generally speaking there's a top 3-4 sides every year, you can throw a blanket over teams 5-11 or so, 12-14 or 15 are hot and cold but can do damage on their day, and there's generally speaking a bottom 3 that are making up the numbers but that inevitably cause an upset or three along the way

i see us in that 5-11 range where yep, absolutely, can make it, or we can stuff it up for ourselves as only we know how

early days, but 2021 thoughts on teams based on nothing other than gut 'vibe' 

1-4: geelong, richmond, meth coke, footscray
5-11: brisbane, carlton, fremantle, gc17, melbourne, port adelaide, st. kilda
12-15: adelaide, collingwood, essendon, gw$
16-18: hawthorn, north melbourne, sydney

Pies, and cats

Collingwood although injuries will be their key factor trading 3 very good players and the way they did it will have a great effect on moral.

 Brisbane are the most vulnerable in mind unless they play most of there games at the Gabba.  There would not want Daniher to continue

There are only 2 certainties Geelong and Richmond.

No more excuses for Melbourne it just has to happen our list is stacked up for  the finals in 2021.

 

How quickly teams that managed Premiership trebles - Hawthorn/Brisbane - fell away with ageing lists. 
Hoping Cats manage to replicate it. 
 

I would be happy with 1/10th success of those three clubs this century. 
 

Only realised, Bulldogs, Port, Pies  and Scum aside, every Premier this century has gone twice - WCE/Swans - or three times now with Tiges

Edited November 13, 20204 yr by radar

5 hours ago, rjay said:

Collingwood, St Kilda and Geelong will struggle...

 

I think West Coast will too.

Think the top 5 from 2020 are a level above the rest, however there has never been a bigger leg up given than Brisbane this year.

Dogs, Pies, Saints obvious ones to try and surpass. Brisbane are potentially vulnerable.

Having said that, I think West Coast will improve next year. They had a horror run away from home which won’t happen again.

Richmond, West Coast, Port, Geelong would be my only guarantees at making the 8.

We would be in the next group which contains 6-7 teams that could all make it.

My hope is we charge on forward and push the top 4 - more realistic expectation is are fighting for a spot in the 8 until the very last round, same as 2020.

Just Hope game time gets longer again and Benny Brown can give North the bird by kicking 40+

We the MFC must aim for Top 4. 

The contenders around us can sort out their own situations

Geelong, Brisbane and Port all got big advantages for various reasons in 2020 but they all got better in the trade period. So did the Saints and Dogs.
 

Richmond didn’t have to. West Coast probably only treaded water and the Pies shed at a minimum depth.

I don’t think there’s a team that does a big drop, they should all win 10+ games. Port might dominate the home and away season but I see a very even top 8.

 

17 hours ago, whatwhatsaywhat said:

 

early days, but 2021 thoughts on teams based on nothing other than gut 'vibe' 

1-4: geelong, richmond, meth coke, footscray
5-11: brisbane, carlton, fremantle, gc17, melbourne, port adelaide, st. kilda
12-15: adelaide, collingwood, essendon, gw$
16-18: hawthorn, north melbourne, sydney

Collingwood won’t drop that far and Sydney will be a lot close to 8th than 18th. Their talls aren’t great but they’ve done an excellent job rebuilding their mids and flanker talent. 

4 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

Collingwood won’t drop that far and Sydney will be a lot close to 8th than 18th. Their talls aren’t great but they’ve done an excellent job rebuilding their mids and flanker talent. 

Teams will drop out, they always do every year. A bolter will emerge from nowhere, they always do. 
The MFC should be aiming for a Top 4 spot now that we have a serious key forward 

It’s not a possibility that at least two sides will drop out of the 8.

It’s an absolute definite that at least two sides will drop out and has been since 1995 when the final 8 was introduced the year before.

Anyone from this year’s finals can miss, even Richmond.

Edited November 14, 20204 yr by Bring-Back-Powell

On 11/13/2020 at 4:25 PM, COOLX said:

We will not make the eight in 2021 . How serious are we when we give N.Jones a one year contract. We recruited only one B grade player ( might change next year ) . Jetta is past it . Melksham ???? and playing Brayshaw and Viney in the one side has been a flop in the past. The Saints again out recruit us . Carlton and the GC and possible GWS will improve.  Don't know why we have Richardson at the club. Don't believe Goody is up to it as a coach. WE need a massive improvement from T.Mac in particular.

