PREGAME: Rd 03 vs Essendon

[Buzzy 932]

30 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

I'm really starting to wonder if our brand/style/game already has had it 15 mins in the sun and is now old hat.

To even remotely work we need our very best players on the paddock and fit...it needs to be pretty dry and it needs the capacity to lock in the ball/contest.

This all seems very yesterday to me.

The rucking is now much more open and 666 all but precludes locking down that first scrum ( isn't it pretty much that )

The idea as I understand it is to simply push the ball into our 50 and relentlessly will it through the goals. There's not a lot of nuance or skill here just the idea that somehow the ball will pop out and be sent to a player within range.

That worked fine....until it didn't. And it doesn't anymore.

666 has opened up the ground ( too much for us I'd suggest ) To attempt to get the ball locked in we sacrifice manning their outside runners who once THEY get the ball can spread and deny us not only our ability to corral them...but simply we dont HAVE the ball. We no longer control the game, it's tempo or its style.

Invariably as they run and spread we aren't getting to them as that Roosy foundation of two way running seems dead and buried.

Other teams quickly create space and overlaps. All over red Rover..

Yes Essendon are ESSentially rubbish at the moment but so are we. They however can, and do spread well. They can and do run both ways ( better than us ) and they definitely have more players with pace.

I fear if they can get out of the middle 50/50 their way they'll score more often as our defense is in tatters. We still don't like to man up.

If they can deny us our contest, we'll lose.

It's all any team has to do.

We are a poorly skilled team - going forward it hurts us double, as we can't accurately kick to advantage - or take advantage of a flying shot at goal on the run from 50..  Too many rushed hacked kicks from players like Brayshaw, Neale-Bullen, Viney etc.

If I was playing against us I'd do exactly what most teams do - let us do the hard work then flood numbers back (don't even have to man up), and beat us easily on the break with pace and skill.  Cue some panic from Frost, a misjudgement of flight from Omac and voila you've got yourself a sausage or 10.

Against Melbourne you just sit back and wait for the kicking error.

You're right though, if they beat us at all out of the middle we are stuffed.  Imagine if Gawn went down this year?  *shudders*

Edited April 3, 2019 by Buzzy

[DV8 2,271]

14 minutes ago, Buzzy said:

How was Gawn beaten by Stanley?  Gawn had 53 hitouts to 27, and nearly doubled Stanley's AFL Fantasy points.  Disposals were 13-14 but Gawn's were all kicks. Gawn also laid 4 tackles to 0.  

He wasn't at his best but that's a dominant display over an opposing ruckman.

Effectiveness,  across the game...  his work was largely nullified.  he got a couple of clean taps away,  but not much,  and our Mids were congested, and coughed it up. 

Maxy did not take enough marks to assist us.

Max tried a few times grabbing the ball from the ruck,  and confused his teammates...  I don' think any of his grabs from the ruck came off.

Stanley was a good contributor for the Cats, taking marks around the boundary creating an target to get out of their D50.   He got away from Max a few times.

 

# its not about numbers... its all about effect.  Max was well down and didn't really do much creating.

Soemtimes you can try to do too much, instead of team.

Edited April 3, 2019 by DV8

[Binmans PA 26,227]

19 hours ago, old dee said:

The only thing to be decided on Friday night is the size of the loss. Reminds me of the Neeld days. No key forwards, poor delivery to those who are there. The key to our dreadful start in 2019. How on earth has this club failed to discuss / confront the Preliminary final  slaughter?  

After Friday night we will be in another rebuild phase. My God it is boringly familiar.

Glad to see original OD is back. The end of last year and all that positivity from you was unsettling. You add a bit of negative balance to things.

[DV8 2,271]

56 minutes ago, A F said:

  20 hours ago, old dee said:

The only thing to be decided on Friday night is the size of the loss. Reminds me of the Neeld days. No key forwards, poor delivery to those who are there. The key to our dreadful start in 2019. How on earth has this club failed to discuss / confront the Preliminary final  slaughter?  

After Friday night we will be in another rebuild phase. My God it is boringly familiar.

 

56 minutes ago, A F said:

Glad to see original OD is back. The end of last year and all that positivity from you was unsettling. You add a bit of negative balance to things.

Positively disturbing it was from OD last year. 

Now's the time OD... to get stuck into our 22+ Yr olds 

Go for therm OD.   crack in. ?

Edited April 3, 2019 by DV8

[beelzebub 22,225]

27 minutes ago, Buzzy said:

You're right though, if they beat us at all out of the middle we are stuffed.  Imagine if Gawn went down this year?  *shudders*

we dont go there !!

