Fox Footys 2018 Ladder Predictor

[Demonland 66,453]

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2018-every-clubs-ladder-range-for-the-upcoming-premiership-season/news-story/363af6b1ee4a1db1e6b33e2f5c8b908f

MELBOURNE

The Demons cannot afford to be weighed down by considerable expectations in 2018. It’s been 11 long seasons since the club played finals and more than 53 years since it won a flag. But there is hope. Christian Petracca could explode at any time, Jesse Hogan will offer more than he did last year, and the acquisition of Jake Lever from Adelaide will bolster the defence and allow Tom McDonald to roam forward. Melbourne cannot afford to lose games like it did to Fremantle last season.

Range: 4-9

[Devil is in the Detail 883]

How can they have Essendon 2-7.

[Dee Zephyr 17,994]

1 minute ago, Devil is in the Detail said:

How can they have Essendon 2-7.

All of us here have them that high. No? They are everyone's "second" team after all.

[dl4e 5,648]

Melbourne 4-9 is fair enough. The essendon prediction is way over the top. Collingwood is rated too high as well.

[Clintosaurus 6,665]

4 minutes ago, dl4e said:

Melbourne 4-9 is fair enough. The essendon prediction is way over the top. Collingwood is rated too high as well.

The Essendon thing is all part of the narrative being spun by the AFL and media. Will be completed when they win this year's flag. After that Goddard's movie gets made. Enough to make anyone puke.

[Moonshadow 16,409]

West Coast and WB a bit low for my liking. Essendon's prediction is laughable.

It's clear many reporters let their own support and emotions get in the way of objective reporting, which is what 'reporters' are supposed to do

[Ethan Tremblay 28,535]

No issue with our rating given the way we went out in round 23. Essendon’s rating is laughable, I’d have them around the 7-12 mark. Stringer is an odd ball with odder hair. Could be a bold call but I think his best is already behind him. There’s just something not quite right about him. Saad shows flashes but he’s not a game changer. Time will tell. 

Edited March 1, 2018 by Ethan Tremblay

[Diamond_Jim 12,017]

Interesting...

Most are in the ballpark but Port (2-8) and Essendon are rated too highly and perhaps Bulldogs (7-12) and West Coast (8-12) are under rated. I'd have both these clubs at 6-10. In the case of Port and Essendon.. I would also rank them at 6-10.

One of Port's problem is that it will probably lose to Adelaide which means two less wins for the season.

Just saw Moonshadow's post .... seems we are in agreement that Bulldogs and West Coast are under rated.

Edited March 1, 2018 by Diamond_Jim

[What 18,810]

Hawthorn 6-10 seems a bit optimistic.  Especially since they will be relying on O'Meara playing most games and getting back to his best.

[Deemania since 56 6,237]

3 hours ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

No issue with our rating given the way we went out in round 23. Essendon’s rating is laughable, I’d have them around the 7-12 mark. Stringer is an odd ball with odder hair. Could be a bold call but I think his best is already behind him. There’s just something not quite right about him. Saad shows flashes but he’s not a game changer. Time will tell. 

i'd reckon Essendrug would be doing well to finish as high as 12th.

[brendan 3,417]

What is with the Essendon hype it’s a bit rediculous, they don’t have the grunt in the midfield to compete with the better teams in the comp as we seen in there finals loss to Sydney and the loss agains the tigers the other day, plenty of outside runners but that’s no good if you can’t get the ball, and they only made the finals because they finished last and got a good draw 

[Diamond_Jim 12,017]

I assume the rating for Essendon is based on the theory that because of their recruiting they will be better than last year.

Personally I thought they over performed last year... just as we under performed.

Stop Daniher and you stop Essendon in all probability.

[Lucifers Hero 37,323]

Agree with comments re the over rating of Ess and Coll.

Reckon they are being kind to St Kilda @ 8 - 14.  Just can't see them improving enough to get any where near the finals.  11 - 14 is more likely.

