Match Preview and Team Selection - Round 23

[Demonland 73,140]

THE STYLE GUIDE by Whispering Jack

The graphic shown this week during a segment of “On the Couch” laid out some extraordinary statistics about the Melbourne Football Club’s season to date. The numbers read as follows:-  

 

• Contested possessions differential – #2 

• Pressure – #2 

• Points for – #1 

• Points against – #9 

• Points from turnovers differential – #2 

• Points from clearances differential – #2 

• Inside 50 differential – #1 

• Time in forward half – #1 

• Forward half intercepts – #1 

• Points from forward half chains – #1  

 

This was a selection of the numbers available and is by no means all inclusive about the story of the team’s style this year. They tell the story of a team that’s willing to take games on and that plays an exciting, attacking brand of football but, while the both the style of game and the actual figures are impressive, until last Sunday, they raised a question mark about why this team was desperately fighting for its life as a 2018 finalist, rather than sitting comfortably in the upper echelons of the competition preparing for qualifying finals in the coming weeks.  

 

The question was answered partially by Age writer Michael Gleeson before that game in The questions the Demons need to answer where he wrote about the alternate AFL ladder:–

 

“It is the ladder that says what would happen if the team that lost the close games won them instead. So what would happen this year if the teams that lost games by 10 points or less won them?  

 

“The answer? Melbourne would be two games clear on top of the ladder.”  

 

Gleeson also alluded to the positive statistics such as the Demons’ #1 ranking in the competition for contested possessions but raised the spectre of its then inability to beat a top eight side and pointed to a wide gulf between its performances against top and bottom half teams.  

 

The answer according to Gleeson was that the team’s inability to stop the ball going the way of the opposition when it attacks. “Actually, the point is that Melbourne don’t defend.”  

 

That was part of the answer but it needed empirical proof and that came by means of the way that Melbourne finished off the game against the West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium on Sunday. 

 

In those final ten minutes, after their game-long lead had evaporated before their eyes and their season was on the line, they defended stoutly and showed they had learned the lesson of their soul-destroying loss on enemy territory a month earlier against Geelong.  

 

And they did it with the style that should hold them in good stead in the weeks to come. 

 

THE GAME 

 

Melbourne v GWS Giants at the MCG, Sunday 26 August, 2018 at 3.20pm 

 

HEAD TO HEAD 

 

Overall – GWS Giants 5 wins, Melbourne 5 wins 

At The MCG – Melbourne 3 wins, GWS Giants 1 win 

Past five meetings – Melbourne 2 wins, GWS Giants 3 wins 

The Coaches – Cameron 1 win Goodwin 0 wins

 

THE MEDIA 

 

TV - Channel 7, Fox Sports 3, Live at 3.00pm 

RADIO - Triple M 3AW ABC ABC Grandstand   

 

THE LAST TIME THEY MET 

GWS Giants 14.13.97 defeated Melbourne 10.2.62 at UNSW Canberra Oval, Round #, 2017  

 

The Demons suffered their second consecutive loss and dropped out of the top eight after they were thumped by the Giants in Canberra. Things started well enough with the opening three goals against the wind but GWS rolled into gear with the next eight goals and by the first break it was all but over.   

 

THE TEAMS    

 

MELBOURNE  

B: Neville Jetta, Oscar McDonald, Jordan Lewis
HB: Christian Salem, Sam Frost, Michael Hibberd
? Angus Brayshaw, Clayton Oliver, James Harmes
HF: Jake Melksham, Tom McDonald, Aaron vandenBerg
F: Bayley Fritsch, Sam Weideman, Alex Neal-Bullen
Foll: Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Christian Petracca
I/C: Mitch Hannan, Dean Kent, Charlie Spargo, Dom Tyson
Emg: Tomas Bugg, Jay Kennedy Harris, Cameron Pedersen, Josh Wagner

No change

GWS GIANTS 

B: Jeremy Finlayson, Phil Davis, Adam Tomlinson
B: Adam Kennedy, Nick Haynes, Harry Perryman
? Lachie Whitfield, Callan Ward, Jacob Hopper
F: Sam Reid, Jeremy Cameron, Aiden Bonar
F: Zac Langdon, Harry Himmelberg, Josh Kelly
Foll: Rory Lobb, Stephen Coniglio, Dylan Shiel
I/C: Matt Buntine, Lachlan Keeffe, Daniel Lloyd, Tim Taranto
Emg: Dylan Buckley, Isaac Cumming, Brent Daniels, Zac Williams

In: Josh Kelly, Sam Reid

Out: Brent Daniels (omitted), Ryan Griffen (hamstring)

It was the Jake Lever injury that sent Melbourne’s 2018 season into a month-long tailspin and three consecutive defeats in mid-season and which ultimately set the scene for the team’s revival that led to the securing of a berth in the finals.

