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I am lucky to have a close contact with access to a lot of AFL statistics (the same data set the clubs generally have available to them ). I asked him to do some digging on the Dees' season, in particular looking for anything that would prove useful in helping us all understand where things have gone wrong this year. In no particular order, this is what he found: There's been a lot of discussion about injuries, and lately, Richmond and Collingwood fans complaining they have it the worst of all. The data says we have averaged 6.5 'best 22' players missing over the first 19 rounds of the season; in total we have missed 117 'best 22' games. Richmond have averaged 5.11 (92 total), while Collingwood have averaged 3.94 (71 total). This highlights Richmond's depth as stronger than both Melbourne or Collingwood - they've got guys like Caddy running around in the VFL while we have...JKH/Dunkley/Lockhart and Coll have Daicos/Brown etc. Looking at the round by round breakdown of this - you can see that this number (# of best 22 injured) correlates strongly with form. Richmond's injuries have improved markedly since the bye and their form has peaked. Collingwood's have been unlucky with injury since the bye and they have been ordinary. Of course we've been ordinary for the whole year... When you break this down by position it confirms what we know - our midfield has stayed pretty much full strength all year, but the forward and backline have had either 3.77 best 22 players missing on average (fwd line) or 2.6 best 22 players missing on average (backline). The impact on both ends of the grounds shouldn't be underestimated and suits the narrative of our year - unable to score, unable to defend inside 50s, but still ok at generating our own (pre-game plan change in the last couple of weeks). Goodwin keeps trotting out that we've had no continuity at either end of the ground - and he's right. I've attached these two breakdowns to this post. Don't pay much attention to sirswampthing's post highlighting that Collingwood have the most 'games played' on the injuries list. Break that out and 750 of those games are from players outside the best 22 / retiring (e.g Wells, Beams, Goldsack etc.). Misleading and clickbait for the biggest supporter base. Out of players who have played at least 10 games, Frost and OMac are the two who have cost us the most scores as a % of their turnovers. Frost is ranked 12th in the league (1st = a really bad thing), conceding a score 34% of the time he turns it over, resulting in 17 shots at goal (9 goals 8 ) directly from his turnovers. Omac is ranked 15th in the league, conceding a score 33% of the time. Bailey Fritsch has cost us the most amount of points from turnovers this year. His 66 turnovers for the year (ranked equal 94th in the league) have cost us 89 points directly, which is ranked 4th in the comp. We all love his skills; but his turnovers hurt us. We're better with him camped inside 50 and our increased efficiency over the last 3 weeks is in no small part due to having a natural forward like him back in the 50. In order of worst to best, the top 8 players who have hurt us the most and have resulted in an overall negative score from turnovers and intercepts combined are: Fristch, Omac, Frost, Hibberd, Hore, Brayshaw, Salem, J Wagner. Other than Fritsch and Brayshaw this isnt surprising; our defenders can't kick. Salem has had more ball than any of these guys but is 7th on the list; so he is the best kick we have in the D50 (other than Jones when he plays there). Conversely, the players who have generated the most scores from intercepts, while keeping their turnovers to a minimum, and to have played at least 10 games, are: Jones, Petracca, Gawn, Oliver, Viney (Surprising!), Lockhart, Hunt, Tmac, Harmes. James Harmes is the only player at the Dees ranked in the top 50 (49th) for average handball receives per game, which is an indicator of outside run. For context, Richmond have 6 players in the top 50; Collingwood have 8. Petracca is mostly accurate everywhere: he is 10.8 from set shots, 5.1 on the run, 4.3 from snaps, 1.0 from mark play on, 1.0 off the ground. 