2018 - Minimum 16 wins EXPECTED

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

Earlier this year I said that this was going to be the most even season in recent memory, this was correct.

Next year will be even more even, therefore it will be hard to say we need to win a certain number of games because I'm not convinced that we will see this continual growth in the number of wins.  Like this year it will come down to few results either way.

Edited August 29, 2017 by Clint Bizkit

[dl4e 5,851]

I was 9 months old when we won ur last flag. I have seen us in finals but it is a flag for me that matters not just making space up on the finals list. I don't care how many games it takes to win a premiership I just want to see one.

[H_T 3,049]

3 minutes ago, dl4e said:

I was 9 months old when we won ur last flag. I have seen us in finals but it is a flag for me that matters not just making space up on the finals list. I don't care how many games it takes to win a premiership I just want to see one.

If you want to see a Premiership, more than likely a top 4 finish will help. Therefore 16+ wins. I think you do care.

[P-man 13,367]

Finals or bust for sure. No grey area next season.

I know people won't like hearing it, but it is still the third youngest squad in the league. The two that were younger than us were fighting to avoid the wooden spoon in Round 23. Depth almost always comes into play so the age of the entire squad is relevant.

Whilst it is four years into this rebuild they haven't all been there for the entire four years. Oliver in his second year. Petracca essentially in his second year. Brayshaw in his third year after lengthy concussion interruptions. Hogan still a youngish player with numerous setbacks. Lewis and Hibberd brand new to the system.

I'm not wanting to make excuses but these things need to be noted when talking about where we are at and where we should be at. There is no excuse for how they finished the season, but it's worth nothing there is a lot of scope for improvement.

We will be extracting the last drops out of Vince and Lewis next season as best 22 players. Pending on who we replace them with, there will be a gap in experience left in their wake. Their time is now.

I'm happy setting 16 wins as a pass. Even if I think it probably won't be reached. They must aim high and they must let 2017 be a lesson that is never repeated. When everything is on the line, play like it is.

 

[What 18,810]

2018 will be even harder.

The bottom 4 this year were not all that bad. Brisbane were competitive for the most part.  Perhaps the most competitive wooden spooner for some time.

The AFL will be doing whatever it takes to make Gold Coast a finals team.

Theres a good chance one of the Vic teams will land Josh Kelly too.  

 

[beelzebub 23,390]

1 minute ago, Petraccattack said:

2018 will be even harder.

The bottom 4 this year were not all that bad. Brisbane were competitive for the most part.  Perhaps the most competitive wooden spooner for some time.

The AFL will be doing whatever it takes to make Gold Coast a finals team.

Theres a good chance one of the Vic teams will land Josh Kelly too.  

 

shhhhh !!!! we're depressed enough already !! 

[Ted Lasso 19,580]

I honestly think the players thought there was little chance west coast could knock off the crows ( as I did as well) and that acted as a safety net in their minds and they didn't bring the effort needed early. 

I agree though. My expectations are finals and pushing for top 4. If we aren't in the conversation for top 4 going into the final two rounds it's probably a failed season based on our talent and the likely addition of jake lever. 

I think injuries probably cost us 2-3 wins this year and mental weakness probably the same again. We were only genuinely beaten a handful of times which is a positive. 

Min 2018 we should have no fear of any team at all. 

 

[John Crow Batty 8,888]

3 minutes ago, Abe said:

I honestly think the players thought there was little chance west coast could knock off the crows ( as I did as well) and that acted as a safety net in their minds and they didn't bring the effort needed early. 

I agree though. My expectations are finals and pushing for top 4. If we aren't in the conversation for top 4 going into the final two rounds it's probably a failed season based on our talent and the likely addition of jake lever. 

I think injuries probably cost us 2-3 wins this year and mental weakness probably the same again. We were only genuinely beaten a handful of times which is a positive. 

Min 2018 we should have no fear of any team at all. 

 

I guess this year we had no fear for North, Freo, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Brisbane, GC for starters. We had them beat for the first five seconds.

Edited August 29, 2017 by america de cali

[Ted Lasso 19,580]

Just now, america de cali said:

I guess this year we had no fear for North, Freo, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Brisbane, GC for starters. We played like winners for the first five seconds.

That's definitely something for the coaches to work on. We will go nowhere if we can't start boosting our % in those games not losing or falling over the line in them. 

We need to be ruthless 

[CBDees 3,167]

3 hours ago, DemonLad5 said:

13-15 should be expected. Anything less is another failed season

I go 16-18 wins assuming that includes at least two weeks of Finals in September.

[Garbo 1,561]

Anyone expecting 16 wins next year will be in for a very disappointing year. I think getting 13-14 will be more than hard enough with the tougher draw we will get, everyone saw what happened to saints this year, don't be surprised is we take a step back in wins.

[—coach— 3,496]

1 hour ago, P-man said:

Finals or bust for sure. No grey area next season.

