Round 22 - Around the Grounds

[Chook 15,013]

GWS just tuning themselves up nicely for a crack at North and the Top Four next week. Go you good things (except Scully).

[Satyriconhome 10,878]

3 minutes ago, sue said:

Basic algebra

my brain hurts now.........I never got past the old Liverpool school

Teacher......."Johny if you had 5 apples and Tommy took 2 away, what would Tommy have"

Johny......."a Liverpool kiss, miss"

[SaberFang 7,151]

Let's just focus on winning the game tomorrow before we start worrying about percentage. Roos has the right idea in this regard. 

[Mazer Rackham 14,971]

3 minutes ago, Chook said:

GWS just tuning themselves up nicely for a crack at North and the Top Four next week. Go you good things (except Scully).

Even Scully may yet have his part to play. Like the guy in lord of the rings. He may bite off Brent Harvey's finger in the last minute to get the win.

[sue 9,106]

4 minutes ago, deanox said:

Yeah OK, sorry cannot is the wrong word! But largely if our percentage is in front this week and results fall our way north will need the perfect set of circumstances involving margins and high/low scoring games to lose less percentage than we do and thus keep their spot. 

I acknowledge it is possible but it is so far fetched it is significantly unlikely!

 

But I'm glad at least a few people here understand enough maths for these discussions!

It isn't that unlikely - look at the example in post #366.  And  if you choose more likely outcomes for the match vs Carlton it becomes more likely (though probability decreases for more likely outcomes of North vs GWS), it is still quite possible. 

 

[Mazer Rackham 14,971]

5 minutes ago, SaberFang said:

Let's just focus on winning the game tomorrow before we start worrying about percentage. Roos has the right idea in this regard. 

No, we have to win big tomorrow. Otherwise it becomes very difficult in the last round.

[Born to Run 204]

Was just looking at the round next week. Is there any circumstance (assuming we win) that the GWS match is of no consequence to them? Am I right in saying that Hawks playing last match will ensure this won't happen. 

[Nasher 33,616]

10 minutes ago, SaberFang said:

Let's just focus on winning the game tomorrow before we start worrying about percentage. Roos has the right idea in this regard. 

We have no influence on the outcome. We can get as far ahead of ourselves as we want.

[FireInTheBennelly 4,072]

This is a rough guide of percentage outcomes of tomorrows match. Top line is our score, down the left is Carltons score. Find the intersecting cell in the table for a rough idea of what our percentage would look like. I've bolded the outcomes which get us to the 107% mark, i.e. 80-30. Obviously from those numbers we'd need a roughly 50 point win to get close to the current mark. This does not take into account what happens next week.

		Melbourne
		10	20	30	40	50	60	70	80	90	100	110	120	130	140	150	160
Carlton	10	104.75	105.32	105.88	106.45	107.01	107.58	108.14	108.71	109.28	109.84	110.41	110.97	111.54	112.10	112.67	113.24
	20	104.16	104.72	105.29	105.85	106.41	106.97	107.54	108.10	108.66	109.22	109.79	110.35	110.91	111.47	112.04	112.60
	30	103.58	104.14	104.70	105.26	105.82	106.38	106.94	107.49	108.05	108.61	109.17	109.73	110.29	110.85	111.41	111.97
	40	103.00	103.56	104.12	104.67	105.23	105.78	106.34	106.90	107.45	108.01	108.57	109.12	109.68	110.23	110.79	111.35
	50	102.43	102.99	103.54	104.09	104.65	105.20	105.75	106.31	106.86	107.41	107.96	108.52	109.07	109.62	110.18	110.73
	60	101.87	102.42	102.97	103.52	104.07	104.62	105.17	105.72	106.27	106.82	107.37	107.92	108.47	109.02	109.57	110.12
	70	101.31	101.86	102.41	102.95	103.50	104.05	104.60	105.14	105.69	106.24	106.78	107.33	107.88	108.42	108.97	109.52
	80	100.76	101.31	101.85	102.39	102.94	103.48	104.03	104.57	105.11	105.66	106.20	106.75	107.29	107.83	108.38	108.92
	90	100.22	100.76	101.30	101.84	102.38	102.92	103.46	104.00	104.55	105.09	105.63	106.17	106.71	107.25	107.79	108.33
	100	99.68	100.22	100.75	101.29	101.83	102.37	102.91	103.44	103.98	104.52	105.06	105.60	106.14	106.67	107.21	107.75
	110	99.14	99.68	100.21	100.75	101.28	101.82	102.36	102.89	103.43	103.96	104.50	105.03	105.57	106.10	106.64	107.17
	120	98.62	99.15	99.68	100.21	100.75	101.28	101.81	102.34	102.88	103.41	103.94	104.47	105.01	105.54	106.07	106.60
	130	98.09	98.62	99.15	99.68	100.21	100.74	101.27	101.80	102.33	102.86	103.39	103.92	104.45	104.98	105.51	106.04
	140	97.58	98.10	98.63	99.16	99.68	100.21	100.74	101.26	101.79	102.32	102.85	103.37	103.90	104.43	104.95	105.48
	150	97.06	97.59	98.11	98.64	99.16	99.69	100.21	100.73	101.26	101.78	102.31	102.83	103.35	103.88	104.40	104.93
	160	96.56	97.08	97.60	98.12	98.64	99.17	99.69	100.21	100.73	101.25	101.77	102.29	102.82	103.34	103.86	104.38

[deanox 9,922]

7 minutes ago, sue said:

It isn't that unlikely - look at the example in post #366.  And  if you choose more likely outcomes for the match vs Carlton it becomes more likely (though probability decreases for more likely outcomes of North vs GWS), it is still quite possible. 

