Guide to the Draft

[Freddy Fuschia 764]

There's an interesting guide to the draft in The Age that looks at where each club's list is at and what their needs are in the draft: 2017 Club by Club Guide

MELBOURNE

Draft picks: 29, 31, 36, 47

DEPTH CHART

KEY DEFENDERS: Jake Lever, Oscar McDonald, Sam Frost

SMALL/MEDIUM DEFENDERS: Michael Hibberd, Neville Jetta, Jayden Hunt, Christian Salem, Joel Smith, Josh Wagner, Pat McKenna

MIDFIELDERS: Clayton Oliver, Jack Viney, Nathan Jones, Dom Tyson, Jordan Lewis, Bernie Vince, Angus Brayshaw, Alex Neal-Bullen, Aaron Vandenberg, Harley Balic, Billy Stretch, Tom Bugg, Corey Maynard

KEY FORWARDS: Jesse Hogan, Tom McDonald, Sam Weideman, Cam Pedersen, Tim Smith, Declan Keilty

SMALL/MEDIUM FORWARDS: Christian Petracca, Jeff Garlett, Mitch Hannan, Jake Melksham, Dean Kent, James Harmes, Jay Kennedy-Harris, Dion Johnstone

RUCKS: Max Gawn, Mitch King, Lachlan Filipovic

Melbourne have brought in most of their trade targets in recent seasons and still kept a reasonable draft hand, even though many of their fans had concerns about giving up former No. 1 pick Jack Watts for selection 31. The Dees have done the hard yards at the draft in recent seasons and have nailed enough picks in the last few years to ensure they have a very impressive young core, with few clear weaknesses. To nitpick, most of their best midfielders are primarily inside bulls, so while they have some good movers off half-back they could probably do with some more run through the midfield. Looking at who might be available when the Demons have a glut of picks from 29 to 36, Jack Petruccelle's pace could well be an option, while Ryley Stoddart and Zac Bailey are expected to fall in the second or third round. The Demons have also been linked to Oskar Baker, formerly of the Brisbane Lions' academy, another known for dash. The delisting of Jake Spencer leaves them a little short in the ruck, even though Tom McDonald and Cam Pedersen did decent jobs during the year with Max Gawn injured. It wouldn't  be a surprise if Melbourne plucked a mature-age rookie ruck to provide further cover.

[Port Demons 131]

I like Ryley Stoddart game ....leftie who plays like a Hunt/Hibbard blend

Oskar Baker has great pace and looks like a natural confident footballer who takes the game on. 

[Mach5 4,768]

I get a bit of a Fyfe feel from Zac Bailey.

He won't be available for us.

[Moonshadow 17,678]

3 hours ago, Mach5 said:

I get a bit of a Fyfe feel from Zac Bailey.

He won't be available for us.

FWIW impressive highlights package 

 

[FarNorthernD 5,861]

2 hours ago, Moonshadow said:

FWIW impressive highlights package 

 

Oh my. I know highlights package and all but that kid has it doesn’t he.

Will be stoked if he falls to us. Actually reminded me a bit of Darcy Parish.

[Watts Jurrah Dunn? 735]

3 hours ago, Moonshadow said:

FWIW impressive highlights package 

 

I reckon he's more Rory Sloane than Rory Sloane.

[DeeSpencer 26,266]

I don't really see it with Bailey's highlight package. I like the fast hands, but the contested ball is very kiddies contested ball and he's got a lot of space to run from the stoppages. Kicking goes hot and cold as well. No idea what people are seeing to compare him to Fyfe and Sloane. 180cm with a nice burst of speed - he reminds me of a Shuey or Treloar and would give our midfield something different.The Parish comparison sounds about right. I'd be happy with him at pick 29 but I think he's rightfully not in the top 15 contention.

[Barney Rubble 1,576]

He has very good peripheral vision. He is a natural footballer, good mover and places his kicks well.

Although we don't see his clangers in highlight reels

[pineapple dee 2,892]

1 hour ago, Barney Rubble said:

He has very good peripheral vision. He is a natural footballer, good mover and places his kicks well.

Although we don't see his clangers in highlight reels

That's what they said about me when I was in the under 12s

[RalphiusMaximus 6,102]

So from that, he has decent pace, good foot skills and can win his own ball.  Sounds like a good prospect to me. 

[Lucifers Hero 40,509]

'The Roar' guide to the draft.  http://www.theroar.com.au/2017/11/22/club-club-guide-2017-afl-draft/

For the Demons: 

"The Dees come in late, but then have three picks in a fairly short space of time, so they’re in a good position to clean up any players who slip through later than expected.

