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Part of me hopes we lose on Friday night. If we do I'll return to that familiar place of despair to wit I've become so accustomed. The MFC institutionalized me long ago and last year became almost uncomfortable as expectations rose. A loss on Friday night returns me to a comfort zone I've come to rely on. Like an old friend, I find a warmness in the familiarity of abject misery. Either way, I'm a winner this Friday.

Not many MFC supporters like you. If Essendon beat us, the Psychologists in Malvern, Camberwell, Brighton, Aireys Inlet will be booked out for a month. We easily forget that the best/safest coaches in the comp (Clarko, Buckley, Hardwick) had rough apprenticeships and had to grow, learn and transform on the job. Tick to the club for extending Goodwin. He will get better AND Adelaide would have come knocking because Pike is a bad trot away from being under the microscope.

I'll panic if we're 0-5. Far too much football to play to hit the panic button just yet.

No, I don't mistake it. We all process things differently. As I said in another thread, my tendency in the moment is to get incredibly frustrated and to blow off steam. But it then doesn't take me long to want to analyse where it all went wrong and how we can change things next week. That's how I deal with it and I'm not going to begrudge you for how you deal with it. I'm not a religious person, but there is certainly a parallel between religion and my love of my football club. I go every week and I am so fully invested on a complete faith basis. I have to have faith that my football club will come through in the end and that the journey to get there would never be as fulfilling without all the [censored]. It's why in the past I have despised bandwagoners. As I've got older, I've understood some people have better things to do with themselves, but I love footy. And I love my club. Being a Melbourne supporter is truly resilience-building and it's funnily enough something I'm very proud of. That my family and I have stuck thick through all this [censored]. Without being overly dramatic, it's why Demonland offers my religion so much. It offers a place of community and mutual understanding of the football trauma we've suffered. I hope we can all one day experience what almost every other club has in recent memory and it will be so sweet, to stick it up all those doubters and all those smarmy opposition supporters and clubs, who over the years have had so little respect (and rightly so) for Melbourne. These thoughts continue my faith in the Melbourne Football Club and that's how I deal with defeat. I'll get this published by Penguin. Another bloody book from me. Apologies everyone.

Here's an interesting alternative. Forget locking it inside 50, forget bombing it in to create a stoppage... How about a forward leads and we kick it to him. He then kicks a goal. Simple strategy but we struggle with it.

One guy I'm not worried about in the slightest.

Oliver is a beautiful kick, but clearly our plan was to bomb the ball forward quickly and create a spillage (or offensive mark), or/and then get to the foot of the contest. Problem is, we didn't do the last part. And when we managed to get to the foot of the contest, we weren't clean. I was at the ground and this bombing inside 50 game was so evidently a directive from the coaches box. It seemed to happen even more when Clarry went crazy in the last quarter, which to me says that we wanted to keep playing our system at all costs and at the end of the night, we just didn't work hard enough to lock the ball inside forward 50. That said, some of Clarry's kicks went to 2 on 1s. He can get better (like the rest of our mids and forwards) at kicking to the advantage of forwards. However, I can't think of a better kick for an inside midfielder in the competition.

This time last year, Buckley was about to get fired with Collingwood 0-2 in 16th spot and instead grew a beard in readiness for his impending life as a hermit! Now he is coaching the side seemingly most likely to win a flag and keeps the beard as his lucky charm! Lets just wait and keep the shrinks office free for at least a little while longer. Maybe Goody should grow a beard?

I don't think our situation is anywhere near as bad as it seems. Our aim is to win the Premiership, to do this we need to beat a WCE or Colliingwood in GF, to be able do this we need to to win at least two finals and to do this we need to win at least 12/13 games with healthy percentage. We can win the next 3 while improving to then take on Richmond for Anzac Eve and then we are 4 - 2 and back on track, with Lever, J Smith, Vanders and Hannan to work back in and establish in our best 22. All is not lost.

