2020 Final 8 @ Rnd 18:

• Port Adelaide
• Brisbane Lions
• Richmond
• Geelong Cats
• West Coast Eagles
• St Kilda
• Western Bulldogs
• Collingwood

History says one or two final 8 teams drop out the following year. 

For us to make finals in 2021 which team(s) drop out?

imv the most likely are:

• Collingwood.  They have been sliding for the last three years: 2nd, 4th, 6th.  The loss of talent and  treatment of players during the trade period will rock them a bit so can't see them in the 8.
• Bulldogs.  I'm not as bullish (no pun intended) as many media scribes.  From various accounts they have internal player/leadership issues.  Treloar improves them but will they get the most from the star studded midfield when some are played in other positions?    And while they will get JUH playing fwd they are still short of recognised tall fwds/goal kickers.  Naughton is a bit hot and cold.

StKilda seem to really have their act together on and off the field so don't think they will slide out.  Top 5 positions might move around but doubt any will slide out.

Other contenders are: GWS, Carlton, Freo.  Anyone of them can have a spot after we make it

Edited November 13, 20204 yr by Lucifer's Hero

Collingwood easily. The other 7 teams will be difficult to dislodge.

I would expect that even neutral supporters would think that Melbourne are the most likely team outside of the 8 to find their way in.

2021 final 8

Tigers ✅ Cats ✅ Power ✅ Lions ✅

Saints ✅ Pies ❌ Bulldogs ✅ Eagles ✅ 

Pies finished 8th and lose players.  
Other clubs get stronger or (tigers) have the exuding players and system to still be very successful. 

Who could come in?  Dees or Blues.  Blues get Williams and Saad who will add tremendous pace, and their youngsters get better. Many pundits will have the Blues into the 8 in 2021. 

5 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

2021 final 8

Tigers ✅ Cats ✅ Power ✅ Lions ✅

Saints ✅ Pies ❌ Bulldogs ✅ Eagles ✅ 

Pies finished 8th and lose players.  
Other clubs get stronger or (tigers) have the exuding players and system to still be very successful. 

Who could come in?  Dees or Blues.  Blues get Williams and Saad who will add tremendous pace, and their youngsters get better. Many pundits will have the Blues into the 8 in 2021. 

To sell newspapers and click bait.

Two teams will drop out, Collingwood the most obvious one, I have a feeling PA will struggle in 2021. 

They had a massive benefit playing a fair chunk of games at Carrara and their scheduling of games was also of big benefit.

Not completely sold on Saints either.  However, i also have a feeling Carlton will be a real contendor next year

Other than Richmond and to a lesser extent West Coast you could make a case for any of those teams dropping from the 8.

Port will benefit from two wins against Adelaide but will Brisbane split its wins with the Suns?

Geelong's  midfield are getting older. Can they go around again.

Saints could easily do an MFC and drop to 17.

Pies and Bulldogs...who knows

MFC...not really seeing where the improvement on 2020 will come from. Our bottom 6-10 are very ordinary.

1 hour ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

2020 Final 8 @ Rnd 18:

• Port Adelaide
• Brisbane Lions
• Richmond
• Geelong Cats
• West Coast Eagles
• St Kilda
• Western Bulldogs
• Collingwood

History says one or two final 8 teams drop out the following year. 

For us to make finals in 2021 which team(s) drop out?

imv the most likely are:

• Collingwood.  They have been sliding for the last three years: 2nd, 4th, 6th.  The loss of talent and  treatment of players during the trade period will rock them a bit so can't see them in the 8.
• Bulldogs.  I'm not as bullish (no pun intended) as many media scribes.  From various accounts they have internal player/leadership issues.  Treloar improves them but will they get the most from the star studded midfield when some are played in other positions?    And while they will get JUH playing fwd they are still short of recognised tall fwds/goal kickers.  Naughton is a bit hot and cold.

StKilda seem to really have their act together on and off the field so don't think they will slide out.  Top 5 positions might move around but doubt any will slide out.

Other contenders are: GWS, Carlton, Freo.  Anyone of them can have a spot after we make it

History actually says over the past 20 years its more lke 2.6 teams. Rounded up to 3.

I like your analysis, but I see the saints , albet the current media darlings, as the most vulnerable.

