AFL Premiership Metrics

[brendan 3,396]

Just watched pure footy podcast with hoyne and kingy and he was saying without the footy we are better than 2021 we are number 1 by a fair margin just need to tidy up what we are doing forward, kind of gives you hope I suppose seeing these stats and history shows they mean a lot when we get to the pointy end. Ben brown has to come in imo he straightens us up, also we need clarry back asap as trac can go forward as he is number 1 in the comp for generating a scores when targeted going forward 

from rounds 1-9 petracca played

31% forward we averaged 106.9 points

rounds 10-15

6% forward we averaged 67.6 points 

petracca has been targeted 13 times forward this year with 92% score rate which is insane and number 1 in the comp by a fair margin.

so going forward bbb to come in Bowey to come in and petracca forward 50/50 if possible I know that may not happen till clarry is back but worth trying give brayshaw and sparrow and kozzie/Rivers more midfield minutes 

 

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,317]

As disappointing as the Geelong loss was, would there be any team in the league that would actually beat Collingwood at the G and then Geelong at GHMBA in consecutive starts - two pronounced home ground advantages.

The only team that would give it a shake would be Port. They'd start slight underdog in both games and would probably be 4-1 odds to win them both. In other words a chance but unlikely.

My point is, had we been able to hold onto our 7 point lead and beaten Geelong, then we'd be in discussion as being the number 1 seed in the comp, from both the media, our supporters and the general public's perception.

We need to get back on track and win 7 out of our last 9 games to secure our spot in the top 4. At worst 7 losses gets you a place in the top 4 going by prior years.

[Jaded No More 58,489]

2 hours ago, binman said:

100% agree (assuming we don't get hit with injuries to multiple key best say top 10 players).

In fact, i think an argument could be made, that not making the GF would be a fail (with the same caveat).

100% agree

Only injuries should prevent us from making a grand final. Anything less than that is a failure and should be reviewed as such by the club.

It's why we have to get Oliver right. We won't win a flag without him and Trac fit  and firing in September. 

We have a list right now that is capable of winning 1-2 more flags. I hope we go hard for another developed tall (doesn't matter if they are a defender or forward) in the off season to extend that window even further. 

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,317]

37 minutes ago, brendan said:

so going forward bbb to come in Bowey to come in and petracca forward 50/50 if possible I know that may not happen till clarry is back but worth trying give brayshaw and sparrow and kozzie/Rivers more midfield minutes 

 

Would help if Sparrow became a 20 possession /  1 goal a game midfielder.

I get that he has lower TOG than other, but in the absence of Oliver he should be increasing his output. However he's failed to crack the 20 mark since Clarry has been injured. Infact he's only cracked 20 possessions in 10 of his 70 odd games.

[titan_uranus 22,565]

2 hours ago, brendan said:

Just watched pure footy podcast with hoyne and kingy and he was saying without the footy we are better than 2021 we are number 1 by a fair margin just need to tidy up what we are doing forward, kind of gives you hope I suppose seeing these stats and history shows they mean a lot when we get to the pointy end. Ben brown has to come in imo he straightens us up, also we need clarry back asap as trac can go forward as he is number 1 in the comp for generating a scores when targeted going forward 

from rounds 1-9 petracca played

31% forward we averaged 106.9 points

rounds 10-15

6% forward we averaged 67.6 points 

petracca has been targeted 13 times forward this year with 92% score rate which is insane and number 1 in the comp by a fair margin.

so going forward bbb to come in Bowey to come in and petracca forward 50/50 if possible I know that may not happen till clarry is back but worth trying give brayshaw and sparrow and kozzie/Rivers more midfield minutes 

 

I think this is criminally underrated by most of us. 

Oliver goes down in Round 10 vs Port. We move Trac into more midfield minutes to cover. Our scoring decreases.

Yes, we need Oliver back, but I’d love us to have more midfield depth to be able to cover Oliver with others and keep Trac forward of centre more. I’m a big advocate for Rivers to become a midfielder. I continue to believe we play too many small forwards and not enough mids. 

[Binmans PA 26,288]

23 hours ago, DeeZone said:

According to the above we are ranked No.1 slightly ahead of Pies nothing to do with 2021.!! So we are doing a lot of things right straighten up the kicking in the second half and who knows.

Nah, but we're useless. Our game style isn't exciting enough and we don't have the right arousal levels to win a flag.

[Binmans PA 26,288]

1 hour ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Would help if Sparrow became a 20 possession /  1 goal a game midfielder.

I get that he has lower TOG than other, but in the absence of Oliver he should be increasing his output. However he's failed to crack the 20 mark since Clarry has been injured. Infact he's only cracked 20 possessions in 10 of his 70 odd games.