They have Brisbane @ 12 - 16.  I reckon they will be a lot closer to 12 than 16.  I can see them ending higher than North, Pies, GCS, Carlton, Freo, and maybe the Saints.  Brisbane is my tip for the biggest improver (in ladder position) for 2018.

[DubDee 21,264]

"one things for sure, Essendon will finish higher than last year"

how the F is that certain?  guess it is good if they are being over hyped.   

they already have longish term injuries to 3 players. if Merrett/Hurley or Daniher go down they are fooked

man I hate the bombers

[Ethan Tremblay 28,535]

1 hour ago, Deemania since 56 said:

i'd reckon Essendrug would be doing well to finish as high as 12th.

Probably, but I’m not writing off too many teams at this stage as I think it’s going to be a close season. 

[Binmans PA 26,492]

2 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

I assume the rating for Essendon is based on the theory that because of their recruiting they will be better than last year.

Personally I thought they over performed last year... just as we under performed.

Stop Daniher and you stop Essendon in all probability.

I rate Essendon, but I agree with the bolded statement.

This is why I like how unpredictable we've become, because Essendon aren't the only team to rely heavily on too few. Geelong and Richmond are similar sides that spring to mind. Richmond without Martin are a significantly more ordinary team - his x-factor took them all the way last year. Their 18 man pressure game is great when combined with a match winner like him. Their injury-free run is also somewhat incredible, but surely couldn't last two seasons in a row.

I'd liken our even team performances to a team like Sydney. Lots of contributors, which has enabled them to stay up the top of the ladder for multiple years. I just hope the likes of Hogan, Oliver and Petracca come on to prove they are week in, week out match winners like Kennedy and Franklin have. If they are, we're set for a dynasty of success if we can stay relatively injury free.

Adelaide are another pretty even team, but IMO they don't possess the potential game breakers that will enable them to win multiple flags. Fingers crossed we do.

[Diamond_Jim 12,017]

Was reading on Big Footy that Freo were practising how to tackle Dustin Martin.

The theory is that if you tackle low the push off technique used by Martin goes into the tackler's face and thus attracts a free kick.

Not sure what it does to the strength of the tackle itself but it will be interesting to see how the umpires react.

On a related note can someone explain exactly what Gawn was getting free kicked for in his ruck duels.

This time last year I along with many others was excited by the prospects of what Gawn as a dominant ruckman could deliver. His early season injury put rest to that excitement and then his return was dogged by the umpires frequently awarding free kicks against him.

cheers

Edited March 1, 2018 by Diamond_Jim

[Mickey 4,197]

25 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Was reading on Big Footy that Freo were practising how to tackle Dustin Martin.

The theory is that if you tackle low the push off technique used by Martin goes into the tackler's face and thus attracts a free kick.

Not sure what it does to the strength of the tackle itself but it will be interesting to see how the umpires react.

On a related note can someone explain exactly what Gawn was getting free kicked for in his ruck duels.

This time last year I along with many others was excited by the prospects of what Gawn as a dominant ruckman could deliver. His early season injury put rest to that excitement and then his return was dogged by the umpires frequently awarding free kicks against him.

cheers

Only problem with this is the umps won't call it. Already happened a few times last year... play on

[Lord Travis 10,268]

1 hour ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Was reading on Big Footy that Freo were practising how to tackle Dustin Martin.

The theory is that if you tackle low the push off technique used by Martin goes into the tackler's face and thus attracts a free kick.

This already happens and the umpires ignore it. There was one match last year where he gave a hard fend off to an opponents throat and that player couldn't breath and was helped from the field by medicos. No commentators or media said a word about it, wouldn't want to derail the hype train! 

Dusty gives away 3-4 free kicks a game from illegal fend offs that aren't called by umpires. If he shoves their chest, fine play on. But if he shoves their throat or face, which he does weekly, he should be penalised a free kick against. It's rubbish it's not called. Yet other players get penalised for legitimate tackles etc. Bloody rules and umpires have gone mad!

