Changes v Carlton

[Ted Lasso 19,549]

We play Carlton 55-45 our way even with injuries 

Adelaide 60-40 their way but we aren't without a chance 

port where we are a fair chance to get Jones and Salem back 50-50 maybe us a slight edge given their form against good sides 

north which I think is 70-30 our way with their injuries and Viney possibly back 

Giants which is tough but we've won the last few against them 60-40 their way 

Saints which is 50-50 and elimination final like 

Brisbane who we should beat 

Collingwood who we should beat. 

 

I think we beat carlton, north, pies and lions and that gets us into finals 

but also a good chance to beat saints and power as well. 

[Devil is in the Detail 883]

8 hours ago, BarnDee said:

sorry to say  but we are GONE   i will still tip us this weekend   as usual , but really we are gone  , no finals this year   , need a miracle    and we all know about miracles dont we , , [censored] off 

 

[Gator 17,453]

Ball movement and our ability to nullify them at the stoppages without Viney (and potentially Tyson) will decide the game.

Many sides have found it difficult to penetrate Carlton's zone defence, including us in round 2, but we found a way late in the game.  I think what we learnt later in that game will be important, notwithstanding Carlton will be playing slightly differently since then.

If our arousal levels and physicality is in line with most games this season I'm confident we can be in with a chance in a close game.

As an aside, we will be fielding a younger and less experienced side this week and Carlton will be playing 8 x top 6 draft picks, including 6 x top 3.   

[Dee Zephyr 19,268]

Does anyone know what time training is on tomorrow?

[loges 6,767]

8 hours ago, Petraccattack said:

If might be his choice to return via the VFL.

Yes it might, but I don't think it will be 

[bush demon 2,062]

On 04/07/2017 at 11:22 PM, rjay said:

Cleary is taking a punt...

is that Sauce from Sea Lake?

[HBDee 369]

Outs IMO: Viney (inj), Bugg (susp), Tyson (inj), White (omit).

Ins IMO: Hogan, Garlett, JKH, Kennedy

T.Mac plays CHF up the ground. Pedo and Hogan play deeper forward. Test their young talls. 

Neal-Bullen goes to inside mid, it's where he belongs, he can have 20 handballs and not kick it and 10 tackles and he will have had a good day. Apart from Hogan, TMac, Omac, Gawn, Pedo, Frost, Wagner, Jetta, Hibberd and probably Jeffy, the rest of the team can rotate on the ball. 

[Older demon 2,779]

Out of left field. Max in game 2 said that Kruezer had given him grief in the past and was happy to match him in round 2 so maybe the club will return to the JLT experiment of 2 tall ruckmen. Spencer to Kruezer and Max the marking forward. That would put enormous pressure on their back who always play the extra man back. I thought our lack of tall marking power up forward hurt us last week as many kicks under finals type pressure were to a contest and easily defended. 

Viney will be out as will Bugg and White struggled. Tyson still a slim chance to get up as there was no structural damage to his knee. 

Carlton strength lies in Kruezer, Murphy, Gibbs, Crips in the middle and run of half back. Goody with strategy will go a long way to deciding this match.

[Deespicable 2,886]

Over the past month, the three best midfielder in the comp have been Dusty, Danger and Gibbs. Further to that Gibbs has a great track record against us - absolutely smashed us in Rd 22 last year and was handy, not sensational, in Rd 2 this year. You can't put a small mid on him, so it must be a hard tag from either Vince, Jordy or Melky - at least we have three options.

Then they have Cripps who also killed us in Rd 22 last year and was having a huge impact third term in Rd 2 when Jordy intervened. Given that he is their major hardball man - it is up to Oliver and Petracca to beat him with their intent at stoppages. If they do, then we are half way home.

Don't underestimate the loss of our two leaders - Jones and Viney. Jonesy in particular has done a great job on Murphy the past few seasons, so finding the right match up for Murphy's outside run won't be easy - is JKH ready for this role? Is ANB? Or do we put Melky there?