The Lever departure required some tinkering with the defensive line up with which the selectors grappled, struggled and finally got right. There were other elements that required attention, small kinks here and there but despite the pain of the last gasp defeat by Geelong and the confused mess of the Swans game, the 17-point victory over West Coast last weekend, proved they were worthy of participating in the finals after an absence of twelve long years.

The irony is that Melbourne’s tough run leading into the finals with three matches on end against three fellow finalists is going to hold it in good stead in September.

As far as I’m concerned, coming up against Sydney, West Coast and the GWS Giants represents a perfect preparation, immeasurably better than say, the Cats, who were given the task of playing against witches’ hats on their own home turf in the finals lead up.

For the Demons, the game against GWS presents a perfect opportunity to tune up against quality opposition without in any way releasing the pressure valve. Aside from the remote chance of making it back into the top four should the Pies stagger against the Dockers, there’s a home final at stake (although Melbourne seems to play just as well away from home these days).

Thankfully, the failure of Port Adelaide and North Melbourne to stitch up opposition teams in recent games, has allowed the Demon faithful some temporary respite for their fraying nerves knowing their team will definitely be featuring in next month’s action.

They will no doubt recall the humiliation of their team’s encounter with the Giants in the national capital last year when, after kicking the first three goals against the wind, it conceded an unanswered 8 goals 6 behinds before quarter time to be well and truly blown off the park. The carnage in Canberra this week pales into insignificance against that dark day. 

The star for GWS was Josh Kelly who returns for them this week to make for a fascinating battle of the midfields. We know how strong the Demons are in this area with their young guns and iron man Nathan Jones. They will have the support of All Australian big man Max Gawn who should match up very favourably against Rory Lobb in the ruck contests but the Giants are the highest-ranked clearance team in the AFL.

Ultimately, I believe the Demons will triumph because of their forward line strength (they are the highest-ranked team for scoring, inside 50s and marks inside 50), the defence has at long last settled with Oscar McDonald and Sam Frost solid, and the visitors have the deeper injury list.

That’s enough for me to tip Melbourne to win an epic encounter at the MCG by 5 points.

[Graeme Yeats' Mullet 6,778]

2 hours ago, Demonland said:

The answer according to Gleeson was that the team’s inability to stop the ball going the way of the opposition when it attacks. “Actually, the point is that Melbourne don’t defend.”  

 

That was part of the answer but it needed empirical proof and that came by means of the way that Melbourne finished off the game against the West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium on Sunday. 

This is a really interesting point. We get rebounded against like a sling shot quite often. 

On the weekend against WCE Final Qrt 11:30 remaining, Spargo had a free kick from OOB on full 45m out in LHD fwd pocket. He centred to a contest 20m out, ball bounced off hands to wCE amd they ran the length of the ground without us getting near them until Hibberd in the back pocket.

This for me is an example of the above and I see it often. We press hard forward but often good teams break out the far side easily and are away

[What 18,810]

The job isn't done yet.

Beat GWS  , take confidence out of winning a big game at the MCG against a damn good side, take momentum into the finals and finish 5th with a home final.  (or 4th and the double chance if Freo produce a miracle vs Pies).

[titan_uranus 25,043]

It feels like we've barely played GWS of late.

We played them in Round 1 2016, then once last year, and now Round 23 this year.

So that's once in nearly three full seasons.

In the same period (i.e. from Round 2 2016 until now) GWS has played Sydney seven times.

Not particularly relevant/important, but just another of those AFL fixturing quirks.

[McQueen 17,867]

Travelling over for the game for another hit after last weeks awesome game but need some advice on seating please.

I’m assuming my Interstate membership will get me into GA on level 1, 3 and 4 according to the MFC site FAQ’s.

Where is the best section and how early would I need to line up to get it.

Alternatively, I’m happy to upgrade to a premium seat.

TIA

[Pates 9,660]

On 8/21/2018 at 1:41 PM, titan_uranus said:

It feels like we've barely played GWS of late.

We played them in Round 1 2016, then once last year, and now Round 23 this year.

So that's once in nearly three full seasons.

In the same period (i.e. from Round 2 2016 until now) GWS has played Sydney seven times.

Not particularly relevant/important, but just another of those AFL fixturing quirks.

