Game plans, tactics and all that jazz

[640MD 2,809]

Love reading this analysis, could not do it in a month of sundays.

But I was there against Freo and watched closely against the Swans.

after half time in each match we "got done" in the centre each time  probably for different reasons,

and we got out muscled or for football smarts (read free kicks perhaps) in the backline.

also probably for different reasons each week . Except that May was missing and Petty NQR.

 

Our forwards need some other mix, as much as I like Tmac, I cannot believe he is the reason the forwards are not working. Fritta, Spargo and Kossy rarely waste a chance to pass to someone or score.  Is it simply the way its coming out of the centre or wings into the f50.

 

Will read others comments with much interest, makes my friends think I know what I am talking about,   cheers   Go Dees

And does anyone know (for 100%) that we might be loading, whatever that really means apart from running a bit flat in the last half of the last quarter.  Why do it after a 30 point lead.    Thanks to anyone who reads or replies , 

 

[deelusions from afar 1,613]

I thought the vision they showed on the couch last night was interesting - it showed Sydney and Fremantle holding their defenders back so that when we won the ball back we would blindly kick it back to them or look up and realise there's no where to go.

It's the same thing that we've been doing to teams the last 1.5-2 years.

I'm sure we'll work our way through this but I wouldn't mind us implementing some set plays for players who can kick goals from outside 50 - we never do this which means teams flood back onto our forwards.

[rpfc 27,494]

Diagnosis: 

1. Pressure is down and we are getting fewer turnovers in our forward half.

This is by design I think and as I said for the last few weeks, ramping it up is not easy and even inevitable. Changing the way you play because it is taxing is dangerous and definitely ‘flirting with form’

Answer: Simple one, lift your pressure from the wings to the forward line. Spargo, ANB, Sparrow, et al. If not, Bedford will, Chandler will. Fixing this gets us in the hunt to win games against good teams.

2. Connection between players is breaking

The singular reason we were so dominant in the finals last year was the culmination of the connection between the players. What this means is when there are 2 players going for the tackle, that means one of those players made the decision to not trust their teammate to make the tackle, that left a free opposition player free and away they go. You can look at a number of contests for the last 2 months and see this happening. Immature teams have this issue. Too many up for marks, too many guarding space instead of defending the player with the ball.

Answer: This one is tougher, it’s about trust amongst the group. This is how ‘rope players’ become more than the sum of their parts; they are trusted to do the 2 or 3 things they can do well and release the best players to be expansive and damaging. Get this right and we should win against most teams.

3. Star players consistency.

Lever is hurt, Petracca is down, Gawn is up and down this year, May is an [censored], Langdon is getting tagged, Fritsch is getting swamped - all these excuses may or may not be valid but this is the last piece to why we were so dominant - our star players were luminescent when it mattered.

Summary

So get back to valuing your actual gameplan (and rest players if they can’t execute), get trust back in the group, and get your best players back to health and form. 

It’s not hard to figure out and we did 11 months ago, but it’s also not easy at all…

[MrFreeze 1,387]

I saw us chip the ball around and work up the ground well today... until we got to just outside the 50 arc - we come to a dead stop and allow their talls to set up behind the ball. 

When we enter with speed we got our marks inside 50. 

[brendan 3,390]

We are ranked 17th in the AFL for pressure with just Essendon behind us, that’s it in a nutshell really last year we were 1st so clearly players are not going as hard as last year our game starts at the contest but if we don’t pressure for 4 quarters then our game plan falls apart, hopefully we can turn it around 

[layzie 28,931]

I might be completely off with this but our gameplan usually involves playing a 'high line' and press. Yesterday in transition there were often times when we had a moderate buildup to entering 50 yet no-one in the 50 while Collingwood setup behind the ball quite ball. If we are in fact sitting back a bit then I'd say this is a clear directive to cover the loss of May just make sure the bodies are back there. It's possible that this is affecting our pressure ratings too as we are now allowing more opposition ball in the forward half. 

Unfortunately I was too ill to be there yesterday but for anyone who was there, were you able to see what part of the ground guys like Lever and Petty were standing in when the ball was forward of centre?

Obviously this theory is a little bunk when there were a number of turnovers by us in the middle that caught us off guard and they scored from. I don't know, but it would be good to find out what is different and if it is just personnel missing or system partially failing. 

