Round 22 - Around the Grounds

[Diamond_Jim 12,359]

3 minutes ago, FireInTheBelly said:

Does this help?

Current Situation
Club	F	A	%
NMFC North Melbourne	1893	1759	107.6
MELB Melbourne	1842	1758	104.8
Potential 5 goal margin scorelines
Melbourne	31	61	91	121	151	181	211
Carlton	1	31	61	91	121	151	181
New percentage	106.48	106.37	106.27	106.17	106.07	105.97	105.88

 

Quite clearly, the higher the score - the lower the percentage gain.

Excellent and clear post

The 91 to 61 scoreline is not unreasonable on a slightly wet windy day.

I suspect the magic figure is around 105 to 60 and we are equal with North on percentage,

[bing181 8,943]

25 minutes ago, deanox said:

IF we have a better percentage than north at the end of this round then we cannot miss the 8 on percentage.  

As Sue said, we still can. Percentages are not determined by difference but by a ratio. We could win and have our percentage go down, and lose and have it go up.

The point I guess is that if you have a percentage of 105%, your percentage will only stay the same if you beat your opponents by the same winning average, i.e. 5% (e.g. 105 to 100). If you win by a percentage lower than that, say 1% (101 to 100), then your percentage will go down, (and vice versa).

How much will depend on totals for/against, which pretty much depends on how far we are into the season. At this stage, high/low scores don't make much difference, but they'll still make some difference.

Edited August 20, 2016 by bing181

[Satyriconhome 10,339]

I think I have got it now

If we set off for Simmonds Stadium at 100% speed and the crowd average percentile is reasonable and Norths take on the name of an American rapper, we may make the finals, give or take a percent or two?

[P-man 13,366]

Scully's military style haircut matches his persona perfectly.

[Satyriconhome 10,339]

Just now, P-man said:

Scully's military style haircut matches his persona perfectly.

Which is?......he left the trench when it was under the most severe fire and ran, not very military, (unless you were an Argentinian conscript during the Falklands War)

[Chook 14,998]

1 minute ago, P-man said:

Scully's military style haircut matches his persona perfectly.

How does such a corpulent monster of a human being like Phil Scully produce a progeny that is quite clearly a robot with no apparent vices whatsoever?

[FireInTheBennelly 4,060]

4 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Excellent and clear post

The 91 to 61 scoreline is not unreasonable on a slightly wet windy day.

I suspect the magic figure is around 105 to 60 and we are equal with North on percentage,

Some quick maths tells me if we were to score our season average of 87 points, to get near the Roos %age of 107.6, we'd need to restrict Carlton to roughly 35 points.

[Mazer Rackham 14,971]

6 minutes ago, Satyriconhome said:

I think I have got it now

If we set off for Simmonds Stadium at 100% speed and the crowd average percentile is reasonable and Norths take on the name of an American rapper, we may make the finals, give or take a percent or two?

African or European percentage?

[P-man 13,366]

3 minutes ago, Satyriconhome said:

Which is?......he left the trench when it was under the most severe fire and ran, not very military, (unless you were an Argentinian conscript during the Falklands War)

Straight laced and dull.

[Chook 14,998]

Just now, Ted Fidge said:

African or European percentage?

African percentage maybe, but not European percentage, that's my point.

[FireInTheBennelly 4,060]

1 minute ago, Chook said:

African percentage maybe, but not European percentage, that's my point.

We need goals, not points

[Deestroy All 14,262]

[Red and Bluebeard 2,075]

13 minutes ago, Satyriconhome said:

I think I have got it now

If we set off for Simmonds Stadium at 100% speed and the crowd average percentile is reasonable and Norths take on the name of an American rapper, we may make the finals, give or take a percent or two?

You left out the ritual sacrifice of a chook on the way ...

[Ethan Tremblay 30,025]

6 minutes ago, P-man said:

Straight laced and dull.

That hurts P-man, that.hurts.

[Red and Bluebeard 2,075]

9 minutes ago, Ted Fidge said:

African or European percentage?

Metric

[sue 9,006]

6 minutes ago, FireInTheBelly said:

Does this help?

Current Situation
Club	F	A	%
NMFC North Melbourne	1893	1759	107.6
MELB Melbourne	1842	1758	104.8
Potential 5 goal margin scorelines
Melbourne	31	61	91	121	151	181	211
Carlton	1	31	61	91	121	151	181
New percentage	106.48	106.37	106.27	106.17	106.07	105.97	105.88

 

Quite clearly, the higher the score - the lower the percentage gain.

Conclusion is true, but I go further and say that for extremely high scores your percentage can go down even if you win.