1 hour ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

2020 Final 8 @ Rnd 18:

• Port Adelaide
• Brisbane Lions
• Richmond
• Geelong Cats
• West Coast Eagles
• St Kilda
• Western Bulldogs
• Collingwood

 

As with anything, you could make an argument about any of those sides and why they could drop out:

• Port Adelaide - Their best players are now all over 30 (Gray and Boak will be 33 during the season, Rockliff, Dixon, Jonas and Hartlett are over 30), so while they've got some of the best kids going around, it wouldn't take much for their veterans to drop off.
• Brisbane Lions - They've had a really good run for the last 2 years, and were blessed with a massive home ground advantage this year, what happens when they go on the road again, and how much time will Daniher and Cockatoo waste of the medical team. Injuries will happen at some stage.
• Richmond - Complacency during the season would be the biggest issue, Dusty is deliberately about 10x the player when it comes to finals, but if the whole team played like that they could struggle (they are the least likely to drop out)
• Geelong Cats - Age, they've sold the farm to try and get Danger a flag, but they've got 10 key players who'll be 30 or turning 30 during the season, eventually the game can make everyone look old.
• West Coast Eagles - They get a huge home ground advantage, but looked very suspect away from WA, so a few off games could hurt them badly.
• St Kilda - There team is build using others development, I can't recall a team doing much damage that has been trade for as compared to built, so the team harmony and connection might not be as strong as other teams.
• Western Bulldogs - they probably have the best midfield in the comp, but the forward line will rely on a 21 year old coming off injuries and a pretty ordinary year, while their backline is pretty weak too.
• Collingwood - they just [censored] the bed at the trade table, and while hold some class, most of that is older (outside of Moore and Adams) and the forward line struggles to kick a score.

Conversely the question needs to be, well there's reasons why teams will drop out - why will the Dees come in?

My answer is that our core group of players, Max, Trac, Oliver, Viney, Gus, Harmes, Lever, Salem, Langdon, Lever, May and BBB have all played between 85 and 150 games, so should be entering their prime, 7 of them have played all their games together and outside of Max, May (both 29) and BBB (28) all will enter next season aged under 27. Add in a few veterans and role players (Hibberd, Melksham, AVB, Jetta, TMac, Tomlinson, ANB, Hunt etc.) plus the youth of Weid, Baker, Petty, Spargo, Kossie, LJ and Rivers and we've got a nice balanced list that should play finals. 

I think the Eagles may slide, not too sure about the saints, their best was pretty bloody good but their worst is pretty ordinary I can see them need a few years to build where they hover before launching for a flag. 

Interesting to see the dogs dynamic next year. 

Geelong will be 2-3 injuries away from being cooked for the year.

We don't need to dislodge any of them. 

Win enough games and we will make it.

The only teams we will be dislodging are the ones we knock out in the finals series.

2 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

2020 Final 8 @ Rnd 18:

• Port Adelaide
• Brisbane Lions
• Richmond
• Geelong Cats
• West Coast Eagles
• St Kilda
• Western Bulldogs
• Collingwood

History says one or two final 8 teams drop out the following year. 

For us to make finals in 2021 which team(s) drop out?

imv the most likely are:

• Collingwood.  They have been sliding for the last three years: 2nd, 4th, 6th.  The loss of talent and  treatment of players during the trade period will rock them a bit so can't see them in the 8.
• Bulldogs.  I'm not as bullish (no pun intended) as many media scribes.  From various accounts they have internal player/leadership issues.  Treloar improves them but will they get the most from the star studded midfield when some are played in other positions?    And while they will get JUH playing fwd they are still short of recognised tall fwds/goal kickers.  Naughton is a bit hot and cold.

StKilda seem to really have their act together on and off the field so don't think they will slide out.  Top 5 positions might move around but doubt any will slide out.

Other contenders are: GWS, Carlton, Freo.  Anyone of them can have a spot after we make it

Let's not forget that Collingwood, Dogs and St Kilda all only made it because we dropped games to easy beats in the final 3 rounds. I have doubts about WCE they bowed out of finals fairly easily. 

Edited November 13, 20204 yr by old dee

Collingwood obviously.

Not sold on the idea that Treloar significantly improves the dogs either. They were really poor at times this year.

Brisbane had a dream run but still looked ordinary and off the pace in the prelim. Joe Daniher will make a difference if he gets on the park. Big if. Losing David Noble could have an impact as well. They could be vulnerable. I'm going to tip them to have a poor season and potentially drop out.

Gee, not much love or sympathy for Collingwood being shown around here!  Shameful! 

Collingwood will re-invent. They always do. They have a highly competitive culture that we should aspire to.

Can't see us being better than any of those teams, and Carlton are also ready to go past us. Despite having significantly poorer lists than ours, I expect that both Ess and Haw will go past us soon enough too.

Didn't see anything from our group this year that suggests they are the ones who are going to turn the club around. We are paying way too much for underperforming senior players which is also making it harder to improve.

This club need a string of seasons where we show fight and compete for 4 quarters for the majority of the seasons. Results will take care of themselves but i think it's more important that we start to shift the culture than necessarily playing finals.

A more competitive general culture would help entice the kind of talent you need to bring to the club. That should be our focus. If we have another season where the players choose to take quarters and full games off we are going to suffer big time.

Hope I am proven wrong and our youngers guys take a huge leap forward and help set the tone for what we all want this club to be...

All of them 

We will not make the eight in 2021 . How serious are we when we give N.Jones a one year contract. We recruited only one B grade player ( might change next year ) . Jetta is past it . Melksham ???? and playing Brayshaw and Viney in the one side has been a flop in the past. The Saints again out recruit us . Carlton and the GC and possible GWS will improve.  Don't know why we have Richardson at the club. Don't believe Goody is up to it as a coach. WE need a massive improvement from T.Mac in particular.

