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2020 Doomsday Scenario

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Demonland Legend

Demonland   70,269

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What’s your 2020 Doomsday Scenario?

Another Preliminary Final heartbreak ?, Demons start season 0-3 ?: Your AFL club’s doomsday scenario >>> Your AFL club’s doomsday scenario for 2020 season 


MELBOURNE – The Demons start the season 0-3 

It’s a long way back when you start the season with three losses on the trot – and Simon Goodwin’s side don’t have the easiest of introductions in 2020. The Demons travel to Perth to play West Coast in Round One before taking on GWS at the MCG in Round Two. In both matches, Melbourne’s opposition will start as favourites. A home game against Fremantle in Round Three shapes as the club’s best opportunity to walk away with the four points, but even that match isn’t straightforward. But start the season at 0-3 and you can all but kiss finals goodbye.

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La Dee-vina Comedia Legend

La Dee-vina Comedia   16,644

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39 minutes ago, Demonland said:

What’s your 2020 Doomsday Scenario?

Another Preliminary Final heartbreak ?, Demons start season 0-3 ?: Your AFL club’s doomsday scenario >>> Your AFL club’s doomsday scenario for 2020 season 


MELBOURNE – The Demons start the season 0-3 

It’s a long way back when you start the season with three losses on the trot – and Simon Goodwin’s side don’t have the easiest of introductions in 2020. The Demons travel to Perth to play West Coast in Round One before taking on GWS at the MCG in Round Two. In both matches, Melbourne’s opposition will start as favourites. A home game against Fremantle in Round Three shapes as the club’s best opportunity to walk away with the four points, but even that match isn’t straightforward. But start the season at 0-3 and you can all but kiss finals goodbye.

Sloppy "journalism". Right now, it's quite correct that our opposition are the favourites, but if we beat WCE in Round 1 and GWS loses their first game to Geelong, we could well start favourites. To write definitively that the opposition "will start as favourites" is just silly and asking to be criticised.

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Demonland Legend

Demonland   70,269

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8 minutes ago, Demon3 said:

Hard to argue with that really. Getting a win in R1 is not the be all and end all, but imagine sneaking R1 in Perth, what a boost that would be.

Last year when we lost the first two on the trot the stats were that not many teams ever make the finals from 0-2. 0-3 would be a disaster.

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Mel Bourne Redleg

Mel Bourne   4,389

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Don’t think we’ll win the first two, but we should beat Freo. 
 

WCE over there will take something ridiculously special, and GWS are in rude health right now. Whoever manages their injuries is doing a great job. 

 

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Bring-Back-Powell Legend

Bring-Back-Powell   14,363

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The first two are bloody tough but the draw opens up a bit between rounds 3-11 as six of those games involve non 2019 finalists and another against Essendon who I don't rate this year.

We just need to keep our percentage intact after round 2 with two close losses and then launch from round 3 onwards. 

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Demon17 Redleg

Demon17   5,060

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4 hours ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Sloppy "journalism". Right now, it's quite correct that our opposition are the favourites, but if we beat WCE in Round 1 and GWS loses their first game to Geelong, we could well start favourites. To write definitively that the opposition "will start as favourites" is just silly and asking to be criticised.

Couldn't have said it better.  Fox sports/news Corp rubbish and click bait. 

 

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Wiseblood Legend

Wiseblood   24,637

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0-2 doesn't worry me, unless we got smashed in both contests.  GWS and the Eagles on their home deck are tough propositions for any team to kick off the season.

However, following that up to be, say 1-5 or 2-6 would be a horror scenario and one we probably couldn't come back from.  As BPP says above, our draw is much better after the first two, but if we do lose those two then we'll need to ensure we turn the tide pretty quickly.

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jnrmac Legend

jnrmac   19,893

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History says you start 0-3 you will be highly unlikely to make finals. An added factor for us is that we have a whole new coaching panel that needs to gel and have their act together ASAP.

Beat WCE and all of a sudden our season is off to a flyer.

Get well beaten by WCE and the pressure will start. Given our background and recent history, an 0-3 start will likely our season is all over and Goodwin and the playing group will be under huge pressure.

Its a  binary outcome for the Dees it would seem.

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old dee Legend

old dee   23,492

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33 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

History says you start 0-3 you will be highly unlikely to make finals. An added factor for us is that we have a whole new coaching panel that needs to gel and have their act together ASAP.

Beat WCE and all of a sudden our season is off to a flyer.

Get well beaten by WCE and the pressure will start. Given our background and recent history, an 0-3 start will likely our season is all over and Goodwin and the playing group will be under huge pressure.

Its a  binary outcome for the Dees it would seem.

Particularly Goodwin jnr. It is difficult to replace a dozen players but easy to replace one coach

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sue Trident

sue   9,006

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54 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

Couldn't have said it better.  Fox sports/news Corp rubbish and click bait. 

 

While it is click bait etc, it is true that as of now you'd have to say they would be favourites to beat us. 

The AFL hasn't done us any favours in kicking off the season this way even if the rest of the draw looks good.

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Lord Travis Trident

Lord Travis   10,468

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Only 3 teams in the last decade have made finals from a 0-2 start to the season. Those are tough odds to overcome. Those teams were Sydney in both 2014 and 2017, and Collingwood in 2018.

Only one team has made finals from 0-3 or worse - Sydney 2017.

If we, or any other team are 0-3, it’s basically game over.

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Wilbur Demon

Wilbur   447

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I'm more  concerned  about  fighting  off  the  inevitable corona  virus  zombies 

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dworship Redleg

dworship   3,342

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4 hours ago, Lord Travis said:

Only 3 teams in the last decade have made finals from a 0-2 start to the season. Those are tough odds to overcome. Those teams were Sydney in both 2014 and 2017, and Collingwood in 2018.

Only one team has made finals from 0-3 or worse - Sydney 2017.

If we, or any other team are 0-3, it’s basically game over.

I think you would have to look at the scenario a little deeper. Playing WC over there (where I suspect we will get the 2 WC umpires)

Followed up by the AFL love child and runner up in last years Premiership, would not be the normal start to a season in most of those cases. So those two loses would normally come at a different part of the year. Getting those 2 out of the way in the first 2 rounds shouldn't have any bearing on the rest of the season.

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Lord Travis Trident

Lord Travis   10,468

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9 hours ago, dworship said:

I think you would have to look at the scenario a little deeper. Playing WC over there (where I suspect we will get the 2 WC umpires)

Followed up by the AFL love child and runner up in last years Premiership, would not be the normal start to a season in most of those cases. So those two loses would normally come at a different part of the year. Getting those 2 out of the way in the first 2 rounds shouldn't have any bearing on the rest of the season.

It’s not impossible, but going by data this century it’s a 1.6% chance of finals if we are 0-2. It’s a 0.5% chance of finals if we’re 0-3. 

Tough start to the season for us, but we just have to win.

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