Round 22 - Around the Grounds

[Watts the matter 1,235]

3 minutes ago, JV7 said:

We just need to keep Carltons score low for the best % increase... Winning 80 to 50 will be better then winning 120 to 80. There is only 2.8% separating us & north I'd say between the 3 games it'll take care of itself!

:LOL no! I pray you are not consulting the club in any way because this is not true. 120 to 80 is a better result.

[Cards13 9,117]

45 minutes ago, martin said:

Do we really want to make finals? Obviously would be good but not sure that the group is ready and it is likely to mean a much tougher draw.

Of course we do, who cares about draw. You need to beat the good sides in Sept

[Ethan Tremblay 28,391]

Schmitt was best on ground for North in the last. 

[Mazer Rackham 14,969]

2 minutes ago, GCDee said:

But assuming North lose their % would drop more than what ours would... 

Approx 51 points to make up which is only 17 points per game... 

Hopefully tomorrow we can get carlton by 30+ and then if results go our way in rd 23 the % should take care of its self

If North lose by a point their percentage barely moves at all.

[deanox 8,612]

Honestly if we want to be worthy of finals we need to account for Carlton strongly tomorrow, and that means 30+ points in a comfortable victory. 

 

Do that and it's game on for next week. 

[binman 38,081]

2 minutes ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

Schmitt was best on ground for North in the last. 

Bull played well then

[Copuchas 756]

1 minute ago, Ted Fidge said:

No, it's about percentage.

North currently on 107.6.

 

To match that we would need right now 50 more points in our "for" column.

To get to 107.6 tomorrow we need this kind of outcome:

If Carlton score 60 points we need to score 115.

If Carlton score 80 points we need to score 136.

If Carlton score 100 points we need to score 158.

If Carlton score 120 we need to get ready for Mad Monday.

 

Ted, did you fail maths? !!!  Percentage is points for divided by points against.  Melbourne will have a higher percentage than North at the point where the net points for / points against of the two teams crosses over from the current 50 point deficit to a positive number.  That can be comprised of Melbourne winning margins or North losing margins - it doesn't matter.  And it doesn't matter whether our absolute percentage goes up or down - it is about our percentage relative to Norths....which is driven by the points for / points against equation...

[Ethan Tremblay 28,391]

Is rain forecast for during the game? 

I just had my perm touched up, I'd hate for it to get wet.

Edited August 20, 2016 by Ethan Tremblay

[Mazer Rackham 14,969]

Just now, Copuchas said:

Ted, did you fail maths? !!!  Percentage is points for divided by points against.  Melbourne will have a higher percentage than North at the point where the net points for / points against of the two teams crosses over from the current 50 point deficit to a positive number.  That can be comprised of Melbourne winning margins or North losing margins - it doesn't matter.  And it doesn't matter whether our absolute percentage goes up or down - it is about our percentage relative to Norths....which is driven by the points for / points against equation...

I don't have time to de-garble this. Do the maths yourself and see.

[JV7 2,339]

9 minutes ago, Watts the matter said:

:LOL no! I pray you are not consulting the club in any way because this is not true. 120 to 80 is a better result.

Not those exact numbers but if we win by 6 goals in a shoot out compared to 6 goals in a lower scoring game, it makes a difference... People saying its a 50 point differential doesn't matter, best way for us to gain % is to keep Carlton as low as possible, which is obvious but like I said above the same winning margins can have a different impact on % depending on the scoreline

Edited August 20, 2016 by JV7

[binman 38,081]

19 minutes ago, PaulRB said:

Great result as it keep us in it and interested for the next two games... irrespective of the GWS result. 

Big character test for our boys to push through the next two games and put ourselves in the right spot if North stumble.

That's an excellent point. I was saying to a mate that regardless of the outcome this experience will be invaluable ie playing games under pressure. the next two games are akin to elimination finals in a sense, with one against a top 4 side at a hostile ground.

Such good experience for a young team and we are lucky to be in this position. Compare taht to the Tigers Saints game today. What did either side get out of that dirge.

[Mazer Rackham 14,969]

2 minutes ago, JV7 said:

Not those exact numbers but if we win by 6 goals in a shoot out compared to 6 goals in a lower scoring game, it makes a difference... People saying its a 50 point differential doesn't matter, best way for us to gain % is to keep Carlton as low as possible, which is obvious but like I said above the same winning margins can have a different impact on % depending on the scoreline

What you say is right but do the maths and you will see that Watts the matter is also right.

