2016 will be a breakout year for...

[Gator 16,893]

7 hours ago, Mad_Melbourne said:

Nothing you have said actually continues on from any of the points that I made in relation to your actual expectations and how ridiculous the bar you set for him as a player was. Not only are you only placing a goal output on his expectations, but the fact that you only consider a 30 goal increase from his previous season to be an acceptable level is ridiculous, where do you expect Melbourne to finish? Will our total goal tally increase by only 30 goals  and it is the responsibility of Jack Watts to kick all these? If not, even if it improves by 100 goals he is still responsible for effectively 1/3 of our increased goal tally and therefore this is why your expectations are clearly unrealistic.

Whilst I am not disagreeing that he is not going to be playing as a more permanent forward, he will not a be a deep target and will be playing as more of the 5th as a forward, pushing up and down the ground and effectively playing as a midfielder whilst in that role as a HFF. He will not be spending more than 15-20% of his game time in our forward 50 in my opinion, unless they are completely changing the role that he has played and did play last year. This also indicates that the amount of times we will be looking for him in our forward 50 will be insignificant relative to Hogan, Dawes, Gartlett, Frost and even possibly Gawn who could well spend a similar amount of game time in the deep forward area. He is more damaging for us being the player recieving the ball at around the 65m mark anyway and delivering it into 50 and whilst you think that goal assists are not what he should be basing an acceptable season on, score involvements its definitely what he should be aiming to increase.

Whilst it is fair to expect improvement from Watts, and I do expect continual improvement from most of our players. The areas of improvement that need to come from Watts will be the ability to continually be involved in the contest and whilst you may say that is "modest and naive" it is 100% what would have been said to him at his end of year meeting and again what will be said to him by the coaches when goals are set for the season. Will this lead to a 40 goal season, it is highly unlikely considering all of the available information, but I do not really expect you to have a logical argument about a player you so openly dislike and your bias has a major impact on what you expect or consider a reasonable season.

EDIT: Happy to have a reasonable conversation about Jack Watts and anything that involves the melbourne football club, but a reasonable conversation is tough when you rarely address the points made in the response and choose to take the small quote out which you feel best suits your often condescending and patronizing posts.
 

I don't have the time or inclination to write a book about Watts, although I probably have cumulatively.

But a couple of things that are pertinent to your response which are at odds with my view on Watts and 2016.

Rightly, or wrongly, I'm under the assumption that he will spend a lot more time in the forward 50 than you're suggesting and that he will spend time equivalent to those other goal-kickers I referenced.

I believe that we will win roughly 9-10 games next year and possibly more if we can get off to a "flyer" in the first 6 games.

We've set our sights on finals, so the club will need a minimum of 270 goals, but around 300 would be the aim.  Clearly we need more players kicking 15+ goals (Jones, Tyson, Vince and possibly Brayshaw).  I believe Hogan will kick 60, Garlett 40, plus we need some mids/flankers stepping up with 20+.  I believe Petracca can kick 30 goals next year.  Howe kicked 28 one year, so I see no reason why Watts can't kick 35 (a minor concession for you).  No need to add up all of these tallies and declare the grand total to be unrealistic, because clearly things won't pan out uniformly as I'm suggesting.  These are aspirational, because I recognise we need to have more inside 50's and kick more goals.

But it's the following where we clearly differ...

Unlike you, I'd prefer Watts impacting the scoreboard, because if he's regularly impacting the scoreboard he's going to be in a more dangerous area of the ground, which by nature means he'll be upping his "goal assists".

Watts isn't a high accumulator of the footy, so I'd rather he get his possessions closer to goal and I do believe he has the talent to be a difficult matchup and marking option.  I know he's never been able to do it regularly, so I'm not confident he will, but for me, he's either hitting the scoreboard or he's not in the team.  He just doesn't impact games when he's up the ground.  

It's pretty simple, give me goals and I'll shut up.

Edited February 1, 2016 by ProDee

[ManDee 7,091]

20 minutes ago, ProDee said:

I don't have the time or inclination to write a book about Watts, although I probably have cumulatively.

But a couple of things that are pertinent to your response which are at odds with my view on Watts and 2016.

Rightly, or wrongly, I'm under the assumption that he will spend a lot more time in the forward 50 than you're suggesting and that he will spend time equivalent to those other goal-kickers I referenced.

I believe that we will win between 9-10 games next year and possibly more if we can get off to a "flyer" in the first 6 games.