We have the memory of the excitement of those two finals match and the belief that we were seeing the future. An exciting team with a brave coach going places. We forgot the Perth game, thinking it was an aberration that would be erased. We had a coach that said as much by admitting that they had not talked about THAT game. The warmth of summer and the comfort zone of the track and the reports of good things are now behind us and we entered the Ides of March with the hope that we would see the continuing emergence of our once great footy club as a power in the land. That we had a coach and a bunch of players who would rewrite our history, who could take us on a magical journey to finals and flags. We took pride in reading media reports and walked into the G for the first match with a spring in our step and a wonderful feeling of excitement and anticipation. Unfortunately, we forgot that there were 17 other clubs all with the opportunity, talent and commitment to create their own history. After 2 matches and the vision of many more via TV, we see the talent of other clubs and the competitive nature of their game. Christ almighty, there are at least 10 to 12 clubs that have improved or are still competitive and are capable of beating us. We see midfields as good as ours, defensive and forward zones that are better than ours, outside runners that are quicker than ours, teams that have less injuries and are fitter than ours, teams that are taller than ours, and game plans that seem more effective than ours. Suddenly, the draw and finals footy looks like a mountain. Even playing Essendon with zero wins and media ridicule, we look shaky. Every game looks ominous. We no longer look like we will dominate and all we have seen to-date are two teams that dominated us. We look second rate and at times simply embarrassing. At the start of the season we thought we had a good chance to be 2-0 or at least 1-1. We thought our strength of character and team spirit would be on display at Geelong. Well we did have more inside 50s than the Cats, but we were still beaten by a whopping 80 points. I am sorry but I cannot see any positives from the Geelong match. We roll our eyes with the comments of captain and coach. We have heard the words all before. How can a team that loses by 80 points turn it around in 6 days, with injuries and players underdone. We have the realization that individuals are not the answer. Petracca, May, KK, Preuss etc. Even Maxy for all his super powers can be nullified. The thought of losing to the Bombers is unthinkable but a real prospect. I don't know what the answer is. There is no doubt that our preseason injuries and fitness levels have affected us. Many players are underdone. But the competitive nature of the competition means that we need to rediscover our mojo very quickly. If we go 0-5 down, it will almost be season over. Players confidence will be rock bottom. However, sudden turnarounds are possible. But the players will need to believe in themselves, believe in the team, believe in the coach and believe in the game plan. And believe that we can and will win.

How did you work that out, Nostradamus?