Sparrow is the defensive mid that has basically taken the Viney role, while Viney (and Trac to an extent) has taken the Oliver role.

[Binmans PA 26,288]

16 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

I think this is criminally underrated by most of us. 

Oliver goes down in Round 10 vs Port. We move Trac into more midfield minutes to cover. Our scoring decreases.

Yes, we need Oliver back, but I’d love us to have more midfield depth to be able to cover Oliver with others and keep Trac forward of centre more. I’m a big advocate for Rivers to become a midfielder. I continue to believe we play too many small forwards and not enough mids. 

I'm starting to come around to this view too, although I think in the cut and thrust of the fatigue-ridden mid season games (competition-wide), I'm happy to go more defensive in our forward set up, by playing more small forwards than talls.

As we hit the home stretch, I'd be going taller too and I think they'll change this up over the coming weeks.

[Docs Demons 1,669]

20 hours ago, praha said:

This comment is basically 2022 all over again.

It ain't happening. We don't just magically flick the switch and come good from this:

https://twitter.com/JTGiuliano/status/1673949252500979718?t=4TDTHc-wd7gf4NCB9FWV1Q&s=19

People need to realise the wheels are closer to falling off than tightening up.

Well one of us will be correct and let's hope it's me !

[DubDee 20,950]

wins and losses are the best metric

[Binmans PA 26,288]

17 minutes ago, DubDee said:

wins and losses are the best metric

Come the end of the year, sure, but before then, it's about making the top 4.

[DubDee 20,950]

19 minutes ago, A F said:

Come the end of the year, sure, but before then, it's about making the top 4.

and the best way to make top 4 is to win games 

original Dub quote

[Binmans PA 26,288]

5 minutes ago, DubDee said:

and the best way to make top 4 is to win enough games 

revised AF quote.

 

[Macca 16,173]

Win at least 6 of our last 9* and we'll finish 4th or 3rd in my view ... especially if we can beat the Lions

With a probable/possible QF against the Pies as a result

If finishing 3rd or 4th (with a Pies QF match-up guaranteed) requires us to 'rest' some players in the last game against the Swans, so be it

But of course, it's one week at a time and any manipulation will not be visible, thank you very much 😁

I'm confident that we'll win at least 6 of our last 9

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,317]

16 hours ago, Macca said:

Win at least 6 of our last 9* and we'll finish 4th or 3rd in my view ... especially if we can beat the Lions

With a probable/possible QF against the Pies as a result

If finishing 3rd or 4th (with a Pies QF match-up guaranteed) requires us to 'rest' some players in the last game against the Swans, so be it

But of course, it's one week at a time and any manipulation will not be visible, thank you very much 😁

I'm confident that we'll win at least 6 of our last 9

6 out of 9 with 15 wins should get us top 4, but 15 wins has failed to get clubs into the top 4 in the past. And with the extra game, we may very well need 16 wins (7 out of 9 wins) if clubs just below us win almost every week, which hopefully they won't.

 

[Macca 16,173]

15 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

6 out of 9 with 15 wins should get us top 4, but 15 wins has failed to get clubs into the top 4 in the past. And with the extra game, we may very well need 16 wins (7 out of 9 wins) if clubs just below us win almost every week, which hopefully they won't.

 

The teams below us aren't consstently good ... 1 team might win out or go close but I can't see it

But it's at least 6 wins with a healthy percentage and we should be ok for top 4

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,250]

On 6/28/2023 at 2:28 PM, FearTheBeard said:

stop clinging to 2021, this isnt that team.

Again, reference the Hoyne sports day comparison that clearly suggests otherwise! The data says we’re playing the same for same time of year & that we just need to connect and convert better Ala 2021 r13-19 then r20-GF — we’re in thick of it on all key metrics and UNLIKE LY we’re gonna have a well rested group not carrying major injuries (at this stage) inc a rested Oliver & Gawn!!!

Edited June 30, 2023 by Nudge

[whatwhat say what 19,230]

23 hours ago, binman said:

100% agree (assuming we don't get hit with injuries to multiple key best say top 10 players).

In fact, i think an argument could be made, that not making the GF would be a fail (with the same caveat).

my criteria is the same as always - we should be a top 4 side at the end of the home and away season

anything can, and does, happen in finals

[DeeZone 7,850]

2 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

6 out of 9 with 15 wins should get us top 4, but 15 wins has failed to get clubs into the top 4 in the past. And with the extra game, we may very well need 16 wins (7 out of 9 wins) if clubs just below us win almost every week, which hopefully they won't.

