Will making the 2016 finals hinder our prep for 2017 season?

[chookrat 4,268]

2 hours ago, Traja Dee said:

I've said for years that the team that finishes 8th and scrapes into the finals (post 1992) is, with very few exceptions, just making up the numbers.  Often, the 8th placed team gets smacked by the 5th placed team in the first week, and I suspect that it does more harm than good.

Soooo, with Melbourne still a remote chance of finishing 8th after next weekend, the question takes a much more emotional element.  My key question is: will Melbourne's 2017 season preparation will better served by seeing us finish in or out of the finals?

Advantages of Finishing Eighth

1. The players get valuable experience playing finals that will benefit the finals campaign in 2017.
2. We have momentum, like 1987, that means that we'll be one of the exceptional 8th-placed teams that progress past the first week.

 

Advantages of Finishing Ninth (assuming we win against Blues and Cats)

1. Our team starts preseason at least 2 weeks earlier.
2. Players who need post-season operations can get them over and done with 2 weeks earlier.
3. Our players can spend the pre-season reflecting on the importance of switching on every week and not losing games like this year's Essendon game. Hence, they'll be even more ferocious and hungry in 2017.

• In other words the players can reflect that they were good enough and threw the opportunity away, as opposed to the risk of arriving fatigued to the first week of the finals and enduring a confidence-sapping loss (of course wouldn't happen to our Dee's but just supposing).

What do other 'Landers think?  Will our preparation for 2017 be enhanced or possibly handicapped by making the finals in 2016?

This is the worst post I have ever read

[jacey 333]

Another advantage of finishing 9th is having an easier draw for 2017. 

But the benefit of finals outweighs any valid reason. 

[deeko 952]

I have a hypothetical query around selection of we made finals.

If say the Weed played the next two wins, takes only a handful of grabs and gets minimal touches while Pedo is looking good in the twos; would you:

A: Play the more in form player and experienced body in Cam who would probably add more value.

B: Give the Weed the experience now in finals as he's the future and would be expected to be leading us up forward hopefully for the next dozen years and would know what to expect next year.

I would have backed in Cam all the way to play but even though we all know that going forward he's a depth player. Right now however I feel the selection is still focused on the future. 

Thoughts?

[PaulRB 6,432]

4 minutes ago, jacey said:

Another advantage of finishing 9th is having an easier draw for 2017. 

But the benefit of finals outweighs any valid reason. 

[dee-eee 231]

Bizarre things can happen in finals and if we manage to sneak in , a couple of wins are possible .   Remember in '98 the Crows managed to win the flag from 5th after we beat them by 8 goals in a Qualifying Final .

[pineapple dee 2,892]

I have a simple wish. I hope we win tomorrow. Forget about finals and 2017. I can't get the image of Kreuzer strolling through centre half forward and banging one through the big sticks out of my head. 

[Uncle Fester 2,848]

Always play to win. Always. Anything else means all the training, all the hard work, all the blood sweat and tears is wasted.

[The Reverend 1,736]

The swans have tanked tonight to try and keep us out of the race. They won by the smallest margin they could manage. They are clearly worried about the form team of the competition getting through and taking scalps.

We cannot be disadvantaged by playing finals. It's a win-win situation. Whatever the outcome it will provide huge motivation for 2017.

GO DEES!  

[Uncle Fester 2,848]

4 minutes ago, The Reverend said:

The swans have tanked tonight to try and keep us out of the race. They won by the smallest margin they could manage. They are clearly worried about the form team of the competition getting through and taking scalps.

We cannot be disadvantaged by playing finals. It's a win-win situation. Whatever the outcome it will provide huge motivation for 2017.

GO DEES!  

Ummm. They smashed us. Whoever they are worried about on their white board Wednesday, I can bet we aren't part of the conversation.

[Ricky P 757]

36 minutes ago, The Reverend said:

The swans have tanked tonight to try and keep us out of the race. They won by the smallest margin they could manage. They are clearly worried about the form team of the competition getting through and taking scalps.

We cannot be disadvantaged by playing finals. It's a win-win situation. Whatever the outcome it will provide huge motivation for 2017.

GO DEES!  

911 was an inside job?