5.0 from <15m, 4.4 from 15-30m, 2.2 from 31-40m, 7.4 from 41-50m, 3.2 from 50m+. He's above AFL average in all these categories, with exception of 15-30m and 31-40m kicking, which is bang on AFL average. Harmes is not accurate from anywhere. He has 3.3 from <15m, an awful 2.6 from 31-40m and 4.8 from 41-50m. Against Richmond, 14 players had less than one tackle. This was widely discussed. However, it wasn't from lack of effort. We had more tackle attempts than Richmond, but went at 25% efficiency. Poor technique, not strong enough, lazy, mentally checked out, who knows. The loss of Hogan on Tom Mac and Wiedeman should not be understated. Last year, Weideman played 3 good games - vs. West Coast in Rd 22, then Geelong in the EF and Hawks in the SF. His opponents in those games based on most % of gametime were: Brad Sheppard (HBFer, not a KPD), Lachie Henderson and David Mirra. This year, Weideman has had 3 games of 'good' output, 2 pass marks and 6 poor matches. The 3 good games he played on: Jacob Weitering, Aaron Francis, Jack Watts. Decent names but not A grade defenders by any means. The pass mark games, he played on Darcy Moore and Tom Mccartin. The poor games, he played on Harris Andrews, Griffin Logue/Joel Hamling, Alex Keath, David Astbury, Nathan Brown/Josh Battle, Mark Blicavs. Basically, when he played on good or experienced opponents, he's not much chop. Now lets look at who Tom Mac towelled up last year on his way to 50 goals: Patrick Ambrose, Jack Carlisle, Rory Thompson, Sam Rowe, Myles Poholke, Jason Johannisen, Matt Scharenberg, Dougal Howard, Jackson Trengove, Josh Jenkins, Tom Barrass, Lachlan Keefe, James Frawley. This is a who's who of average defenders/mismatches save for Barrass and Frawley (dont ask about Jenkins; perhaps Tom went back that day? I can't remember). This year Tom Mac has had to play on Tom Jonas, Mark Blicavs, Phil Davis, Daniel Talia and so on. The only defender he towelled up was Liam Jones. His best games were against Jones, Oscar Allen, Aliir Aliir. This info is available to the coaching staff. If they haven't looked at this and realised that our two KPF hopes are not capable of playing on top line defenders and that we need a key fwd to take the heat off these guys, then you have to wonder what they are doing. Oscar Mcdonald has only had one 'good' performance this year - against Nick Blakey. He has been beaten by: Josh Jenkins, Shaun McKernan, Tom Papley (mismatch), Paddy Ryder and Josh Corbett. Frost has beaten: Tom Lynch (Rich, early on), Levi Casboult, Josh Bruce, Jarryd Roughead, and Jack Lukosius. Has been beaten by: Lance Franklin, Jeremy Cameron, Jack Darling, Jack Riewoldt, Eric Hipwood. Angus Brayshaw played 90% of his time on ground last year in the midfield. This year, that is down to 60%. He has spent 24% of his time on the wing, 16% in the forward line. Of our top 5 centre bounce attendees, Brayshaw was also our most effective centre square player we had last year across a number of measures: Clearance differential (19.4, ahead of next best Harmes 11.2), Inside 50 differential (18.8, ahead of next best Oliver/Viney both 12.5) and scoring differential (8.1, ahead of next best 6.7 Viney). Brayshaw was involved in 345 centre square clearances last year. This year he is down to 215. Forgetting the top 5 attendees for a moment, our best centre bounce player by a huge margin is....Jake Melksham. His clearance differential is 31.4, next best is Petracca (16.7), then Jones, and then to Brayshaw and the rest of the regular crew. Of course, Melkham's data is perhaps limited by sample size. Melksham ranks 17th in our side for actual centre bounce attendances, whilst Petracca ranks 10th. The two are our most effective centre bounce players. Brayshaw is one of our best; but he is being played out of position. There are of course weaknesses in all of these statistics - they never tell the full story, there are subjective categorisations applied to 'good/pass mark/bad' and 'best 22' - but I found some of the above quite interesting. For me, what stands out is that the FD thought Tom Mac & Weid were ready to replace Hogan's output, but the warning signs were there if they were to look at the data. We miss his ability to draw the best defender, his presence all around the ground, and his general offensive skillset. No use crying about it now; but given this data is available to the club I find it disappointing they sat on their hands and thought the forward line was sorted even with his departure. Discuss!