Then there is Gawny v Kreuz. I think the best thing is that Gawny is an avid ruck-watcher and he knows Kruez is probably the AA ruckman at the moment. He also knows that he lost his way last week, losing his balance a couple of times and becoming stationary (lazy!). I will be very surprised if Gawny doesn't lift for this one, but on paper we will be smashed at the clearacnes, so it will be a great test for our gameplan and the ability of our youngsters Oliver and Trac.

The other major factor is whether we still have enough overall confidence after last week's loss - when you are belted it can take a bit to get you back going - this is a major challenge for Goody and his gameplan.

It will be a low-scoring affair - that's the way they play - they switch down back incessantly. But at least this week we aren't going to be as slow up forward (possibly our three amigos from 2016 - Hogan, Kent and Jeffy - will unite again) and also with our run from down back (Hunt will definitely start down back this week).

Don't be surprised if Pedo is left out this week (even last minute) - it will be a forward balance thing if he does and will be related to the fact that with T-Mac having been so good, we can afford to play another quick mobile tackler to counter the Blues pace back there.

I have six Ins tonight (it's a Sunday game after all). But Tyson will be tested tomorrow and may not quite come up.

In: Hoges, Garlett, JKH, Kent, Kennedy, Smith

Out: Bugg, Viney, White

 

[binman 43,762]

So if Hogan comes back in this week we get the chance to assess how the club rate OMac. 

Several posters said a few weeks back that he is only in the side because of the injuries to Gawn, Spencer and Hogan that has meant Tmac forward and alternating in the ruck with Pedo.

Well, if Hogan comes back he joins Gawn in the side. The blues only really have the one big forward so no need for all of Tmac, Pedo and Omac. If they pick him in these circumstances the club is endorsing Omac as a best 22 lock. It would be impossible to argue otherwise.

I have little doubt OMac will be picked. Does anyone seriously think he won't be? And if he is picked that should end the conversation about OMac's position in the side and smash the the ridiculous #OMacmyth he is only in the side because of injury.

[GCDee 3,199]

Really would like to see Kennedy & Trenners get another crack at it.... 

Ins Jeffy, Hoges, Kennedy, Trenners

Outs White, Viney, Tyson & Bugg

Edit: If Tyson gets up, see ya later Wags

Edited July 6, 2017 by GCDee

[Wiseblood 24,637]

I have no idea why some are quick to write us off for this game, even if with the injuries.  We've proven this year that we are never out of games - regardless of how badly we played last week, we were still within striking distance.

This game will be close to be say 'we won't win' is wrong and we've proven that time and time again this season.

[hells bells 2,023]

I have a gut feeling Maynard will debut. 

[Devil is in the Detail 883]

15 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

I have no idea why some are quick to write us off for this game, even if with the injuries.  We've proven this year that we are never out of games - regardless of how badly we played last week, we were still within striking distance.

This game will be close to be say 'we won't win' is wrong and we've proven that time and time again this season.

I agree. The result on the weekend could have easily been a 5-6 goal swing our way between the dropped marks and crucial fumbles through the middle of the ground.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,939]

22 minutes ago, binman said:

So if Hogan comes back in this week we get the chance to assess how the club rate OMac. 

Several posters said a few weeks back that he is only in the side because of the injuries to Gawn, Spencer and Hogan that has meant Tmac forward and alternating in the ruck with Pedo.

Well, if Hogan comes back he joins Gawn in the side. The blues only really have the one big forward so no need for all of Tmac, Pedo and Omac. If they pick him in these circumstances the club is endorsing Omac as a best 22 lock. It would be impossible to argue otherwise.

I have little doubt OMac will be picked. Does anyone seriously think he won't be? And if he is picked that should end the conversation about OMac's position in the side and smash the the ridiculous #OMacmyth he is only in the side because of injury.

O Mac must stay. The one department we are at full strength at the moment is our defense and O Mac has been a big part of that over the last 2 months.

I'd actually put the microscope on Pedo this week. Has had 7 poor quarters over the last 2 weeks and was worse than bad against Sydney. He was admirable between rounds 6-13 but he just plays too many poor and ineffectual games to be considered a regular.