IS INSIDE 50 DOMINANCE A STRATEGY TO EXPLOIT? In 2013, on 13 July, Geelong beat Melbourne in the inside 50 count by (70-19)1. Geelong also easily won the game. This hurt and embarrassed Melbourne. But Melbourne learnt a lot from this. Fast forward to 7 September 2018, Elimination Final, Melbourne v Geelong. Melbourne dominated with a +17 inside 50 count2. Melbourne famously won the game. This famous victory of Melbourne over Geelong in the 2018 Elimination Final inflicted hurt and embarrassment on Geelong. Good. GO DEES! But Geelong also took some learning from this... Yesterday (Saturday 30 March 2019) at Kardinia Park, Melbourne again smashed Geelong in the inside 50 count by (72-48), but this time, Melbourne staggeringly, lost the game by 80 points. The Melbourne Football Club is again hurting and the learning necessarily continues. These are not isolated incidents and Melbourne has lost other recent games after regularly dominating the inside 50 count. These losses whilst dominating the inside 50 count need examination. Melbourne’s conundrum of yesterday is not isolated: Gold Coast also smashed West Coast yesterday in the inside 50 count (62-46) but Gold Coast lost the game by 52 points. How can AFL football sides be so dominant in the inside 50 count and still lose? Simon Goodwin touched on this regarding what the MFC needs to do to address this in his press conference yesterday after the game: We had 72 entries which is a lot, and we need to connect better forward of centre. We need to win more contests ahead of the ball. We need need to move the ball better in a way that's going to connect better to maximise those entries. These are astute observations, as usual, from Goodwin. However, Jude Bolton focussed the attention on how Geelong used Melbourne’s inside 50 dominance to their advantage: The ability of the Cats midfielders to spread and get on the outside and really start to pick away this Demon’s outfit particularly off the half backline - I thought they were able to stymie any offence moving forward and then just cut them on the way back3 Leigh Matthews was even more specific: If the ball is locked in the 50 metre line for a while you might get a crumb and goal. But basically its hard to set up goals actually if the defence is set. So basically the best way to score is to allow the opposition to go into the backline, do this, mark it and run it out of defence whilst the opposition is out of position.4 Matthew’s comments in this particular case align with some of my ideas. Anyway, I was there at Kardinia Park yesterday. I saw it all with my many vocal and supportive fellow Melbourne supporters under the rain on seats adjacent to the half forward flank. The game was a spectacle of Melbourne’s 72 (or was it 73) forward 50 entries mostly repelled by a Geelong defence well prepared to do so. Geelong then took full advantage of an open football field and their players were regularly well organised and able to receive so many uncontested possessions on the way to link possessions on the way to far too many easy goals. This was extremely frustrating to witness. A rare highlight was the unforgettable moment of 1st gamer Jay Lockhart and his brilliant 1st AFL goal (You Byooty!) in the 1st quarter which put us in front and raised us to our feet, elicited a grand collective yell of celebration and engendered a real sense of belief. Long may Lockhart prosper with the MFC! I also feel it necessary to say that you cannot doubt the collective Melbourne players effort yesterday. They were as usual voraciously fierce at the contest and delivered the ball to the forward line on an excitingly regular occasion. I think the reason goals were not scored once the ball was in the forward 50 line was less a matter of effort and more a matter of strategy. Sun Tzu (in “The Art of War”) said: Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.5 Geelong may or may not have used this Tzu strategy, but they certainly prepared a defence accepting Melbourne’s forward 50 strength, and allowed Melbourne to deliver the ball into their defensive 50 knowing that defending that area was Melbourne’s strength and carefully prepared for multiple counter attacks in open spaces once Melbourne made mistakes. Will Tzu provide the MFC strategists with some new and helpful ideas? It’s only round 2, but maybe these ideas will help the Melbourne Football club to continue its climb and improve again this year as it has done for the last 5 years. GO DEES! References: 1. http://sit.geelongadvertiser.com.au/article/2013/07/13/369199_gfc.html 2. http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/24601335/afl-melbourne-demons-vs-geelong-cats-there-no-finals-demons-melbourne 3. “Game Day” broadcast on HSV7 television, Sunday 31 March 4. “Game Day” broadcast on HSV7 television, Sunday 31 March 5. Sun Tzu, c. 512 BC “The Art of War”

There are no givens in sport, and much of what happens is beyond anyone's control (e.g. injuries/luck, your opponent's injuries/luck). Acceptable or not doesn't come into it. If as a club we do everything we need to to get to the finals, and we still don't, then so be it. Though I still think many here are seriously underestimating the impact of our non-preseason. Not in terms of player match fitness (though that's certainly a factor), but in terms of team play. If training together as a team wasn't important, players could just train their fitness individually then meet up at the club before each match. What we're currently seeing is exactly what you'd expect for a team that has had limited time *together*.

This..... We are simply down in confidence, get a win on the board and we will be flying. There almost seems to be percieved pressure with all of our players rushing their disposal since the prelim slaughter. It will click soon and we will be a very strong team again. Oh and the calvary will arrive too, lever, VDB, hannan, may & jeffy (still have hope for him) will make this team a lot stronger across all areas.

Nothing like starting Monday morning with a good dose of demonland to cheer me up.