Langdon, Anderson AND Hill WILL be Demons in 2019 - barring a major hiccup. Langdon is across the line - Suns taking Rowel it’s a Monty.. Hill only talking to Dees & Hawks, fact! But word is our offer to a Freo is far superior (likely 2nd rnd & pick swaps maybe young player). Also some spec around that it may also involve Langdon & Jetta but that’s just too early on to know. Both Brayshaws receiving spec both ways also yet odds are astronomical either gets moved. Anderson is the light at the end of a shitty tunnel of a year, No chance we are trading the pick unless it’s super deal ie 2 for Hill AND Langdon, even then we’d want a top 15 pick back by throwing in 2nd rnder.

I think they already are, can't just be coincidence that Geelong have gone to [censored] after norf got rid of their Scott??

If jumping to conclusions were an Olympic sport, the gold, silver and bronze medallists are all posting in this thread.

This means we beat Colliingwood this weekend..... Thats what it means yeah? Please tell me thats what it means? Please. *twitch *scratch

“He is one of my best mates and it has been a privilege to work so closely with him.” The pair have formed a tight relationship during their time together, as McCartney helps bring the best out of those around him. “The impact that Macca has had on the entire football department, including the playing group, has been profound,” Goodwin said. “He is an incredible person and the club has been extremely lucky to have someone of his calibre.” Think this puts to bed that he wasn't getting on with the Coach. I also believe that this is Brendan's choice and he is looking for a change, so not a bad move by the MFC at all.

Some coaches just don't make great senior coaches for some reason, Alan Richardson is a great bloke, great football person and would be a tremendous asset to the MFC. i suspect though Macca leaving won't be the only change. i'm thinking it'll be a pretty significant shake up with several coaches and staff members moving on. it also shouldn't be lost that Macca has made a very positive contribution to the club in his development role, and no doubt the early career form of Petracca, Brayshaw and Oliver to name a few can in part be credited to his coaching.

Supporters did their bit

Would love to get Michael Voss in as a midfield/stoppage coach. how good would it be to have Voss to team guys like Brayshaw and Oliver?

And if that's the case then only 20,000 of 100,000 Richmond members turned up, same ratio. And their team is pushing for top 4!

good summation

Some pretty poor comments as usual from the usual parrots. All the best to Macca and thanks for the hard work. Did some nice work with harmes and others. There aren't always hsopy/fairytale endings in footy

The question is pretty obvious and I'm sure I'm not the only one who has this thought creeping around in the back of my mind. What would it take to push the Demons back into the top ranks in 2020? I'm trying to think of specific things which can be identified and realistically hoped for, things that might each be worth one extra goal for or one less goal against, per game. I'll knock off some of the obvious ones but I'm keen to hear what specific other things people think could be added to create the rebound. 1. Lever & May get full pre-seasons and play a stable year together as our main talls in defence. 2. Tom McDonald regains form. 3. Burgess successfully implements a fitness program that has us running out final quarters at least on break-even terms with our opponents. 4. Melksham, Fritsch and Petracca get organised into a consistently effective half-forward group. 5. Our core midfielders work out better spacing, shepherding, and other 'fundamentals' at stoppages which allows for smarter, calmer ball movement. Damn that's a lot of obvious things to start with!

She has never let facts stand in the way of her 'argument'. She has always had ulterior motives and carried a chip on her shoulder. Particularly when it has come to the Demons.

Can they run the ladder on an Ex cats and dogs , $1 Stkilda membership package basis) - and i’d think we do even better ! relative to the statistics for memberships to supporters ratio ( we only have around 200k) supporters vs Swans who have something like 1.2million IIRC we would have to be the most die hard , rusted on fans in the AFL , given the amount of [censored] we have had to put up with for years (if not decades) also factoring in the high MCC member proportion of MFC supporters. They can say what they like about our lack of success , but when people like Caro have a crack for only 38k turning up on Saturday night, I find the fairweather supporters tag really unjustified to a very resilient group of fans , I mean just look at the hawks attendence levels this year compared to their membership numbers

There it is! The historically most exciting (and comfortable) time of the year for a Melbourne supporter! That's not to say I don't love the speculation and inside info - I absolutely do. Good stuff, Nudge. Christ I hope you're right!

Right on, Picket! I blame Viney Snr for that. It was his job to fix it! He has to go IMV!!!!

Thought his days were numbered after the mid season reshuffle - particularly given that our forward line set up, especially for the first half of the season, was diabolical. I like McCartney, and I appreciate his contributions to the club, but it’s clear some changes need to be made. Would be very happy to see Alan Richardson in this role.

Woooohoooo that was really pointless playing an injured player without a runner who just stands there and doesnt run. (sounds like a footy team i know). Forever to be remembered as The Specsavers Test.

