Defensive forward - ANB’s replacement?

[Lucifers Hero 40,519]

The first question is:  Do we need someone to play that role? 

Methinks not!  After all our game plan is changing, new players, new coaches etc.

Edited November 24, 2024 by Lucifers Hero

[Rossco 54]

21 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

Saying he 'could do with a stern talking to' is hardly whipping him to death, though, is it?

I love Fritsch and he is easily my wife's favourite player, but he had a very poor 2024 - particularly in the second half of the year - and the general problems in the team made his limitations very visible. He was down on every stat by about 20% and normally you'd hope that someone going through a slump would look to get back to basics and do the team things (and the other cliches) to work their way through it, but he couldn't manage it.

He really looked like he had no preseason and a permanent head cold all season.

Fingers crossed we get premium Fritsch back for 2025, because off his own boot and as a creative presence it would make a goal a game difference compared to 2024.

Not sure if it is common knowledge but Fritsch played the second half of the season with a knee issue that resulted in surgery at seasons end. He was pretty frustrated with his 2024 year but when you cant run makes playing the game well pretty difficult.

[rpfc 28,906]

1 hour ago, Lucifers Hero said:

The first question is:  Do we need someone to play that role? 

Methinks not!  After all our game plan is changing, new players, new coaches etc.

This role is not really a ‘gameplan’ thing - it’s not like we are going to play 6 forwards inside the 50. There is going to some measure of ‘box-to-box’ play from a forward. Same with the work to release Petracca. These are near-universal tactics - work up the ground, and make sure you help your best players.

ANB doesn’t have a monopoly on this role in the AFL and we should be able to have someone replicate his output and impact.

[dazzledavey36 55,876]

 We don't need a replacement nor do we need a specific type of player to do the role. 

Our issues is our players have been programmed to be too defensive minded sucking the absolute flair and offence from the players themselves. 

Let our smalls just do their thing.

[Fanatique Demon 2,680]

23 hours ago, tiers said:

he was just as likely to save a goal as kick a goal.

Well done.  You’ve summarised my footy career. 

[Fat Tony 5,306]

I think we might play with a smaller forward line next year. Last season we had Petty, JVR, Turner and Fritsch and I could see us going with only three targets.

I could also see Langdon and or Sharp playing half forward roles at times if Lindsay is up to AFL level. 

[beelzebub 23,390]

I suppose it raises a few questions.  Some already have.

Do we need to actually replace Nibbler ( and or his role ) with like for like/similar ? 

Was Nibbler effecting a role largely because he could ?   

Will the way we intend to play ( going forward ) need this role ? 

Had we simply been used to his part of a jigsaw and in reality we can continue quite happily otherwise.

Interested in thoughts 🤔 

[58er 6,814]

23 hours ago, The end is nigh said:

How about trac? With Riv shifting into the mids, maybe trac could take a bit more of the half forward role. Tholstrop Chandler and Sparrow should be doing a share too. Would like to see trac as a scoreboard impacting half forward. 
 

I liked Nibbler and he played his role well, using his skill set to impact. But it forced us to play a game that was inclusive of his style. We have the opportunity to shift our focus into heavier scoring as our younger forwards (JVR, turner, koz) develop into high impact game changers. 

No 

[Gator 17,972]

3 hours ago, Sydee said:

Not sure he has the leg speed 

This role is destined for Sharp or Chandler I’d say 

Woewodin was second at his draft combine with a blistering 2.84 seconds.  Ability may be his issue, but not pace.

Neale-Bullen's spot will be easily filled. 

Edited November 24, 2024 by Gator

[binman 44,532]

21 minutes ago, Gator said:

Woewodin was second at his draft combine with a blistering 2.84 seconds.  Ability may be his issue, but not pace.

Neale-Bullen's spot will be easily filled. 

Disagree on easily, but agree woey might be a good option. 

The role, often spoken about by AFL footballers as the hardest role in football, demands elite fitness, total team first attitude and discipline. 

I reckon woey has those attributes.

In fact the high half forward role might be woey's best shot at being a permanent best 22. I'm not convinced he works as a half back flanker, nor a mid and the wings are taken. Doesn't leave many options. 

[Gator 17,972]

3 minutes ago, binman said:

Disagree on easily, but agree woey might be a good option. 

The role, often spoken about by AFL footballers as the hardest role in football, demands elite fitness, total team first attitude and discipline. 

I reckon woey has those attributes.

In fact the high half forward role might be woey's best shot at being a permanent best 22. I'm not convinced he works as a half back flanker, nor a mid and the wings are taken. Doesn't leave many options. 

I never said Woewodin was a good option.

