Making the 8 not as silly as it sounds

[Moneider96 1,045]

One week at a time lads. Focus only on what you can control.

[hells bells 2,023]

9 hours ago, Hell Bent said:

We will have to wait for another team to drop out, it wont be GWS, they are a lock.

 

I think the two likely teams to drop out are Gold Coast and Geelong.  I've watched the cats a few times and with the exception of the round 1 win against the Hawks I don't think they are playing amazing football.  

They lost to GWS, and since then have beaten Brisbane, Essendon and Port.  Not teams that are playing well.  

[WattsGawnOn 122]

There is hype around us at the moment and rightly so, but the club really needs to win next week and continue to play as they have been before we talk finals..

[Deeoldfart 7,864]

Well I just love the fact that we are having this conversation at all ...... and while it's still very early in a long season, it's a legitimate discussion to be having.  Bugger me, even a few in the media are not totally dismissing our chances of scraping into the eight.  When was the last time that happened?

Of course there are a multitude 'ifs & buts', but I think we are a sneaky chance if our key players remain fit, and our younger players don't tire too much in the second half of the season, when our draw clearly gets tougher.  

Importantly, we are only one or two poor games away from ending our chances for 2016, so we can't afford slip-ups.  Some people have said that the Essendon game was the 'wake-up call' we needed to have, and that might well be the case.  However, another 'shocker' like that will not only cost us 4 points and percentage, it will almost certainly knock a hole in the confidence which is a key ingredient of the 'winning' brand of football we are currently playing.

[MadAsHell 4,089]

13 hours ago, Timothy Reddan-A'Blew said:

 

Could 13 wins squeeze us in? Port in Adelaide seems the most possible of these (we ran them very close there last year), or maybe one of the Suns, Dogs or Adelaide games (we have no particular hoodoos with any of them). Should we only get one of those 4, what a game Rd 23 might be! Combine the memories of Kardinia Park last year and the role it played in the last round of '87! Be still my beating heart (it certainly will be beating fast on 26 or 27 or 28 August "TBC" if this scenario eventuates!)

 

Since the introduction of the top 8 in 1994, no team has ever won 13 games and not made the 8.  Some teams (Collingwood 2002) have even finished in the top 4 with 13 wins.  Only 4 teams have missed the top 8 with 12 wins.  So if we can manage 13 wins, you can lock it in that we'll be playing finals football.

[Radar Detector 1,339]

A mate said something to me on Friday that I thought was very indicative of where we are at as a team:

"You guys are in a great but frustrating position. You would go into every game thinking you are a realistic chance of winning now, which is true. But realistically, you'll probably lose about half of those games"

That is exactly where I see us. Right now I see us as just behind GWS and probably about even with Gold Coast fighting for 8th. Collingwood will improve and are only a game behind and I still wouldn't be banking wins against the likes of Port Adelaide or Freo with any confidence just yet.

That said, if we can get a third of the way into the season at 5-2, maybe we can build some momentum on the back of increased confidence. We have the talent. But I reckon we might be 12 months away from seeing a really good side emerge. I reckon we'll just miss but it will be a good ride anyway.

[H_T 2,941]

On 4/24/2016 at 8:51 AM, america de cali said:

If we can consistently perform like the past three weeks we are an excellent chance for a finals appearance. We nearly beat North and got the points over a generally impressive GWS so far. We have to atone for the Bombers loss with a genuine big scalp. Some other team has to take the place of sides like Freo and the Tigers that appear to have dropped off the perch. 

Agree with the big scalp... If we're to make it, the likes of Gawn, Viney need to remain injury free (touch wood). They are so instrumental at the moment. It's a long season and they will be tested. They will run into opposition with intent to hurt them at some stage. I have no doubt. Fingers crossed their teammates look after them and consistently pull their weight.

Footnote: *Let's not get ahead of ourselves* - they're still young and we'd be negligent of not expecting a couple of speed humps during season. St.Kilda game is a prime example. They went close to beating the Hawks.

[Little Goffy 13,039]

If not for the appalling loss to the Bombers (how many sentences will start with that this year?) we'd be top-4 right now!

As it is, only % separates us from 6th. And that includes the unpredictable Giants, totally unpredictable Suns, and downright wacky Eagles.

Alas, this weekend we are favourites against the Saints, so I guess we'll be dropping off the pace a little.

