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2020 Doomsday Scenario



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15 minutes ago, Lord Travis said:

It’s not impossible, but going by data this century it’s a 1.6% chance of finals if we are 0-2. It’s a 0.5% chance of finals if we’re 0-3. 

Tough start to the season for us, but we just have to win.

If we look at the glass half full, then we can say that we play well on the Eagles home deck and I fancy our chances on the G against the Giants. 

Glass half empty says... It's Melbourne. 

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1 hour ago, Lord Travis said:

It’s not impossible, but going by data this century it’s a 1.6% chance of finals if we are 0-2. It’s a 0.5% chance of finals if we’re 0-3. 

Tough start to the season for us, but we just have to win.

Does Demonland have a resident mathematician? While those percentage chances are based on actual events, I'm not sure that the cause and effect holds true. In other words, just because the longish term average gives those results, I don't believe it necessarily has to hold true. What is an undeniable mathematical fact is that to play finals team have to have more wins (or sometimes percantage) than the team that finishes ninth. Where those wins and losses come from shouldn't make a difference. A team could win the first 13 games and lose the rest or lose the first nine and win the remaining 13 and end up in exactly the same position on the ladder.

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2 hours ago, Lord Travis said:

It’s not impossible, but going by data this century it’s a 1.6% chance of finals if we are 0-2. It’s a 0.5% chance of finals if we’re 0-3. 

Tough start to the season for us, but we just have to win.

 

11 hours ago, dworship said:

I think you would have to look at the scenario a little deeper. Playing WC over there (where I suspect we will get the 2 WC umpires)

Followed up by the AFL love child and runner up in last years Premiership, would not be the normal start to a season in most of those cases. So those two loses would normally come at a different part of the year. Getting those 2 out of the way in the first 2 rounds shouldn't have any bearing on the rest of the season.

I’m a little suss on the seemingly cut-throat and ominous nature of going 0-3. For a start, a team did it and made finals not that long ago, and it wasn’t like that team was even the best in the competition at the time. Going 0-3 is technically no different to losing three games in a row at any given point of the season, and plenty of teams have done that and made finals. The most plausible explanations for the history of “0-3” are a combination of mentality, luck of the draw (literally) and for most of it’s history, a much more uneven league. 

Essentially I’m asking for DL not to turn into Jonestown should it happen. 
 

 

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On 2/13/2020 at 10:48 AM, Bitter but optimistic said:

From memory both Sydney and Geelong have made finals from 5 or 6 down 

 

I wouldn’t back us in that situation however 

I wouldn't even put a Monopoly House on it!

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On 2/13/2020 at 5:04 PM, Lord Travis said:

Only 3 teams in the last decade have made finals from a 0-2 start to the season. Those are tough odds to overcome. Those teams were Sydney in both 2014 and 2017, and Collingwood in 2018.

Only one team has made finals from 0-3 or worse - Sydney 2017.

If we, or any other team are 0-3, it’s basically game over.

We started 0-3 in 2006 and made finals.

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On 2/14/2020 at 7:46 AM, Wiseblood said:

Glass half empty says... It's Melbourne. 

Yes me too,   One beer or even only half,  I feel better ,  Melbourne will always win  Go Dees 2020

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