[picket fence 15,244]

21 hours ago, Wiseblood said:

Hey this Girl chuckin her head around aint new FLOOR JANSEN from NIGHTWISH can top this chic eeeaasy and she is so much better of a singer!!

Edited April 3, 2019 by picket fence

[Demonland 65,486]

THE NIGHT OF THE TORTOISES by The Oracle

Friday night sees two clubs of which a great deal was expected in 2019, facing off in the battle of the slow starting tortoises. Both have had calamitous starts to the season and are sitting at 0-2. One of them will, by the end of the evening, be seeing their season slipping away from their grasp.  

Both clubs are playing without confidence and without purpose. The Demons, who had the best-performed attack of all clubs last year, managed to convert 73 entries inside their forward 50 metre ar c into just six goals at the Cat tery on Saturday night. Their opponents who managed 25 less inside 50s scored six goals or more in the first, third and last quarters. That is as damning a statement of the team’s ine ptitude as you can get.

Leaving aside the fi rst 11 minutes of the season when it scored three goals to zip against Port Adelaide, Melbourne’s scoring has completely dried up and is a definite cause for concern for coach Simon Goodwin along with the decline of many team members who were in sparkling form la st year.

But the Bombers have been in a similar place in their two games, barely givin g a whimper against Greater Western Sydney and lowering their colours to an injury-hit St Kilda in their two matches.

With so little form to go by, it’s almost impossible to predict a result in this game so the only thing I can go on is history.

Melbourne is playing at home on a Friday night. Its last two encounters on that day and at that time were electrifying finals victories in front of large enthusiastic crowds that marvelled over the team's hardness and endeavour. The De mons haven’t had an MCG home game against the Bombers since 2010 so they should relish the reminder of how they played just four or five games ago in AFL terms.

Although neither side has many aces up their sleeves, the Demons can take heart from the fact Max Gawn returned to form last week in the ruck and Clayton Oliver was sensational in a losing team and in a midfield that came close to matching a very strong Geelong engine room. Their presence will, in my view, tip the scales in favour of the home side and hopefully, end a slump as the team has done in the past two years when facing Essendon. Last year's win started a six game winning streak that ultimately led the team into the finals and a top four berth.

There's not much to go on but if one of these sides is going to play the hare to the other’s tortoise this week then it had better be us.

Melbourne by 4 points.

THE GAME
 
Essendon v Melbourne at the MCG Friday, 5 April, 2019 at 7.50pm
 
HEAD TO HEAD
 
Overall Melbourne 83 wins Essendon 129 wins 2 draws
 
At MCG Melbourne 45 wins Essendon 66 wins 1 draw

The last five meetings Melbourne 3 wins Essendon 2 wins
 
The Coaches  Goodwin 2 wins Worsfold 0 wins
 
MEDIA
 
TV – Fox Footy Channel Channel 7 Live at 7.30pm
 
RADIO -
 
THE LAST TIME THEY MET Melbourne 16.12.108 defeated Essendon 10.12.72 at Etihad Stadium, Round 6, 2018
 
Melbourne started slowly but gradually took control and dominated the sec ond half. Gawn dominated the rucks while Salem, Hibbe rd and Jones got plenty of the football.
 
THE TEAMS  
 
MELBOURNE

B Jay Lockhart  Oscar McDonald  Neville Jetta 
HB Josh Wagner  Sam Frost  Christian Salem 
C Jayden Hunt  Clayton Oliver  Nathan Jones 
HF James Harmes  Sam Weideman  Kade Kolodjashnij 
F Angus Brayshaw  Tom McDonald  Jake Melksham 
FOLL Max Gawn  Christian Petracca  Jack Viney 
I/C Bayley Fritsch Michael Hibberd  Alex Neal-Bullen   Corey Wagner 
EMG Harrison Petty Braydon Preuss  Tom Sparrow  Billy Stretch  

IN Corey Wagner Josh Wagner

OUT Steven May (injured) Tom Sparrow (omitted)

ESSENDON

B  Aaron Francis  Patrick Ambrose  Conor McKenna 
HB Kobe Mutch  Michael Hurley  Adam Saad 
C Orazio Fantasia  Zach Merrett  Andrew McGrath 
HF Jake Stringer  Zac Clarke  Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti 
F Devon Smith  Shaun McKernan  Mark Baguley 
FOL Tom Bellchambers  David Zaharakis  Dylan Shiel 
I/C Matt Guelfi  Dyson Heppell  David Myers  Darcy Parish 
EMG Mitch Brown  Sam Draper Kyle Langford  Jordan Ridley   

IN Zac Clarke Kobe Mutch 

OUT Mitch Brown (omitted) Kyle Langford (omitted) 