I know people won't like hearing it, but it is still the third youngest squad in the league. The two that were younger than us were fighting to avoid the wooden spoon in Round 23. Depth almost always comes into play so the age of the entire squad is relevant.

Whilst it is four years into this rebuild they haven't all been there for the entire four years. Oliver in his second year. Petracca essentially in his second year. Brayshaw in his third year after lengthy concussion interruptions. Hogan still a youngish player with numerous setbacks. Lewis and Hibberd brand new to the system.

I'm not wanting to make excuses but these things need to be noted when talking about where we are at and where we should be at. There is no excuse for how they finished the season, but it's worth nothing there is a lot of scope for improvement.

We will be extracting the last drops out of Vince and Lewis next season as best 22 players. Pending on who we replace them with, there will be a gap in experience left in their wake. Their time is now.

I'm happy setting 16 wins as a pass. Even if I think it probably won't be reached. They must aim high and they must let 2017 be a lesson that is never repeated. When everything is on the line, play like it is.

 

Understand where you are coming from but that makes the loss on Saturday even worse:

Experience differential

Games: Melbourne (2154) v Collingwood (1569)

Goals: Melbourne (1370) v Collingwood (933)

Average age: Melbourne (25 years, 43 days) v Collingwood (23 years, 274 days)

 

[dieter 3,325]

Heard Paul Roos on The Conversation Hour with Epstein today. He said if you'd told a Demon supporter at the beginning of the year we'd win 12 games and end with a percentage of 105 he'd take that.

He also pointed out the huge impact the loss of Jones, Gawn, Viney and Hogan made  ( not to mention how they all struggled for a few weeks when they got back ) and, last but not least, that on most weekends we fielded the youngest side in the competition.

He then said if Melbourne doesn't perform next year, then we'll be able to legitimately complain.

[loges 6,767]

43 minutes ago, Garbo said:

Anyone expecting 16 wins next year will be in for a very disappointing year. I think getting 13-14 will be more than hard enough with the tougher draw we will get, everyone saw what happened to saints this year, don't be surprised is we take a step back in wins.

Why will we get a tougher draw? Its 3 blocks of 6 teams, we'll be in the same position as this year.

[John Crow Batty 8,888]

2 minutes ago, dieter said:

Heard Paul Roos on The Conversation Hour with Epstein today. He said if you'd told a Demon supporter at the beginning of the year we'd win 12 games and end with a percentage of 105 he'd take that.

He also pointed out the huge impact the loss of Jones, Gawn, Viney and Hogan made  ( not to mention how they all struggled for a few weeks when they got back ) and, last but not least, that on most weekends we fielded the youngest side in the competition.

He then said if Melbourne doesn't perform next year, then we'll be able to legitimately complain.

He has to sell a S**t sandwich because there's nothing else.

[hemingway 7,633]

After the last few days, I will be dampening my expectations. I will have hopes and dreams but not expectations. Self-protection against my mood state since the weekend. This will take a long time to overcome. 

The reality check is that there are 18 teams all expecting to do better and make the 8.  All have a spread of young talent courtesy of the draft. Watching Brisbane a few weeks ago was enough to tell me that they have a lot of upside. Likewise Collingwood. The competition is very even as we know and every side needs good form, injury free players, a few star players and lots of luck.  The Dogs had it last year and the Tigers this year.  Matches will continue to be tight and go either way. What I do know is if we don't improve as a team and reduce our skill errors, turnovers and passages of dumb footy we will struggle. No sides will gift us games. We will need a year free of serious injury to top players and we need most of our young players to step up.  

We also need the coach and coaching staff to step up. Team selection, team balance, game plan, game day tactics and injury/ fitness management will need to improve. We were injury depleted and physically and mentally stuffed by R.16. 

Looking back over the year, I wonder if Roos would have been better.  I worry about Goodwin.  I agree with others who feel he needs a Roos like mentor. 

Like others I will go to matches next near but will be keeping my powder dry until the last game of the year.

I do not wish to have my expectations smashed on the rocks of despair again. 

[H_T 3,049]

The reality check is ...and it will fall on deaf ears as usual because mindsets are sometimes set in stone around here ... is that there are at least half the competition and it's supporters 'expecting' to make finals and be a Premiership contender - not with 'hopes and dreams'  - expectations. It's these supporters that help drive their clubs and their players to achieve high standards...unlike the impotent and insipid display on Saturday when the stakes were at the absolute highest. 

[Bates Mate 4,511]

Let's see the draw first

[sisso 2,608]

It will come down to player availability again: an injury list as bad or worse than this season and we will struggle

[Diamond_Jim 12,726]

5 hours ago, At the break of Gawn said:

There's a heap of pressure on Goody's new game plan now. He'll need to refresh it and bring something back even better as clubs have now worked out the coming off the square stuff.

