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An update from Max on Clarry

Demonstone is the Champion of the Universe 🏆

Like all the other clubs, much depends on the front 3rd and how it functions Defence is of no real concern and either is our midfield strength but our entries from the midfield to our forwards is all important It's pleasing that we've bolstered our forward line numbers with the acquisition of McAdam & Billings and we might perhaps see some moments from Tholstrup and maybe even Windsor. Jefferson & Fullarton might surprise too adding to the mainstays of Petty, JVR, Kozzie (forward/mid), Petracca (mid/forward), Fritsch and the small brigade And then the connection forward. Our release forward from our midfield and wings needs to be first rate in terms of the mids having lots of time to dispose of the ball forward without being under undue pressure (midfield schemes needs to be B+ at least) and more importantly, the quality of those disposals to the right spots forward If we can achieve 14-18 marks inside 50 per game on average, we'll go a long way towards another top 4 finish. And a number of those marks need to be in and around the hot spot rather than boundary side A more scientific approach heading into our forward line is required and with the acquisition of McQualter, hopefully our F50 entries improve in terms of quality Do all that and we'll finish high up on the ladder again Let's not forget that we've still got a high quality list ... we just need to get the best out of that list

1. That guy who was a bully in primary school. 2. The kid he bullied. 5. Detective 'Clean' Harold. 8. Dexter Holland. 9. Steve Martin, photo taken in the exact moment he realised maybe comedy acting would be a better career for him.

Who am I Demonlanders? Quiz rules: PM me the names of all players (plus the odd guess) in one hit rather than one or two players at a time. Please don't blurt out names or guesses at this stage. When punters are getting most of them right I'll start naming them (or if no one's interested or having any luck). I've tried to put a couple of easier ones in. Thanks to Demonwiki / Supermercado for some of the pics. The winner will be the champion of the universe. Second and third slightly less so. Good luck! 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.

Interesting points. And I'm willing to go along with that analysis provided the highlighted parts also apply to Melbourne! I mean, let's be honest, if those three things go right for Adelaide they become serious contenders, but if they happen for us we go from top-4 to unbeatable.

I promise I'm not setting out to be a contrarian but I feel like this year the forward line is the least of my worries oddly enough. There are so many question marks going into this season. I trust this side to be competitive no matter who is on or off the field but this is the least confident I have been in having a settled team to build continuity heading into next season. Forwards Yes there is perhaps, system, method, positioning et al that needs improving but much of this as has been noted by @binman and others, until the midfield and wings can improve their disposal and decision making, then this will continue to be an issue. Personel wise I expect JVR to improve, Fritta to have a better run at it health wise, McAdam to provide more options and the smalls to find some better consistency and continuity playing with each other to create and hit the scoreboard more. Of course Petty is the biggest IF regarding his health. If he can play the majority of the season I genuinely think he is the most imposing, physical and natural tall forward we've had since Hogan and should be the focal point. If the somewhat of a pipe dream in Brown being fit enough again to impact a full game is true then that's a bonus. Double bonus would be Jefferson working his way into the main side and performing as I think he has the tools. Backs I know a lot of people talk about depth but I think we're a little bit more thin down back then we have been previously. I think our tall stocks with Tomlinson, McDonald, Turner and Hore are 'OK'. But with Hibberd gone, Smiths uncertainties, Rivers potentially spending more time in the middle, I'm a bit worried about our mid-sized players. The biggest IF for me is can Salem finally get some luck and fitness back to play consistently again. Mids It has been our constant and biggest strength these last few years and right now its the biggest concern right now. Elephant in the room I know its only January but in eight weeks we have our first game and one of our two best midfielders isn't training. Gus rightly so is being eased back in and there won't be pressure on him to slot straight back in. I actually think the period without Clayton last year gave us a different look in the middle that I liked a lot. But will Gus be ok? Can Sparrow be a 20+ disp, impactful consistent midfielder? Can Trac go up a notch again (defensive improvements?). Without Jackson or Grundy what happens if Max goes down? Sorry for the long post. As much as there's many concerns I'm also excited to see how the team tackles all of this. Sometimes adversity brings upon more change and dynamic which this team has lacked in recent years. Go dees!!!

Needs to get fit.