 

It is unlikely that two games next week will be determined by scores such as 120 to 119 and 40 to 41, especially when the latter is under a closed roof at Etihad. 

 

Our current points for and against are relatively similar to the Roos which means IF we are in front next week, and the match results fall our way it will be an unlucky combination of scoring results and margins for us to lose more percentage than they do. 

Still possible? Yes of course. 

Quite possible? Well depends how you define quite but I don't think have two one point games is a high probability.  You'd get very very good odds on that if you believe it is quite likely. 

[Hellaintabadplacetobe 4,294]

9 minutes ago, Born to Run said:

Was just looking at the round next week. Is there any circumstance (assuming we win) that the GWS match is of no consequence to them? Am I right in saying that Hawks playing last match will ensure this won't happen. 

 

No it will mean a lot to them, if they lose next week against NM and Dogs win both games which they should, GWS will miss out on a home final!

[doc roet 1,287]

Just saw Scott on the news,THE FACE,looks like he could blow a dummy a KM..Huff,huff,didn't get enough frees,cry cry.,sob sob,worry,worry,

GO you DEES,100pt pounding tomorrow.

about time Hogan kicks 10.

wouldn't it be nice..

Edited August 20, 2016 by doc roet
extra thought

[Upper Combukta West 48]

What it comes down to is making up the difference between 104.8% over 21 rounds and 107.6% over 22 rounds. 

High scoring or low scoring we need to win by 166.4% to make up the % this round.

(107.6*22) - (104.8*21) = 166.4

 

[Hellaintabadplacetobe 4,294]

9 minutes ago, deanowerner said:

What it comes down to is making up the difference between 104.8% over 21 rounds and 107.6% over 22 rounds. 

High scoring or low scoring we need to win by 166.4% to make up the % this round.

(107.6*22) - (104.8*21) = 166.4

 

 

Lets just win by 9 goals, then it comes down to us winning and North losing next week regardless of the margin...if we are serious about playing finals we should [censored] Carlton considering the form of both teams the last month.

[sue 9,106]

17 minutes ago, deanox said:

It is unlikely that two games next week will be determined by scores such as 120 to 119 and 40 to 41, especially when the latter is under a closed roof at Etihad. 

 

Our current points for and against are relatively similar to the Roos which means IF we are in front next week, and the match results fall our way it will be an unlucky combination of scoring results and margins for us to lose more percentage than they do. 

Still possible? Yes of course. 

Quite possible? Well depends how you define quite but I don't think have two one point games is a high probability.  You'd get very very good odds on that if you believe it is quite likely. 

Well quite is quite flexible.

 I was really responding to those who thought that we if got ahead of North tomorrow, then all we have to do is beat Geelong.  The 40 to 41 result is admittedly unlikely, so pick a more likely close result, eg 80 to 81 and do the sums. Same result.  I'm sure fireinthebelly could draw up a table to cover all cases.

[What 18,810]

Hawks were two games clear on top before they ran into the Red and Blue machine.

We may have ended their reign.

[Hellaintabadplacetobe 4,294]

Just now, Hell Bent said:

Lets just win by 9 goals, then it comes down to us winning and North losing next week regardless of the margin...if we are serious about playing finals we should [censored] Carlton considering the form of both teams the last month.

 

Golf backwards is censored...gee wiz.

[Diamond_Jim 12,588]

GWS V Freo

Now that is what I call a good percentage boosting game

121 to 37 (23 minutes into final quarter)

[Satyriconhome 10,878]

13 minutes ago, Hell Bent said:

Golf backwards is censored...gee wiz.

It all depends on what you are dressed in?

[KingDingAling 3,758]

Brad Scott looked as though he was about to cry (in post match press conference). He acts like he is telling it like it is - but his words suggest otherwise. He is still playing it safe, talking around in circles, and trying to minimize the expectations heaped on the Kangaroos. I feel it is the same mentality that has seen them slide from 1st to nearly out of the 8. Then to top it off he speaks of the Kangaroos being a threat to top sides in the 8. He is all over the shop. To me, I don't think he has the mental toughness to get the job done, same as Hardwick. Same as Leppa. Their teams just compound. Their teams are a reflection of their personality - unable to accept criticism, inconsistent, erratic, unstable, and unable to stand up in the face of pressure.

[daisycutter 29,616]

i reckon we'll beat the scum by 29%

[Lucifers Hero 39,811]

GWS score last 3 quarters:  11.6.74

Freo score last 3 quarters: 0.2.2

That is seriously bad. 

Next chapter:  Mutiny on the SS Freo!  

[Cards13 9,117]

I know I know, ahead of ones self... Wouldn't it be amazing if we played GWS in the first final and beat them... F you Scully. 

Just win tomorrow, I know. 

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

58 minutes ago, Nasher said:

We have no influence on the outcome. We can get as far ahead of ourselves as we want.

Thanks, Satywhateverhisnameis.

[Nasher 33,616]

1 minute ago, Clint Bizkit said:

Thanks, Satywhateverhisnameis.

?