We recruit a proven goal scorer, but nope, that ain't the answer.

Waiting for T.Mac to improve, yep, that's the answer.

?

On 11/13/2020 at 3:37 PM, dl4e said:

I strongly believe what @Diamond_Jimsaid about our bottom 6-10 players. We will struggle to make  it.

No improvement from our youngsters and the Ben Brown effect?

Surely the side we want most to dislodge is Geelong?  I would be thrilled if they miss finals entirely. 

Pies have imploded to an extent rarely seen. I don’t see them recovering and heads eventually rolling seems inevitable.

I’m unconvinced the Saints are the real deal as they still have a void in top end talent.

I’ll back us in but it is largely based on hope. A lot still hinges on getting the forward mix right.

Swans are my smokey to bounce back in a big way next year. Got better as the year progressed and will add a generational key forward into the mix.

Pies and Saints to be replaced by Dees and Swans. 

5 hours ago, P-man said:

 

Pies and Saints to be replaced by Dees and Swans. 

Swans.....  wow thats a big call.

 Bottom 4 more likely for them I reckon.

There are changes to the top 8 every year. Some of them are surprising.

Would you have imagined GWS (6th on the ladder but made the GF) after 2019 to miss the finals in 2020?

Of course, there's us in 2018, but Hawthorn in 2018 also finished in the top 4 but then fell apart.

There will likely be at least one top 8 side this year who struggles next year.

It might be Collingwood. Of the three players to leave only Treloar really hurts them. They were moving past Stephenson and Phillips. But the damage to their culture caused by flogging players off and mismanaging the salary cap could prove more of an issue.

It might be St Kilda. I can't shake my view that they're flaky and play non-sustainable football.

It might even be West Coast or Geelong, given their lists are older and the end can hit quicker than expected when players are past 30.

Hopefully teams will figure out the Cats over the off-season.  they are old and slow and play keepings off.

Hawkins played an amazing year for his age, but it won't continue. No Taylor, no Ablett. the wheels have to fall off eventually and I reckon they will not make the 8 next year

Let's just win 14+ games and it doesn't matter what other teams do  :-)

9 minutes ago, DubDee said:

Hopefully teams will figure out the Cats over the off-season.  they are old and slow and play keepings off.

Hawkins played an amazing year for his age, but it won't continue. No Taylor, no Ablett. the wheels have to fall off eventually and I reckon they will not make the 8 next year

Let's just win 14+ games and it doesn't matter what other teams do  :-)

On the flipside, they've just added Cameron to their forward line, Smith complements Duncan and Menegola on the other wing and allows Blicavs to go back into defence to cover Taylor, and Higgins is probably an upgrade on 2020 Ablett.

Geelong have recruited well, but recent history isn't on their side. Going back to 2014, losing grand finalists have been Fremantle, West Coast, Sydney, Adelaide, Collingwood and GWS. Collingwood is the only side to finish top 4 after losing the grand final, and Freo, Sydney, Adelaide and GWS all imploded. 

It's deeply flawed logic that we need a team to drop out for us to make the 8 though. Who dislodged us after 2018? No one did, we stank it up and dislodged ourselves. All teams start 0-0; if we win 13+ games, we'll make finals no matter what the other teams do.

 

19 hours ago, P-man said:

Swans are my smokey to bounce back in a big way next year. Got better as the year progressed and will add a generational key forward into the mix.

Who?  Did I miss a trade or is it a new recruit? 

Collingwood and St Kilda.

West Coast has to drop off soon right? I think Geelong has one more year in them.

On 11/15/2020 at 7:57 PM, RalphiusMaximus said:

Surely the side we want most to dislodge is Geelong?  I would be thrilled if they miss finals entirely. 

I don't care who we dislodge once it's somebody and we finish strong not just making up numbers 

Saw the Pies game at Gabba where we gave them a horrible hiding so me thinks we take their spot and even climb higher into top 4.

 

When we win the flag, all the sides will have been dislodged by at least one spot!