I'm not sure May is one of our three most important players as we have players, for example Disco, Petty and Tmac, who could, to some degree, cover his role. But i could easily be persuaded. Def a super, super important player for us. We have no such player to cover maxy who i think is out most important player by a mile. In fact i think maxy is more important to our premiership chances than other player in the AFL to their team premiership chances. To be honest our reliance on Maxy has always worried me from the perspective of risk management - ie we lose him we are xx%%#&&. Agree tracc is next - in large part because his combination of power, skill, raw ability and positional flexibility cannot be covered.

1. I think you are wrong there, first of all the backline is in good shape with several player that can cover injuries. 2. The midfield is good but does need a quicker type of player there as we are a little one paced when it comes to opening the play up but overall matches up with other teams overall. 3. The forward line has been our achilles heel since 21 and that had a lot to do with the game plan, but has been bolstered and will be interested to see if this years game plan has changed with those players coming in. 4. Overall we are still in contention but Goodwin must change the style we use, Langdon and Hunter must sop playing boundary side and centre attacking a lot more, Kossie should be used as an attacking forward not a defensive one all the time and go no more that the H/F line just like the pies used Elliot and Hill. Will be interesting year I say.

Been bullish for the past 3 seasons but least confident heading into 2024. My main concern is that we are relying on 2 young key forwards with less that 50 goals between them. Essentially rookies. There's a lot of talk of how they make natural progress but so do other teams young key defenders. Really hope McAdam can grab a few and Fritsch is fully fit. Our marking depth inside 50 is shallow.

We'll make the GF. We had a Grundy problem last year not to mention the other. I think we can sort out the forward line with Roo ,Petty and Fritta good targets.BBB a bonus if fit. Might see some big improvers such as Sparrow,Spargo ,ANB and Bowey now showing total reliabilty.Riv also. I don't expect full seasons from Melk and BBB or Tom Mac. Be nice to have Salem and Fritsch firing all year. Pickett will be AA material. Petracca,Gawn and Viney will back up as usual. Oliver will prove his detractors wrong and sort himself. One or two new guys should emerge. We are closer to another grail than it seems.

100% agree. Goody has said from the get go that the aim is to build a team that is contention for a flag for many many years. And that is exactly what they have done. To be objective as possible I apply a racing punters lens to the question of how we'll go next season. In punting the key data point is of course form - of each individual horse in isolation, and more importantly how the form of each horse compares with its competitors. In doing form, (good) punters look at historical form and recent form. Applying a similar lens to the next afl season then these are the pertinent facts (im conceptualising the 2024 season as a Group one WFA classic like say a cox plate). Using the last three seasons as a reference point for historical form to assess the chances of the dees finishing top 4: - the dees have finished top 4 three times - the dees have won one flag - that is the best 'form' of any team over that period - the pies are next best with two top 4 finishes and one flag - next best is the lions with 3 top 4 finishes and one GF appearance - swans and port can argue over next best So, over three seasons the best three teams based on their records are in order, the dees, pies and lions. In horse racing parlance they are top 3 rated teams Looking at recent form (last season): - after very strong win loss records in the regular season the pies won the flag and the lions made the gf. They were the two best teams in 2023. - against the two best teams in the 2023 the dees went 50 50 against both, including a narrow loss against the premiers in the QF - so if for instance you really rate the pies, on form it is logically inconsistent not to also rate the dees What about up and comers? In racing there's of course always the possibility of a new star coming along and usurping the current class horses. Are there any such contenders in the AFL? The historical evidence (another important data point in horse racing) is that it is relatively rare for a team to come from outside the 8 and make top 4 the next season. Not impossible but rare. That knocks 10 teams out of being a top 4 contender Of course more common for teams who made the 8 to take the next step and make the top 4. Can one of the blues, swans, giants or saints make the top 4? Absolutely. And port can stay in the top 4 too of course (and I think will). But applying my form equation none of those teams' record over the last three season makes for a compelling argument. And looking at last season's form only the blues and giants make a strong case for taking the next step and finishing top 4. On the dees key competitors I largely agree with Little Goffy's excellent assessment. I really rate the giants and hard to argue with the blues form. So both a chance for a top 4 finish. I can't see swans or saints making it Port finished top 4 and I think if Hinkley can implement a modern defensive system will do so again. Another factor to consider is class. In both horse racing and footy class is more subjective than form (on form the record is the record(. Personally i would argue we have the best list in the AFL (lions, port, pies, giants next). And i also think we have the most balanced list of say the top 10 teams in terms of the balance and spread of age and experience (pies, port, giants next). So in totality what does that mean from a punters form perspective? The dees are very likely to make the top 4, as are the lions and pies. The dees are very unlikely to miss the 8. I haven't looked at the current betting markets for top 4 and top 8 They would have nothing in the pools and futures betting is a mug's game (they may not even have them up yet). But they would be the most accurate assessment as the prices are set by the professional analysts bookmakers employ and are yet to be influenced by the market (ie punters betting). If I was to set a market/price for the dees it would be: Top 4 finish: $2.50 Top 8 finish: $1.40 (winx says hello)

