This is my proposal for how a Final 9 could work should the AFL expand to 19 teams in the future (and want to make more money)

Final 9 Proposal

Main points:

·      Top 9 teams qualify

·      Every team that qualifies plays at least two games, and at least one home and one away game

·      All teams can win the premiership, but the higher your finish the greater your chance to play to play in a preliminary final and the greater the chance that it will be a Home PF

·      Finals series is for 5 weeks. The pre-finals bye is eliminated but each team will receive one bye in the first 3 weeks during the series. To win the premiership you must win the last 2 weeks (PF and GF) and at least one of the other 2 games (ie it is impossible to lose 2 games and win the GF)

System:

Teams that finish in the top 9 are allocated pools based on their H&A ladder position.

Pool A - 1,6,7 

Pool B - 2,5,8

Pool C - 3,4,9

Each team plays 2 games (1xH and 1xA) against the other 2 teams in its pool. 

The teams are then ranked 1^st, 2^nd or 3^rd in their pool.

Percentage is used to separate those teams on equal wins, calculated using only the results from finals games.

The winner of each pool advances to the Preliminary Finals (3) as does the highest H&A ranked team from those teams that finished 2^nd in their finals pool.

(ie of the 3 teams that finished 2^nd in their pools, select the one that finished highest during the H&A season to advance to the PF)

All the teams that finished 1^st in their group are re-ranked for preliminary finals. The highest finishing team in H&A who qualifies for the Preliminary Finals is ranked 1. The second highest is 2 and third is 3. The team that qualifies by virtue of being the highest ranked team to finish second, is re-ranked as 4^th.

Preliminary finals are 1v4 and 2v3

Grand final is the winner of each PF.

The schedule in the Qualifying Rounds and How to avoid dead rubbers 

Each team is ranked 1,2 or 3 within their pools (eg Pool A, team 1 is 1, team 6 is 2 and team 7 is 3) depending on their H&A position. Each pool has the same system with each team playing one home and one away game.

Week 1: 2 v 3 (team 1 has a bye)

Week 2: 3 v 1 (team 2 has a bye) OR 1 v 2 (team 3 has a bye)

Week 3: 1 v 2 (team 3 has a bye) OR 3 v 1 ( team 2 has a bye)

The winner of week 1 advances to week 3, so that will determine which of the two options is played in week 2 and which is played in week 3.

There can be no dead rubber in the final round.

Example, with winning teams in bold.

The teams finish like this at the end of the H&A season:

1 GEE

2 MEL

3 FRE

4 BNE

5 CAR

6 COLL

7 SYD

8 RICH

9 STK

POOL A: Gee, Coll, Syd

POOL B: Mel, Car, Rich

POOL C: Fre, Bne, St K

Week 1:

Coll v Syd

Carl v Rich

Bne vs StK

Byes:  Geel, Melb, Freo

Week 2

Syd vs Geel

Rich vs Melb

Freo vs Bne

Byes: Coll, Carl, St K

Week 3

Geel v Coll 

Melb v Carl

StK vs Freo

Byes: Syd, Rich, Bne

In Pool C, Freo have a solid win over StK and win their group and St Kilda finish 2^nd. But as the 9^th placed team it’s impossible to finish as the best runner up, so they’re eliminated. 

In Pool B, Melb comfortably defeats Carl who finish 2^nd in their group and await the results of other games to see if they can be the highest placed runner-up. Rich, having lost both their games was already eliminated.

In Pool A, all 3 teams finish on 1 win, so the result comes down to the percentage over the three games (2 each). Geel are up by 20 points with seconds to go in the last quarter, but a behind after the siren makes it only a 19 point, win allowing Coll to top the group while  Geel edges Syd out for 2^nd place in their group. Geel qualify as the highest placed runner-up. If Geel had won by 20+ and topped the group, then Carl would have qualified as the highest ranked runner up.  

POOL A WIINER: Coll

POOL B WINNER: Melb

POOL C WINNER: Freo

Best placed runner-up: Geel

Preliminary Finals: 

Mel vs Geel

Freo vs Coll

GF:

Mel vs Coll

Melbourne go on to win by 634 points, after a shock 1^st quarter where they were held to only 11 goals straight.  Weideman returns to the team after 3 years in the reserves and kicks 27 goals while Oliver racks up 132 possessions. Petracca receives his 7^th consecutive Norm Smith Medal. On the down side, Gawn has a disappointing 347 hit outs, while Jackson watches from the sidelines in his Freo scarf regretting life’s decisions.

 

 

 

Edited July 20, 20223 yr by Big Col
clarified example

Yeah

Nah

 

This looks far too [censored] complicated .

Footy finals are simple win and you progress. Second chance for the top echelon. That's it 

Make it a top 10, and have 7 v 10 and 8 v 9 in the bye week before finals.

Solved.

You're welcome.

There is no incentive for the top finishing team after the H&A season to bother winning any of its games in the initial round of your proposed finals series. For this reason alone, it’s flawed, and will lead to resting and not going 100%.

Wow, you work for Hutchy by any chance?

tl;dr

Wednesday is stressful enough without having to do late night mathematics

Edited July 20, 20223 yr by John Demonic

No for me. Too big an advantage to Richmond!!