Awesome new to hear that Gus will be at the club next year. Like many good talented players that have great careers, sometimes they have a year or 2 in a dip of form. Gus will bounce back strongly next year.

Head chocolatier?

At worst we can expect this.

It was reported earlier in the year from a poster in the know that he needed surgery on both hips at the end of the season. I suspect this may not have helped him with his form over the year.

They should be doing a lot better. If you consider the amount of hit-outs and hit-outs to advantage Gawny gives us, then look at how many clearances we record per game, it becomes blatantly obvious that there is a huge disconnect between our ruck and mids. If only Max could rove his own taps.................

Bayley Fritsch is the ?

Surely next year we will be up another 8k?

Ok , it means we will beat the Pies!

Hnmm I reckon in society and for that matter any organization you need to be realistic, tough , honest and be able to deliver constructive criticism when its needed As a society we have become a soft , gaumless and largely welcoming entity for all shades of grey. This is why we have rampant crime, hideous debt, and morals that stink to the high heaven. All in the name of self fulfiling accomodation of every zebra that won't grow stripes. Hardness , pride, respect for authority and doing things without fuss or arguement Yep that's the name of the game I reckon. Yeah I'm Old school, and glad that I am! How would Norm Smith go with coaching now Eh??

Credited with Clarry Choo Choo's development as well!

A great example of the pot calling the kettle black.

If we were relevant: we wouldn’t sell games to the NT we would have a home base we would not allow GCS to get picks 1 and 2 this year. scrutiny would have been applied at round 6, not 20 we would get a fair go or even an armchair ride from the umps ’nuff said?

McCartney has brought a wealth of knowledge to the club, and helped the players and coaches immensely, but the time is right for change. I believe Macca was acting rogue in some match day games and ignoring Goody's instructions as he believed he was the 'older, wiser head'. Hence the move out of the coaches box and onto the interchange bench. If there is a fracture in the coaching group, this will trickle down into the players causing a divide. Hopefully our new assistants will all be onboard with Goody's plan moving forward and bring a united coaching and playing group for 2020 and beyond.

The issue is with the Viney family and Mahoney, find a scapegoat here and there, time to go to the root of the problem, executing some Joe Blow as a sacrificial lamb, that’s going to help, business as usual, what a laughing stock this club is.

Pity we couldn’t get Ratten back a year or so ago. He knows the midfield so well. That said Richo would be a great asset. He beat us often as a coach.

A few people here unfamiliar with the concepts of either: A) Contracts And/or B) The footy department salary cap Not all of Rawlings, Chaplin, Mathews, Plapp etc will be going. Nor should they be. This is still the coaching group that had us playing some very good footy last year.

Caro Wilson putting the boot in? How very surprising. She should retire, buy a cake shop and spend the rest of her life making halloween biscuits.

ALLEGEDLY.....Macca had a falling out with 2 senior players and that created a divide among the others. It got to the point where several senior players wouldn't acknowledge him at all. Don't shoot me. I'm only the piano player...

Agreed. 5 year deal.

Now we go to Lords where we have a very good record. With fresh quicks at the ready. We get a good break (with a 3 day match against Worcester in between) The Lords Test begins on Wednesday 14th. England will be shell-shocked. I doubt they'll be able to recover. Their top order isn't good enough against our bowlers and their renowned late middle order has met their match in Lyon. And they have no idea how to dismiss Smith. If Warner can find his best form look out. It all points towards Australia retaining the Ashes. Win the next one and the urn is as good as ours (to retain)

Will be interesting to see the headlines in the English papers after that debacle. Fortress Edgbaston. Hah! Well done Aussies.

Yeah baby. Australia ??

I see the Kangas are into Goldstein, interesting..

Good to see the lobotomy is helping you get through this year. ☺️

Wouldn't be surprised if Rawlings leaves or is poached, seems to be highly rated in AFL circles and wouldn't blame him if he's annoyed at being moved around when he wanted to run his own team. Hope he stays of course.

Allan Richardson is on our radar. https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/richardson-on-melbourne-s-radar-20190805-p52e46.html

Didn’t Oscar play his school footy as a forward? Why not throw him down there and May back if he’s back in. May as well coz his confidence is shot as a defender at the moment. Goody said in his presser that he’s throwing some players around to see what flexibility they may have to offer.