One of the issues of our game-plan - forward territory/forced contested - is that we create our own flood against while exposing our back-line. This is obviously an accepted compromise from the footy department, with I believe the view that if we can improve efficiency just slightly at both ends - say two goals each way on average - we'll come out on top. Yet, as you say, we'll continue to struggle against teams which deliberately set-up to counter this and have the applicable attributes to do so. Goody, and Roos before him, are not reactive or interested in the opposition or what the opposition might be planning/doing to counter us. It's always about our brand - executing the way we want to play. We're still have the training-wheels on. Yet, coaches like Scott and Clarkson have footy nous combined with mature leaders and a win at all costs mentality. Hopefully we'll get there, but I don't think it's the players and footy department who are ahead of themselves - rather the fans. We thought we might be ready for a tilt, but the team is still being developed for a dynasty - under our current system. What's hard to fathom with the 666 is that when we get a clearance and bomb we still seem to be outnumbered or it goes directly to the opposition - I think demonstrating that our opponents are clearly playing against our style. If we insist on bombing it (and I accept that this is one part of the plan), then we need to sort out our forward patterns and inside bombing style. Kick it for touch. Or at least not the goal-square/40-45 meters directly out. The biggest problem right now is that we don't have the forward personnel for our style. No pack-markers and no crumb. Mid-fielders instead of half-forwards. A lack of opportunists and special talent. Slow and not particularly agile. And who's going to lead when they expect to be overlooked?

Love it. Great analogy.

Hello darkness my old friend

Literally the least of my worries. As close to a perfect player as they come. Two bung shoulders. No pre season. No worries.

For Fork's Sake, @Fork 'em - ? = Is the MFC actually using this as an excuse? Or is it supporters trying to make sense of things? There is no doubt 12 surgery's is a factor...

We were 2-3 last year, including a ten goal loss against an experienced team, and didn’t have too many issues making a preliminary final with a core one year younger than it is now.

I salute your reference!

Great posts. Re Melksham. He is the only effective forward because he is the only one with real experience as a forward at AFL level so has learnt his 'craft': Our other fwds on Saturday: Tom Mc (194cm) has played about 20 games as a forward @ AFL level ANB (182cm) isn't a forward; is there for defensive acts Sparrow (183 cm) who has good goal sense but is a defensive forward like ANB Petracca (186) is being played as a 'hybrid' on-baller/forward Weideman (195 cm) has played a handful of games. It is a hotch-potch forward group with little experience in 'forward craft' (notwithstanding they play good games occasionally). And it is all too 'vanilla' in height, size, skills, experience. To my mind 4 of the 6 need to be specialist forwards who are there to kick goals, are of differing height and skill sets to play together for whole games and develop understanding of each other's game and positioning to help our midfielders find them for the i50's coming in. The 4 also need to defend. The other 2 forward positions can be for a resting ruckman/midfielder and a defensive forward. But it seems our coaching panel prefer flexible/hybrid players to specialists. It takes time to develop 'forward craft' at AFL and cohesion among the group. Then we may see the best of Petracca. Sadly, until then CP5 will be the whipping boy on DL for the all ills in our forward line. Edit: Just saw this article where Nick Riewoldt says Petracca needs to learn forward 'craft' and how to get separation from defenders. Petracca has work to do which we all agree with but it also applies to all our forward line and the coaching/selection panel.

I agree. It's not just Petracca. Look at Tommy Mac, Weid, ANB. Look at the scoreboard. If we don't get some system down there 25 points in 3 quarters of football won't beat anyone. The only forward playing reasonably well at the moment is Melksham. A good team with system would simplify the game for Petracca and help him become a very good player, maybe in time a gun. If we are in for a bad year, lets not eat our own.

He roughed up and crunched Joel Selwood a couple of times. Thats enough for me to deserve another game next week.

Round 2 last year. How did Port, Suns, North and Adelaide go for the reminder of the year? Also, what about those 16th placed Pies and the 12th placed Tigers?

When is holding your ground, blocking? Poor Nev has been done twice in two weeks for blocking, ending in goals and all he did was have front position in a contest and hold his position with a ball coming in. This forced his opponent to try to jump over him to touch the ball. Pinged for blocking!!! Don’t get it.