 

I'm going to make a ridiculously wild tip here and suggest that there is a real possibility that the wheels could fall of North Melbourne and they might not make the 8. Bookmark it and hold me to it if you like - I'm willing to look stupid. 

[Skuit 9,382]

1 hour ago, Little Goffy said:

I'm going to make a ridiculously wild tip here and suggest that there is a real possibility that the wheels could fall of North Melbourne and they might not make the 8. Bookmark it and hold me to it if you like - I'm willing to look stupid. 

Can you explain why so we can properly assess you on your potential stupidity/foresight?

[Little Goffy 13,039]

3 hours ago, Skuit said:

Can you explain why so we can properly assess you on your potential stupidity/foresight?

I consulted an actuarial table and found that their entire forward line is likely to have chronic bowel problems by mid-way through the season?

Hmm, I'll say it is a kind of semi-rational gut feeling. 

Piecing together - 

* I'm not convinced there's not too much to be taken from their wins so far. Every opponent has allowed them to score freely, and in turn they haven't been able to really put a clamp on any opponents. Next week against the Bulldogs (even depleted) will be an interesting test. Then there's a slightly softer run (Saints, Bombers, Blues) before the opponents start to get a bit tougher mid-season - Swans, Cats, Hawks, Crows (in Adelaide) and Eagles (Perth). It's credible they could be 9-7 by round 16, win another three against weaker opponents, and then face Dogs, Swans, Hawks and Giants to finish.

* They've been lifted (I wont go so far as to say carried) by consistent stellar performances from a smallish group. Most obviously the Goldstein/Waite combo in Ruck and CHF. Lose either of those and they have nobody to come in to hold the position. Preuss and Daw are their only other listed rucks. Petrie and Brown are already out there as tall forwards. If either one of Goldstein or Waite hadn't been available for the first five rounds, they'd be sitting mid-table.

* Did someone mention old -> heightened risk of injury? Well, to put that in context, so far this season North have had 19 players play all five games. Not a single significant player has been even given a dent in the side. Only 4 individual games have been played by the half of their list that isn't 'best 22'. And despite having a ridiculously clean injury list, Ben Jacobs and Lindsay Thomas aren't under much threat for their positions.

So, basically, what I'm saying is that so far absolutely everything has gone right for them, and they've just scraped in over the Crows and Demons while notching decent wins over weaker/up and down clubs. Their draw gets a lot harder from here and their luck will keep being stretched.

Another way to look at it - after comparable starting opponents, the difference between the Kangaroos and us on the ladder is... one goal. 

 

 

 

[Hellaintabadplacetobe 4,166]

13 hours ago, hells bells said:

I think the two likely teams to drop out are Gold Coast and Geelong.  I've watched the cats a few times and with the exception of the round 1 win against the Hawks I don't think they are playing amazing football.  

They lost to GWS, and since then have beaten Brisbane, Essendon and Port.  Not teams that are playing well.  

Yeah GCS i expect will drop out. The other team who have a very tough draw is Adelaide. They are in ripping form now but I'm not sold they can keep it up all year. If they stumble maybe we can take the Suns place in the 8. 

We will need a few big scalps this year though and simply cannot lose to bottom 4 teams like last year!

 

 

[Maldonboy38 6,157]

The only 3 teams that outclass us across the board so far in 2016 are Hawthorn, Sydney and Adelaide.

We have shown we can match it with North and GWS so I expect similar close games against Bulldogs, Geelong,  and Gold Coast. 

We are beating the teams around us - Collingwood, Richmond, 

We should be too good for Carlton, Brisbane etc... (but we thought that about Essendon) 

Considering we  will probably win some games unexpectedly against good opposition, and lose again once or twice to the cellar dwellers, I have this horrible sinking feeling we might be fighting Geelong in the final round for a spot in the top 8. 

[Skuit 9,382]

13 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

I consulted an actuarial table and found that their entire forward line is likely to have chronic bowel problems by mid-way through the season?

Hmm, I'll say it is a kind of semi-rational gut feeling. 

Piecing together - 

 

Cheers LG. Can you now do a take-down of Geelong for us?

[Little Goffy 13,039]

2 hours ago, Skuit said:

Cheers LG. Can you now do a take-down of Geelong for us?

Uh, ask me again late in round 23?

Honestly, before Rnd 1, I had Geelong as a credible top-4 and an loose chance for the premiership. They aren't looking quite that dangerous but there's a good team there.