[BW511 2,724]

14 minutes ago, binman said:

Disagree on easily, but agree woey might be a good option. 

The role, often spoken about by AFL footballers as the hardest role in football, demands elite fitness, total team first attitude and discipline. 

I reckon woey has those attributes.

In fact the high half forward role might be woey's best shot at being a permanent best 22. I'm not convinced he works as a half back flanker, nor a mid and the wings are taken. Doesn't leave many options. 

I am hopeful that Nibblers role becomes almost redundant with a couple more balanced mid/HF options coming into the squad - Sharp, Lindsay, Langford can all squeeze into that area of the ground and go both ways to counter Trac going forward of centre bounce/stoppage.

Edited November 24, 2024 by BW511

[Roger Mellie 4,173]

51 minutes ago, Gator said:

Woewodin was second at his draft combine with a blistering 2.84 seconds.  Ability may be his issue, but not pace.

Neale-Bullen's spot will be easily filled. 

Angus Brayshaw's was even more blistering at 2.81. Sometimes it just doesn't translate to the game.

[rpfc 28,906]

2 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

 We don't need a replacement nor do we need a specific type of player to do the role. 

Our issues is our players have been programmed to be too defensive minded sucking the absolute flair and offence from the players themselves. 

Let our smalls just do their thing.

ANB was doing this ‘defensive minded flair suck’ in 2021…

There’s nuance here; we can be less robotic with ball movement (although I’d argue it’s further up the ground where the robots live), but we can also value a similar type of role that ANB employed.

[Gator 17,972]

1 hour ago, Roger Mellie said:

Angus Brayshaw's was even more blistering at 2.81. Sometimes it just doesn't translate to the game.

There have always been players that don't use their pace on a footy field.  Woewodin has never struck me as being one.

Pace certainly wouldn't be his issue in any Neale-Bullen type role.

And on checking I see Brayshaw was linked to that time but I find it hard to believe, especially as he was trying to improve his speed according to the same article you've referenced.  He never tested at DC and 2.81 was first that year.  Brayshaw was never a speedster.

Neale-Bullen is a fumbler and a pretty ordinary player.  Yes, he improved after we told him to look for a new home at the end of 2020, but he's now being elevated far beyond his station, especially on this platform.  Just a player that will be easily covered.  Disciplined and committed and a valuable leader, but let's not get carried away by his Craig Lambert type role.  My last paragraph is obviously not directed at you.

[Willy's Warriors 109]

Forward line will (hopefully) be something like:

Kozi - Turner - Fritsch

Langford - Van Rooyen - Tholstrup

With Spargo, Jefferson, Trac, AMW and Chandler all in the mix as well. 

There are quite a few players with big tanks who aren't afraid to run. Langford, Kosi, Chandler and Thostrup in particular are all likely to be high work rate, competitive, players.

I'm not worried if they aren't 'defensive fwds' - they all seem like they will keep people accountable.

 

[Sydee 4,633]

11 hours ago, Gator said:

I never said Woewodin was a good option.

I’m not sure many would agree with your opinion that ANB is easily replaced - time will tell 

This to me is another example as to why combine results are, or can be a bit misleading - Woey is not quick on the field. Rarely do you see him burst away from would be tacklers or chase someone down from behind - he’s no plodder but he ain’t quick in a match day setting 

He is as Binman says very dedicated and will do anything for the team but will that be enough is the question 

 

[Roost it far 9,539]

They'll be looking at Sharp, Woewodin, Chandler as possible replacements. It's also possible we'll play a few through the role next year. Personally I'd prefer Chandler stayed forward to concentrate on his small forward craft. Tholstrup is another but I'd suggest he's wanted for serious midfield minutes. With The Brand spending more time forward we need to keep adding midfielders. Xavier Lindsay is another but I'd be starting him of River's HBF.

For mine the more interesting question is who replaces Gus? He could play anywhere, was incredibly hard to play on and was a leader of the club, possibly our most important player at times. He's the guy I'm looking to replace. Currently I think only Langford and maybe Tholstrup at a pinch. Asking Langford as a guy who hasn't played a game is a massive ask but Gus requires an incredible talent to cover what he bought to the team.

Edited November 24, 2024 by Roost it far

[Deemac 140]

I feel sorry for whoever gets this role no one appreciates it and when you make a mistake it’s easy to pile on 

[Bowserpower 168]

We don't have one, and it's not going to be a like for like deal

[layzie 34,338]

I don't think there will be an ANB replacement to put it bluntly.

