Willy's Warriors

From the outside its impossible to tell who is a reach or not. A lot of people had Curtain as a top 5 pick, Leake as a top 10 pick, Darcy WIlson as a borderline top 10 pick. No one had Gothard as low as 10. Tholstrop similarly was considered in the mid teens. It looks like Windsor, Gothard and Tholstrop were higher up clubs' draft boards than expected. And not just by Melbourne - sounds like if we hadn't picked Windsor, GWS would have at 8, or somone in that 9-12 range. Same with Tholstrop - was apparently in the mix at Essendon's pick and would have been taken by St Kilda after us. Gothard too had interest from St Kilda, Sydney and GWS.

If anyone slides back it will be Geelong. They have pick 8, 25 and then 70s, and are expected to use four to five picks. Can see an offer from Adelaide or us swaying them.

If you look at Cal Twomey's phantom draft, Tholstrop is apparently in the mix at Essendon's pick 9, Adelaide's pick 10, our pick 11, and St Kilda's pick 13. I doubt he would have been available at 15 if we hadn't moved up, so I think the assertion that we've traded up for a guy who would have been there at our pick isn't right. Even if we have, however, that might still be worth it to guarantee who we wanted, rather than rolling the dice on whoever was left. It looks like we will be in the right part of the draft at 11 for one of Leake, O'Sullivan, Tholstrop, or Caddy depening on what other clubs do. Could see it getting shuffled if Adelaide moves up or WCE jumps back in to draft Curtain at eight.

Ahhh I do love trade period. Just in case this is serious - dogs traded 10, 17 and a F1 for pick 5, they are not going to move back for the sake of six places in the third round. Particulary given those picks will be chewed up in the bid for Croft. Hawks have a father son at around 15-20ish (McCabe) so they need all their thirds for that too. They will have no interest in trading back. North also have too many first round picks to be interested in six. They are more likely to want to package up their late first rounders (I think they have 17, 18, 19 or something like that) for picks 8 or 10. They are better off sticking with 2 and 3 then splitting one of those picks for 6 and 11. It's pick 1 or taking our picks to the draft. No other real option.

I reckon we're a chance here. If WCE rate Curtain as the second best player in the draft, then it will likely come down to whether or not he will still be there at six. If he is, the offers would then effectively be: Curtain, pick 15, pick 17 and pick 18 for Reid (NM); or Curtain, pick 11, and a future first for Reid. I can see our offer being more palatable. We have a higher pick, and, based on clubs trading this year, it looks like an F1 will be potentially more attractive than pick 17 and 18 this year. I can't see North trading two of pick 2, 3 and their future first, so that might be enough. Might all hinge on the risk that a club takes Curtain at 2-5, but it looks likely that those picks will be McKercher, Duursma, Watson and Sanders, with Caddy, Curtain and O'Sullivan outside chances.

Do we trade our future second and thirds to Brisbane now for pick 29 and Fullarton? They need the points for Ashcroft number two.

It makes sense with our list spots though. We have five spots current created by Jordon, Grundy, Harmes, Hibberd and Dunstan. If we bring in McAdam and Fullarton, that only leaves us with three spots. I assume we will probably use a late pick on F/S Kynan Brown, so that reduces down to only two live spots. Might as well maximise them. I can see us trying to trade up again into Geelong's pick. We might as well try a play for pick 1, but I don't think we can realistically get it. North has too much draft capital for us to compete. It seems this year that all clubs are really keen to move up - the top end of the pool must be regarded pretty highly.

