GRAND FINAL: Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs

[old dee 22,927]

25 minutes ago, longsuffering said:

I see in the West Australian that there is a petition to have Neale Daniher at the GF to hand over the Cup. Does anyone over here know about it.

He said today he would not go. 

[Mickey 4,173]

Interesting listening to David King on SEN today, for those who are all in on the dogs.

They beat us in rnd 19 by 20 points. The expected score (I know, strange stat) for that game had it as a draw. They also scored the lost points ever from forward 50 stoppages. That won't happen again.

 So, if we score at at least the AFL average  and don't let them score a record for forward 50 stoppages, we win.

The dogs won't beat us. Only we can lose this.

[Demonland 65,486]

 

[Mickey 4,173]

4 hours ago, Demonland said:

Think I like ours better. 

 

I take it these aren't the official ones? Planning to have it framed if we win.

[Demonland 65,486]

27 minutes ago, Mickey said:

I take it these aren't the official ones? Planning to have it framed if we win.

Not the official ones.

[Demonland 65,486]

At least it wouldn't be a record @Jaded

[Demon17 4,599]

34 minutes ago, Mickey said:

Interesting listening to David King on SEN today, for those who are all in on the dogs.

They beat us in rnd 19 by 20 points. The expected score (I know, strange stat) for that game had it as a draw. They also scored the lost points ever from forward 50 stoppages. That won't happen again.

 So, if we score at at least the AFL average  and don't let them score a record for forward 50 stoppages, we win.

The dogs won't beat us. Only we can lose this.

I heard that session too.

King was very very bullish because Dees are a whole of unit system and can cover all eventualities. He couldn't believe Gerard was 50/50 and on what basis.

IMO the whole Port game has been overblown and the media have gone nuts in an emotional way. King has shown that up today to have no logic behind it and quoted a few facts and figures to support that contention as you mentioned.

The form lines clearly suggest Port were ripe for the taking.

Dogs barely beat Lions. Dees trounced Lions.

Port beat the Cats but didn't put them away, kicking only 12 goals 14 behinds. We smashed the cats from the first minute

This is why Dees are favourites atm. as it should be.

[Mickey 4,173]

14 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

I heard that session too.

King was very very bullish because Dees are a whole of unit system and can cover all eventualities. He couldn't believe Gerard was 50/50 and on what basis.

IMO the whole Port game has been overblown and the media have gone nuts in an emotional way. King has shown that up today to have no logic behind it and quoted a few facts and figures to support that contention as you mentioned.

The form lines clearly suggest Port were ripe for the taking.

Dogs barely beat Lions. Dees trounced Lions.

Port beat the Cats but didn't put them away, kicking only 12 goals 14 behinds. We smashed the cats from the first minute

This is why Dees are favourites atm. as it should be.

Recency bias, even when the Dogs game was only 24 hrs after ours.

I am never confident on the Dees winning. I am now

[titan_uranus 22,456]

2 hours ago, Pates said:

Call me (Harrison) petty but I kinda would like to force them to wear the away strip, in fact I think it should be the choice of the highest placing team as to what strip their opponents wear. 

That's silly. Do you really want a situation where we're playing, say, Geelong or Hawthorn, where there is no clash at all, and we end up wearing our clash jumper for no reason at all.

Maybe I'm a purist but in my view, the default position should be that in every game (H&A or finals), the away team wears its regular home jumper with white shorts, unless that poses a clash. 

49 minutes ago, Nasher said:

I trust this means the two jumpers won’t be deemed as a clash in subsequent H&A games, then.

I don't know if they've ever been deemed a clash?

They certainly weren't earlier this year.

[Mazer Rackham 14,969]

2 hours ago, Pates said:

Call me (Harrison) petty but I kinda would like to force them to wear the away strip, in fact I think it should be the choice of the highest placing team as to what strip their opponents wear. 

Wouldn't Bevo love that? "Those [censored]in' toffs, now they even want to tell us what undies to wear! I told you the entire universe is against us!!"

[Mazer Rackham 14,969]

35 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

IMO the whole Port game has been overblown and the media have gone nuts in an emotional way.

 

20 minutes ago, Mickey said:

Recency bias, even when the Dogs game was only 24 hrs after ours.

 

The media have memories like goldfish. If the games had been played the other way around, they would have spent Saturday wetting themselves over Bailey and the Dogs, and Sunday & today creaming themselves over Max, calling Goodwin the craftiest coach since Sheedy, and wondering how any team can ever stop the invincible Demons.

Can safely ignore anything and everything the media have to say about the game.

[titan_uranus 22,456]

1 hour ago, Mickey said:

Interesting listening to David King on SEN today, for those who are all in on the dogs.