My Better half said today " Lets go to the movies" Need to get you outa the house and moping about the Dees! I said "Ok What da ya wanna see" Sometimes Almost Never I said, sounds like the Melbourne football club 3 word Joeboy analysis life story of a Melbourne FC since 1964! Thankfully movie not that bad!! Unlike MFC Bill Nighy great actor hnmm wonder if he can play??

Demonland’s 2019 Home of Stats A bad time to get the ball rolling on 2019’s stats-file (and an obviously small sample) but hopefully we can keep this thread free of the usual so and so. Yes, stats never tell the full story. Yes, we all have eyes and can see what’s unfolding on the field. Yes, there’s only one stat that matter at the end of the day. But they can be a useful predictor to note trends and see which way things might be heading. Facebook isn’t worth $500 billion because of its advertising. Where there’s a negative stat – e.g. tackles against – it’s ranked in order of desirability; 18th being the most tackles against. Clearances – 1st Centre Clearances – 1st Contested Possessions – 2nd Tackles – 2nd Inside 50 – 5th Tackles i-50 – 1st CP Against – 18th Tackles against – 18th Uncontested Possessions – 18th UP Against – 14th Disposal Efficiency – 16th Turnovers – 17th Intercepts – 17th Clangers – 13th Contested Marks – 18th CM against – 9th Marks i-50 – 9th Notes: The three teams with the least number of kicks are the bottom three teams – the only such reliable indicator. Port and Geelong are 2nd and 3rd for clearances (and 1st and 4th for contested) but we’re only 12th for clearances against – indicating they could both well be particularly strong in this area. Both finished in the top six for contested and clearances last year. Summary: Despite not yet fully firing, the footy department would be pleased we’re still leading our key stat departments: contested, clearances, tackles. The decent number of inside-50 marks and tackles is a surprise (the latter perhaps highlighting our lack of crumb). We’re also forcing a contested battle as evidenced by the number of contested possessions and tackles against. Our skills are clearly letting us down though – with high turnovers, intercepts against and poor efficiency. We’re not a big uncontested possession team (9th last year) but ranking dead last is an issue – bombing forward and lacking or not finding run/options. Goodwin: we need better connection and to get the fundamentals (skill execution) right. We are no doubt still rusty. Also of concern, last year we were 2nd for contested marks and 3rd for intercepts – now bottom two for both. With Pedo and Hogan gone, Max struggling to get off the ground, Tmac out of sorts and Lever on the sidelines, we’re getting beaten in the air. Lever, Lewis and Smith were also among our top five intercepters last year – as well as Jetta who is well down on form. Next up: the Bombers are in the bottom-five for just about every category bar contested marks and clearances, both 7th, but interestingly they are last for centre-clearances and second for stoppages. Our previous two contests have been uneven affairs due to us having an extra day's rest on short-turnarounds – so I don’t think much can be read into the stats there. Go Dees!

Just watched the reel of Oliver's million disposals against the Cats. I haven't been game to watch the replay of the whole game but it strikes me that Oliver has absolutely magical hands in close BUT most of his kicks are just long bombs. If he had elite foot disposal as well he'd be the perfect package, more importantly, some forwards might move to some space and take marks. Then we might score goals instead of racking up totally useless 'Inside 50' stats. Get onto it, Simon, get on to it straight away...

Oliver is very good.. freakish in some respects. Has a bit of a way to go yet to pass Tulip. He might You obviously never saw Flower play

Has shown potential to be our most damaging kick alongside Melksham. But he's too good inside to find space for on the outside at present. He's played 60 games and won 25 contested possessions on the weekend, and I'm pretty sure he had a 50-plus possession game vs the Cats but some of of them were almost imperceptible. Neo's kicking will get sharper the more aware he becomes that he owns time.

I'm sure they had their moments. Just never used them as excuses.

Yep. even when we've been decent, we've been a mental basketcase. How 'bout 2001, when we went from Grand Finalists to 11th.