I think its all well and good to say we should poach a forward, but the reality is that there are not many that we could get at this stage: WCE will not trade Allen. He's under contract, young, from Perth and a potential future skipper. Carlton will not trade Mackay, and it sounds like he doesn't want to leave either: https://www.afl.com.au/news/1025140/criticism-contract-and-finals-carlton-blues-gun-harry-mckay-opens-up-about-whirlwind-year. GC will not trade Ben King, and even if they were willing to do so, they have no use for high draft picks this year. given their academy haul Max King is contracted to the end of the 2026 season, and St Kilda wouldn't let him go for picks 4 and 5 anyway. We're also really tight on a salary cap level. If Grundy leaves, that should free up some money, but not enough for a genuine, top 5-6 in the league key forward. If people are floating 800K for Ben Mackay, a genuine key forward is going to be a lot pricier. We would have to look at a second rung, Chris Dawes, Ben Holland, Cam Pedersen type player, or a risky option, like a player returning from a significant injury, at that price. I don't know who that would be, but its unlikely that it will be a silver bullet in any case. I also don't think this is necessarily poor drafting or trading by melbourne that has got us where we are. We've been looking for a big bodied key tall for a long time, but we've had some bad luck. We've: brought in Jesse Hogan, Sam Weideman, Luke Jackson, Van Rooyen, Matt Jefferson n through the draft. Two of them left for the west, one is a best 22 player at 20 years old, one is too young to be anything, and one of them didn't cut through as a forward. brought Ben Brown and Josh Schache through trades, one of whom was a hail mary, and the other got us a flag but has been [censored]/injured since. thrown defenders forward, particularly McDonald, Petty and Smith, which has sort of worked at times. McDonald, however, plays well once every four seasons, Petty has been injured and Smith is athletic but limited; bought in another top ruck to try and let Gawn/Grunday play as resting forward, but that hasn't worked; drafted a whole bunch of mid and small forwards who actually have been pretty good (Fritsch, Kozzie, Bedford, ANB, Chandler, Spargo). In hindsight I think its easy to say we should have drafted Curnow/Mackay, or bought in McStay, but Weid was a reasonable pick and McStay has been injured a lot and kicked less than 20 goals this season. The question for me in that siutation is what is the best, most achieveable way we can improve our forward line next year. The answer to that may be trying to poach someone, but we need to identify who and how. More likely, I think the answer will be through the draft, but that could be through drafting a key forward (e.g. Nate Caddy); a small forward (e.g. Watson); a midfielder who can go forwards and kick goals (e.g. Duursma); a genuine mid with good delivery (e.g. McKercher) or a key defender/forward who can either play up front or cover a move of Petty forward (e.g. O'Sullivan). It might also be time for a coaching/tactics change, but I am not sure whether its our fwds or our mids that are really the problem. The reality is that our forward line should be better next year. I imagine we will move Petty forwards permananently, and so our forward line would be somethign like Roo, Petty, Fritsch, Chandler, Kozzie, ANB. Talent wise, I don't think that is bad at all, particularly if we draft players who can rotate in/provide better delivery like McKercher, Watson, Duursma, etc. That may be our best option.

I remember watching JT's comments before the rookie draft. Said we were looking at 1-2 players, and it would depend on who was available. Clearly, we had some interest in Sestan, but if he was off the table we wouldn't have picked up another rookie. Might need to cool our jets a bit. Guy looks like he could be a great get, but lets see him play a couple of games at Casey first. If he wasn't on anyone's radar, there might be some growth needed. While everyone is understandably focusing on his Mansfield performances, it looks like he was regularly amongst the best and a regular goalkicker for Xavier last year they won the APS - https://www.oldxavs.com.au/post/xavier-wins-aps. That's a good sign and probably more indicative given that it He's in a bit of a similar positon to Jayden Hunt - late pick, school footy. If he's a contributing best 22/fringe player like Jayden I would be very happy.

I thought it must be typo but no - 24 goals in one game. Goulburn Valley Football League Mansfield 39.14.248 defeated Tatura 0.1.1.

I think a lot of the concerns over Jefferson's height and weight are overblown. 195cm and 84kg isn't that small. By comparison: - Jeremy Cameron was 196cm and 86kg (https://www.afl.com.au/news/58887/jeremy-cameron) on his draft night; - Lance Franklin was 197cm and under 90kg on his draft night (https://www.topendsports.com/sport/afl/combine/results-2004.htm) - Jedd Busslinger (pick 13 from this draft) is 196cm and 83kg and Cadman (pick 1) is 195cm and 92kg. - Sam Darcy (pick 2 from 2021) was 204cm and 75kg on draft night; Mac Andrew (pick 5) was 200cm and 70kg; Josh Gibcus (pick 9) was 196cm and 87kg (see https://www.afl.com.au/news/685788/cal-twomey-s-phantom-form-guide-top-draft-prospects-october-ranking); - Jamarra (pick 1 from 2020) was 195cm and 90kg; Riley Thilthorpe (pick 2) was 201cm and 100kg; Logan McDonald was 196cm and 86kg (pick 4); and Denver Grainger-Barrass was 195kg and 78 kg (pick 6) (https://www.afl.com.au/news/527263/cal-twomeys-2020-phantom-draft-top-30-your-clubs-whispers). 195cm and 84kg seems about right for a key forward in the top 10-15 range. Looks like forwards with a more developed body usually get taken very early (Cadman, Jamarra, Thilthorpe). Jefferson will need time to fill out (as all key position players do). Even Cadman is unlikely to make a huge impact next year. That's unfortunate, as we really need another KPF to cover Brown and McDonald (or, even better, complement them). I don't think there are many better options available, sadly. Its hard and expensive to get a genuinely talented KPF on the open market, so you're left with people like Dan McStay or Rory Lobb who are expensive and haven't kicked more than 30 goals in a season. It looks like we might have been interested in Humphrey as a tough half forward who is likely to be ready earlier, but that didn't pan out. In the circumstances, picking Jefferson may not be ideal, as we will have to wait until he's ready, which won't be next year. Still, I think its probably the best thing we could have done. Him and JVR could be the foundation of future success, even if they don't win us a flag next year.