Round 3 injury list:

Jeff Garlett (shoulder) – available
Charlie Spargo (jaw) – 1 week
Steven May (groin) – TBC
Jordan Lewis (hamstring) – 1-2 weeks
Aaron vandenBerg (foot) – 3-5 weeks  
Joel Smith (groin) – TBA
Mitch Hannan (knee) – 6-8 weeks
Jake Lever (knee) – 6-8 weeks
Jay Kennedy Harris (knee) – 10-12 weeks
Guy Walker (shoulder) – indefinite
Aaron Nietschke (knee) – seaso n

[Pennant St Dee 11,324]

It's time to change things up, last week wasn't good, but it was better overall than Rd 1 despite the bigger Margin

 Players who make things happen need to play and we need to focus on workrate and lower delivery inside forward 50 and applying pressure at the fall of the ball. The Bombers like us are down on confidence and we need to apply pressure from centre clearances to their defensive 50 and not allow them to run and carry.

Jetta  Omac  Hibberd

Jones Frost    Salem

KK     Viney    Harmes

Trac    Weid    Fritsch

Garlett TMac  Melk

Gawn, Oliver, Brayshaw

I/C Keilty/Smith, Hunt, Stretch  Wagner

only one of Keilty or Smith plays and Sparrow a bit stiff but omitting him for C. Wagner. Although I'm not sure the FD will make 4 changes 

Out. Sparrow, ANB, Lockhart, May

In. Wagner, Garlett, Keilty/Smith, Stretch

 

[Leoncelli_36 2,264]

Have Essendon got clash strip this year? I mean, we haven’t had a home fixture against them in son long, it hasn’t been an issue. Or are they still treated differently by the AFL on this issue ? 

[beelzebub 22,225]

3 minutes ago, Leoncelli_36 said:

Have Essendon got clash strip this year? I mean, we haven’t had a home fixture against them in son long, it hasn’t been an issue. Or are they still treated differently by the AFL on this issue ? 

Probably the least of our problems

[DubDee 20,753]

I reckon we need to kick 16 goals to win this. So going by last week we need 280 inside fifties!

ANB to top score with 3 goals 11

[old dee 22,927]

1 hour ago, DubDee said:

I reckon we need to kick 16 goals to win this. So going by last week we need 280 inside fifties!

ANB to top score with 3 goals 11

Very good DubDee 

[Deesprate 1,163]

2 hours ago, Pennant St Dee said:

It's time to change things up, last week wasn't good, but it was better overall than Rd 1 despite the bigger Margin

 Players who make things happen need to play and we need to focus on workrate and lower delivery inside forward 50 and applying pressure at the fall of the ball. The Bombers like us are down on confidence and we need to apply pressure from centre clearances to their defensive 50 and not allow them to run and carry.

Jetta  Omac  Hibberd

Jones Frost    Salem

KK     Viney    Harmes

Trac    Weid    Fritsch

Garlett TMac  Melk

Gawn, Oliver, Brayshaw

I/C Keilty/Smith, Hunt, Stretch  Wagner

only one of Keilty or Smith plays and Sparrow a bit stiff but omitting him for C. Wagner. Although I'm not sure the FD will make 4 changes 

Out. Sparrow, ANB, Lockhart, May

In. Wagner, Garlett, Keilty/Smith, Stretch

 

OMG no wonder we lose OMac to Frost to Weid to TMac. At the moment this is our best no wonder where totally no hope. So depressing. If this is our best. Unfortunately that is our reality.

[Diamond_Jim 11,827]

2 hours ago, DubDee said:

I reckon we need to kick 16 goals to win this. So going by last week we need 280 inside fifties!

ANB to top score with 3 goals 11

and that is a gameplan issue  ...it just doesn't work

[Bombay Airconditioning 5,941]

I’m pumped at the moment, I’ve got the MCG/SCG double. Flying down tomorrow morning for my first game of the year, returning Sunday afternoon. Then off to the SCG for Thursday night footy.  Expecting to be 2 & 2 come Thursday night with our season back on track.

[beelzebub 22,225]

16 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

I’m pumped at the moment, I’ve got the MCG/SCG double. Flying down tomorrow morning for my first game of the year, returning Sunday afternoon. Then off to the SCG for Thursday night footy.  Expecting to be 2 & 2 come Thursday night with our season back on track.

Don't stop the meds

[Deesprate 1,163]

34 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

I’m pumped at the moment, I’ve got the MCG/SCG double. Flying down tomorrow morning for my first game of the year, returning Sunday afternoon. Then off to the SCG for Thursday night footy.  Expecting to be 2 & 2 come Thursday night with our season back on track.