[binman 38,416]

23 minutes ago, brendan said:

We are ranked 17th in the AFL for pressure with just Essendon behind us, that’s it in a nutshell really last year we were 1st so clearly players are not going as hard as last year our game starts at the contest but if we don’t pressure for 4 quarters then our game plan falls apart, hopefully we can turn it around 

When you say we are 17th in pressure, what metric are you using?

[brendan 3,390]

1 hour ago, binman said:

When you say we are 17th in pressure, what metric are you using?

Not sure I seen the stat yesterday think someone tweeted it but it said we are 17th for pressure 

[rpfc 27,494]

3 hours ago, binman said:

When you say we are 17th in pressure, what metric are you using?

Probably the same one that had us first last year.

None of these metrics are perfect but they are indicative. 

We are playing with less pressure on the ball carrier and it is totally stuffing up where we get our turnovers, where our forwards are, and how quickly we can get the ball to them in dangerous spots.

[BW511 2,256]

15 minutes ago, rpfc said:

Probably the same one that had us first last year.

None of these metrics are perfect but they are indicative. 

We are playing with less pressure on the ball carrier and it is totally stuffing up where we get our turnovers, where our forwards are, and how quickly we can get the ball to them in dangerous spots.

So if we were a little sluggish due to training loads, that would effect our ability to apply the 100% committed pressure we built our premiership on?

 

Edited June 14, 2022 by BW511

[rpfc 27,494]

3 minutes ago, BW511 said:

So if we were a little sluggish due to training loads, that would effect our ability to apply the 100% committed pressure we built our premiership on?

 

That’s a red herring. Our pressure has not been up to standard most of the year. Now other things are falling down; connection and form of our stars.

[Ted Lasso 16,803]

Personally i feel watching us play that we're lacking the dare with the ball that we had at our best, we're just going a little bit slow, sideways and doubting ourselves too often. 

I think we play our best when we attack and play on instinct and if we do turn it over we back ourselves to win it back. that's what turned around the grand final and won us the flag. 

 

[rpfc 27,494]

4 minutes ago, Dwight Schrute said:

Personally i feel watching us play that we're lacking the dare with the ball that we had at our best, we're just going a little bit slow, sideways and doubting ourselves too often. 

I think we play our best when we attack and play on instinct and if we do turn it over we back ourselves to win it back. that's what turned around the grand final and won us the flag. 

 

Yes, the players don’t trust themselves or their teammates as much as they did to run and to be there when they run.

[dimmy 1,114]

Have to agree. In the final Qtr we dropped the ball /or fumbled at least half a dozen times at the Middle/HF area whish would have given us a great scoring opportunity. Lever is not a 1on 1 defender and we got exposed back there.

Brayshaw has turned into an elite HBF/W.

ON A LIGHTER NOTE:

Pre match jason Dunstall was giving the big spiel that Weiderman must seize his opportunity today and attack the ball....etc..etc.Everyone was looking at him openmouthed. Eventually someone said there is a problem with that...!!  He is not in the side !!!!🙃😄 Worth the months subscription to Foxtel !! (Spoilt by BT's inane commentary.) 

I would much prefer that Foxtel use their own (except fot HOWiiiiiiieeeeeeeeeeeee). They can do it for interstate matches.

[binman 38,416]

4 hours ago, brendan said:

Not sure I seen the stat yesterday think someone tweeted it but it said we are 17th for pressure 

I wonder if it is the so called "four core' stats that champion data aggregate to create a 'pressure' rating.

I can't recall exactly what the four stats are - one is 'without the ball' (which if I understand includes stuff iike defensive running and spread)

.I'm not sure if collectively those four things define pressure. They might, but it's interesting because our contested ball and tackle numbers, which are measures to some degree of pressure, are pretty much the same as last year.

King and montagna have been banging on about it all season - and mentioned before the freo game that we were number one in the championship data 'core four' in 2021, but were 18th  this year.

There's a couple of queries I have in regard to that bit of data.

The 2021 ranking was post the full season. What was it at the corresponding stage in 2021 (ie at tgis point in the season). That is important contextual because you are not comparing apples and apples otherwise 

The other query is why there has been such a dramatic drop in that measure (1st to 18th).

