On 31/07/2022 at 11:50, Dr. Gonzo said:

Very true, we own them in September

6-1

Might be 11-1 if we only count 2nd Semi Finals & GF's.  Might be 13-2 but it's still an imposing record any way you slice it

Back in the day they must have hated us something chronic.  We absolutely owned them

It's any wonder their members stand erupted in glee when news came through that the Demons had missed the finals (last round 1976 as touched upon by @Anti-Saint)

I was there that day and have hated them ever since

Edited July 31, 20222 yr by Macca

  On 31/07/2022 at 11:59, jnrmac said:

Didn't they beat us in 2017 when they were 13th and we only had to win to make finals?

I recall that we didn't lay a tackle in the first 15 mins such was our antipathy and we missed finals by 0.2% or thereaboouts....

I remember Lyndon Dunn carrying on like a pork chop post-game!

Edited July 31, 20222 yr by John Demonic

I love hearing the players talk about the run home and relishing the fact that we have a run that is against the better teams of the competition as opposed to a soft finish like what the cats have.

The talk and attitude (and way we played on Friday) is so much more like what we experienced in 2021 as opposed to what we've seen for much of this year. This Friday will be like a final, the winner comes close to banking a top 4 finish, loser goes back to the pack.

Cats by contrast will have to go from having almost practice matches to finals atmosphere, away from their home.

  On 31/07/2022 at 11:48, Macca said:

And we have beaten Collingwood in 14 of the last 15 times we have met them in a final

An extraordinary record and a record which all Collingwood supporters need to know about

It's a good record against the AFL HQ  favourites, the majority of AFL supporters (as a single Club), the umpiring fraternity, the media and perhaps, the fellowship of dunny-cleaners. We could embark on an effort to remind them all of this record that we hold and simply leave it at that point. We'll win on the day if the selectors get it correctly stowed onfield.

 

Just have a look where we are on the ladder. Stuck in between the 2 most hated clubs in the AFL. There would be nothing better than rising from the middle and smashing those 2 scumbags to oblivion.

Here's an update of my simulations following round 20, with Melbourne most likely playing Sydney in the first week of finals. Sydney has a relatively easier draw than Collingwood so will quite possibly finish higher than Collingwood.

Likely opponent in first week of finals, noting that I have all Victorian matches at the MCG

There is no doubt IMO that we will finish in the top four however I find it difficult to believe we can win the flag this year with the poor state of our KPF's. With Tmac out for probably the rest of this year we are left with Brown and Weideman. Brown is way below his best and enough has been said about Sam. We would need Brown to show form he has not shown all year. I see a prelim loss on the horizon. 

  On 01/08/2022 at 00:56, old dee said:

There is no doubt IMO that we will finish in the top four however I find it difficult to believe we can win the flag this year with the poor state of our KPF's. With Tmac out for probably the rest of this year we are left with Brown and Weideman. Brown is way below his best and enough has been said about Sam. We would need Brown to show form he has not shown all year. I see a prelim loss on the horizon. 

JVR to the rescue!

  On 01/08/2022 at 00:56, old dee said:

There is no doubt IMO that we will finish in the top four however I find it difficult to believe we can win the flag this year with the poor state of our KPF's. With Tmac out for probably the rest of this year we are left with Brown and Weideman. Brown is way below his best and enough has been said about Sam. We would need Brown to show form he has not shown all year. I see a prelim loss on the horizon. 

OD surely you can see that our game relies much more on our defence, defensive 2 way run, and gun midfielders, than it does on gun KPFs? 

We just smashed a potential top 4 team, with our sole key forward having next to no impact. 
 

  On 01/08/2022 at 00:26, dl4e said:

Just have a look where we are on the ladder. Stuck in between the 2 most hated clubs in the AFL. There would be nothing better than rising from the middle and smashing those 2 scumbags to oblivion.

So much hatred

  On 01/08/2022 at 01:11, 1964_2 said:

OD surely you can see that our game relies much more on our defence, defensive 2 way run, and gun midfielders, than it does on gun KPFs? 

We just smashed a potential top 4 team, with our sole key forward having next to no impact. 
 

Yes but we also lost to the Cats and dogs. IMO you cannot simply rely on the backs to win you games in finals. The KPF's have to  contribute way more than they have in the last couple of months. Finals are a different ball game. you just cannot afford to carry passengers.

 

Edited August 1, 20222 yr by old dee

I agree OD, we need tall forwards to hit the score board in finals but I also think we probably only need 3-4 goals that way to be successful. Those goals could come from any combination of Brown, Weid, JVR, Gawn or Jackson. If we can get that I'd be confident we can find 8-10 from other avenues. 

11 - 14 goals will be enough if we are at our best defensively 

  On 01/08/2022 at 00:56, old dee said:

There is no doubt IMO that we will finish in the top four however I find it difficult to believe we can win the flag this year with the poor state of our KPF's.