It was hard NOT to know in 2021. All through the finals series - and way beyond - the joint was decked out in red and blue. One of Christian's brothers also has a cafe in Church Street Brighton towards the Nepean Highway end. The premiership cup turned up there one time. The family resemblance is unmistakeable.

Winning a flag is tough. It's too high a benchmark to set. In my opinion, Top 4, and winning a final are our benchmarks. From there if we win a flag then it's a bonus. But making the Prelim should be the minimum goal for the team. Not winning the flag won't be a failure.

Now that's some meat we can all chew on! Adelaide I disagree; they had 17 players play 20+ games in 2023, which is ridonkulus team stability. A 'good' season would see 12. That included all 4 of their over 30yr players; Sloan, Walker, Laird and Smith, which is a handy quartet of veterans to say the least! I think they are at their peak already and will hover for a while, in the competetive range, but not excel. GWS & Carlton are similar propositions to each other in that they both came good late in the year but haven't quite proven themselves yet. Strange to think that Carlton fans were on the 'sack Voss' bus early in the year. Both teams fluctuate wildly within and between seasons. Either could dominate everything or not even make the 8. Brisbane are professional competitors with an excellent, balanced and mature list. Only a grand final hangover could explain them dropping very much. Sydney have all kinds of firepower and flair but they finished 8th for a reason; their record against other finalists includes a win over the early season misery version of the Blues, and a win over the Giants. That's it. They had a 3-ply soft draw, with the Demons and Giants the only top-8 teams they played twice. Collingwood don't deserve to be allowed to take the field, but their lawyers ensure they'll be back. Melbourne, Collingwood and Brisbane are the core contenders and go into on level standing. Several others may menace if they get momentum going.

On the same topic I also spoke last week when in Melb to Christians Dad while at their very popular North Rd. Cafe. Very encouraging report on Christians health and fitness. Let’s say he is winding back his effort after a huge start to balance out the pre season. Is well above last 2 pre seasons and back in 2021 territory. Let’s hope he can return to that as he was very instrumental in our success as part of that superbly tuned backline that kick started our attack. We need that back again to connect down field successfully in 2024.

I’m a fan of Chin. First half of the year he displayed his value with a very good level of defensive play and kicking goals. He was always busy in and around the play. He seemed to tire with a full season at AFL level. Hopefully with more AFL experience he will run out a full season.

Make or break year. Not sure that he has got it!

R1 B: McVee, May, Lever HB: Rivers, Tomlinson, Bowey C: Langdon, Oliver, Hunter HF: Petracca, van Rooyen, Neal-Bullen F: Fritsch, Petty, McAdam FOLL: Gawn, Brayshaw, Viney IC: Salem, Sparrow, Billings, Spargo SUB: Chandler EMERG: Woewodin, Howes, Turner Casey B: Hore, Turner, Adams HB: Howes, Schache, Freeman (Casey) C: Woewodin, Laurie, Windsor HF: Tholstrup, McDonald, Sestan F: Jefferson, B. Brown, Moniz-Wakefield FOLL: Fullerton, White (Casey), Grey (Casey) IC: Verrall, Farris-White, K. Brown, Steele (Casey), 23rd man (Casey) SUS: Pickett, Smith INJ: Melksham

If he plays he will (and can) play half forward and up at stoppage similar to ANB I suggest. He is taller than Chandler and PIckett and ANB only has 3 centimetres on him. He has shown this preseason that he has built endurance (only behind Tomlinson and ANB in time trial) and whilst not quick he is not slow and makes quick decisions. I have not written him off surprising a few in 2024 and if he does that will be the role its in.