God bless his cotton socks, robbo asked king and montagna why there had been such a drop, and followed up with 'do you rhibk it is deliberate, or some such.

Unsurprisingly, neither had an answer for either question.

Go figure.

Very interesting questions though, and I an to explore them on tbe podcast tonight.

Dies anyone have and theories or hypothetical answers to those two questions?

Edited June 14, 2022 by binman

[roy11 2,930]

We had a relatively soft start to the year opponent wise (for the most), we didn't really put the sword through any team, just did a professional job and did what was required for the win. If that is is on purpose, would be curious how easy it would be to turn the switch back on pressure wise/being relentless for longer periods etc.

[Bates Mate 3,890]

3 hours ago, Dwight Schrute said:

Personally i feel watching us play that we're lacking the dare with the ball that we had at our best, we're just going a little bit slow, sideways and doubting ourselves too often. 

I think we play our best when we attack and play on instinct and if we do turn it over we back ourselves to win it back. that's what turned around the grand final and won us the flag. 

 

I agree, we are playing it way too "safe" in all aspects from kick ins, to ball movement around the ground,to forward entries. It's actually the way we are instructed to play. Don't forget late in the 3rd QTR of the GF our boy's where told to slow it down after getting back into the game with a bit of dare and dash. Thankfully clarry and trac took it upon themselves to go full throttle. Unfortunately we are 85% safe most of the game we need a bit more dare and dash back.

[Cheap Seats 3,300]

7 hours ago, rpfc said:

Diagnosis: 

1. Pressure is down and we are getting fewer turnovers in our forward half.

This is by design I think and as I said for the last few weeks, ramping it up is not easy and even inevitable. Changing the way you play because it is taxing is dangerous and definitely ‘flirting with form’

Answer: Simple one, lift your pressure from the wings to the forward line. Spargo, ANB, Sparrow, et al. If not, Bedford will, Chandler will. Fixing this gets us in the hunt to win games against good teams.

2. Connection between players is breaking

The singular reason we were so dominant in the finals last year was the culmination of the connection between the players. What this means is when there are 2 players going for the tackle, that means one of those players made the decision to not trust their teammate to make the tackle, that left a free opposition player free and away they go. You can look at a number of contests for the last 2 months and see this happening. Immature teams have this issue. Too many up for marks, too many guarding space instead of defending the player with the ball.

Answer: This one is tougher, it’s about trust amongst the group. This is how ‘rope players’ become more than the sum of their parts; they are trusted to do the 2 or 3 things they can do well and release the best players to be expansive and damaging. Get this right and we should win against most teams.

3. Star players consistency.

Lever is hurt, Petracca is down, Gawn is up and down this year, May is an [censored], Langdon is getting tagged, Fritsch is getting swamped - all these excuses may or may not be valid but this is the last piece to why we were so dominant - our star players were luminescent when it mattered.

Summary

So get back to valuing your actual gameplan (and rest players if they can’t execute), get trust back in the group, and get your best players back to health and form. 

It’s not hard to figure out and we did 11 months ago, but it’s also not easy at all…

I largely agree with your analysis.

I would like to add a few other things we are not doing from last year, and i don't know what the solutions are.

- Unable to hold the ball in our F50 - getting rebounded and counter attacked far too easily

- Unable to intercept - not enough pressure on the ball and being rebounded out of F50 and counter attacked which is against the slow play mantra we want and losing contested situations and ground balls.

- Poor F50 connection - finishing and converting has been terrible

- Drop off scoring opportunities - fumbles and poor skills combined, as well as stars not having an impact.

 

I think for a while we were getting away with a few things which are being exploited against really good side. A lot of media focus has been on defense, which is our main KPI but our lack of class forward has been really telling. No only are we unable to score regularly but the ball is getting rebounded quickly for opponent scores.

I am not panicking as we have had injuries, form issues and structural issues, but gee whiz it is a throwback to 2020 where we won a ton of the ball and couldn't finish.

 

Edited June 14, 2022 by COVID Dan

[rpfc 27,494]

1 hour ago, binman said:

I wonder if it is the so called "four core' stats that champion data aggregate to create a 'pressure' rating.

