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GAMEDAY - Round 14

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50 minutes ago, Deemania since 56 said:

To those who say umpires don't cheat according to AFL dogma: Take a look at the differential last night in the free kicks tally between West Coast and the Essendrug teams. Embarrassing differential and when and where these frees were plucked out of nowhere, and paid.  We are not in an even playing field folks.(On this count, it doesn't matter what that team actually is, it is just an overt indicator.)

I think you're confusing cheating with incompetence. And not just the umpires, but the whole Umpiring Department and the AFL's footy department.

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This is a real 50/50 game. On the positive note I see 3 things.

1.. Our forward line is better than theirs.

2. We have more depth in our midfield but Wines and that pal pepper or whatever his name is will have to be watched.

3. Port move the ball slowly.

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39 minutes ago, buck_nekkid said:

So Tyson to the midfield, maybe Salem or Fritzer to play more half forward?  Tyson is not a replacement for Spargo.  Smith is like for like for Pedo.

Dees by 23 points.

Agree.  I think goodwin will play tyson where he excels. On inside as shown in vfl and huge risk tonight if this is not turned around.  I just hope he has the backline sorted. I watched frost play a great game last year at adelaide. May rue his non selection tonight.

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About to hit the road from Mildura for tonight’s blockbuster. The car is packed with 5 dees supporters locked and loaded.

Never been to Adelaide Oval for a night match. Very excited.

We are in the general admin/standing area which I’m guessing gets pretty feral. Is it worth donning the full dees kit or not worth the trouble from the locals?

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2 minutes ago, deeko said:

About to hit the road from Mildura for tonight’s blockbuster. The car is packed with 5 dees supporters locked and loaded.

Never been to Adelaide Oval for a night match. Very excited.

We are in the general admin/standing area which I’m guessing gets pretty feral. Is it worth donning the full dees kit or not worth the trouble from the locals?

Be brave, full Dees kit. Half the fun. In the old days, we would always go into enemy territory with the full kit, and I can tell you, the ferals in those days make today’s ferals look like bashful gentlemen. 

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35 minutes ago, dl4e said:

This is a real 50/50 game. On the positive note I see 3 things.

1.. Our forward line is better than theirs.

2. We have more depth in our midfield but Wines and that pal pepper or whatever his name is will have to be watched.

3. Port move the ball slowly.

I'd say the forward lines are about even.  While we have plenty of firepower, they also have Dixon, the Gray brothers, Wingard, Westhoff, Boak and others rotating through theirs as well.  That's nothing to sneeze at.

In fact I'd say both sides are pretty evenly matched.  It has the potential to be a ripping game of footy, which has been a rarity on a Friday night this year!

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2 hours ago, stevethemanjordan said:

Don't really understand the Tyson for Spargo change. 

We lose pressure in our forward half and haven't exactly addressed our lack or run/speed through the midfield. 

Yeh Tyson is in form but what have we done in regards to match ups? The run of Polec, Ebert and Motlop on the wings?  If Tyson plays wing I won't be happy. 

Essendon played it perfectly in the coaches box with match ups last night and sometimes I wonder whether Goodwin is too headstrong for his own good.  

I await with interest. 

Wow, you're questioning the inclusion of Tyson.  Who would've thunk it?

I think it's quite clear that Harmes will replace Spargo, and Tyson will replace Harmes (who has been playing a lot of minutes in the guts).

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I feel more confidant about this game than Queens birthday.

correct me if I'm wrong but are we going for three wins in a row in Adelaide?

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3 hours ago, low flying Robbo said:

whats this strange feeling playing on a friday night?

Its great isnt it. Now i lnow how blues fans feel every second week.

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2 hours ago, stevethemanjordan said:

Don't really understand the Tyson for Spargo change. 

We lose pressure in our forward half and haven't exactly addressed our lack or run/speed through the midfield. 

Yeh Tyson is in form but what have we done in regards to match ups? The run of Polec, Ebert and Motlop on the wings?  If Tyson plays wing I won't be happy. 

Essendon played it perfectly in the coaches box with match ups last night and sometimes I wonder whether Goodwin is too headstrong for his own good.  

I await with interest. 

Its obviously not a straight swap but i agree that it is strange spargo was not replaced with a small. Garlett must be well out of favour. Goodwin did say he was going for a big bodied side because of the dew. Which i dont really understand.

I also agree that tyson - and smith for that matter - does nothing to address our real issue with pace.

Surely Tyson plays as an iside mid.

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7 minutes ago, binman said:

Its obviously not a straight swap but i agree that it is strange spargo was not replaced with a small. Garlett must be well out of favour. Goodwin did say he was going for a big bodied side because of the dew. Which i dont really understand.

I also agree that tyson - and smith for that matter - does nothing to address our real issue with pace.

Surely Tyson plays as an iside mid.

They may also look to keep Petracca as a deep forward for most of the game as well.  With Tyson playing in the middle it means we can be a little more flexible with our forward set up, while being dangerous down there.  I know some might question the Tyson for Spargo swap as they aren't like for like players, but most of our forwards are terrific when the ball hits the deck and we will look to get it in there and keep in there through pressure around the ball, something the bigger bodies will be able to do for longer.

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Not excited about this game tbh. I think Port will win, and win very comfortably.

We should win the 3 after that though, which will keep us in the 8.

Roll on finals.

