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2022 The Run Home - Predictions


Vipercrunch

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I thought it would be fun to have a predictions only thread.  There are so many threads full of the discussion about where we are at now and where we are heading, so I don't think we need another thread that contains that stuff.  I would like this to simply be predictions, no back and forth or analysis.

Firstly, our W/L after round 19 (18 games played).  Round 19 is when we had our last loss in 2021 and breaks up the run home approximately in half.

Then an end of season W/L (22 games).

And then a finals prediction, with or without detail.

 

Round 19 - 12W-6L - I'm fully expecting to continue to struggle, so I think we go 2-3 over the next 5 games.

Round 22 - 15W-7L - We'll start to come good, but its a tough draw so we'll go 3-1.

Finals - Premiership - Finish 5th after H/A.  Solid but not outstanding win against a team like Collingwood who have scrapped into the finals.  Much stronger win against Sydney or Carlton in week 2, who have had great seasons to finsih top 4 but don't have anything left come September.  Big win over the prentenders Geelong in the prelim who get found out again.  And then a big win the grand final against Brisbane who finally go well in September but are really no match for Melbourne.

 

Have at it.

 

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Predictions and prognostications in AFL footy. A very very hard task. 
I can only see us winning 5 out of the remaining 9 games and that’s being optimistic or even a little mistioptic. 
15-7. Hmmm 4th??!?! Ouch. 
Freo and Brisbane pose real threats as interstate teams if they finish 1-2. We need top 2.  

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I think we'll win another 5-6 games in the run home, return to form in a pretty serious way, finish top 4 and be in a pretty good spot to have a good crack at it. 

I am going to predict that Fremantle fall away slightly and we play the Cats in a qualifying final and the Lions in the big dance. 

 

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We will beat Adelaide, Port, Dogs and hopefully catch Collingwood on a bad day in round 21. Yesterday most certainly was not a bad day for Collingwood, and Freo and Sydney also played the game of their respective years against us.

14-8 for the year which is an underwhelming result.

We finish 6th, play Sydney in an MCG elimination final on a Thursday or Saturday night and it's a flip of the coin result. Goodwin can't beat Longmire (aside from a rare win last year)

Really don't want a repeat of round 22 1995 where we have to beat Brisbane at the Gabba to fall into the finals.

 

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Obviously we are a better than even chance in every remaining game of the season. After the bye with May back, Petty getting some rest on his 19 different bumps and lumps and Gawn getting to take a deep breath and so on, tipping rationally, game by game, would mean tipping no further losses!

On the other hand, if we haven't regrouped and refreshed after the bye, our next loss could very likely be our next game, against Brisbane.

Our last five games will all be against top 8 teams, and the top of the ladder won't be decided until the final round when we play Brisbane.

My overall prediction is a 17-5 final count, first on the ladder regained in the last game, and that the 2022 finals series will be epic for all involved.

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As selfish and as melodramatic as this sounds but I almost cried when Elliott kicked that goal at the 20 minute mark in the 3rd quarter yesterday. I honestly thought I am never going to see Melbourne win a premiership in person. Last year still doesn't feel real because it was on TV.

For what it's worth, I predict we will make the 8 but we will go out in straight sets. Unfortunately this year the curse seems to be hanging over us again and we are not handling and absorbing the pressure in big games, unlike last year. Hope I am wrong

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2 hours ago, dice said:

As selfish and as melodramatic as this sounds but I almost cried when Elliott kicked that goal at the 20 minute mark in the 3rd quarter yesterday. I honestly thought I am never going to see Melbourne win a premiership in person. Last year still doesn't feel real because it was on TV.
 

Nothing selfish about it mate.

As good it was for the MFC to win a flag, it was diabolical that the faithful missed out on seeing it in person due to a once in a century event. Nothing aside from a premiership at the MCG will ever make up for it.

No doubt one of the Carlton, St Kilda, Geelong or Collingwood faithful will enjoy their spoils at the home of footy this year as opposed to watching in lockdown.

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9 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Nothing selfish about it mate.

As good it was for the MFC to win a flag, it was diabolical that the faithful missed out on seeing it in person due to a once in a century event. Nothing aside from a premiership at the MCG will ever make up for it.

No doubt one of the Carlton, St Kilda, Geelong or Collingwood faithful will enjoy their spoils at the home of footy this year as opposed to watching in lockdown.

Goodness me, what a miserable post....

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9 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Nothing selfish about it mate.

As good it was for the MFC to win a flag, it was diabolical that the faithful missed out on seeing it in person due to a once in a century event. Nothing aside from a premiership at the MCG will ever make up for it.

No doubt one of the Carlton, St Kilda, Geelong or Collingwood faithful will enjoy their spoils at the home of footy this year as opposed to watching in lockdown.

Most Dees fans watch on the TV anyway so I don’t think it matters that it was in Perth.

Also, try not to be so indulgent in your self pity - it’s not helpful.

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17 hours ago, david_neitz_is_my_dad said:

Going to wait until after the game vs Brisbane, will make things easier.

We could be out of the 4 (that Saturday night) or back in rhythm.

Coud have been the same last Monday It was a very important  game for us and we failed

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2 hours ago, rpfc said:

Most Dees fans watch on the TV anyway so I don’t think it matters that it was in Perth.

Also, try not to be so indulgent in your self pity - it’s not helpful.

People are entitled to feel disappointed if they missed out on seeing a flag live, particularly those that have gone week in week out their entire lives, and purchase their GFG memberships year in year out.

On topic, we need to address a number of onfield issues and hope for a change of luck on the injury front if we’re to feature in the second last weekend of the finals.

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Hard to predict, is the last 3 weeks the indicator or the previous 17 weeks.

We don't seem to have that dare and fight at the moment.  Last year we fought when challenged last 3 weeks we caved.

Our remaining games is a lot harder draw than first half of year

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22 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Predictions and prognostications in AFL footy. A very very hard task. 
I can only see us winning 5 out of the remaining 9 games and that’s being optimistic or even a little mistioptic. 
15-7. Hmmm 4th??!?! Ouch. 
Freo and Brisbane pose real threats as interstate teams if they finish 1-2. We need top 2.  

I love optimisim, but I am fearing a 12 - 10 finish and 9th on %.

If we make Top 4 it will be heroic and confirm this team as something really special.  I will currently take 8th to 5th with both hands.

My views are all injury driven from last Monday .

But as Matthew Lloyd says, at least we know the issues mid-season and have time on our side.

Edited by Demon17
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2 hours ago, Kent said:

Coud have been the same last Monday It was a very important  game for us and we failed

Why do you feel it was very important?  We all love to beat the magpies but that doesn’t necessarily make it important does it?

Yes, we’re not playing at the level we saw late last year but even with the loss we are effectively equal first with 9 rounds to go. Well positioned with plenty of time to get things right (whatever your individual take on what is currently not right).

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