 

Agree BBP win 6 of our last 9 maintain our percentage and a number of the younger sides will wilt towards the end of season then we are in with a chance.!!

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,317]

On 6/29/2023 at 12:36 PM, D4Life said:

Port on fire at moment, but how will their young guns in Butters, Rozee and Horn Francis be travelling in September and they don’t get home ground umpiring favouritism at the MCG on GF day if they make it that far!

Valid question about Port and if you can largely stop Butters, Rozee and JHF, then you're surely going to beat them in a final.

For example, in their loss to Collingwood in round 2 they had a combined 53 touches and 1 goal between them which was such a low output. Compare that to their win over Melbourne where they had a combined 95 touches and 4 goals.

 Butters and Rozee have only one year's less experience (5 years) than Oliver and Petracca had in 2021 (6 years), and it's fair to say that our duo dominated the 2021 finals series.

Port's fortunes will heavily depend on Butters and Rozee but history suggests that may well have the maturity and experience to carry Port to the promise land. 

[FearTheBeard 904]

2 hours ago, Nudge said:

Again, reference the Hoyne sports day comparison that clearly suggests otherwise! The data says we’re playing the same for same time of year & that we just need to connect and convert better Ala 2021 r13-19 then r20-GF — we’re in thick of it on all key metrics and UNLIKE LY we’re gonna have a well rested group not carrying major injuries (at this stage) inc a rested Oliver & Gawn!!!

Thats great but unless your eyes deceive you, we have been bang average for 30 weeks now. Our record since round 11 last year is 15-13. This is not 2021 where we had a Darren Burgess lead fitness program that drove the mid-season drop off. We are either currently in a 28 week drop or just aren't a very good team and I'm just realistic about it. 

[Engorged Onion 9,392]

56 minutes ago, FearTheBeard said:

Thats great but unless your eyes deceive you, we have been bang average for 30 weeks now. Our record since round 11 last year is 15-13. This is not 2021 where we had a Darren Burgess lead fitness program that drove the mid-season drop off. We are either currently in a 28 week drop or just aren't a very good team and I'm just realistic about it. 

I agree that if you look it at like that then we are average, and there is far more nuance and context to make sense of that record is why it is.

Any given year - injuries and carrying injuries into games are the biggest predictors of outcomes. 
‘22 it’s been outlined that last 2/3 months we had significant structural issues due to injuries as well as multiple players playing injured. 

‘23 we’ve also had some key injuries, blooding new players and we’re still 4th, If we can get Oliver back, and a few other things, such as refinement of gameplay and the training regime, I’d say we’re a greater likelihood of improving that record significantly. And who knows - optimistically/realistically snag another flag.

Our game plan clearly stacks up against the sexy pie machine…
 

[FearTheBeard 904]

36 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

I agree that if you look it at like that then we are average, and there is far more nuance and context to make sense of that record is why it is.

Any given year - injuries and carrying injuries into games are the biggest predictors of outcomes. 
‘22 it’s been outlined that last 2/3 months we had significant structural issues due to injuries as well as multiple players playing injured. 

‘23 we’ve also had some key injuries, blooding new players and we’re still 4th, If we can get Oliver back, and a few other things, such as refinement of gameplay and the training regime, I’d say we’re a greater likelihood of improving that record significantly. And who knows - optimistically/realistically snag another flag.

Our game plan clearly stacks up against the sexy pie machine…
 

Dont get me wrong, Melbourne's best football is the best in the competition, we just don't produce it for more than 15 minutes.. But injuries are not an excuse when you look at what the Pies have delt with over the last 12 weeks and they keep winning.

[Engorged Onion 9,392]

5 minutes ago, FearTheBeard said:

Dont get me wrong, Melbourne's best football is the best in the competition, we just don't produce it for more than 15 minutes.. But injuries are not an excuse when you look at what the Pies have delt with over the last 12 weeks and they keep winning.

Can you outline that for me - I don’t really pay attention to their specifics. 👍

[DeelightfulPlay 2,245]

On 6/29/2023 at 2:18 PM, titan_uranus said:

I think this is criminally underrated by most of us. 

Oliver goes down in Round 10 vs Port. We move Trac into more midfield minutes to cover. Our scoring decreases.

Yes, we need Oliver back, but I’d love us to have more midfield depth to be able to cover Oliver with others and keep Trac forward of centre more. I’m a big advocate for Rivers to become a midfielder. I continue to believe we play too many small forwards and not enough mids. 

From memory, Trac was also one of the top score assists earlier in the season pre Oliver injury.  So even though Trac's goal kicking has been down this season and 2022, it does explain some of our woes...  agree also with your point about fatigue @A F