team in 2017. Those one quarter lapses are the only thing stopping us from being a top 4 side and genuine contender.

I believe it comes down to leadership. If 3 goals in a row are scored against us, the leaders automatically drop players behind the ball and stem the bleeding for a 5-10 minute period. Once we've stabilised and withstood their onslaught, we reload without the damage effecting us on the scoreboard. It's not rocket science, yet we continue to allow teams to pile on goals when we could just clog the space and shut the game down to kill their momentum. 

[MurDoc516 1,487]

We won 3 out of 4 quarters today. Mental softness isn't a thing, it's a buzzword media pundits can throw out so they don't have to look at stats and trends to figure out the real reasons. I don't care what anyone says, no one can play at the speed we do for the full game. People look at the Doggies and Tigers with rose tinted glasses and forget all the shockers they had. Tigers lost 4 games in a row by a kick and got called every name under the sun by the media pundits. Mentally soft tigers won the flag because they believed in the plan and had the legs to do it in september. Why didn't the team who hadn't won a finals game in years and the team that also lost 4 games in a row by a kick collapse in the finals against the other top teams of the comp? Because it's a myth. 

I'm gutted after that defeat, but it was clear our skills let us down today. We fatigued and the game became a lot more slower and congested. The cats didn't even move the ball that much better and basically held on for the last half. Tired players don't make the correct decisions and while we screamed at them to lower their eyes they just slammed it on the boot because they were cooked. Blame the coaches and fitness staff for that. We collapsed at the end of last season because we didn't have the legs and if we had made it into the finals i fear what Port would have done to us.

 

How do we change it? Find match winners who can stand up against the tide and kick a couple goals to keep us within reach. Petracca did it against the pies on Queens Birthday, hell Petracca did it today as well. Lever had a shocking first half but i think came into his own in the last half. The Cats kick two goals in the last half, yes they missed some easy ones (so did we) but i think Lever, Hunt and Hibberd grew into the game took control. These players are only going to get better with more games. 

[Rob Mac...... 635]

6 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

It is primarily coaching: 

• As  Wiseblood says we should have a Plan B. (If we do have a Plan B it wasn't activated today).
• Plan B should be as practiced and trained for as is Plan A.
• The coach has runners to send out to trigger Plan B (if we have one)
• The coach can move players to impact the momentum.

And to some extent it is lack of on-field leaders.  It has been a perennial problem and today showed it still is.  It is hard to know whether they don't have the footy smarts to recognise the momentum shift, altho it should be obvious after 3/4 unanswered goals; they don't know what to do or they are not empowered by the coach to do what is required to stem momentum.  All are concerning.

So when there is a leadership vacuum on and off the field we have 7 goals kicked against us and the game is lost.

Hi Lucifers.   Yes we normally fade at some stage, if not we’re exhausted and lose the following week. 

Perhaps it’s unreasonable to expect out attacking game style to be executed hell- for- leather for 100 minutes without fatigue?

If so then wouldn’t it work, if within any quarter, coaching or leadership could predict the pendulum swinging or predict or quickly identify fatigue starting and SIGNAL our entire team just to go into possession football for a few minutes; keepings off to frustrate and exhaust the opposition, preventing their run- on while we recharge for our next onslaught?

It would stop them killing us in those minutes; keep us in control and be a mandatory part “b” of our overall game plan and strategy.

It should happen BEFORE we’re too tired to execute it.  A different signal could cue us back to attack mode.  Players could expect and look for those signals.

Some ways to switch gears during a quarter when we’re under the pump. 

[Pates 9,625]

I will preface this by saying I haven't had the chance to see the first half (not sure I have the stomach to watch it to be honest). Primarily what seemed happen last year when it happened was that we would lose focus and composure, we would stop running to the correct areas and stop attacking the game. I feel this is more down to attitude and mental fortitude than coaching (though it plays a big part as well).

This has to stop or at least we have to find ways to mitigate the oppositions run and momentum. Even if they are on top we need to find a way to halt them and get the game back on our terms. It's incredibly disappointing it has already cost us a game this year. I also noticed when I was keeping an eye on the score we also conceded a very late goal in the second quarter, we prevent them from kicking that goal and we win. The late goals always seem to hurt us the most.  

[Lucifers Hero 38,985]

5 hours ago, Rob Mac...... said:

Hi Lucifers.   Yes we normally fade at some stage, if not we’re exhausted and lose the following week. 

Perhaps it’s unreasonable to expect out attacking game style to be executed hell- for- leather for 100 minutes without fatigue?

If so then wouldn’t it work, if within any quarter, coaching or leadership could predict the pendulum swinging or predict or quickly identify fatigue starting and SIGNAL our entire team just to go into possession football for a few minutes; keepings off to frustrate and exhaust the opposition, preventing their run- on while we recharge for our next onslaught?

It would stop them killing us in those minutes; keep us in control and be a mandatory part “b” of our overall game plan and strategy.

It should happen BEFORE we’re too tired to execute it.  A different signal could cue us back to attack mode.  Players could expect and look for those signals.

Some ways to switch gears during a quarter when we’re under the pump. 

Hey Rob,  Yes, I think it would work if the momentum was 'predicted' (controlled) and built into the game plan (or a momentum swing noticed early enough) and the team have a 'signal' from on field leaders or the runner to go into a defensive mode of some sort.  Then a 'signal' to revert back when we have stabilised the game or ready to go again. 