Optimism is a wonderful thing. 

[JV7 2,339]

I am really torn as to how I feel about tomorrow night. The new part of me who believed in this side for the last 6 weeks of the 2018 season says:

“it’ll all be ok, we’ll get miles into the legs, we had 100 tackles last week, we had so many inside 50s, the tide has to turn.”

Old & torched me: “we are gone, won’t beat Essendon & it’s season over, why bother even going tomorrow night”

This club has turned me into some sort of psychopath with a split personality. I must admit we were slow out of the blocks last year;

Round 1 - should have won but Geelong weren’t that great last year

Round 2 - jumped out against lowly Brisbane before they reeled us back, didn’t look overly convincing 

Round 3 - Slow start, jumped by North & won comfortably but didn’t look all that great 

Round 4 - Flogged by Hawthorn

Round 5 - Flogged by Richmond 

So there is still life (I must be in the new me personality this morning). We must simply win this week or it’s curtains & I’m going to Sydney next week so I don’t fancy the trip with the season basically gone. Cmon Dees

 

[Wiseblood 24,636]

1 hour ago, JV7 said:

I am really torn as to how I feel about tomorrow night. The new part of me who believed in this side for the last 6 weeks of the 2018 season says:

“it’ll all be ok, we’ll get miles into the legs, we had 100 tackles last week, we had so many inside 50s, the tide has to turn.”

Old & torched me: “we are gone, won’t beat Essendon & it’s season over, why bother even going tomorrow night”

This club has turned me into some sort of psychopath with a split personality. I must admit we were slow out of the blocks last year;

Round 1 - should have won but Geelong weren’t that great last year

Round 2 - jumped out against lowly Brisbane before they reeled us back, didn’t look overly convincing 

Round 3 - Slow start, jumped by North & won comfortably but didn’t look all that great 

Round 4 - Flogged by Hawthorn

Round 5 - Flogged by Richmond 

So there is still life (I must be in the new me personality this morning). We must simply win this week or it’s curtains & I’m going to Sydney next week so I don’t fancy the trip with the season basically gone. Cmon Dees

 

That's a fair point, JV.  We were a little slow out of the blocks, and we really struggled during Rounds 4 and 5.  

And what was the game that got us back on track?

Round 6 vs. Essendon.  It took us a half, but then we got the ball rolling (including two rippers from Maxy in the pocket) and we spent the next month and a half winning games of football.

Let's hope the same thing happens with the Bombers tomorrow night.  A big opportunity to get our season back on track, and I reckon we'll do it.

[Redleg 37,693]

10 hours ago, DubDee said:

I reckon we need to kick 16 goals to win this. So going by last week we need 280 inside fifties!

ANB to top score with 3 goals 11

Stop exaggerating.

On last weeks stats we would only need about 196 inside 50's.

[beelzebub 22,225]

Very surprised that there's very little love among the tipsters for the Windy Hill mob.

I would think we have a show tomorrow night...but am not even pencilling in a win here...so much is my distrust of our ability.

Edited April 3, 2019 by beelzebub

[640MD 2,809]

Come on Dees    Do it for me,   going to watch,  think it is a real cliff hanger  Dees by 4 points

[binman 38,462]

4 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

Very surprised that there's very little love among the tipsters for the Windy Hill mob.

I would think we have a show tonight...but am not even pencilling in a win here...so much is my distrust of our ability.

Tonight? 

[beelzebub 22,225]

Just now, binman said:

Tonight? 

Lol..had already corrected that

[Redleg 37,693]

10 hours ago, Pennant St Dee said:

It's time to change things up, last week wasn't good, but it was better overall than Rd 1 despite the bigger Margin

 Players who make things happen need to play and we need to focus on workrate and lower delivery inside forward 50 and applying pressure at the fall of the ball. The Bombers like us are down on confidence and we need to apply pressure from centre clearances to their defensive 50 and not allow them to run and carry.

Jetta  Omac  Hibberd

Jones Frost    Salem

KK     Viney    Harmes

Trac    Weid    Fritsch

Garlett TMac  Melk

Gawn, Oliver, Brayshaw

I/C Keilty/Smith, Hunt, Stretch  Wagner

only one of Keilty or Smith plays and Sparrow a bit stiff but omitting him for C. Wagner. Although I'm not sure the FD will make 4 changes 

Out. Sparrow, ANB, Lockhart, May

In. Wagner, Garlett, Keilty/Smith, Stretch

 

Considering the players we have available, that team looks far more balanced IMO and it would be Keilty ahead of Tim Smith as Tim Smith is smaller and less versatile than Declan.