Our 2 key talls (BB & TMac) combined for 9 out of 53 goals we scored during last years finals series. Replace TMac with Weideman and we still win the flag. Granted, they both impacted in other areas of the ground (particularly BB), but we absolutely have enough firepower to win it without major contributions from our tall forwards.

Especially with Fritsch contributing as defacto key forward

  On 01/08/2022 at 03:03, Accepting Mediocrity said:

Our 2 key talls (BB & TMac) combined for 9 out of 53 goals we scored during last years finals series. Replace TMac with Weideman and we still win the flag. Granted, they both impacted in other areas of the ground (particularly BB), but we absolutely have enough firepower to win it without major contributions from our tall forwards.

McDonald kicked only 3 goals in the finals last year. Two of them were in the last 5 mins of the GF. He battled away manfully and did the little things well but was not in his ripping early season form after getting injured late in the year. We can definitely still win the flag without a firing second tall.

  On 01/08/2022 at 03:03, Accepting Mediocrity said:

Our 2 key talls (BB & TMac) combined for 9 out of 53 goals we scored during last years finals series. Replace TMac with Weideman and we still win the flag. Granted, they both impacted in other areas of the ground (particularly BB), but we absolutely have enough firepower to win it without major contributions from our tall forwards.

Very good point but T-Mac's contribution should never be overlooked in that finals series. The way he runs defenders out of position and 'creates space' made it a nightmare to defend against. 

  On 01/08/2022 at 03:41, layzie said:

Very good point but T-Mac's contribution should never be overlooked in that finals series. The way he runs defenders out of position and 'creates space' made it a nightmare to defend against. 

Spot on layzie. It is not just goals it is the contribution he makes to breaking up the opposition defence. 

Also Ralph said on Fri night McDonald might be right to play VFL by the pre-finals break. That'd give him 3 games of footy before potentially being available for a prelim.

  On 01/08/2022 at 05:44, Kozzie4PM said:

Also Ralph said on Fri night McDonald might be right to play VFL by the pre-finals break. That'd give him 3 games of footy before potentially being available for a prelim.

Id be really nervous about tMac coming back in to a hot finals game after that injury and long off.

  On 01/08/2022 at 05:34, old dee said:

Spot on layzie. It is not just goals it is the contribution he makes to breaking up the opposition defence. 

And his work up the ground as a marking option.

  On 01/08/2022 at 05:58, Bates Mate said:

Id be really nervous about tMac coming back in to a hot finals game after that injury and long off.

i hear you, if he can get his fitness to 90% then you wouldn't think twice about it. I wonder how he can prepare without stressing his foot that can build match fitness. he should have aerobic covered, but its more the work that has to go into his muscles.

I think we're going to need to win all 3 games to finish top 2 as I can see Sydney going 3-0 and making up the percentage on us as they'll likely have a 10 goal + win against North on Sunday. Sydney have a very healthy percentage.

Assuming we (unfortunately) go 2-1, the only way we could avoid a trip to Sydney in week 1 is if Collingwood beat Sydney next week. I'm sure Sydney will go at least 2-1 to finish the season unless they implode against St Kilda in round 23.

Obviously the destiny is in our own hands tonight and the following two rounds if we want to finish top 2.

  On 04/08/2022 at 23:21, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I think we're going to need to win all 3 games to finish top 2 as I can see Sydney going 3-0 and making up the percentage on us as they'll likely have a 10 goal + win against North on Sunday. Sydney have a very healthy percentage.

Assuming we (unfortunately) go 2-1, the only way we could avoid a trip to Sydney in week 1 is if Collingwood beat Sydney next week. I'm sure Sydney will go at least 2-1 to finish the season unless they implode against St Kilda in round 23.

Obviously the destiny is in our own hands tonight and the following two rounds if we want to finish top 2.

Can't stand the SCG to watch footy however is it really more desirable to play them down here than up there ? To be honest I don't think it is. They play the MCG well and we have gone 6-0 interstate this year.

  On 05/08/2022 at 00:34, dl4e said:

Can't stand the SCG to watch footy however is it really more desirable to play them down here than up there ? To be honest I don't think it is. They play the MCG well and we have gone 6-0 interstate this year.

We can win anywhere but getting more Dees fans to the game would be great for the fans and the team.

  On 05/08/2022 at 00:34, dl4e said:

Can't stand the SCG to watch footy however is it really more desirable to play them down here than up there ? To be honest I don't think it is. They play the MCG well and we have gone 6-0 interstate this year.

Agree with you to some point.

We have an atrocious record against Sydney at the MCG (losing to them in 2018 and 2022) but did win our most recent meeting up there at the SCG in 2019 (but did lose to the Pies last year there)

Was thinking more about the fact that after last year's lockdown, the club would be keen to have all of its finals in Melbourne so all can attend.