Sam Hayes could be a great apprentice ruckman to Max Gawn for a few years, hence be selected without any need to rush his development.

A small forward would have to appeal too and there’s bound to be one of some quality available at their picks here.

Jack Petrucelle is every chance to be available in this range as well and the Demons could do a lot worse than punting on his raw speed. He and Jayden Hunt tearing it up off halfback would be scary-fun to watch".

Its a good analysis of needs and likely availability.  Fully concur with the last sentence.  A very tantalising prospect!

Edited November 21, 2017 by Lucifer's Hero

[old55 23,833]

20 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

'The Roar' guide to the draft.  http://www.theroar.com.au/2017/11/22/club-club-guide-2017-afl-draft/

For the Demons: 

"The Dees come in late, but then have three picks in a fairly short space of time, so they’re in a good position to clean up any players who slip through later than expected.

Sam Hayes could be a great apprentice ruckman to Max Gawn for a few years, hence be selected without any need to rush his development.

A small forward would have to appeal too and there’s bound to be one of some quality available at their picks here.

Jack Petrucelle is every chance to be available in this range as well and the Demons could do a lot worse than punting on his raw speed. He and Jayden Hunt tearing it up off halfback would be scary-fun to watch".

Its a good analysis of needs and likely availability.  Fully concur with the last sentence.  A very tantalising prospect!

I hope we go for some x-factor like Petrucelle and Fritsch.

A Genuine small forward. 

No more HBF.  No more project rucks.

[Axis of Bob 11,898]

Just from the highlights, I like the idea of Brent Daniels. Very small, but seems to play the game with a lot of pace and wind his own ball. There are spots open in our side for fast and competitive smalls who can create opportunities.

But I know nothing about the draftees, I just thought I'd put something out there before the draft so that I could pretend that I was smart if it worked.

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

2 hours ago, Fifty-5 said:

I hope we go for some x-factor like Petrucelle and Fritsch.

A Genuine small forward. 

No more HBF.  No more project rucks.

One thing that I think posters need to think about when it comes to Petruccelle is Jayden Hunt.

The similarities are all there and Petruccelle’s kicking is no worse than Jayden Hunt's. All he needs is guidance on lowering his eyes like Jayden is learning to do.

Having said that, I wouldn’t play him at half-back because I do value kicking skills from that area of the ground. But he’d be a very dangerous small forward imo and would go beautifully alongside Garlett as a small pressure forward who could eventually pinch-hit through the middle.

His aerial ability, speed and agility, goal sense and pressure would really add to our forward group. It’s clear an ability to lock the ball inside 50 or at least maintain huge pressure on the opposition when they gain possession in their defensive half gives you a huge advantage. Richmond won a grand final off the back of it this year.

Petruccelle is the kind of player who like Hunt, would benefit more than most in an AFL environment given his small body of work to date but huge upside/potential.

 

Edited November 22, 2017 by stevethemanjordan

[Mach5 4,768]

I like Jason Taylor's thinking based on the article on the website today (or at least what I think he's thinking) - multiple clubs with multiple picks before us means they are more likely to select based on needs (lack of pace, key defenders, developing ruckmen, etc.) allowing serious talent to slip through to us. 

[hardtack 10,851]

I had a brief chat with Mitch Hannan at Monday's training session and asked if he thought Fritsch was a chance... he seemed to think they must be looking at him and that he would love to play one flank with Fritsch on the other.  Personally, I get the feeling we will grab Fritsch with pick 31 and Bailey with 29... no idea about the others.

[rolling fog 1,208]

2 hours ago, hardtack said:

I had a brief chat with Mitch Hannan at Monday's training session and asked if he thought Fritsch was a chance... he seemed to think they must be looking at him and that he would love to play one flank with Fritsch on the other.  Personally, I get the feeling we will grab Fritsch with pick 31 and Bailey with 29... no idea about the others.

I heard from an ex-recruiter this afternoon that the Pies are dead keen on Fritsch, most likely in the second round, and have been speaking to him over the last couple of months. However, with their Pick 38 I just can't see it happening. We'll pick him up in the 30's for mine.

[puntkick 325]

They love Melbourne stars almost as much as we used to love Collingwood stars

Saw on tv yesterday an interview with Howie about what he's gotta do in 2018 to get back mark of the year FFS !

[DeeSpencer 26,266]

5 hours ago, Mach5 said:

I like Jason Taylor's thinking based on the article on the website today (or at least what I think he's thinking) - multiple clubs with multiple picks before us means they are more likely to select based on needs (lack of pace, key defenders, developing ruckmen, etc.) allowing serious talent to slip through to us. 