I'm sure that nearly every big MFC fan understands the value that he brought to the high HFF/Mid role with incredible defensive pressure but I'm still not sure if they quite get just how critical he was to our structure and the way we were playing. You really did have to sit in the MCG and zone on him for a few minutes at a time to see just how much his pressing up and tracking back, the angles he would run and filling the space was critical to locking it in and making sure we were setup behind the ball.

It's what ANB did without the ball that was imperative to our setup and that goes far beyond just the defensive pressure, getting in ball carrier's faces and making tackles.

Not a plug and play position and even if someone does take the defensive HFF role whether it be Spargo, Chandler, Woewodin, whoever. The role, and what will be asked of them, will likely be quite different. 

In short, do we need someone to play the pressure HFF? Yes we do. But a different kind of pressure forward. The Nibbler role is probably a thing of the past now and the wrong thing to do would be to try and find the next Nibbler. 

 

[binman 44,532]

11 hours ago, Gator said:

Neale-Bullen is a fumbler and a pretty ordinary player.  Yes, he improved after we told him to look for a new home at the end of 2020, but he's now being elevated far beyond his station, especially on this platform.  Just a player that will be easily covered.  Disciplined and committed and a valuable leader, but let's not get carried away by his Craig Lambert type role. 

We obviously have very differing opinions about nibbla's ability gator

Opinions are obviously subjective, and when it comes to assessing talent of footballers will vary from person to person based on their own assessment criteria.

But whilst we won't agree on our personal assessments, we can agree on agreed facts that provide some measure of objective data to inform an objective assessment of nibbla's talent.

It is difficult to argue nibblas record in the bluey supports an opinion that nibbla is an ordinary player.

Nibbla's record in the bluey in his last three seasons is 9th, 6th and 3rd.

If someone was looking to downplay the significance of that record they might point to the strange voting system that probably favors players who play assigned roles.

That's not unreasonable, but it points to the importance of the role nibbla played and his ability to execute.

And it's worth noting in that context that arguably the most comparable player in terms of playing a similar role (and in fact in a number of other ways) is langers. 

Nibbla finished ahead of langdon in all three seasons

But even if someone argued the bluey is not a great guide to ability, third is impressive by any measure.

The rest of the top ten were, in order, koz, langers (who had his best season since 2021), Rivers, Mcvee, Chandler, May and tmac.

That's to say nibbla finished ahead of some very good players. That doesn't happen by accident. Nor is it a case like bates finishing high in the bluey because we had a team full of plodders. Not many players in the 160 year history of the club can claim a third place in the bluey.

Leaving aside the bluey, we have an even better objective data point - how the AFL 'market' rates Nibbla. 

The crows just gave us pick 28 for him. Perhaps some might argue the crows were prepared to pay overs to fill a need, but if true  it again just reinforces the importance of the role he plays in modern footy.

But really, does an AFL club give up pick 28 for an 'ordinary' player, one who is 28 and has 150 odd games of exposed form? Even if they really need to fill a role? I don't think so.

Objectively, nibbla is worth pick 28 in this year's draft. That is a fact

Again, langers provides an excellent comparison.

Both players were late draft picks in 2014, both play a similar role and both player's one wood is their elite athleticism

And both were traded to other clubs.

The market valuation of langers was pick 22, 79 and a future second round selection. In return to we got Langdon, pick 26 and a future fourth round pick.

Hard to line all that up, but hard to argue a straight 28 doesn't suggest the market valued nibbla higher than Langdon.

And there a couple of other relevant comparisons in terms of the market vue of players with similar strengths and attributes.

We traded Bedford for pick 44.

And this year we traded in Sharp. For sharp, the lions received pick 49 and a future third-round pick.

The industry, full time professional football people, cleary rate nibbla as much, much better than an ordinary footballer who will be easy to replace.

Dem the objective facts.

All that said, i wish nibbla luck but he is no longer a demon. Time for me to move on.

[Lucifers Hero 40,519]

50 minutes ago, binman said:

We obviously have very differing opinions about nibbla's ability gator

Opinions are obviously subjective, and when it comes to assessing talent of footballers will vary from person to person based on their own assessment criteria.

But whilst we won't agree on our personal assessments, we can agree on agreed facts that provide some measure of objective data to inform an objective assessment of nibbla's talent.

It is difficult to argue nibblas record in the bluey supports an opinion that nibbla is an ordinary player.

Nibbla's record in the bluey in his last three seasons is 9th, 6th and 3rd.

If someone was looking to downplay the significance of that record they might point to the strange voting system that probably favors players who play assigned roles.

That's not unreasonable, but it points to the importance of the role nibbla played and his ability to execute.