[Je Roos Salem 661]

Could not give an absolute [censored] [censored] if our 2017 season where I dunno what the [censored] will happen in is affected

[Demon Dynasty 17,130]

6 hours ago, Traja Dee said:

I've sd for years that the team tha. t finishes 8th and scrapes into the finals (post 1992) is, with very few exceptions, just making up the numbers.  Often, the 8th placed team gets smacked by the 5th placed team in the first week, and I suspect that it does more harm than good.

Soooo, with Melbourne still a remote chance of finishing 8th after next weekend, the question takes a much more emotional element.  My key question is: will Melbourne's 2017 season preparation will better served by seeing us finish in or out of the finals?

Advantages of Finishing Eighth

1. The players get valuable experience playing finals that will benefit the finals campaign in 2017.
2. We have momentum, like 1987, that means that we'll be one of the exceptional 8th-placed teams that progress past the first week.

 

Advantages of Finishing Ninth (assuming we win against Blues and Cats)

1. Our team starts preseason at least 2 weeks earlier.
2. Players who need post-season operations can get them over and done with 2 weeks earlier.
3. Our players can spend the pre-season reflecting on the importance of switching on every week and not losing games like this year's Essendon game. Hence, they'll be even more ferocious and hungry in 2017.

• In other words the players can reflect that they were good enough and threw the opportunity away, as opposed to the risk of arriving fatigued to the first week of the finals and enduring a confidence-sapping loss (of course wouldn't happen to our Dee's but just supposing).

What do other 'Landers think?  Will our preparation for 2017 be enhanced or possibly handicapped by making the finals in 2016?

There's a bye before the finals which would freshen everyone up. No fatigue Issues.

If you make finals you dont go in thinking you're just going in making up the numbers.

Any finals experience is better than none. Take it and use the taste for it to go harder and deeper In 2017.

 

[Pates 9,675]

The cold hard numbers you would look at say yes, not making finals this year would be better preparation for 2017. More time for recovery, better draw etc  

But cold hard numbers fail to take into account the experience we'll gain. The fact the club will be buzzing with finals intensity for the first time since 2006. 

I honestly feel there is more to gain from making finals that missing out. There are some things that aren't measurable. 

[KingDingAling 3,758]

There is only one winner in this comp. Putting ourselves in the 8 gives us a chance of being that winner. Anything less is a failed year. 2017 doesn't even exist yet, and there are no guarantees we will be in a position to challenge for the premiership then. We could be now, right now, lets give it everything.

[Mad_Melbourne 877]

The idea of playing finals is one that I am not a fan of, this is because I am currently in Lithuania and will continually be moving around Europe and miss going to our first final in however many years. Bring on 2017. 

 

 

On the real, we generally have not performed too poorly against the top 8 sides a couple wins, a few close loses and at the end of the day we have been really competitive. If we make finals we will be 5 on the trot, an inform side and possibly a chance of playing either Geelong who we just beat (if we make finals) or WCE who have lost Naitanui and leads to an increase dominance by Gawn. We will probably be making up the numbers if we play finals, but much better to let them have a crack than sit out and miss them altogether. 

[jacey 333]

10 hours ago, PaulRB said:

You finish outside the 8, u get a better draw the following year. 

Do u even afl?

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

9 hours ago, dee-eee said:

Bizarre things can happen in finals and if we manage to sneak in , a couple of wins are possible .   Remember in '98 the Crows managed to win the flag from 5th after we beat them by 8 goals in a Qualifying Final .

Totally different finals structure in 1998.

I do however think the bye will give teams outside the top 4 a better chance.

[Lucifers Hero 40,519]

One never knows, if we made the finals the 'Stephen Bradbury Effect' might happen for us.

We would go in as the in-form team (with Sydney) as the only top 8 teams undefeated in the last 5 rounds!

[PaulRB 6,432]

1 hour ago, jacey said:

You finish outside the 8, u get a better draw the following year. 

Do u even afl?

The PURPOSE, the POINT and the REASON for playing AFL is to play FINALS, and give yourself a chance of winning an AFL PREMIERSHIP. 

Thats it. The future is a mirage we create in the present.

Edited August 20, 2016 by PaulRB

[dino rover 714]

What makes us more of a destination club?