The present game plan is not going to deliver 16 wins simply because while it makes the team competitive against better teams it allows lower teams to stay in the game. When every game is around a 50/50 chance the upsets increase.

[beelzebub 23,390]

5 hours ago, At the break of Gawn said:

There's a heap of pressure on Goody's new game plan now. He'll need to refresh it and bring something back even better as clubs have now worked out the coming off the square stuff.

Needs much tinkering ..it does

[Red and Blue realist 2,063]

2 hours ago, Garbo said:

Anyone expecting 16 wins next year will be in for a very disappointing year. I think getting 13-14 will be more than hard enough with the tougher draw we will get, everyone saw what happened to saints this year, don't be surprised is we take a step back in wins.

I actually think our draw should be easier than this year. In an even comp who you play becomes less relevant for example North beat us 2x and also Adelaide, Brissy beat Essendon, Carlton beat Sydney, Freo beat us and Richmond, Gold Coast beat Geelong etc etc. What killed us this year was the actually draw timing. I posted this in another thread, but we got a horror run of 6 day games and also played few teams coming of shorter breaks. 

Given we were a younger team I think with a more even draw we would have been better placed to recover. You can see how we fared against the draw for the top 8 teams and clearly we got a poor draw, so I'm hopeful PJ will be addressing this and getting us the same advantages as other teams have. 

	6 day breaks	Playing teams on 6 day breaks	Games against teams with shorter breaks
Adel	7	10	10
Geel	8	9	8
Rich	6	5	8
GWS	5	7	9
Pt Adel	6	5	8
Syd	6	7	10
Ess	7	7	9
WC	6	5	5
Melb	9	2	5

 

[Little Richard 6,265]

2 hours ago, dieter said:

Heard Paul Roos on The Conversation Hour with Epstein today. He said if you'd told a Demon supporter at the beginning of the year we'd win 12 games and end with a percentage of 105 he'd take that.

He also pointed out the huge impact the loss of Jones, Gawn, Viney and Hogan made  ( not to mention how they all struggled for a few weeks when they got back ) and, last but not least, that on most weekends we fielded the youngest side in the competition.

He then said if Melbourne doesn't perform next year, then we'll be able to legitimately complain.

The last decade isn't enough reason to 'legitimately complain'?

[beelzebub 23,390]

2 hours ago, dieter said:

Heard Paul Roos on The Conversation Hour with Epstein today. He said if you'd told a Demon supporter at the beginning of the year we'd win 12 games and end with a percentage of 105 he'd take that.

He also pointed out the huge impact the loss of Jones, Gawn, Viney and Hogan made  ( not to mention how they all struggled for a few weeks when they got back ) and, last but not least, that on most weekends we fielded the youngest side in the competition.

He then said if Melbourne doesn't perform next year, then we'll be able to legitimately complain.

Im a grumpy old BA$TARD   and I'm complaining right now.

Also here in lies the problem to much of this narrative and it seems its the get out point for those in rifle sights.  "at the beginning of the year"

This is a bit like curtain 2, box1 or Door 3. We don't know really what to compare anything to.  How ever if you open boxes, open doors and draw curtains you then are presented with some sort of picture of expectation. This is where we are now..  We KNOW what was there, what was on offer and what we got.

Sorry Paul, not buying your mumbo jumbo . There was a very real expectation we should be in the eight right now. We aren't. If you were to revisit the same Melbourne supporter referenced and ask his thoughts now ??

We seized defeat from the jaws of successful campaign. Nothing new really.

[dieter 3,325]

35 minutes ago, Red and Blue realist said:

I actually think our draw should be easier than this year. In an even comp who you play becomes less relevant for example North beat us 2x and also Adelaide, Brissy beat Essendon, Carlton beat Sydney, Freo beat us and Richmond, Gold Coast beat Geelong etc etc. What killed us this year was the actually draw timing. I posted this in another thread, but we got a horror run of 6 day games and also played few teams coming of shorter breaks. 

Given we were a younger team I think with a more even draw we would have been better placed to recover. You can see how we fared against the draw for the top 8 teams and clearly we got a poor draw, so I'm hopeful PJ will be addressing this and getting us the same advantages as other teams have. 

	6 day breaks	Playing teams on 6 day breaks	Games against teams with shorter breaks
Adel	7	10	10
Geel	8	9	8
Rich	6	5	8
GWS	5	7	9
Pt Adel	6	5	8
Syd	6	7	10
Ess	7	7	9
WC	6	5	5
Melb	9	2	5

 

This makes very interesting reading as Captain Schultz would say. Or was it Maxwell?

The bottom line is the AFL mafia can tinker with the draft and bailouts all they like. It WILL NOT  be an even competition until they make the draw an even proposition and not a lottery -  god knows how they'll do that -  till the 6 day break anomaly is evened out and the draw doesn't simply favour teams who pull the biggest crowds.