I'm a really strong critic of the AFL's fixturing where it's possible to have played other teams twice before facing one team once. It's wrong.

One thing that improved massively on the weekend was our willingness to look for leads in the forward line rather than just popping it into a "dangerous spot". In fact I think most of the times we did that it rebounded up the other end. We had 19 marks inside 50 compared to WC's 8 and we definitely looked more organised going forward.

I would love Freo to get the upset of the round and set this game up as fighting for top 4, but realistically it is playing for 5th and a home final. Still lots at stake.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Gee, we are on TV nearly every week lately?.....wait until next year!

[dl4e 5,851]

I don't want to lose to this mob and then play them up there in the finals. They will have some more decent players back by then. 

[old dee 23,872]

18 minutes ago, dl4e said:

I don't want to lose to this mob and then play them up there in the finals. They will have some more decent players back by then. 

Unless there are a couple of injuries leading to outs of Hibberd and or TMac we will win this one. Never been more confident. 

[binman 43,791]

12 hours ago, McQueen said:

Travelling over for the game for another hit after last weeks awesome game but need some advice on seating please.

I’m assuming my Interstate membership will get me into GA on level 1, 3 and 4 according to the MFC site FAQ’s.

Where is the best section and how early would I need to line up to get it.

Alternatively, I’m happy to upgrade to a premium seat.

TIA

My favourite spot at the g is top of the Ponsford. I love the view from up there and being able to see the spread and formation of the players as the ball transitions from end to end. Also with a GA membership you get your choice of seats for a game like this one.

The only issue is that for smaller crowds the  bar is sometimes closed so you have to go downstairs. But if there is 30k it might be open 

[jnrmac 20,187]

"In those final ten minutes, after their game-long lead had evaporated before their eyes and their season was on the line, they defended stoutly and showed they had learned the lesson of their soul-destroying loss on enemy territory a month earlier against Geelong. "

Mr D'Land I think they learned more from the lessons against Sydney than they did against Geelong....ball control, composure, tempo.

Much better on the weekend.

[McQueen 17,867]

23 minutes ago, binman said:

My favourite spot at the g is top of the Ponsford. I love the view from up there and being able to see the spread and formation of the players as the ball transitions from end to end. Also with a GA membership you get your choice of seats for a game like this one.

The only issue is that for smaller crowds the  bar is sometimes closed so you have to go downstairs. But if there is 30k it might be open 

Thanks, binman.

[binman 43,791]

1 hour ago, McQueen said:

Thanks, binman.

Not sure how familiar you are with the g (i naturally assume everyone knows it as well as i do!) but the Ponsford is the stand at the city end behind the goals. So you look down the ground.

Most people seem to prefer sitting on the wing (which is why you will almost always get a seat at the top of the ponsford) but as i say i prefer being up high behind the goals.

I often think that in this age of presses and players moving all over the ground the coaches would be better of sitting behind the goals rather than the wing

Edited August 23, 2018 by binman

[Deeoldfart 8,064]

I have no doubt that we will win, and win well, if we can bring our best football to the 'G'.  Our win over the Eagles was outstanding, and despite our disappointing form against some of the better sides at our home ground this year, I can see no reason why we can't reproduce our best on Sunday.  If we do that, we will go into September well rested and brimming with form and confidence. In those circumstances, it would be a brave pundit to predict our early demise.  Just do it boys .......... one step at a time!

[Damo 3,375]

Please someone, anyone, report on this mornings training session

[Dee Zephyr 19,269]

5 minutes ago, Damo said:

Please someone, anyone, report on this mornings training session

In case of an emergency, call @000

[old55 23,699]

14 hours ago, McQueen said:

Travelling over for the game for another hit after last weeks awesome game but need some advice on seating please.

I’m assuming my Interstate membership will get me into GA on level 1, 3 and 4 according to the MFC site FAQ’s.

Where is the best section and how early would I need to line up to get it.

Alternatively, I’m happy to upgrade to a premium seat.

TIA

You can get GA entry into level 2A in the Southern Stand at the Punt Road End.  Enter by Gate 4 and go straight up the steps between the stands.  I think that is good viewing - agree with @binman that sitting behind the goals slightly elevated gives the best overall perspective.

Edited August 23, 2018 by Fifty-5

[DubDee 26,117]

Loving the confidence from everyone!  but I reckon this is 50-50.  GWS have won 8 of their past 10 games and still have stars in Kelly, Coniglio, Shiel, Davis, Cameron, Ward, Whitfield. Will be a tough game!