Gee I stank this year. Eagles, Cowboys, Bucs

4 Rams make the Pro Bowl. AD99 of course. Stafford. Kyren Williams - well deserved, missed 4 games and is 370yrds of McCaffrey’s rushing season, for a second year player who missed played 10 games last year, two of which he didn’t see any action. And the rookie sensation Puka Nacau!!! I love this kid! What a season.

It’s all fixed now, his breeches have been breached!

Touche!

And hopefully it's the filth that drops out to accommodate them.

Petracca, Gawn, Fritsch and May all more important than Brayshaw IMO.

Yes it will considering our talent.

What a bunch of nonsense words! This is what you get when you copy and paste content from one of those writing and grammar apps: a word salad that leaves the reader clueless about what the author has written. Did you actually check what you wrote before you posted? God forbid if you did.

Is it as good as this?

Send me your address, you’ll receive your reward in 3-5 business days.

Okay.

Would like to see Rivers in the middle as much as possible this year.

Our 3 most important players are Petracca, Gawn and May.......I'm in no way saying your 3 aren't important but lose Petracca, Gawn and or May and we're done. As a lifelong Dee's optimist this season leaves me feeling a little flat. I was certain of success last year and those finals hurt more than any others apart from the 87 Prelim. We are responsible for a Pies flag and only a flag will heal my pain.

I'm glad You were able to predict that Petty, Fritsch, Brown and Melksham would all be injured, that we would kick horribly for goal, that Brayshaw would be smashed in a shocking incident and that JVR would be suspended for the second final, because without all of these occurrences happening we would NOT have exited in straight sets. Nostradamus: move over!!

Rinse repeat. BLWNBA replied to Gawndy the Great's topic in Melbourne Demons Dees will miss the top 8. September 24, 2022

This is just a thread for optimists versus pessimists.

Ta. In punting parlance, on my assessment $3 for the dees to to make the top 4 is overs. And $3 for the blues to make top 4 is unders. And on my assessment $9 for the dees to win the flag is well and truly overs. I would have us as second favorites, behind the Pies, to the the win the flag at $6.50. By the by i think we will win the flag.

While I tend to be a bit on the glass-half-full side of things, I'd prefer a few more glass-half-empty posters in place of the couple of glass-completely-empty posters we seem to have.

Slide out of the 8? Seriously get off the crack pipe.

You’re obviously in complete difference to the experts at the Club. JT and Lambie saw what we have seen ( you have missed ) in small doses admittedly so far but his injuries have definitely hindered his progress. I thought his last quarter vs Swans in Sydney in Round22 was his best AFL form but was not really on song in the QF vs Pies. Has this year to make his mark and looks super fit for the first time and I hope he gets a good run at it. Half forward or maybe in the centre or on ball are spots he would be suited to in a role that Sam Mitchell made his own for the Hawks. Wish him all the best as he competes with McAdam Billing’s Spargs ANB Kolt and even Kossie so he will have earned it if he succeeds. While not fast he has very good skills and disposal is one of them.

McCaffrey rules out of Rams game, and a few lesser names. I won’t do my tip to the last min to see who is in and out. Last week always sucks dude to players sitting out or sitting halfway into the game. Is he surprised if Wentz didn’t play at least a 1/4 on the weekend.

I am sure he understands but he has only had one preseason - are your observations based on this preseason or last playing season?

Well, after a few weeks of total, well, boredom on this site, haven't things hotted up quickly in this thread? For some years, IMV people have rated out list really highly -as they should - but have forgotten that a couple of other teams had good lists as well. I think ours stacks up against anyone's. McQualter will be a great addition. Our forward line has dramatically improved thanks to some more recruiting brilliance. I am immensely confident. And to be honest, I would hate to go into a football season with anything but confidence and optimism.

We've invested heavily in fixing our biggest weakness (both with players and coaching acquisition) and our list overall is stronger and deeper than 2023, with the sole exception of the ruck. We were 3 points and 8 points from winning each of our finals, including against the eventual premier, in difficult circumstances and with our forward line thrashed by injury. I don't see how anyone could seriously think we're not a credible contender going into 2024.

I’m a year that ended with such frustration, I think both wingers will be under the microscope this preseason. We’ve got a few young guys pushing hard for game time and there will have to be changes to our method, meaning defensive running isn’t the sole focus for that position. Hunter and Langdon will be one of the more intriguing stories heading into the ‘24 season

Can't believe Grey has gone. Casey will be unrecognisable with Grey and Munro no longer around.