We've set our sights on finals, so the club will need a minimum of 270 goals, but around 300 would be the aim.  Clearly we need more players kicking 15+ goals (Jones, Tyson, Vince and possibly Brayshaw).  I believe Hogan will kick 60, Garlett 40, plus we need some mids/flankers stepping up with 20+.  I believe Petracca can kick 30 goals next year.  Howe kicked 28 one year, so I see no reason why Watts can't kick 35 (a minor concession for you).  No need to add up all of these tallies and declare the grand total to be unrealistic, because clearly things won't pan out uniformly as I'm suggesting.  These are aspirational, because I recognise we need to have more inside 50's and kick more goals.

But it's the following where we clearly differ...

Unlike you, I'd prefer Watts impacting the scoreboard, because if he's regularly impacting the scoreboard he's going to be in a more dangerous area of the ground, which by nature means he'll be upping his "goal assists".

Watts isn't a high accumulator of the footy, so I'd rather he get his possessions closer to goal and I do believe he has the talent to be a difficult matchup and marking option.  I know he's never been able to do it regularly, so I'm not confident he will, but for me, he's either hitting the scoreboard or he's not in the team.  He just doesn't impact games when he's up the ground.  

It's pretty simple, give me goals and I'll shut up.

But here we go....

 

[Gator 16,893]

43 minutes ago, ManDee said:

But here we go....

 

To help...

[Jaded No More 58,387]

Hopefully Salem.

We desperately need class off half back, and with Melksham out, Salem becomes even more crucial.

Less Lumumba kicks to nowhere, more Salem top class disposal please! 

[beelzebub 22,238]

5 minutes ago, Jaded said:

Hopefully Salem.
We desperately need class off half back, and with Melksham out, Salem becomes even more crucial.

Less Lumumba kicks to nowhere, more Salem top class disposal please! 

Keep in mind when at the filth Harry rarely kicked it to nowhere. As others catch up to the game Harry will shine. 

Salem won't be a surprise. 

I'm still hoping Goodwin is

[Bombay Airconditioning 5,941]

3 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

Keep in mind when at the filth Harry rarely kicked it to nowhere. As others catch up to the game Harry will shine. 

Salem won't be a surprise. 

I'm still hoping Goodwin is

It's his up and under style.

[Barney Rubble 1,576]

Watts has been nominated as having a breakout year 6 out of his 7 years.

Nothing has come near a breakout out year.

I would love to see the whole midfield have a breakout year, all playing to the same game plan.

I am salivating at the thought of seeing no miss kicks lightning handball that hits targets, and run and carry from our outside players. Pin point passes that hit our forwards lace out on the chest.

[ding 5,126]

Kent

Been a fan since the first time i saw him standing over one of his opponents on the boundary line with his chest puffed out.

Skill, speed, and a bit of See You Next Tuesday about him.

Exactly what we need.

 

[dee-luded 2,958]

12 minutes ago, Barney Rubble said:

Watts has been nominated as having a breakout year 6 out of his 7 years.

Nothing has come near a breakout out year.

I would love to see the whole midfield have a breakout year, all playing to the same game plan.

I am salivating at the thought of seeing no miss kicks lightning handball that hits targets, and run and carry from our outside players. Pin point passes that hit our forwards lace out on the chest.

where on our last hopes, Barney...  As he will be a free agent of some form end of 2016...  if he doesn't want to be a well rounded player,  I feel his time in our jumper is up.

[dee-luded 2,958]

On 1 February 2016 at 5:04 PM, ding said:

Kent

Been a fan since the first time i saw him standing over one of his opponents on the boundary line with his chest puffed out.

Skill, speed, and a bit of See You Next Tuesday about him.

Exactly what we need.

 

love it ding... SYNT

[RalphiusMaximus 5,993]

9 hours ago, Ron Burgundy said:

PDs views on Watts are obviously really well known.

But, in my view, the Jack Watts discussion is as interesting and relevant this year as it's ever been. He's finally part of reasonably well balanced and coached list - given Watts' clear talents, it'll be interesting to see how he is used and how he performs in that role, whatever it may be.

I am predicting a really good season from him.