55 minutes ago, Big Col said:

Melbourne go on to win by 634 points, after a shock 1^st quarter where they were held to only 11 goals straight.  Weideman returns to the team after 3 years in the reserves and kicks 27 goals while Oliver racks up 132 possessions. Petracca receives his 7^th consecutive Norm Smith Medal. On the down side, Gawn has a disappointing 347 hit outs, while Jackson watches from the sidelines in his Freo scarf regretting life’s decisions

Lol.  I like the sentiment Big Col, but what have you been smoking in your pipe to come up with that?

Perhaps that explains the rest of the post too.

...whatever it is, can I have some?

 

P.S. I'm not sure what's more delusional.  Your last para or the prospect of Tassie ever entering the comp (which I'd personally like to see BTW).

Edited July 20, 20223 yr by Rodney (Balls) Grinter

Not convinced with the Tassie proposal enough to absorb your great work.

But I appreciate the effort and love you for it.

Good grief.

1 hour ago, Glorious Day said:

There is no incentive for the top finishing team after the H&A season to bother winning any of its games in the initial round of your proposed finals series. For this reason alone, it’s flawed, and will lead to resting and not going 100%.

The top team must finish first in its group to get a home preliminary final.
If the top team finishes second in its group it qualifies for an away final
If the top team finishes third in its group then it is eliminated
 

Amazing effort with the assignment but I'll stick with the top 8.

 

7 minutes ago, Big Col said:

1 hour ago, Glorious Day said:

There is no incentive for the top finishing team after the H&A season to bother winning any of its games in the initial round of your proposed finals series. For this reason alone, it’s flawed, and will lead to resting and not going 100%.

The top team must finish first in its group to get a home preliminary final.
If the top team finishes second in its group it qualifies for an away final
If the top team finishes third in its group then it is eliminated
 

These are the scenarios for the top team:

• In all cases team 1 has a bye in round 1 
• The loser of 6 v 7 will play team 1 in round 2.
• Team 1 will play the winner of round 1 in round 3

In Rd 3,  Team 1 has 0 or 1 wins and is playing against a team with 1 win. 
If they lost in Rd2 then they will have to win in Rd3 to have a chance at finishing 1st or 2nd. That will come down to percentage. If they lose again, they're out.
If they won in Rd2 then they will have to win in Rd3 to finish top. If they lose they will finish second and yes they will qualify for the PF but it will be for an away final. This could be an issue where the opponent is certain to be another Melbourne team, but you'd also be ranked 4 and playing the best of the other teams in the PF, rather than 2 or 3.

A team that 'relaxed' in Round 1 would do so at their peril.

top 8 with a 'play-in' for 7 v 10 and 8 v 9 looms as the more logical approach

Just get rid of North. Problem Solved

1 hour ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

Lol.  I like the sentiment Big Col, but what have you been smoking in your pipe to come up with that?

Perhaps that explains the rest of the post too.

...whatever it is, can I have some?

 

P.S. I'm not sure what's more delusional.  Your last para or the prospect of Tassie ever entering the comp (which I'd personally like to see BTW).

Was I bit too conservative and pessimistic?

Nineteen teams doesn't work unless you reduce to 18 rounds.

If not every team must have two byes

If you want something dramatic you play 18 rounds and the bottom 3 or 5 drop out

Assuming 5 have dropped out then it is seeded with 1v 14, 1v13 etc until  you get to 22 games.

TBH it stinks but it shows what you have to do to accommodate an odd number of teams

Edited July 20, 20223 yr by Diamond_Jim

Just one minor alteration: i would scrap the home and away games and go straight to the finals.

The proposal is too radical a change. The 8 works well and no need to stuff around with the finals system.

Edited July 20, 20223 yr by John Crow Batty

It should be trialed in the VFL who have 21 teams if 9 or 10 teams work. Personally I think 8 is enough. Shouldn't reward mediocrity.

19 teams is a dumb number. We'll never get a 20th because the NT is too small and the footy states of SA and WA won't be able to muster another team.

If Tassie is to happen, North goes south to be the Tassie Kangaroos. 

I read the entire OP, some parts twice or even thrice to make sure I was getting it. And now I’ve forgotten all that’s good in the world. 

The only justification for a 8 team final series is money. As it is we're already rewarding teams who win barely 50% of their games with finals. A 9 team final series would just be ridiculous.

As an aside, I hope we never see more than 18 teams, and would rather we cull some Victorian teams to get back to 16.

Forget any final 9, the damage is done to the main fixture with 19 teams. 

Just look at the mess that the VFL fixture is with 21 teams.

 

6 hours ago, dee-tox said:

19 teams is a dumb number. We'll never get a 20th because the NT is too small and the footy states of SA and WA won't be able to muster another team.

If Tassie is to happen, North goes south to be the Tassie Kangaroos. 

I'm not promoting it, but you could get a 20th team by locating a team in Canberra.

Personally, I think 18 teams is a better number. The tough decision is not whether Tassie gets a team, but which current team is dissolved or relocated (or which two teams merge) to get to that point.

And I admire the work of the OP, but an eight team finals series is already two teams too many.