Let's say we beat Carlton 51 to 1, then our percentage after tomorrow is 107.6.  Then we beat Geelong by 120 to 119.  Total for =(1893+120)  total against =(1759+119), so percentage becomes (1893+120)  / (1759+119) = 107.2  It's gone down (!) and we miss the finals unless North's falls even further.  But if they lose by 1 point in a low scoring match say 40 points to 41, then their % becomes 1.074.  

I have used an extreme example for the Carlton match, but it will hold even truer for the other scorelines above.  It is possible to have the same % as North tomorrow or better, and also beat Geelong and we still don't get into the finals.  We need to win big in low scoring matches and we want North to lose big in high scoring matches. 

[deeflog 679]

1 hour ago, Petraccattack said:

Its round 22 and what a joy this is to see Demonland posters arguing about how much we need to win by to make up % to make the finals , instead of arguing about why we are still such a bad club we after another horrific end to a season.  Let the good times roll.

 

Couldn't agree more

[Adam The God 29,381]

We haven't really pummeled a team this year except the Suns the first time. Wouldn't that be wonderful tomorrow? Would keep it very simple next week. Can't see it happening though.

[Pates 9,625]

I guess this simply goes back to what Roos was saying earlier in the week. We stay focused on what we can control. Let's beat Carlton and beat them into the ground, come next week we can assess it then. 

Swans got the win over North so we're still alive. 

[Satyriconhome 10,339]

5 minutes ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

That hurts P-man, that.hurts.

Hurts.....[censored] I did 15 years in the military, straight laced er no and dull definitely er no

[Adam The God 29,381]

Isn't Jeremy Cameron a lazy player. Bit full of himself I think. He goes to ground too easily and consistently takes the easy option.

[FireInTheBennelly 4,060]

3 minutes ago, sue said:

Conclusion is true, but I go further and say that for extremely high scores your percentage can go down even if you win.

Let's say we beat Carlton 51 to 1, then our percentage after tomorrow is 107.6.  Then we beat Geelong by 120 to 119.  Total for =(1893+120)  total against =(1759+119), so percentage becomes (1893+120)  / (1759+119) = 107.2  It's gone down (!) and we miss the finals unless North's falls even further.  But if they lose by 1 point in a low scoring match say 40 points to 41, then their % becomes 1.074.  

I have used an extreme example for the Carlton match, but it will hold even truer for the other scorelines above.  It is possible to have the same % as North tomorrow or better, and also beat Geelong and we still don't get into the finals.  We need to win big in low scoring matches and we want North to lose big in high scoring matches. 

Exactly. Essentially if you win a game with a lower percentage than your current overall season percentage - it will decrease. If you win a game with a higher percentage than your current overall season percentage - it will increase.

[Nasher 33,607]

28 minutes ago, FireInTheBelly said:

Does this help?

Current Situation
Club	F	A	%
NMFC North Melbourne	1893	1759	107.6
MELB Melbourne	1842	1758	104.8
Potential 5 goal margin scorelines
Melbourne	31	61	91	121	151	181	211
Carlton	1	31	61	91	121	151	181
New percentage	106.48	106.37	106.27	106.17	106.07	105.97	105.88

 

Quite clearly, the higher the score - the lower the percentage gain.

Yes - it's a proportion of total score, hence 'percentage'.  Nice illustration - makes the point very clear.  Also nice to know that it's really only the first three of those outcomes, and possibly the fourth, that are really plausible, and they all make a good dent in the percentage diff between us and North.   

So much at stake in this game that it's ridiculous.  So glad that we're still in the hunt, it would have been a real let down if the Swans had failed today.  We play twice now before North play their game against GWS, so the ball is well and truly in our court.  

[sue 9,006]

6 minutes ago, FireInTheBelly said:

Exactly. Essentially if you win a game with a lower percentage than your current overall season percentage - it will decrease. If you win a game with a higher percentage than your current overall season percentage - it will increase.

Exactly.  Basic algebra.

[deanox 9,662]

45 minutes ago, sue said:

I don't think that is right.   North can lose without their percentage falling much (eg lose 2 points to 1 point).  But if we beat Geelong by 1 point in a high scoring game, then our percentage goes down from wherever it is after tomorrow.  Percentage can go down even if you win. You will have noticed this in round 2 of most seasons. The team that is on top after round 1 finds it's percentage heading down even when it WINS  the next week.

Edit to fix lose to WIN

 

Yeah OK, sorry cannot is the wrong word! But largely if our percentage is in front this week and results fall our way north will need the perfect set of circumstances involving margins and high/low scoring games to lose less percentage than we do and thus keep their spot. 

I acknowledge it is possible but it is so far fetched it is significantly unlikely!

 

But I'm glad at least a few people here understand enough maths for these discussions!

Edited August 20, 2016 by deanox