Yeah I think he was hinting that it could go very well if those clubs take the players we don't want or it could go less well if they do. Depends a bit on how their draft boards match up with ours. Richmond have historically favoured pace and the Eagles need a lot of it too so that makes me nervous given I'd prefer if some of the speedsters are available. But  you're right, there's other teams who might look at the talls.

[Skuit 10,031]

18 hours ago, stevethemanjordan said:

Having said that, I wouldn’t play him at half-back because I do value kicking skills from that area of the ground. But he’d be a very dangerous small forward imo and would go beautifully alongside Garlett as a small pressure forward who could eventually pinch-hit through the middle

Ditto my thoughts as to the suggestion of half-back. Up front, but more in my mind as a partner for Petracca. It's evident that CP5 already makes the opposition tense and he receives a lot of close-checking. A second player of that nature would be fantastic and cause all sorts of match-up problems for a modern defence. 

[binman 44,518]

Interesting comments about the benefits if having multiple picks around the 30 mark. I wonder if this was perhaps a factor in the deciaion to trade watts ie we got pick 31 for him

[Lucifers Hero 40,509]

52 minutes ago, binman said:

Interesting comments about the benefits if having multiple picks around the 30 mark. I wonder if this was perhaps a factor in the deciaion to trade watts ie we got pick 31 for him

I doubt it - a lot of pick trades (2017 and 2018) happened in the latter part of trade week so no one knew where the cards would fall.  To me it looked like: get the trades done and then play the hand we end up with the draft. 

On the multiple picks:  Geelong and West Coast also have 3 picks between 20 and 40.  Richmond has 2 (20 and 25) and if someone bids early for Naish those picks are off the table.  (I read somewhere that Richmond has been aggressive bidding for Academy or F/S players in recent times so there might be some 'payback' and force them to go early on Naish).

WC have a strategy on which players they want as they gave up their 1st round pick to get a handful of good 2nd round picks.  Fair chance they and Geelong will use some picks for 'need'.  So some very good players may unexpectedly slide. 

Would be very happy if we got Sam Hayes (the best ruckman in the draft; genuine ruckman, not a 'project' player - touted as top 20 so could go high up the draft if a club is prepared to spend that for him) and Oskar Baker.

Edited November 22, 2017 by Lucifer's Hero

[FarNorthernD 5,861]

Tomorrow will be draft number 34. Here are games averages for various draft picks. 

Picks 20-28 Ave games played = 58.3

Picks 29-37 Ave games played = 59.5 (Melb picks 29, 31, 36)

Picks 38-46 Ave games played = 53.7 (Melb pick 46)

Effectively we could have picks 20, 21, 22 and 23 (ave games 56). Statistically at least there seems to be bit of a lucky dip after the first round. Given that we now have a recruiting team who know what they are doing you would we should end up with at least a couple of very handy players.

Get excited about tomorrow!!

 

PS. Favourite stat is pick 53 that gave us both Tom and Oscar McDonald  (whose combined jumper numbers equals 53) averages ............... wait for it ............. 53 games. 

[old55 23,833]

5 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Would be very happy if we got Sam Hayes (the best ruckman in the draft; genuine ruckman, not a 'project' player - touted as top 20 so could go high up the draft if a club is prepared to spend that for him) and Oskar Baker.

I don't know anything about Sam Hayes (or any other prospects) but I'll be aghast if we take an 18yo ruckman.  We've got King and Filipovic and it will be a struggle to play and develop both of them at Casey - there is no Development League team.  With TMac and Pedersen's 2017 efforts when Gawn was injured, and with Keilty who can pinch hit if required, I'll be disappointed if we take a ruckman full-stop.

Edited November 23, 2017 by Fifty-5

[Mach5 4,768]

1 hour ago, Fifty-5 said:

I don't know anything about Sam Hayes (or any other prospects) but I'll be aghast if we take an 18yo ruckman.  We've got King and Filipovic and it will be a struggle to play and develop both of them at Casey - there is no Development League team.  With TMac and Pedersen's 2017 efforts when Gawn was injured, and with Keilty who can pinch hit if required, I'll be disappointed if we take a ruckman full-stop.

It's a good point. Without a development league, clubs will likely carry less developing ruckmen, as you can't really develop them if they aren't playing. We might find it reaches a stage where clubs have only one developing & pick up ready-mades out of VFL/SANFL/WAFL when needed. 1 on, 1 off. Might get a bit more cutthroat and the ruck craft may suffer. Good for us, because it may aide Gawn's dominance.