Looking ahead ... the Path to September

[Diamond_Jim 12,568]

Time to dream guys and gals

We are definitely on the way

Barring injuries and catastrophic form drop offs I now have us on a minimum of 13 wins by seasons end.

This will put us around the 6 or 7 mark.

The odds favour a home final against a Victorian team in the first week unless West Coast can turn its ship around. (Big game next week against the Bulldogs for them).

I would like to think we could pinch another two games at least which would end us on 15 wins.

15 wins should get us fifth but we will probably need some help with percentages to crack the top 4.

For those who complain and say one week at a time I say this time has been a long time coming and it's time my friends to sweep the MFCSS away and dream the dream.

[Gorgoroth 12,947]

I'm trying to not look ahead too much. Got a big game v the Swans this week, then Carlton which scares the bejesus outta me...

[Chook 15,012]

I just did a ladder predictor that had us finishing top 2 a game behind GWS so...no need to worry I guess.

Relax. We've got this.

[Diamond_Jim 12,568]

6 minutes ago, Chook said:

I just did a ladder predictor that had us finishing top 2 a game behind GWS so...no need to worry I guess.

Relax. We've got this.

now that is a seriously good dream

[What 18,810]

Two huge games stick out like a sore thumb on the fixture -

Saints at MCG

Port at MCG

But yes, every game is equally important , I know.

[What 18,810]

Also you can put a line through the teams currently in the bottom 7, none of them good enough to make it -  the 8 is a race between 11 teams.

[Diamond_Jim 12,568]

3 minutes ago, Petraccattack said:

Two huge games stick out like a sore thumb on the fixture -

Saints at MCG

Port at MCG

But yes, every game is equally important , I know.

Saints is a win if we are any good. The other wins I pencilled in are: Carlton, North, Lions and Collingwood

Port .. I have assumed a loss but it is one we could pinch and of course the Swans next week.

Adelaide in Darwin and GWS in Canberra could be a bridge too far but hell.... why not

[Little Goffy 14,521]

Bwa ha, I played with the ladder predictor and had us finishing second on % only, playing the other top 4 teams, Geelong, then Adelaide and finally GWS, to claim the premiership.

Obviously.

I may have forgotten that sometimes there are losses even if you're going well. It's just been so long since we lost a game, I can't remember.

[Big Demon 197]

Swans off a double six day break is a serious challenge. Rest look ok Kangas with our talls back will be way easier, Goldstein is very good and you need a Ruck for that game which we lacked last time around.

 

 

[DeeMfc 621]

No longer a pipe dream.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/why-melbourne-can-win-the-2017-afl-premiership-20170625-gwy45l.html

[brendan 3,436]

I'm not convinced on port they seem like down hill skiers too me they haven't beaten a side inside the 8 yet 

[Pates 9,660]

1 hour ago, Chook said:

I just did a ladder predictor that had us finishing top 2 a game behind GWS so...no need to worry I guess.

Relax. We've got this.

I hate you. 

In all seriousness I'm trying not to look too far ahead. We gave up games earlier in the year against teams we should've beaten; Freo, Hawthorn, and North. 

We've now got two of those back with wins over Adelaide in Adelaide and WC in Perth. We're back on about par of what I was hoping for at this time of year in terms of wins and we have a decent percentage as well (which could be huge at the end). 

Let's take it week to week and focus on beating another team that is very used to singing their song after matches against us. 

[BAMF 4,349]

I've had a look at some old ladders. Most years 12 wins is enough to guarantee you a spot in the finals.

Saints missed out last year on percentage, but this year being so close I think its safe to say that 12 will get you in.

We are currently on 8 wins.

[Diamond_Jim 12,568]

6 minutes ago, BAMF said:

I've had a look at some old ladders. Most years 12 wins is enough to guarantee you a spot in the finals.

Saints missed out last year on percentage, but this year being so close I think its safe to say that 12 will get you in.

We are currently on 8 wins.

Last year was a funny year in the sense that the  8 was decided by around Round 12. Then North had their collapse which left one spot up for grabs.

This year there will be around three spots between around 8 teams up for grabs probably until the second/third last round.

The bottom teams are well capable of "shaping the 8". A great cliche that was too often applied to the MFC prior to '87.

[pineapple dee 2,892]

I just went to Etihad and watched the Saints v Suns. On tonight's effort, the Saints will not get within a bulls roar of us. Pencil that one in.

[Canplay 634]

The reality is we will drop games to teams well below us, and beat teams above.  No point looking ahead more than the cliche one week at a time....

Edited June 25, 2017 by Canplay

[Chook 15,012]

55 minutes ago, brendan said:

I'm not convinced on port they seem like down hill skiers too me they haven't beaten a side inside the 8 yet 

They destroyed Collingwood over here, who we just barely got over.

[Monty Kaufman 44]

I love those ladder predictors, the teams up the top now always seem to go through the rest of the season undefeated and the teams on the bottom only manage one more win at home. 

That said, I had us in the top two as well, but the way this season has gone so far you might as well flip a coin 81 times...

[Wiseblood 24,637]

2 minutes ago, Chook said:

They destroyed Collingwood over here, who we just barely got over.

And they were mauled by the Bombers over here as well.  I don't necessarily think Port are downhill skiers, but they do seem to have a soft underbelly.

I'm trying not to get too excited about our potential to plays finals as there is still plenty of the season to go, but it's bloody exciting to be part of the discussion at this point in our season.

[Moonshadow 17,676]

We will finish top and romp home in the Grannie

Any objectors?

Thought not.....

[Diamond_Jim 12,568]

17 minutes ago, Moonshadow said:

We will finish top and romp home in the Grannie

Any objectors?

Thought not.....

please tell me more about the path to such enlightenment my Guru

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

39 minutes ago, Chook said:

They destroyed Collingwood over here, who we just barely got over.

That's true but Port lost at home to West Coast earlier in the year.....

[Chook 15,012]

Just now, Demon77 said:

That's true but Port lost at home to West Coast earlier in the year.....

Are you saying West Coast aren't that good? I beg to differ. We just got over them with Kennedy and LeCras out.

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,819]

I'm really just hoping Viney's shoulder and Salem's hammy arn't too bad.  We've done very well without Gawn and Hogan, but going without Viney and Jones for too long could be bad news.  Getting up next week against the Swans next week will be more of mirricle win than the WC IMHO, that said I'm not writing us off either.

So far this season we've been able to prevent consecutive losses which is a real credit to the team.  It was a real trate of the MFC teams of the 90s to display bursts of form in which we looked like absolute world beaters only to loose the next 4 or 5 on the trot and have to fight tooth and nail to make finals.  Let's hope this new breed is different, the Dogs might have won flags from 7th, but the odds are stacked against winning from outside the top four.

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

6 minutes ago, Chook said:

Are you saying West Coast aren't that good? I beg to differ. We just got over them with Kennedy and LeCras out.

Not saying that at all, it shouldn't really matter what one team did  to a team we narrowly defeated.