You mention 'go into possession football' which is exactly what Hawthorn do to slow/control the game.  Sydney go full-on 'man on man' and wear opp like a glove for a while to stop them getting clean possession.  Some teams flood the backline.  Tag their ball winners.  I'm sure there are lots of other things in a coach's repertoire. 

I guess the 'signals' and tactics are what a Plan B contains. 

We are very, very good at regrouping after quarter breaks but as we all know by then the game is all but gone.  I am at a loss to work out why we can't 'regroup' during a quarter or why 18-22 players lose concentration simultaneously...

Hopefully, the coaches and leaders are working on what the issues are, tactics and solutions.

Edited March 25, 2018 by Lucifer's Hero

[Clintosaurus 7,565]

Possession football for a few minutes would stop it. Seems though no-one on our team is able to work out when it is required. I can remember years ago players like Hodge etc would hold the ball up when they got possession to indicate to their teammates that the game was going to be slowed down for a few. St Kilda also did it a lot.

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

12 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

DeeSpencer, Surely, there has to be more to Plan B than just dropping an extra person in defence.

It should be getting an extra player around the ball and then locking it in the forward line.

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

13 minutes ago, Clintosaurus said:

Possession football for a few minutes would stop it. Seems though no-one on our team is able to work out when it is required. I can remember years ago players like Hodge etc would hold the ball up when they got possession to indicate to their teammates that the game was going to be slowed down for a few. St Kilda also did it a lot.

Possession football is fine, so long as it isn't just kick backwards and sideways until you run out of room.

It actually requires a lot of running to make options and to clear space for teammates to run into.

[Rob Mac...... 635]

Thats what I’m talking about Clint. 

I agree with you Lucifers, except i think it can be predicted or noticed when we’re fading a bit.

EG. After our high energy Q1 yesterday i expected us to slow up and we did, but foolishly nothing was done about it until half time when it was too late!!!   

We need to achnowledge that the pendulum swings in a game and have plans prepared to use that to advantage and mitigate damage when we’re having some poor minutes.  

[Dr. Gonzo 23,723]

Champion Data did a piece on this stat (quarters lost by 30+) in the Prospectus this year. Brief summary as TU has written - good sides don't lose quarters by that much. When we do it costs us games because we invariably win the other 3 quarters.

[JV7 2,348]

14 hours ago, Wiseblood said:

It's a good question titan, one we all wish we wouldn't have to still be asking of this team.

To me, we lack a 'Plan B'.  When the tide is turning against us, it seems as though we just stick to our guns and go about our business without acknowledging the fact that the opposition have their tails up and we need to stop that momentum.

When the Cats got a run on in the second, what did we do to stop it?  Did the gameplan change?  Did we move a few players around, even send one back loose to help stem the tide?  Did we look to slow the game down at all?  I don't think we did any of that and it hurt us.

I like the fact that the team wants to back it's own game plan in to win a game of footy, but it's not going to work in a game 100% of the time.  Clubs will kick a few and we need to learn to keep it to that - just a few.  I think Goodwin and the coaching staff need to come up with something that the leaders can put in place quickly to ensure quarters like today don't happen.

It may not be that simple though as it's a problem we've had for a while.  

Your 100% spot on WB. When sides get a run on we can not stop it.. We never seem to be able to posses the footy, chip it round a bit & slow the game down. Geelong did it to us multiple times yesterday, I don't know what it is & why we can't do it but all last year I had noticed it & it happend again yesterday. Our foot skills aren't great which may be the reason we can't play "keepings off" to stem the tide

[Diamond_Jim 12,359]

The second quarter was worrying but lets remember they kicked 5:3 in the first quarter as well.

Our system (which is much bigger than our defence ) leaks goals. In the second half we tightened up but the Cat's inaccuracy did hide that we could have been easily scored against.

If we are going to play this game plan it is relatively clear that we need to score heavily to win. That probably means around 120 points. Do we have the forward structure to regularly kick 18 goals 12 or thereabouts?

If not we need to restructure our defensive system.

[Wiseblood 24,637]

14 minutes ago, JV7 said:

Your 100% spot on WB. When sides get a run on we can not stop it.. We never seem to be able to posses the footy, chip it round a bit & slow the game down. Geelong did it to us multiple times yesterday, I don't know what it is & why we can't do it but all last year I had noticed it & it happend again yesterday. Our foot skills aren't great which may be the reason we can't play "keepings off" to stem the tide

I agree with this, and I think @Clint Bizkit also hit the nail on the head re: being able to lock the ball in our forward line as well.  They were able to run the ball out for too easily yesterday, so when we did get the footy in our hands and get it forward they were able to sling shot it out with relative ease.  This needs to be worked on in a big way, especially when the momentum is out of our hands a little.

[Dante 2,704]

14 hours ago, jnrmac said:

It was the same in the 1st qtr. They waltzed into the fwd 50. 9 entries for 8 shots at goal.

The same in the 2nd only we didn't kick goals to counteract it..

 

That's the problem, they waltzed in, under no pressure, they are a skilled side and our game plan just doesn't stand up to that sort of play, our players lack skill, we are hard at the ball but not skillful enough when we get it. They were organised, we were not.

In no particular order we have, Tyson, Wagner, Harmes, Hunt, Bugg, Maynard, Jones, Pederson who all put in and are hard at it, but just lack the skill and finesse to compete with the better sides, better players. We have too many players on the list that lack composure.

If I was a Cats supporter, I would have loved the way they passed the ball around with precision and how they drew 2 or 3 of our players in to the tackle and then hand passed the ball to a free player who's man had left him.