Main vulnerabilities I can spot are a lack of spread for contested marking (Pretty much Hawkins, fresh air), clearances, and rebound 50s.

I expected more from both Henderson and Smith. Meanwhile, Harry Taylor is having a poorish season by his standards.

The edges are a little frayed at Geelong, might be a bit of the Richmond thing of having too few core players carrying too much responsibility. But you'd have to expect them to at least be in the 8 right up until we smash them and pass them on % late in August. 

[Nasher 33,246]

It seems odd to me that we've won two weeks in a row this early in the season, and didn't move from 10th place.  The good news is that if we win this week, the worst we can end up is 9th!

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

How good is it to have a percentage well over 100.

[John Crow Batty 8,377]

11 minutes ago, Nasher said:

It seems odd to me that we've won two weeks in a row this early in the season, and didn't move from 10th place.  The good news is that if we win this week, the worst we can end up is 9th!

Thankfully we are not in familiar territory.

[John Crow Batty 8,377]

 

Jack Viney thinks we are a good chance.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/melbourne-demons-can-make-afl-finals-jack-viney-says-20160427-gofv0g.html

[SaberFang 7,141]

It's mathematically possible for us to be 3rd on the ladder on Sunday night.

We just need to beat the Saints by 100 points, have Brisbane defeat Sydney by 100 points, have North beat Bulldogs by 100 points, and have Gold Coast defeat Geelong by 45 points!

No sweat! 

[P-man 13,353]

My mind is caught three ways: the game ahead, the season ahead and the future ahead.

Previously it was just the game ahead and the future ahead, as in what chance in hell do we have this week (usually none), and where the hell are we going as a club? It's a nice change to be comfortable on both those fronts and actually think about the fortunes of the season ahead.

I'm trying to park the thoughts about how all the talent is going to squeeze into the side in the coming years. If the likes of Hunt and Wagner are able to settle, it makes things very interesting indeed considering the talent that didn't play on the weekend.

[SaberFang 7,141]

5 minutes ago, P-man said:

I'm trying to park the thoughts about how all the talent is going to squeeze into the side in the coming years. If the likes of Hunt and Wagner are able to settle, it makes things very interesting indeed considering the talent that didn't play on the weekend.

Which makes list depth all the more important. The biggest benefit for such a young list is gaining the ability to rest players for a match and freshen them up (like Oliver last week, who will likely replace Brayshaw until he's cherry ripe).

It means as soon as form drops off we can pick the best form player from the VFL to slot right into the role like a recharged battery. It's all very exciting.

That we're able to hold back a player like Petracca would've been unthinkable for MFC supporters a few years back, now it's a reality.

[Little Richard 5,943]

51 minutes ago, america de cali said:

 

Jack Viney thinks we are a good chance.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/melbourne-demons-can-make-afl-finals-jack-viney-says-20160427-gofv0g.html

'Teammates including Jayden Hunt, Dom Tyson, Max Gawn, Dean Kent and Ben Kennedy were playing some of the best football of their careers'.

He's only played 2 games. But yes, he is good.

[Chris 2,892]

50 minutes ago, Django said:

'Teammates including Jayden Hunt, Dom Tyson, Max Gawn, Dean Kent and Ben Kennedy were playing some of the best football of their careers'.

He's only played 2 games. But yes, he is good.

Carro is right though, his second game was better than his first so he is technically playing the bast footy of his career!

Edited April 27, 2016 by Chris

[Wrecker45 3,378]

18 hours ago, Maldonboy38 said:

I have this horrible sinking feeling we might be fighting Geelong in the final round for a spot in the top 8. 

If we are fighting Geelong in the final round for a spot in the 8 it will make my year.

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-04-27/suns-injury-crisis-rischitelli-and-prestia-out

These kinds of external variables ^^^,  (as unfortunate as they are for the opposition club and individual) will massively help our chances.

The suns are really being tested on the injury front at present with a whole host of first choice midfielders now missing and a few key back players missing too.

For a team like us, all of these little things help. We're clearly riding high on confidence which is why I'm confident against the Saints this week. We're all go at the minute and for a young club and a club starved of wins for so long, we need to keep riding this winning wave.

Other variables will also have an influence and for once, we're seeing injury occur to the opposition rather than us when we're coming up against them.

The next month of games are all extremely winnable. Let's keep this snowball gowing.

 

 

Edited April 27, 2016 by stevethemanjordan