I can't recall exactly what the four stats are - one is 'without the ball' (which if I understand includes stuff iike defensive running and spread)

.I'm not sure if collectively those four things define pressure. They might, but it's interesting because our contested ball and tackle numbers, which are measures to some degree of pressure, are pretty much the same as last year.

King and montagna have been banging on about it all season - and mentioned before the freo game that we were number one in the championship data 'core four' in 2021, but were 18th  this year.

There's a couple of queries I have in regard to that bit of data.

The 2021 ranking was post the full season. What was it at the corresponding stage in 2021 (ie at tgis point in the season). That is important contextual because you are not comparing apples and apples otherwise 

The other query is why there has been such a dramatic drop in that measure (1st to 18th).

God bless his cotton socks, robbo asked king and montagna why there had been such a drop, and followed up with 'do you rhibk it is deliberate, or some such.

Unsurprisingly, neither had an answer for either question.

Go figure.

Very interesting questions though, and I an to explore them on tbe podcast tonight.

Dies anyone have and theories or hypothetical answers to those two questions?

As I said last week, you don’t go back so quickly without a change in direction from Goodwin and co. They way we played with the suffocating forward half turnover game  is taxing and I said a month ago - you can’t just flick a switch and it is back. 

I think that they have flirted with their form so to speak and now need to concentrate on this basic and the rest can come along after.

As for why they did this - our dominant backline and structure provides the allure of comfortability - most teams were waves crashing on the rocks and now the rocks are overrun (or drunkenly concussed and complacent). But this has now let bad habits further up the ground to seed and we are turning it over to far away from goal and with our forwards too high.

Honestly, the better option to ‘save legs’ would be to rest players but due to ‘standards in hubris’ we don’t do that…

[layzie 28,931]

1 hour ago, binman said:

I wonder if it is the so called "four core' stats that champion data aggregate to create a 'pressure' rating.

I can't recall exactly what the four stats are - one is 'without the ball' (which if I understand includes stuff iike defensive running and spread)

 

This is what I think and really had no idea how it was calculated. But I have found this which hopefully explains it.

From Champion Data and from lowest to highest:

Pressure Act (Corralling) - Occupying space in front of the ball carrier to prevent them moving forward

Pressure Act (Chasing) - Pressure from behind by chasing, must be gaining ground or applying enough pressure to hurry the kicker.

Pressure Act (Closing) - Like corralling but with frontal or side pressure where the pressure player is on the verge of contact as the ball is disposed of. The difference between this and corralling is there will be immediate impact and the ball carrier needs to dispose immediately. 

Pressure Act (Physical) - Direct physical contact to the ball carrier as they are disposing or applying an effective tackle that prevents an effective disposal

Pressure Rating Points:

Coralling acts - 1.2 points

Chasing acts - 1.5 points

Closing Acts - 2.25 points

Physical - 3.75 points

If anyone knows how the pressure rating is formed or what a good one is I'd love to know but that seems to be how it's done. Hopefully Binman this is what you were referring to because otherwise I've just wasted the last 15 mins writing this haha. 

[Dr. Gonzo 22,485]

I was thinking about the drop in pressure rating today and came to the same conclusion as the posters above. Last year we were focused on sitting high and pressuring our opposition to keep the ball in our forward 50. This gave opposition less space to work in and often led to them coughing it up due to having to dispose of the footy under pressure and in confined space with less space for their teammates to get free as get out options.

This year (last few weeks anyway) we seem happier to sit our zone back more and let teams pick their way through to their high half forward. Not sure if this is to counter oppo tactics or to try and preserve energy or if it is unintentional but a byproduct of opponents using quick short passes to work through our zone. Whatever it is I don't like it. Our success has been built on forward half pressure, ANB, Spargo, Kozzie, Langdon, Harmes, Brayshaw harassing opponents to creat forward half turnovers. 

One of the things I did see yesterday was Melbourne players running forward in waves, it didn't happen often enough and we didn't always finish off our work either but it was the first time this year (probably bar the GWS game) I saw ball movement reminiscent of 2021.

I'm waiting with baited breath to see how we set up and perform after the bye. Will we fine-tune our press/zone or will we continue with the structure that's let us down the last few weeks.