Yep, unfortunately where I'm at now. It worries me that a reasonably level-headed and reasonably positive football fan like yourself is at that stage, but how can we not be, after years of pathetic performances. And until we are consistent for more than one year (and I wouldn't even say 2018 was a consistent year), I don't think the club and its stakeholders could possibly/reasonably expect the supporter base to act or feel any differently.

Understand this is the Petracca thread, but my point is that in the current context, why does Petracca deserve his own thread and the others not. If the rest of the forwardline was performing well and he was the odd one out in not providing the expected output, then I'd understand. But that's not the case and thus I think it's quite unfair to single one player out above others. It's a saviour mentality that people expect him to carry the team on his back and be a match winner whilst the rest of the team around him plays like rubbish, all before he has really yet to establish himself with that level of capacity. Players take time to develop and mature. Anyone seriously consider that we should trade him should ask themselves - should Richmond have traded out Dustin Martin in the years prior to him fully asserting himself on the competition when he was showing the occational flash of brilliance, but not providing a consistent level of output expected of a player of his physical attributes.

That is not what I'm saying at all. I can find something unacceptable without having to panic about it. I find people who don't let you in to traffic when you want to merge unacceptable, but I don't panic about it. I don't think we'll be 0-5, though. It's just my threshold of panic. I've got other things to worry about.

Yes, LH. 0-5. Then I'll panic. People are welcome to panic anytime they like, but I'll lose the plot then.

Nail on head!

Interestingly the Sunday footy show highlighted a number of our forward 50 entries and there were guys on their own who were ignored. The main culprit was Gus going onto his left foot and blasting away. We completely ignored guys in good position to score who were unmanned.

Rjay could you please stop making so much sense so early on a Monday morning! Lucifer forbid we should get the basics of solid footy right! I much prefer our panic manic method with mostly horrid hacking and bombing forward and watching a forward line that has no crumbing or defensive capabilities struggle with the very thing they have trouble doing when the pill hits the deck. Are you seriously saying you would prefer to watch us link up and hit targets on a regular basis and take more shots at goal like good teams do? Boring!

Goodwin will need to fix delivery into the forward-50 first. Otherwise player shift doesn’t matter.

They should make it easier for us to score...less congestion, one on one starting positions. ...but we are not using it to our advantage. The new rules, if we use them to our advantage should make it a lot harder for teams to defend. We are playing dumb football.

It's been that way since the start of 2018. 'We just' makes it sound simple. It's a worrying trend and I can't see any positive change in any part of our game post the prelim final as of yet.

JH was actually one of their best yesterday alternating between forward and midfield. Almost half of his 21 disposals came in the defensive half. His general field kicking is well above average and it was evident yesterday. I thought we could cover his goals from last season, his link up play and ability to cover the ground might be a bigger loss than some thought.

I only cop the May ruling because I believe the AFL is trying to (optimistic version) ensure all players are as protected as possible when it comes to looking term head injuries (or the cynical version) create a track record which demonstrates a no tolerance approach to head contact, with respect to liability for concussion related injuries later on. That being said, I do believe that in the May case the Brisbane player had a duty of care to pay attention to the player in front of him and protect himself from otherwise legal contact. May didn't run or line him up, didn't elbow, didn't blindside and didn't hit with unreasonable force. The bump wasn't late, it was intended as a physical screen to prevent the player running on to the next play. And given those facts, I think it is unfair to suspend him. This I can get behind. May's bump had a legitiment football purpose. All players consent to the risks of physical contact that may result while passing AFL football within the rules. Those punches didn't have a football purpose. Apart from being assult (physical contact not concerned too) they are basically outright cheating: trying to momentarily stun someone or decrease their short term performance or wear them down faster. Also if I had kids Id rather them see the bump from May than a gut punch.

I realise there's more to it, but isn't it ironic that we swapped our best FF for a FB, and now despite getting the ball in there, we can't kick goals and leak like a sieve at the back.

That Don Tyson bloke from Norf would be very handy depth at the moment.