[Lord Travis 10,268]

I see our range as anywhere from 2-10. I personally have us finishing 5th, and making prelims. If we somehow miss the 8 again I'll probably burn this state to the ground and make it my lifes work to ensure AFL ceases to exist.

[Diamond_Jim 12,017]

31 minutes ago, Lord Travis said:

This already happens and the umpires ignore it. There was one match last year where he gave a hard fend off to an opponents throat and that player couldn't breath and was helped from the field by medicos. No commentators or media said a word about it, wouldn't want to derail the hype train! 

Dusty gives away 3-4 free kicks a game from illegal fend offs that aren't called by umpires. If he shoves their chest, fine play on. But if he shoves their throat or face, which he does weekly, he should be penalised a free kick against. It's rubbish it's not called. Yet other players get penalised for legitimate tackles etc. Bloody rules and umpires have gone mad!

The problem is that the stronger kids in junior football will start to imitate the play. The old "don't argue" was revered but in reality was rarely used. Martin has turned it into an artform and personally I don't like it.

[Stretch Johnson 2,600]

12 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

The problem is that the stronger kids in junior football will start to imitate the play. The old "don't argue" was revered but in reality was rarely used. Martin has turned it into an artform and personally I don't like it.

I would absolutely coach kids to imitate it if they can. 

Not for everyone but if you have the power and technique to do it within the rules it is a great weapon.

Todd Viney used to do it pretty well. 

[Deemania since 56 6,237]

12 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

The problem is that the stronger kids in junior football will start to imitate the play. The old "don't argue" was revered but in reality was rarely used. Martin has turned it into an artform and personally I don't like it.

Martin has got away with this technique for too long whereas a year or two earlier, he was occasionally penalised for it. Empathy with his technique has been made a 'feature' of the whole game by commentators lauding out loud on his method. In actual fact, it is the same as a straight arm smack in the face or its imminent arrival if lower - but his tough nut image is given heaps of latitude by the umpires. That is the problem, if anything. No other player would get away with it, so therefore, it is open season on low-tackling with him from now on. He starts this block with arm/hand raised at head height then attempts to lower it for a chest push. Maybe 50% of these don't lower far enough, depending on the height or lack thereof of his intending-to-tackle opponents. So most likely, the only weapon against it - as we cannot rely on the umpires in any way - is to pile-drive the shoulder into his abdomen. 

[Devil is in the Detail 883]

27 minutes ago, Deemania since 56 said:

Martin has got away with this technique for too long whereas a year or two earlier, he was occasionally penalised for it. Empathy with his technique has been made a 'feature' of the whole game by commentators lauding out loud on his method. In actual fact, it is the same as a straight arm smack in the face or its imminent arrival if lower - but his tough nut image is given heaps of latitude by the umpires. That is the problem, if anything. No other player would get away with it, so therefore, it is open season on low-tackling with him from now on. He starts this block with arm/hand raised at head height then attempts to lower it for a chest push. Maybe 50% of these don't lower far enough, depending on the height or lack thereof of his intending-to-tackle opponents. So most likely, the only weapon against it - as we cannot rely on the umpires in any way - is to pile-drive the shoulder into his abdomen. 

Get Viney to rip his arm off.

[rjay 24,046]

13 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

The problem is that the stronger kids in junior football will start to imitate the play. The old "don't argue" was revered but in reality was rarely used. Martin has turned it into an artform and personally I don't like it.

 

13 hours ago, Stretch Johnson said:

I would absolutely coach kids to imitate it if they can. 

Not for everyone but if you have the power and technique to do it within the rules it is a great weapon.

Todd Viney used to do it pretty well. 

I know my 14yo niece has been working out in the gym so she can improve her strength to do what 'Dusty' does.

Kids definitely pick up on what they see...