[Devil is in the Detail 883]

5 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

O Mac must stay. The one department we are at full strength at the moment is our defense and O Mac has been a big part of that over the last 2 months.

I'd actually put the microscope on Pedo this week. Has had 7 poor quarters over the last 2 weeks and was worse than bad against Sydney. He was admirable between rounds 6-13 but he just plays too many poor and ineffectual games to be considered a regular.

Really. Pretty sure there a few more people that need a microscope on them before Pedo.

[binman 43,762]

6 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

O Mac must stay. The one department we are at full strength at the moment is our defense and O Mac has been a big part of that over the last 2 months.

I'd actually put the microscope on Pedo this week. Has had 7 poor quarters over the last 2 weeks and was worse than bad against Sydney. He was admirable between rounds 6-13 but he just plays too many poor and ineffectual games to be considered a regular.

I'd agree. he said himself that that the club had told him he needs to be more consistent in his performance but as you say he has been variable in his output in the last couple of weeks. I don't think they will drop him though - at least not this week. He takes Watts's spot up forward.

But when Watts comes back? As 55 and PD have pointed out though it is a bit of conundrum as it it makes a pretty tall side. But as i have said before coaches are generally loath to disrupt back lines so Pedo might be in the gun.

[PaulRB 6,411]

With Gawn and now (hopefully) Hogan back on the field, Pedo needs to play career best footy to warrant his spot. 

Needs a monster game vs Blues. 

[binman 43,762]

1 hour ago, hells bells said:

I have a gut feeling Maynard will debut. 

I wouldn't be surprised either. I reckon they might like to bring someone in they think will go bull at a gate and throw himself into the contest, which is i suspect might be maynards go. 

I reckon Joel smith will get a crack sooner rather than later if he can put a couple of good games together at Casey

[Wiseblood 24,637]

12 minutes ago, PaulRB said:

With Gawn and now (hopefully) Hogan back on the field, Pedo needs to play career best footy to warrant his spot. 

Needs a monster game vs Blues. 

It's sad, but true.  Pedersen has always been a depth player and, while his efforts this year have been immense, he still isn't ahead of Watts and Hogan, and may lose his spot based on that.  

I'd say Watts is still a fortnight away so he has a little time to make an impression and a case for being a second/third tall up forward, but the reality is that he may be squeezed out regardless.

[Nasher 33,617]

OMac appears to have found his feet at this level.

If Hogan plays, there's a big chance Pedersen will be dropped.

[bandicoot 1,395]

1 hour ago, hells bells said:

I have a gut feeling Maynard will debut. 

They will need to submit the paperwork this afternoon and announce his place tonight. Word gets out by now if this is the case.

[Ted Lasso 19,549]

2 hours ago, Wiseblood said:

I have no idea why some are quick to write us off for this game, even if with the injuries.  We've proven this year that we are never out of games - regardless of how badly we played last week, we were still within striking distance.

This game will be close to be say 'we won't win' is wrong and we've proven that time and time again this season.

Even with injuries I have a lot more confidence in us kicking a winning score than I do with them doing it 

[Wiseblood 24,637]

1 minute ago, Abe said:

Even with injuries I have a lot more confidence in us kicking a winning score than I do with them doing it 

True - if Hogan and Garlett return then it adds some real bite to our forward line, one that was missing last weekend.  Do we go with T Mac down there as well, or do we send him back?

The big test, as others have mentioned, will be breaking down their defense.  They stick to their structures very well and rely on the slingshot from the turnover.  Curbing the influence of Docherty and Simpson will go a long way to stopping this, although you could argue no club has really stopped Docherty this year.  We just can't allow ourselves to play into their hands, otherwise we're in for a long day.

[samcantstandya 1,057]

2 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

O Mac must stay. The one department we are at full strength at the moment is our defense and O Mac has been a big part of that over the last 2 months.

I'd actually put the microscope on Pedo this week. Has had 7 poor quarters over the last 2 weeks and was worse than bad against Sydney. He was admirable between rounds 6-13 but he just plays too many poor and ineffectual games to be considered a regular.

Pedo was ineffectual against Sydney not 8n best 22