Edited June 14, 2022 by Dr. Gonzo

[layzie 28,931]

11 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I was thinking about the drop in pressure rating today and came to the same conclusion as the posters above. Last year we were focused on sitting high and pressuring our opposition to keep the ball in our forward 50. This gave opposition less space to work in and often led to them coughing it up due to having to dispose of the footy under pressure and in confined space with less space for their teammates to get free as get out options.

This year (last few weeks anyway) we seem happier to sit our zone back more and let teams pick their way through to their high half forward. Not sure if this is to counter oppo tactics or to try and preserve energy or if it is unintentional but a byproduct of opponents using quick short passes to work through our zone. Whatever it is I don't like it. Our success has been built on forward half pressure, ANB, Spargo, Kozzie, Langdon, Harmes, Brayshaw harassing opponents to creat forward half turnovers. 

One of the things I did see yesterday was Melbourne players running forward in waves, it didn't happen often enough and we didn't always finish off our work either but it was the first time this year (probably bar the GWS game) I saw ball movement reminiscent of 2021.

I'm waiting with baited breath to see how we set up and perform after the bye. Will we fine-tune our press/zone or will we continue with the structure that's let us down the last few weeks.

My thoughts are very much along these lines Gonzo, we made the ground small and it was intimidating. Teams coughed it up in bad areas and we pounced. It’s my armchair opinion that to cover the loss of May (and even Langdon to an extent as he is limited) we decided sitting back a bit deeper with numbers was the way to go about this, and maybe it was. However it does move away from what the gameplan is built on and it is hard to apply forward pressure when you aren't as high up the field.

I hate to bring up a Soccer comparison because I know that not everyone likes it but in the EPL Liverpool went through a very similar things last year when their star Centre Back and leader Virgil Van Dijk went down with an ACL. This guy is akin to Steven May in many ways with his ability to cover territory quickly, strength in contests and also his ability to direct the troops on the field. The other thing with Liverpool is they typically play a high press where a lot of their goals come from the two full backs Alexander Arnold and Robertson who get very high up the field and put in damaging crosses if not scoring themselves. Van Dijk was so quick and able to react quickly that you never worried about pressing too high because he tracked back every time to cut out the danger without fail. When Van Dijk went down things changed dramatically. The two full backs had to sit much deeper than they were used to so they could cover while a few different backup centre backs and even midfielders were trialed through there but either injury prone or not able to offer anywhere near the same output. The different structural shape really did change everything and it ended up being a very average season.

The point I’m trying to make here is that while a team should never be relying on just one player and you should be able to cover for them, the loss of that player can sometimes have a real flow on effect structurally with the way you setup territory wise. Which as silly as it sounds can make a team look completely different. 

In footy a tactic or strategy never works 100% of the time.  On one day sitting back and letting them try to pick through us can work absolute wonders and you’re just waiting for the turnover, on Monday it almost seemed as if the Pies were relishing getting their hands on the footy more and getting a head of steam up. Those quick short passes succeeded in shifting our zone just enough to break through and kick the winning score.  

I also noticed more numbers running forward, which is strange because it goes against the narrative that we’re tired but where I noticed little ‘unrewarded’ running in the second half against Sydney last week I saw often waves of 2 or 3 players regularly. The real shame being that we fumbled relentlessly at those moments and failed to execute, Pies rebounded through the middle and you know the rest. 

Lastly, I supported the decision to drop Jayden Hunt and Trent Rivers in the last few weeks but possibly we could have used some speed to try and break a line when we had the ball deep in defence and nothing was working? Just brainstorming there but we did look predictable exiting the backline.
 

[Cheap Seats 3,300]

To be fair,

Last year we didn't beat the pies, and we were lucky to beat the Swans. Freo we played very early in the year. So for all the over reacting we might not be that far off where we were last year.

Time will tell post the break.

[JV7 2,339]

Call me crazy but I think the loss of Gawn may actually help our forward line connection... Many times he is flying for the mark with Brown & Fritsch and he invites our long bombing inside 50...

As strange as it may be his absence may be the catalyst to fixing our forward entries & connection. 

[Dr. Gonzo 22,485]

27 minutes ago, COVID Dan said:

To be fair,

Last year we didn't beat the pies, and we were lucky to beat the Swans. Freo we played very early in the year. So for all the over reacting we might not be that far off where we were last year.

Time will tell post the break.

Our firm doesn't concern me but our injuries do. I'm very interested to see how we perform after the bye.