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2 hours ago, Deemania since 56 said:

To those who say umpires don't cheat according to AFL dogma: Take a look at the differential last night in the free kicks tally between West Coast and the Essendrug teams. Embarrassing differential and when and where these frees were plucked out of nowhere, and paid.  We are not in an even playing field folks.(On this count, it doesn't matter what that team actually is, it is just an overt indicator.)

I really would like to know if there's a data set containing teams playing, frees for against, umpires in game, frees awarded by umpire to which team and for what and what quarter and where the game is. Then apply a bit of analysis to see if there's any correlation between umpires and teams. 

 

Anyone aware are of any such data? Anyone here with any R or equivalent experience? Happy to have a play with the data but only new to stats and machine learning 

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Who matches up on Westhoff? I see that as an area of concern. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, dl4e said:

This is a real 50/50 game. On the positive note I see 3 things.

1.. Our forward line is better than theirs.

2. We have more depth in our midfield but Wines and that pal pepper or whatever his name is will have to be watched.

3. Port move the ball slowly.

1. It is, and their defence is also less experienced than ours. Need to capitalise on this and score more often when out ball enters our 50. 

2. Pal Pepper - Bahaha classic. 

3. They do move the ball more slowly but if they can control the ball and not let us play our hard running, quick game style then we’ll lose. 

Edited by Ethan Tremblay

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1 hour ago, hemingway said:

Be brave, full Dees kit. Half the fun. In the old days, we would always go into enemy territory with the full kit, and I can tell you, the ferals in those days make today’s ferals look like bashful gentlemen. 

how true that is,went pies members one day, with the good wife of the day,they were utter ferals we won i sang the song in the lift,and got out alive

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1 minute ago, ProperDee said:

Who matches up on Westhoff? I see that as an area of concern. 

Oscar McDonald to play him like a second skin with Joel Smith being the third up and limiting his leads.

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1 minute ago, kevin martin said:

Oscar McDonald to play him like a second skin with Joel Smith being the third up and limiting his leads.

Which leaves who for Dixon... ?

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I have to go out tonight, so I won't be able to watch the game, which is not a problem becuase I can't see Melbourne coming close.

Port is hot, Melbourne is not the sum of its pieces, the game is in Adelaide.

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My thoughts about how we will play. 
Clayton Oliver to have the ball on a string, feeds Dom Tyson and Angus Brayshaw who release outside runners like Christian Salem and Bayley Fritsch. Max Gawn and Jack Viney working as one. Jesse Hogan stretching the backline making room for Tom Mcdonald and Jake Melksham. Joel Smith to grow into an intercept backman then giving the ball to Jordan Lewis and Bernie Vince who set up our game plan. Christian Petracca steps it up, using his bulk to bully opponents, gets the ball cleanly and hits his targets. Alex Neal-Bullen and Tim Smith to apply forward pressure. Oscar McDonald, Neville Jetta and Michael Hibberd to close the backline down and create rebounds. Tom Mcdonald to play all over the field as well as taking marks inside 50. James Harmes and Bailey Fritsch pulling in some screamers. James Harmes could be the relief ruckman for Max Gawn. Nathan Jones to steady the ship. We don't want Port have a run of goals. We reply quickly to tie the game up when they look like owning it. A little worried about our intensity levels for the entire game, especially after the bye. Lets hope we come out strongly from the start and we perform when placed under pressure.

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2 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

Which leaves who for Dixon... ?

Yes Dixon is our problem. We are a bit on the small size and tall mobile player like him will be difficult for us. I think Neville Jetta will have to play very smart on him, keeping him away from the contest and making it very congested when the ball comes in. Or joel Smith will need help from another third up player.

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3 minutes ago, kevin martin said:

Yes Dixon is our problem. We are a bit on the small size and tall mobile player like him will be difficult for us. I think Neville Jetta will have to play very smart on him, keeping him away from the contest and making it very congested when the ball comes in. Or joel Smith will need help from another third up player.

Thats exactly my problem with selection, think we have screwed up, Omac takes someone but they have 3-4 other talls including Dixon/Westoff. I hope its not a massive blunder but I'm less confident than I was.

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49 minutes ago, ding said:

Not excited about this game tbh. I think Port will win, and win very comfortably.

We should win the 3 after that though, which will keep us in the 8.

Roll on finals.

When was that pic of you taken sourpuss?

Kidding....I agree with you. Trying to enjoy this season but I remain a Doubting Thomas; gonna take a bit to earn trust - a win tonight would help!

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13 minutes ago, SFebey said:

Thats exactly my problem with selection, think we have screwed up, Omac takes someone but they have 3-4 other talls including Dixon/Westoff. I hope its not a massive blunder but I'm less confident than I was.

Dont worry too much SF, they don't have Mason Cox to tear us apart. 

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5 minutes ago, Tricky said:

When was that pic of you taken sourpuss?

Kidding....I agree with you. Trying to enjoy this season but I remain a Doubting Thomas; gonna take a bit to earn trust - a win tonight would help!

Yeah, thats what its like isnt it.

We can have a great run of wins, but 1 poor game and the doubt come racing back immediately.

Trust is something thats going to take a lot of time to build, considering our recent (and not so recent) history.

A win tonight would help ofc, but i dont think we have it in us yet.

Whatever happens tonight, i still think we will make the finals. I guess thats trust after all.

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