I strongly believe what @Diamond_Jimsaid about our bottom 6-10 players. We will struggle to make  it.

The ones I think could slide out.

Pies I think need a reset with their list

Lions - great run for a couple of years but think they may fall back with regular travel back next year

West Coast - they will either go close to making a prelim or fall away completely. The cliff is close for Hurn, Kennedy and Shuey. Yeo has some groin issues and Nic Nat won't have the luxury of the shortened quarters.

Saints - still not sold on them see them as a team floating from 5th to 12th depending on injury and form

I think ourselves, Blues and Dockers will be the sides pushing to jump in

Hmm.  Other things being equal, just from a list changes perspective I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest gaining Ben Brown vs losing Treloar, Phillips and Stephenson is realistically worth a ladder difference of one draw. I'd say we will climb ahead of Collingwood.

Bulldogs are basically in the same category as us for 'possible but questionable' except where we threw away a couple of close games we should have won, they let their poorer games really run away from them.  Both teams have added valuable players highly suited to their needs.  Both might climb further.  Either or both could stumble.

West Coast being injury-ravaged in 2020 is a myth.  They had as many players play the full season or just miss one or two games as any other club - they just publicised their 'outs' better.  Never mind their sooking about being in Queensland, they had close to the most stable fixture with perhaps the least travel burden of any club outside Queensland, including the six home games in a row which saved their season. A total of three wins separate us from them and can easily see us being two wins better and them two worse, even if they don't quite drop out of the eight.

For the new improved St Kilda I think a fair analogy is North Melbourne from 2002 to 2019.  They'll be in and out of finals and almost never rubbish (North managed at least ten wins in 15 of those 18 seasons).  St Kilda will finish somewhere from 6th to 10th, roll dice each year.  Best of luck to them, I hope one year they grab a premiership with a surge at the right time. 50/50 for finals in 2021.

Speaking of dice, Geelong just maxed out their salary cap and cashed in their draft presence on one last roll. Simple schadenfreude demands they fall apart around mid-year.  In fact, the omens are good because I just spelled schadenfreude correctly on the first attempt.  So it is written, so shall it be.

 

A lot of things will change in 2021 as so many things were compromised this year so it’s a hard call to make. 
 

1. Pies - staring the obvious

2. West Coast- still struggle away from home

3. Saints - still yet to prove themselves and back up a good year in 2020

4. Cats are a sneaky chance to drop given their aging list. 

In order of most likely (only my opinion)

- Pies are the obvious one after their disaster of a trade period. We destroyed them when we were at our best (and they were at their worst), they limped into finals but credit to them beat WC. Still I think they’re vulnerable and a player revolt after the clubs trade actions could be on the cards

- Saints are my next pick only because I see a lot of us in them both historically and in their rise up. Rats is a good coach and I think they’ve done well, but losing to us showed they’re still fragile in the mental stakes. If they have a couple of things and results go against them early I think they’ll struggle to recover

- Port are my next pick but I think they’ll still be in contention for top 4, they played a lot better than I expected of them this year and they have some genuine quality in their line up but they are ageing. Will they be able to do a Geelong and stay up with their list getting on?

- Dogs have recruited well so I think they’ll be ok but they were very hot and cold last year

The rest I’d expected to be firmly entrenched pretty quickly, though I’d love to see an injury crisis hit Geelong. Tigers have had a few the last couple of years but still keep going, I hate saying it but I admire that willingness to keep fighting. 

Edited November 13, 20204 yr by Pates

Also not sure if Brisbane are as good as people think. They had an amazing year (2019) but let's be honest they had the opportunity of a life time this year to win a flag. If they play 5 more games interstate this year I see them losing 2-3 more games and then just scraping into the 8. 

I really you can put a reason for anyone to drop the out of the 8 except for the tiges

Most clubs in the comp are poorly coached, and/or administered. On that basis:

• the Filth definitely miss whilst Punt Road make it again.
• Moorabool Street are well administered to a point, but poorly coached. So vulnerable.
• Alberton is run by a nut job and the coach, although a top bloke, is not outstanding. So at risk.
• Vulture Street were chronically off the pace in the preliminary and had a remarkable home ground advantage throughout the season. Daniher is a bucket bet at best. Sell down.
• Roberts Road is well run, by and large, have a good home ground advantage, and is reasonably coached. They make it.
• Linton Street have a 124 year history of shooting themselves in the foot . . . so stand clear everyone. At best they are 50/50.
• Barclay Street have been poorly coached for a number of years, and despite the hype, have failed to deliver in any meaningful way for the last four years. Won't make it.

So, my prediction . . . only three make it and none of the bottom eight from 2020 are good enough to rise up. 

Edited November 13, 20204 yr by Queanbeyan Demon
Typo

Collingwood, St Kilda and Geelong will struggle...