I reckon we need to attack them hard, they are down on inside 50s and goals so if we have a shoot out I think we can cover them. Stay confident Demons and believe!

[binman 43,791]

7 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

You can get GA entry into level 2A in the Southern Stand at the Punt Road End.  Enter by Gate 4 and go straight up the steps between the stands.  I think that is good viewing - agree with @binman that sitting behind the goals slightly elevated gives the best overall perspective.

It is pretty good viewing in the Southern stand, but i prefer the ponsford. Partly out of long term habit, but also because it is less crowded (i think because more people come from Richmond station that the other direction), it is a newer (and a bit more comfortable) stand and the incline of the seats is less severe. I feel like i'm falling in the Southern standard - and also it feels as if the seats are little more cramped. 

[binman 43,791]

7 minutes ago, DubDee said:

Loving the confidence from everyone!  but I reckon this is 50-50.  GWS have won 8 of their past 10 games and still have stars in Kelly, Coniglio, Shiel, Davis, Cameron, Ward, Whitfield. Will be a tough game!

I reckon we need to attack them hard, they are down on inside 50s and goals so if we have a shoot out I think we can cover them. Stay confident Demons and believe!

Absolutely it will be a tough game. They are not top 4 out of luck.

And we face a big challenge making sure we are switched on after such an emotional win last week. Really important we are ready and that we win this game. 

[old55 23,699]

1 minute ago, binman said:

It is pretty good viewing in the Southern stand, but i prefer the ponsford. Partly out of long term habit, but also because it is less crowded (i think because more people come from Richmond station that the other direction), it is a newer (and a bit more comfortable) stand and the incline of the seats is less severe. I feel like i'm falling in the Southern standard - and also it feels as if the seats are little more cramped. 

I've been in the Ponsford vs Hawthorn this year and it is good viewing.  Have you tried 2A at the Punt Road End behind the goals?

[McQueen 17,867]

59 minutes ago, binman said:

Not sure how familiar you are with the g (i naturally assume everyone knows it as well as i do!) but the Ponsford is the stand at the city end behind the goals. So you look down the ground.

Most people seem to prefer sitting on the wing (which is why you will almost always get a seat at the top of the ponsford) but as i say i prefer being up high behind the goals.

I often think that in this age of presses and players moving all over the ground the coaches would be better of sitting behind the goals rather than the wing

 

10 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

You can get GA entry into level 2A in the Southern Stand at the Punt Road End.  Enter by Gate 4 and go straight up the steps between the stands.  I think that is good viewing - agree with @binman that sitting behind the goals slightly elevated gives the best overall perspective.

Cheers fella's. I've looked at members premium reserved which is an extra ~$25 on level 2A or level 1.. Would you wing it just with GA given the crowd is likely to be around 25 - 30K? The extra $25 is stuff all in the scheme of things but it does equate to 3 beers.

[old55 23,699]

1 minute ago, McQueen said:

 

Cheers fella's. I've looked at members premium reserved which is an extra ~$25 on level 2A or level 1.. Would you wing it just with GA given the crowd is likely to be around 25 - 30K? The extra $25 is stuff all in the scheme of things but it does equate to 3 beers.

I'd wing it to 2A at the Punt Road End behind the goals, it's going to be a sunny day, but if you like sitting on the wing (I used to) then go for the upgrade

[binman 43,791]

2 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

I've been in the Ponsford vs Hawthorn this year and it is good viewing.  Have you tried 2A at the Punt Road End behind the goals?

Is 2a at the top? I have sat at all 3 levels at tbe punt road end. The middle one is the best. The very top is the one i dislike

[Copuchas 763]

1 hour ago, Damo said:

Please someone, anyone, report on this mornings training session

I was there, albeit briefly.   Big crowd present, gorgeous morning with a spring feel in the air.   There was a noticeably positive vibe amongst the whole group. 

The focus during my time there was on skills with one drill involving a coaching staff member throwing the ball at a player whose task was then to side-step a tackler, brace for the tackle, fire off a handball to a team mate whilst being tackled whose job was then to snap for goal (Goody was running a session about 25-30m in the fwd pocket).   

The rehab group had Viney, Hunt, Joel Smith and Baker in it and all seemed to be moving well.   Viney didn't join the main group in the time I was there.  I don't believe Hibberd was present at all.

The only guy who looked to be disinterested and going through the motions was Dion Johnstone.  It's previously been commented upon that he's unlikely to get a contract next year.

 

Edited August 23, 2018 by Copuchas
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