 

I've said it before and I'll no doubt say it again, Watts' biggest problem is that his teammates never kick to him.  Part of this is his own doing because he can lead too early, especially inside the forward 50 which means that by the time they're ready to kick he's already had his run.  More of it is that our midfielders tend to be slow getting back from the mark, slow to make decisions and generally don't trust themselves to hit a leading target, preferring to bomb high and long to the square and hope someone else will do the hard work of making it into a goal.  When you go to the games rather than watch on TV, you see Watts make multiple leads into space, generally leaving his opponent for dead, and just get ignored.  You see the frustration as he keeps trying to create attacking opportunities and his teammates make the decision to bomb for the boundary and a throw-in instead.  If our midfield improves to the point where they are actually willing and able to hit his leads rather than taking the easy option, he will look like he belongs in an AFL team.  For his part, he needs to recognise the limitations of his teammates and do more to make the option obvious and easy for them.  This would include things like better timing and communication on his leading, perhaps even instructing exactly where he wants the ball to go (something Neitz did very well).  He also needs to improve his ability to hold marks under pressure so his teammates have faith that if they do stuff up the kick a little he'll still be able to contest for the ball. 

[beelzebub 22,238]

RM...there is much in what you say. 

We need to be be quicker and more decisive in going fwd and from what I can tell that's exactly what they're looking to do. So far it's more theory than applied.....but there's a direction !!

[binman 38,637]

On 1 February 2016 at 5:04 PM, ding said:

Kent

Been a fan since the first time i saw him standing over one of his opponents on the boundary line with his chest puffed out.

Skill, speed, and a bit of See You Next Tuesday about him.

Exactly what we need.

 

Yep i'm with you on this one.

I reckon if Kent can avoid injury he is a huge chance for a break out year, in the true sense of the phrase ie going from an average to amazing.

He does have a nice touch of aggro and confidence and  has real X factor. His kicking is also really dangerous, love that he is a lefty and has great penetration. His confidence means that he has a crack at goals when he has a chance, which i love. 

Slots nicely into a half forward flank and with the Trac on the other flank we will have a formidable duo who both have a bit of a strut about them. 

 

[Gator 16,893]

10 minutes ago, RalphiusMaximus said:

I've said it before and I'll no doubt say it again, Watts' biggest problem is that his teammates never kick to him. 

Your last sentence  (which I haven't included) sums things up.  His teammates don't trust him.  And if you know anything about footy trust is huge. 

[thevil1 421]

What constitutes a breakout year anyway? I nominated Gawn but people here say he already had a breakout season last year. Then others nominate Salem & T Mc? They haven't already shown as much as Gawn did last year really? Salem has been very good consistently in his games while T Mc was in AA form first half of last year. Gawn's 2nd half of last year was very good, dominating at times against very poor opposition (Geelong), but it was certainly not at AA level & he still got well beaten at other times. I reckon in 2016 he won't get beaten much at all and should play the whole year injuries permitting. If we're just talking who will go up a level in 2016 you could nominate the whole team, they should all be looking to be better this year than last..... So I'm not too clear what constitutes a breakout year? Surely it has to be at least to the level Viney showed in 2015, which was very very good CONSISTENTLY..... Thus all of the above fit the category IMO.

Just on Watts & his teammates not trusting him, I've seen it many times, he'll make a lead, be well in the clear only to be overlooked. It happens a lot. But let me put it this way, who would you kick it to if you were in our midfield with a split second decision to make, Hogan with 2 defenders on him demanding the ball with vigor or Watts on the lead with a Bennell mismatch one on one with his one hand in the air? I reckon most here would be kicking it to Hogan without a single hesitation, Hogan is a contested beast, whereas Watts has had many many embarrassing moments over his career. Getting beaten by Bennell once is bad enough, do it twice & watch how quickly your teammates avoid kicking it to you. He needs to demonstrate hunger, not just to us fans but to his teammates also it seems. No matter how much they may or may not like him off field, it's time his desire & confidence matched his skill level. I hope he does but after years of defending him I'm doubtful & have been for the past 6+ months now. 

[RalphiusMaximus 5,993]

1 hour ago, ProDee said:

Your last sentence  (which I haven't included) sums things up.  His teammates don't trust him.  And if you know anything about footy trust is huge. 

One would think that this is true of any team sport. 

[Red and Bluebeard 2,044]

I hope 'Its a Grand Old Flag' has a breakout year, so much so that the whole footy community gets sick of hearing it, apart from us Demon diehards, for whom too much is not enough ... 

[Gator 16,893]

2 hours ago, RalphiusMaximus said:

One would think that this is true of any team sport. 

Your point ?