And it's worth noting in that context that arguably the most comparable player in terms of playing a similar role (and in fact in a number of other ways) is langers. 

Nibbla finished ahead of langdon in all three seasons

But even if someone argued the bluey is not a great guide to ability, third is impressive by any measure.

The rest of the top ten were, in order, koz, langers (who had his best season since 2021), Rivers, Mcvee, Chandler, May and tmac.

That's to say nibbla finished ahead of some very good players. That doesn't happen by accident. Nor is it a case like bates finishing high in the bluey because we had a team full of plodders. Not many players in the 160 year history of the club can claim a third place in the bluey.

Leaving aside the bluey, we have an even better objective data point - how the AFL 'market' rates Nibbla. 

The crows just gave us pick 28 for him. Perhaps some might argue the crows were prepared to pay overs to fill a need, but if true  it again just reinforces the importance of the role he plays in modern footy.

But really, does an AFL club give up pick 28 for an 'ordinary' player, one who is 28 and has 150 odd games of exposed form? Even if they really need to fill a role? I don't think so.

Objectively, nibbla is worth pick 28 in this year's draft. That is a fact

Again, langers provides an excellent comparison.

Both players were late draft picks in 2014, both play a similar role and both player's one wood is their elite athleticism

And both were traded to other clubs.

The market valuation of langers was pick 22, 79 and a future second round selection. In return to we got Langdon, pick 26 and a future fourth round pick.

Hard to line all that up, but hard to argue a straight 28 doesn't suggest the market valued nibbla higher than Langdon.

And there a couple of other relevant comparisons in terms of the market vue of players with similar strengths and attributes.

We traded Bedford for pick 44.

And this year we traded in Sharp. For sharp, the lions received pick 49 and a future third-round pick.

The industry, full time professional football people, cleary rate nibbla as much, much better than an ordinary footballer who will be easy to replace.

Dem the objective facts.

All that said, i wish nibbla luck but he is no longer a demon. Time for me to move on.

A good analysis.

A couple of points:

• The Bluey favours players that play the most games or play relatively injury free.  In any other season Petracca, Oliver and perhaps May and Lever would be higher up the board.  Bowey and Salem also missed a large part of the season for those reasons.
• The Crows pick 28 we gave away as steak knives to Ess in the pick 9 swap.
• We fought hard to get better than pick 44 for Bedford.  In the end we gave it away as steak knives in the Jackson trade.

I don't think many undervalue ANB's contribution.  But imv we don't need a player dedicated to his role: 

• We will still have defensive midfield/forward tactics but I see roles changing as our game plan and ball movement (hopefully) become more attacking (particularly from d50 to f50 where ANB does most of his work). 
• In the last few drafts we have added players with very good footy IQ and skilled in ball movement (McVee, Windsor and maybe Langford/Johnson). 
• Other players eg Sparrow can protect the paths forward for Petracca etc. 
• Our not so little dynamo Kolt, will dish out a fair amount of defensiveness and get in the face of ops. 
• With a change of ideas from new coaches ANB's role won't be obsolete but I don't think we need to tie down one player for it. 

The ANB role that will be harder to replace is 'general of the fwd line'.  Melksham or Chandler to cover this role until someone else steps up.

Edited November 24, 2024 by Lucifers Hero

[rpfc 28,906]

40 minutes ago, Deemac said:

I feel sorry for whoever gets this role no one appreciates it and when you make a mistake it’s easy to pile on 

Yes, and plenty will say ‘boy wowee, how did Petracca get that much space?! I not gonna boo him now - coz he got that space you see! Oh and look at where Chandler/Woey/INSERT is?! You lost mate? You lost are you?! Come up here with me mate! Forwards play in the FORWARD line mate! Ur hopeless m8!’

[Fat Tony 5,306]

I look at our best 23 from last year and we have essentially lost ANB and gained Langford (and maybe Lindsay) into the side. With ANB gone, we lost a lot of transition running and pressure acts, but with Langford arriving we potentially added a better kick and better mark in the forward line. So the ANB replacement will be Langford.

I don't see Rivers holding a full time spot in the midfield if Petracca, Oliver and Viney are all playing (and I prefer Rivers at half back anyway). Pickett needs to have minutes in the middle as well because he is elite in centre clearance. So I am not sure Langford will get that much time playing as an inside mid.

That all said, we need to find a way to replace ANB's transition running and pressure acts. While Langford should be good in these areas of the game, ANB was one of the best in the AFL and had completed 10 AFL preseasons. I think the best solution is to play one less forward target (Fritsch and only two of Petty, Turner and JVR). Petracca and Langford (and maybe Melksham) can play minutes as another hybrid tall target/small.