[Watts the matter 1,235]

1 minute ago, JV7 said:

Not those exact numbers but if we win by 6 goals in a shoot out compared to 6 goals in a lower scoring game makes a difference... People saying its a 50 point differential doesn't matter, best way for us to gain % is to keep Carlton as low as possible, which is obvious but like I said above the same winning margins can have an different impacts on % depending on the scoreline

Yes and no. At this stage of the season when have 1800 and 1900 for and against already it does not matter as much, but you are correct in saying a win with a 50 point differential would be more beneficial if both teams had a low score. 

[daisycutter 28,529]

13 minutes ago, Ted Fidge said:

No, it's about percentage.

North currently on 107.6.

 

To match that we would need right now 50 more points in our "for" column.

To get to 107.6 tomorrow we need this kind of outcome:

If Carlton score 60 points we need to score 115.

If Carlton score 80 points we need to score 136.

If Carlton score 100 points we need to score 158.

If Carlton score 120 we need to get ready for Mad Monday.

 

but we don't have to get to 107.6

everything counts on north losing next week, so if they lose (even by just 1 point) their % drops below 107.6

at this stage of the game best to just track points difference

[What 18,810]

Its round 22 and what a joy this is to see Demonland posters arguing about how much we need to win by to make up % to make the finals , instead of arguing about why we are still such a bad club we after another horrific end to a season.  Let the good times roll.

 

[Mazer Rackham 14,969]

1 minute ago, daisycutter said:

but we don't have to get to 107.6

everything counts on north losing next week, so if they lose (even by just 1 point) their % drops below 107.6

at this stage of the game best to just track points difference

I'm just showing roughly the magnitude of the task to match North's current percentage. We can't assume it will drop by much next week if they lose, and we can't assume our game against Geelong will be a percentage booster either.

We have to make the biggest impact tomorrow.

[JV7 2,339]

120 to 40 will do me... We'll all be in agreeance then 

[Mazer Rackham 14,969]

Let's say North lose by a point next week, scores 80 to 81. their percentage drops to 107.3.

 

We have to make the big inroads tomorrow.

[dworship 3,342]

Just now, Ted Fidge said:

I'm just showing roughly the magnitude of the task to match North's current percentage. We can't assume it will drop by much next week if they lose, and we can't assume our game against Geelong will be a percentage booster either.

We have to make the biggest impact tomorrow.

KILL, CRUSH, DEESTROY

That is all!!

Oh and we have a Hulk

[daisycutter 28,529]

1 minute ago, Ted Fidge said:

I'm just showing roughly the magnitude of the task to match North's current percentage. We can't assume it will drop by much next week if they lose, and we can't assume our game against Geelong will be a percentage booster either.

We have to make the biggest impact tomorrow.

>50 points over 3 games is a good enough guide. knock it all off tomorrow and we can forget about maths for a while

[dees189227 10,772]

Nic Nat has done his ACL. Poor guy but surely WC can't win the flag now. 

Wow never cheered the swans home so much. Was coming home from shopping and listening to the last few minutes. We are alive. But Im also happy to see Nth lose just to wipe the smile off Brad Scott's face. Im going to enjoy watching the last quarter. 

Come on melbourne just win tomorrow. Focus just on tomorrow and not think about the finals. That a job for us supporters. Plus the saints have jumped above us. 

How good would it be for next round for 8th spot to be alive. I think melbourne fans will be out and about tomorrow. 

nth %  107.6

ours %  104.8

Edited August 20, 2016 by dees189227

[Satyriconhome 9,982]

5 minutes ago, Petraccattack said:

Its round 22 and what a joy this is to see Demonland posters arguing about how much we need to win by to make up % to make the finals , instead of arguing about why we are still such a bad club we after another horrific end to a season.  Let the good times roll.

 

Game day thread?

[bing181 8,166]

Just now, Copuchas said:

it's not about absolute percentage!  It's about the net points for / points against difference between Melbourne and North.  

? Higher percentage puts you higher up the ladder for the same wins, so it is definitely about percentage.

Teams on the same points for/against difference will have a different percentage unless absolute points for/against are identical.

 

 

[Mazer Rackham 14,969]

On another note ... I did enjoy seeing Scott seething quietly in the box after the siren.

He was probably thinking: "those f@ckin' umps!!!"

[SaberFang 7,141]

21 to 9 free kick count Norf's way. Surely that's wrong, surely the umpires couldn't be so shameless.