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,478]

4 hours ago, RalphiusMaximus said:

I've said it before and I'll no doubt say it again, Watts' biggest problem is that his teammates never kick to him.  Part of this is his own doing because he can lead too early, especially inside the forward 50 which means that by the time they're ready to kick he's already had his run.  More of it is that our midfielders tend to be slow getting back from the mark, slow to make decisions and generally don't trust themselves to hit a leading target, preferring to bomb high and long to the square and hope someone else will do the hard work of making it into a goal.  When you go to the games rather than watch on TV, you see Watts make multiple leads into space, generally leaving his opponent for dead, and just get ignored.  You see the frustration as he keeps trying to create attacking opportunities and his teammates make the decision to bomb for the boundary and a throw-in instead.  If our midfield improves to the point where they are actually willing and able to hit his leads rather than taking the easy option, he will look like he belongs in an AFL team.  For his part, he needs to recognise the limitations of his teammates and do more to make the option obvious and easy for them.  This would include things like better timing and communication on his leading, perhaps even instructing exactly where he wants the ball to go (something Neitz did very well).  He also needs to improve his ability to hold marks under pressure so his teammates have faith that if they do stuff up the kick a little he'll still be able to contest for the ball. 

Not quite the same, but Robbie Flower had a bit of this problem, too. He'd run to exactly the right spot only for his teammates to miss him with their poor disposal. When Flower played in the State side he dominated because he ran to the right spot and had the ball delivered exactly as it should have been.

[Je Roos Salem 661]

I already think McDonald and Viney are really good players who have basically broken out, all signs lead to Salem and Kent becoming stars for us if avoiding injury in 2016. Tyson has more to prove but I'm yet to be fully convinced he'll be a 'star' as opposed to just a handy midfielder

[monoccular 16,218]

On 31 January 2016 at 4:30 PM, The Song Formerly Known As said:

Had one already (2015), what he will do this year is cement himself as one of the premier ruckmen of the competition. 

#nicnatwho?

I would much prefer him* to be premiership ruckman 

*Gawnuis Maximus

Edited February 1, 2016 by monoccular

[dazzledavey36 48,933]

Was a fan of Kent but my rating went up a gear when he absolutely rag doll some adelaide crow spud who tried to rough up Nathan Jones last year.

#respect 

[Ted Lasso 16,893]

9 hours ago, Je Roos Salem said:

I already think McDonald and Viney are really good players who have basically broken out, all signs lead to Salem and Kent becoming stars for us if avoiding injury in 2016. Tyson has more to prove but I'm yet to be fully convinced he'll be a 'star' as opposed to just a handy midfielder

Just some points to add to this, 

Dom came back in amazing nick from his break, it's clear he is determined to really get back to his best form and beyond this year, it's been a pretty good pre season for him in terms of injury and he's training as well as i've seen him train, looks a bit bigger and stronger and moving well, winning plenty of the ball and generally using it well, we know he has class but i think it's really clicked for Dom just how hard he needs to work to cover the pace he lacks, Jack Viney is a pretty good example of this i reckon

[Ethan Tremblay 28,444]

According to a poll in The Age, Brayshaw came (or is coming) second in the nominated players to have a breakout 2016 season.

He's also my tip from our club. The poll can be found at the bottom of the below linked article.

Great to see a young Dee get some recognition.

http://m.theage.com.au/afl/melbourne-demons/michelle-cowan-appointed-to-melbournes-coaching-staff-20160203-gmkpkt.html

Edited February 3, 2016 by Ethan Tremblay

[Deespicable 2,553]

When it comes to breakout years, it's a question of deciding which players have little or no profile in the eyes of other club supporters before the year starts.

For example Doggie Easton Wood had a huge breakout year last year, and for us I reckon last year's breakout crew was led by Tom Mac, Viney and Gawn.

This year from what I'm seeing at training there's no doubt Kent has impressed and if we are more successful, then all our small forwards will get more of the ball and hence become noticed by others. I also think Kennedy could fall into the same category. And VB is a dangerous unit - both with his speed and his love of tackling - he won't be our best midfielder but I suspect others will spot him more if we string a few wins together.

But the one I'm hoping to be the breakout player is Christian Salem - we need him to become a highly-regarded defensive linkman that has to be tagged - a bit like Adem Yze used to be in 2000. The same could apply to Angus if he was played down back in a similar role to Wood, but I can't see that happening yet - he looks to me like he'll have to tread water as a high half forward, wingman this year with the occasional go in the middle when Viney, Jones or Vince are missing.

As to most important year for, that's another question entirely. Dom Tyson, for example, has already had his breakout year in 2014. But after second-year Dee blues last year, he has a hugely important year ahead.