They beat us in rnd 19 by 20 points. The expected score (I know, strange stat) for that game had it as a draw. They also scored the lost points ever from forward 50 stoppages. That won't happen again.

 So, if we score at at least the AFL average  and don't let them score a record for forward 50 stoppages, we win.

The dogs won't beat us. Only we can lose this.

Whilst I don't think it's so simple, I do like the idea that the Round 19 performance understated us and overstated them.

I similarly think Round 23 did the same thing to Geelong. I think they thought "look at the first half" and figured, they got 44 points up, just go back to the well and do it again and they'll beat us. When, in reality, they were only on top in Round 23 for 15 minutes and benefited from the most ridiculously one-sided period I've ever seen.

I hope the Dogs look back on Round 19 and place too much stock in it. I think the game was far closer than the 20 point margin suggested.

[Bay Riffin 1,420]

1 hour ago, Mickey said:

Interesting listening to David King on SEN today, for those who are all in on the dogs.

They beat us in rnd 19 by 20 points. The expected score (I know, strange stat) for that game had it as a draw. They also scored the lost points ever from forward 50 stoppages. That won't happen again.

 So, if we score at at least the AFL average  and don't let them score a record for forward 50 stoppages, we win.

The dogs won't beat us. Only we can lose this.

goodwin did mention they will adjust for those stoppages. frees were 25-11 doggies way that night. and hopwefully that does not happen again. I found it extraordinary and we still had the same scoring shots.

I believe if its dry and umpires are fairly even for both side, we will beat them easily. Ben Brown is a weapon now and Petty is playing so well.

If wet they are in with a big chance but still think we will be better.

[KLV 1,652]

I still can’t quite believe we’re in it!

[Jaded No More 58,135]

For those who live in Perth, how accurate is your weather forecast 12 days out? 
Because in Melbourne the weather forecast 12 hours out is wrong 98% of the time. 

[Nasher 33,068]

10 minutes ago, Jaded said:

For those who live in Perth, how accurate is your weather forecast 12 days out? 
Because in Melbourne the weather forecast 12 hours out is wrong 98% of the time. 

Degree of confidence would be more or less the same irrespective of where you live in Australia - it’s all done by the same forecasters using the same models. 12 days is too far out. At my work, where we rely heavily on weather forecasts, we basically ignore anything more than a week out. Personally I wouldn’t bother looking at the forecast before Tuesday. 

[Jaded No More 58,135]

1 minute ago, Nasher said:

Degree of confidence would be more or less the same irrespective of where you live in Australia - it’s all done by the same forecasters using the same models. 12 days is too far out. At my work, where we rely heavily on weather forecasts, we basically ignore anything more than a week out. Personally I wouldn’t bother looking at the forecast before Tuesday. 

Good. Because the forecast right now is for showers. 

[binman 38,462]

1 minute ago, Jaded said:

Good. Because the forecast right now is for showers. 

Not the ones I read!

[Deemania since 56 6,165]

On 9/12/2021 at 5:21 PM, D4Life said:

Gawn will dominate Martin and with Viney back in form, added to Petracca & Oliver our midfield will more than match it with the Dogs.

 

Don't forget the very talented Gus. He'll have a thing or two to do with our penetration and leading from the front - all game.

[Fat Tony 4,437]

The squiggle currently has us winning by 5 points. It aggregates all the models’ tips. 

The squiggle has our defensive rating higher than any previous premier in the system but below St Kilda in 2009. 

[bringbackthebiff 646]

2 minutes ago, Fat Tony said:

The squiggle currently has us winning by 5 points. It aggregates all the models’ tips. 

The squiggle has our defensive rating higher than any previous premier in the system but below St Kilda in 2009. 

Must be accurate. St Kilda had an amazing full back…

[Fat Tony 4,437]

2 hours ago, Mickey said:

Interesting listening to David King on SEN today, for those who are all in on the dogs.

They beat us in rnd 19 by 20 points. The expected score (I know, strange stat) for that game had it as a draw. They also scored the lost points ever from forward 50 stoppages. That won't happen again.

 So, if we score at at least the AFL average  and don't let them score a record for forward 50 stoppages, we win.

The dogs won't beat us. Only we can lose this.

We lost the free kick count 11-25 as well and that would not be in the expected score. 

[Chook 14,569]

7 hours ago, Demonland said:

 

Identical twins playing for opposition clubs? 

[Deemania since 56 6,165]

2 minutes ago, Chook said:

Identical twins playing for opposition clubs? 

Who was the ugly barstead on the right?

[Fat Tony 4,437]

2 minutes ago, bringbackthebiff said:

Must be accurate. St Kilda had an amazing full back…

It’s based on scores. Yes Zac Dawson was full back in the greatest defence.