Playing finals ahead of schedule

Or not playing

Clearly being ahead of schedule makes us a better option for better players

[Undeeterred 3,127]

When will this club stop thinking about next year, and start thinking about this year?

This has been our problem for 10 years.

[Traja Dee 108]

Apologies to everyone for my somewhat insensitive post but thanks for reading.  Believe me, I'm a genuine supporter, have been since 1976 (still remember just missing out on the finals that season thanks to Carlton drawing with Footscray) and the OP was a genuine question.

My perception was that the teams that finish 8th usually just make up the numbers, and I was wondering if making up the numbers still has some benefit for the team's mental state for the next season.

Soo, I've gone and looked at the numbers; i.e. all results since the 2000 season, and here's what I found.

Of the teams that finished 8th in the 15 completed seasons since 2000, 7 finished higher than 8th in the next season, 7 finished lower and 1 stayed on 8th (Essendon in 2003).  For those 15 seasons, 6 won the Elimination final, but only 2 of those 6 winning teams finished higher than 8th in their next season.  Mind you, those 6 winning teams include North beating Richmond last season and Carlton beating Richmond in 2013 (maybe it was Richmond just making up the numbers in those seasons...)

In the 9 finals series since 2007, 8th place has won 3 elimination finals (including 2 against Richmond), with the average losing margin (not counting the 3) being 53 points, a sour way to finish the season (the point of my OP!).

Of the teams that finished 9th in the 15 seasons, 8 went higher in the next season and 7 went lower.

Despite the Elimination Finals carnage in recent seasons, my conclusion is that whether a team finishes 8th or 9th in a season has no significant bearing on their prospects for the next season.

That said, I'll be watching the game this afternoon from 2000km away, cheering from the couch and crunching the ladder percentage at the end of the game. I'm tipping (and hoping for) a 10-goal-plus win, placing our percentage in striking distance for Round 23!

Go Dees!

[Undeeterred 3,127]

1 minute ago, Traja Dee said:

Apologies to everyone for my somewhat insensitive post but thanks for reading.  Believe me, I'm a genuine supporter, have been since 1976 (still remember just missing out on the finals that season thanks to Carlton drawing with Footscray) and the OP was a genuine question.

My perception was that the teams that finish 8th usually just make up the numbers, and I was wondering if making up the numbers still has some benefit for the team's mental state for the next season.

Soo, I've gone and looked at the numbers; i.e. all results since the 2000 season, and here's what I found.

Of the teams that finished 8th in the 15 completed seasons since 2000, 7 finished higher than 8th in the next season, 7 finished lower and 1 stayed on 8th (Essendon in 2003).  For those 15 seasons, 6 won the Elimination final, but only 2 of those 6 winning teams finished higher than 8th in their next season.  Mind you, those 6 winning teams include North beating Richmond last season and Carlton beating Richmond in 2013 (maybe it was Richmond just making up the numbers in those seasons...)

In the 9 finals series since 2007, 8th place has won 3 elimination finals (including 2 against Richmond), with the average losing margin (not counting the 3) being 53 points, a sour way to finish the season (the point of my OP!).

Of the teams that finished 9th in the 15 seasons, 8 went higher in the next season and 7 went lower.

Despite the Elimination Finals carnage in recent seasons, my conclusion is that whether a team finishes 8th or 9th in a season has no significant bearing on their prospects for the next season.

That said, I'll be watching the game this afternoon from 2000km away, cheering from the couch and crunching the ladder percentage at the end of the game. I'm tipping (and hoping for) a 10-goal-plus win, placing our percentage in striking distance for Round 23!

Go Dees!

Don't stress mate, nobody's worried about you being insensitive. We all just want to play finals and stuff the consequences.

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

We cannot just assume that we will improve next year. This year we have had very few injuries and a relatively forgiving draw, we need strike while the iron is hot.

Also, Gawn is in such good form and hasn't missed a game, but we may only get a few years of this before it takes too much of a toll on his body.

[Old Bear 388]

If you have ever played in Finals be it in the Bush, Juniors or low level suburban or even Master Rules

You remember the excitement and pleasure of training in August ,September

Its been twenty years for me ,still miss it